U.S. patent number 7,553,232 [Application Number 10/711,316] was granted by the patent office on 2009-06-30 for system and method for predicting results of chance events over a user-selected number of events.
This patent grant is currently assigned to International Business Machines Corporation. Invention is credited to Laurence E. Cunningham, Edward E. Kelley.
United States Patent |
7,553,232 |
Kelley , et al. |
June 30, 2009 |
System and method for predicting results of chance events over a
user-selected number of events
Abstract
A method, a system, and a recording medium are provided herein
by which a user selects a number of a plurality of events for which
an outcome of each event is not known to the user. A predicted
result is then automatically indicated to the user based on a
probability that a predetermined outcome will occur among the
user-selected number of events.
Inventors: |
Kelley; Edward E. (Wappingers
Falls, NY), Cunningham; Laurence E. (Lane Cove,
AU) |
Assignee: |
International Business Machines
Corporation (Armonk, NY)
|
Family
ID: |
36034765 |
Appl.
No.: |
10/711,316 |
Filed: |
September 10, 2004 |
Prior Publication Data
|
|
|
|
Document
Identifier |
Publication Date |
|
US 20060058094 A1 |
Mar 16, 2006 |
|
Current U.S.
Class: |
463/22; 463/16;
463/21; 463/25 |
Current CPC
Class: |
G07F
17/32 (20130101); G07F 17/3227 (20130101) |
Current International
Class: |
A63F
9/24 (20060101); A63F 13/00 (20060101) |
Field of
Search: |
;463/16-22,4,6,25-28 |
References Cited
[Referenced By]
U.S. Patent Documents
Foreign Patent Documents
Primary Examiner: Hotaling, II; John M
Assistant Examiner: Hylinski; Steven J.
Attorney, Agent or Firm: Anderson; Jay Kaschak; Ron Neff;
Daryl
Claims
What is claimed is:
1. A method, comprising: (a) displaying a plurality of sequentially
ordered events by a machine and permitting a player to select a
range including a fewer number of the sequentially ordered events
from among the displayed plurality of sequentially ordered events,
for each event of which an outcome is determined at least partly by
chance and is as yet not known to the player; (b) prior to
determining actual outcomes of the events, simulating the outcomes
of each of the sequentially ordered events in the range by the
machine based on a probability that a predetermined outcome will
occur and automatically indicating by the machine to the player
predicted winnings based on a (j) first (i=1)th predicted result of
simulating the outcome of a first (i=1)th one of the events, and,
(jj) for each of the plurality of events from a second (i=2)th
event to an nth (i=n) event, an ith predicted result of simulating
the outcome of an ith event accumulated with the (i-1)th result,
wherein the (i-1)th result simulates the outcome of an (i-1)th
event accumulated with any (i-2)th result, if any (i-2)th result
exists; (c) permitting the player to select one of the predicted
results from among the predicted first through nth results
indicated by the machine; (d) indicating by the machine that an
account is credited for the player with predicted winnings
according to the player-selected predicted result; (e) permitting
the player by the machine to utilize the predicted winnings to
determine actual outcomes of at least some of the events and
adjusting an amount in the account based on the actual outcomes;
and (f) after the actual outcomes of a minimum number of the events
have been determined, permitting the player by the machine to
retain the adjusted amount in the account as actual winnings.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein step (f) includes
decreasing a probability that the predetermined outcome will occur
per each individual event until the actual outcomes of at least a
minimum number of the events have been determined.
3. The method as claimed in claim 1, further comprising collecting
a payment from the player prior to the step of automatically
indicating the predicted results to the player.
4. The method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the number of the
plurality of events is selected by the player and the amount of the
payment collected from the player varies according to the selected
number of events.
5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the time sequentially
ordered events occur in the player playing of one or more games of
chance.
6. The method as claimed in claim 1, further comprising providing
the account to the player by an operator of the one or more games
of chance, and permitting the player to withdraw the actual
winnings from the account after the minimum number of events have
occurred.
7. The method as claimed in claim 6, wherein the one or more games
of chance are provided by an operator of a casino and the player is
a player with respect to the casino.
8. The method as claimed in claim 7, wherein the one or more games
of chance are played on a slot machine of the casino.
9. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the predicted first
through nth results are indicated graphically to the player.
10. A machine operable to perform a method, the method including
the steps of: (a) displaying a plurality of sequentially ordered
events by the machine and permitting a player to select a range
including a fewer number of the sequentially ordered events from
among the displayed plurality of sequentially ordered events, for
each event of which an outcome is determined at least partly by
chance and is as yet not known to the player; (b) prior to
determining actual outcomes of the events, simulating the outcomes
of each of the sequentially ordered events in the range by the
machine based on a probability that a predetermined outcome will
occur and automatically indicating by the machine to the player
predicted winnings based on a (j) first (i=1)th predicted result of
simulating the outcome of a first (i=1)th one of the events, and,
(jj) for each of the plurality of events from a second (i=2)th
event to an nth (i=n) event, an ith predicted result of simulating
the outcome of an ith event accumulated with the (i-1)th result,
wherein the (i-1)th result simulates the outcome of an (i-1)th
event accumulated with any (i-2)th result, if any (i-2)th result
exists; (c) permitting the player to select one of the predicted
results from among the predicted first through nth results
indicated by the machine; (d) indicating by the machine that an
account is credited for the player with predicted winnings
according to the player-selected predicted result; (e) permitting
the player to utilize the predicted winnings in exchange for
determining actual outcomes of at least some of the events and
adjusting an amount in the account based on the actual outcomes;
and (f) after the actual outcomes of a minimum number of the events
have been determined, permitting the player to retain the adjusted
amount in the account as actual winnings.
11. The system as claimed in claim 10, wherein the system is
further operable, upon crediting the account, to decrease a
probability that the predetermined outcome will occur per each
individual event until at least the actual outcomes of the minimum
number of events have been determined.
12. The system as claimed in claim 10, wherein the system is
further operable to provide the account to the player from an
operator of one or more games of chance, and permit the player to
withdraw the actual winnings from the account after the actual
outcomes of the minimum number of events have been determined.
13. The system as claimed in claim 12 wherein the device includes a
slot machine.
14. The system as claimed in claim 10, wherein the device includes
a computing device, a server or a slot machine.
15. A recording medium having computer-readable instructions
recorded thereon, the instructions being executable by machine to
perform a method including the steps of: (a) displaying a plurality
of sequentially ordered events by a machine and permitting a player
to select a range including a fewer number of the sequentially
ordered events from among the displayed plurality of sequentially
ordered events, for each event of which an outcome is determined at
least partly by chance and is as yet not known to the player; (b)
prior to determining actual outcomes of the events, simulating the
outcomes of each of the sequentially ordered events in the range by
the machine based on a probability that a predetermined outcome
will occur and automatically indicating by the machine to the
player predicted winnings based on a (j) first (i=1)th predicted
result of simulating the outcome of a first (i=1)th one of the
events, and, (jj) for each of the plurality of events from a second
(i=2)th event to an nth (i=n) event, an ith predicted result of
simulating the outcome of an ith event accumulated with the (i-1)th
result, wherein the (i-1)th result simulates the outcome of an
(i-1)th event accumulated with any (i-2)th result, if any (i-2)th
result exists; (c) permitting the player to select one of the
predicted results from among the predicted first through nth
results indicated by the machine (d) indicating by the machine that
an account is credited for the player with predicted winnings
according to the player-selected predicted result; (e) permitting
the player to utilize the predicted winnings in exchange for
determining actual outcomes of at least some of the events and
adjusting an amount in the account based on the actual outcomes;
and (f) after the actual outcomes of a minimum number of the events
have been determined, permitting the player to retain the adjusted
amount in the account as actual winnings.
16. The recording medium as claimed in claim 15, wherein said
method further comprises decreasing a probability of the occurrence
of the predetermined outcome per each individual event until the
actual outcomes of at least the minimum number of events have been
determined.
Description
BACKGROUND OF INVENTION
The invention relates to event outcome prediction systems, and more
specifically to a system and method for predicting and indicating
results of chance events over a user-selected number of events.
Probability theory is applicable to all branches of science.
Probability and the related field of statistics have long been used
to predict the outcomes of events, whether the events are to occur
in the future, or the events occurred in the past, but with still
undetermined outcomes. In the past, probabilities were calculated
by persons skilled in mathematics, using no tools to perform the
calculations other than paper and pencil. Recently, the advent of
computers has allowed probability and statistics to be used more
widely than before because of the ease with which such calculations
can now be performed. Recently, there has been much interest in
automated systems and processes that predict the outcomes of events
that are determined or influenced by chance.
However, the particular tasks to which probability theory is
applied and the way it is applied are not ordinary problems to be
solved. Of particular interest is the ability to calculate the
probability that a predetermined outcome will occur among a
plurality of randomly determined outcomes of a plurality of events.
The probability that an event will result in a predetermined
outcome can be expressed as a fraction or decimal value between 0
and 1, where 0 indicates no probability that the predetermined
outcome will occur, and 1 indicates the opposite; i.e., 100%
probability that the predetermined outcome will occur. For example,
when a pair of dice is rolled the likelihood that the dice will
land with the number four appearing on the top face of at least one
of the dice can be calculated as a fraction relating the
predetermined outcome to the set of all possible outcomes. For each
die, since the number four is one of six different possible
outcomes, the probability is 1/6, i.e., 0.167. However, since two
dice are rolled, and each roll of a die is an independent event,
the probability that a four appears on the top face of the second
die is also 1/6, i.e., 0.167. When the rolls of the two dice are
considered together, the probability of a four appearing on the top
face of at least one of the dice is simply the added probabilities
that a four will appear on each one of the dice, namely:
P=0.167+0.167=0.333, which is equivalent to the fraction 1/3. On
the other hand, if one desires instead to determine the probability
that a four appears on the top faces of both dice when rolled, the
problem now requires that the calculated probability of the four
appearing on the first die, i.e., 0.167, be multiplied by the
calculated probability that the four appears on the second die,
i.e., 0.167, since it is desired to determine that subset of the
outcomes in which both the first and second dice present the number
four on the top face. Thus, the probability that the number four
appears on the top faces of both of the dice when the pair of dice
is rolled becomes 0.167.times.0.167=0.028, which is equivalent to
the fraction 1/36.
Sometimes, some outcomes of an event occur with greater frequency
than others. For example, among the various combinations of numbers
which can occur upon rolling a pair of dice, the number seven
occurs most frequently, because the number seven can be produced by
the most number of combinations. Specifically, seven is produced by
six combinations appearing on the dice, i.e., 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3,
5+2, and 6+1. However, other numbers occur less frequently on a
roll of the dice because they are produced by only one or a few
combinations. For example, the numbers two and twelve are produced
only by the dice combinations 1+1, and 6+6, respectively.
Certainly, as the number of events increases and the number of
different combinations of events increases that can produce a
particular outcome, it becomes more difficult to estimate the
likelihood of a desired result from a plurality of events whose
outcomes are randomly determined. Particularly, with respect to
events that are at least influenced by chance, e.g., results of an
investment portfolio over a period of time, it would be desirable
to indicate to a user the predicted results of a particular
strategy, given assumptions concerning the chances of succeeding,
i.e., an assessment of the investment risks.
SUMMARY OF INVENTION
According to an aspect of the invention, a method is provided by
which a user selects a number of a plurality of events for which an
outcome of each event is not known to the user. A predicted result
is then automatically indicated to the user based on a probability
of a predetermined outcome occurring among the user-selected number
of events.
According to a preferred aspect of the invention, the user is
permitted to select a time point in a future sequence of the events
at which a desirable result is predicted. An account for the user
is credited with a first amount according to the desirable result
selected by the user. The user is then permitted to utilize the
first amount for determining outcomes of events. After a minimum
number of events have occurred, the user is permitted to utilize a
second amount in the account, remaining from the first amount, for
a purpose other than determining outcomes of events, e.g., to
withdraw the second amount as cash.
According to yet another aspect of the invention, a system is
provided which is operable to permit a user to select a number of
events for which an outcome is not known to the user. The system is
further operable to automatically indicate a predicted result to
the user based on a probability of a predetermined outcome among
the user-selected number of events.
According to yet another aspect of the invention, a recording
medium is provided having instructions recorded thereon for
performing a method, wherein the method allows a user to select a
number of events for which the outcome is not known to the user. A
predicted result is automatically indicated to the user based on a
probability of occurrence of a predetermined outcome among the
user-selected number of events.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS
FIG. 1 is a flow chart illustrating a method according to a first
embodiment of the invention.
FIGS. 2 and 3 are respective portions of a flow chart illustrating
a method according to a second embodiment of the invention.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
Accordingly, in the embodiments of the invention described herein,
a method is provided for indicating to a user a representation of
the future, taking into account the results of outcomes of events
at least partly determined by chance. In particular embodiments of
the invention, the user is permitted to select for display the
outcomes of a range of events, e.g., a set of events between two
points in time, for which a desirable result is achieved.
Particularly for certain applications, e.g., in the provision of
games and/or running of other nondeterministic events, such as
horse races, etc., by a casino or other facility, an embodiment of
the invention displays numerically and/or graphically, the results
of events in a way which better informs the user about the nature
of a bet he may wish to place. Accordingly, for one embodiment of
the invention, it would be desirable for a casino or other gaming
facility to allow a player to select a particular range of events
and be provided a set of predicted results according to the chances
that desired predetermined outcomes appear for the selected set of
events.
The embodiments of the invention described herein are applicable to
predicting the results of chance events in a variety of fields. A
method according to an embodiment of the invention is illustrated
in FIG. 1. As shown therein, a starting point in such method is
provided at block 100. At block 101, the user is asked whether he
wishes to see a prediction of the outcomes of a set of events, the
events being at least partly determined by chance. In one
embodiment, the set of events are a large number of events which
share a common theme. For example, the set of events can be the
future rates of returns on particular types of investments, e.g,
for investment portfolio planning, as well as other related events
such as the future rate of inflation and applicable future tax
rates. As outcomes of the events, the various possible future rates
of returns, future inflation rates, and future tax rates are
provided, together with an assessment as to the likelihood that
each particular rate will occur. In another example, the set of
events can be attempts at finding a valuable underground mineral
deposit, or discovering a new pharmaceutical compound, given a set
of inputs and assumptions which determine the probability of
success on any given attempt. While chance events affecting the
success of an investment portfolio are generally ordered
sequentially in time, the chance events relating to the discovery
of a mineral deposit or pharmaceutical compound might not be. For
example, in the case of exploring for a mineral deposit, chance
events may be ordered spatially rather than by time, like points on
a map by which successful attempts permit one to home in on the
location of a sought after mineral deposit.
If the user answers "No" at block 101, at block 105, the user
watches for chance events to unfold as they occur. However, when
the user answers "Yes" at block 101, the user is provided the
results of simulating the occurrence of the chance events in a way
which reflects the probabilities of the various outcomes of the set
of events. In one embodiment, the results are plotted graphically
so that the user is given a picture at each relevant point, e.g.,
point in time, or point in space, of the effect of chance events on
the outcome. Such graphical plot includes points at which a number
of "bad outcomes" of events negatively affects the overall result,
as well as other points at which a number of "good outcomes" of
events produces a desirable result. At block 102, the user is given
an opportunity to select from the simulated results a subset of the
chance events which produce a result desirable to the user.
Generally, this involves the user selecting a range of events,
especially a time range for time sequentially ordered events, in
which results are favorable. For example, in one embodiment, the
user is given a chance to select two points in time and view the
results possible for chance events occurring between the two points
in time. Thus, the user who uses the tool to predict the success of
an investment portfolio can select to display results for
particular periods of time in which extra needs are present, e.g.,
when a child leaves home for college, or when retirement looms on
the horizon. In another embodiment in which a mineral deposit is
sought after, the results are displayed in spatial relation to each
other for a selected number of attempts.
Thereafter, at block 103, the results of the particular selected
events are displayed to the user. At block 106, it is then
determined whether the user has finished utilizing the event
outcome prediction method according to the invention. If the user
indicates "Yes", the method concludes, as shown at 107. However, if
the user has not finished, the method continues again from block
101, as described above.
A particular embodiment of the invention is applied to a slot
machine of a casino for the purpose of indicating to the player the
chances that a winning result will occur in the future. In one
embodiment of the invention, the method is implemented by a
computing device or program in the slot machine, or through a
separate unit in communication with the slot machine, such as a
separate server or a smart card. Playing a slot machine requires no
particular skills and the chance of a winning result is determined
entirely randomly. While each casino generally has several
different types of slot machines available to players, there is no
way for the casino to differentiate its own slot machines made by
one manufacturer from those at another casino which are made by the
same manufacturer. Slot machines that are currently operated in
various casinos provide little information to help the player favor
one slot machine over another. A particular casino, interested in
differentiating itself from competitors, can provide slot machines
according to this embodiment of the invention to increase the
attraction of its slot machines.
According to this embodiment of the invention, players are provided
a way to favor the slot machines of one casino over those of other
casinos by allowing the player, for example, for a fee, a choice of
seeing predicted future results of playing the slot machine. In a
particular embodiment, the player is allowed to select a future
point in time and have an account credited with winnings that he
would have obtained by playing up to that point in time. The player
may then utilize the "winnings" for additional play at the slot
machine. At the same time, steps are taken to assure that the
casino maintains its winning advantage prior to the player being
able to utilize the winnings for purposes other than additional
play.
FIGS. 2 and 3 are a flow chart illustrating an embodiment of the
invention as applied to a slot machine. In FIG. 2, the start of the
game on the slot machine is indicated at 200. At block 201, the
player is given an option of "seeing into the future", i.e., of
predicting the results of future game play. If the player decides
"No", the player then plays the regular game, as indicated at block
205. Regular game play then proceeds until block 206, at which the
player can decide to stop and exit game play (block 207).
Alternatively, the player can decide to continue playing, which
returns the player to decision block 201. Thus, whenever the player
decides to end regular game play, but has not decided yet to end
play altogether, the player is given the option of either selecting
to play another regular game or predicting the results of future
game play.
On the other hand, at the beginning of game play and at other times
during game play, the player is given an option of seeing predicted
future game results. Here, the player is given a choice to "select
how far into the future," i.e., to select a range of time in for
obtaining predicted results of future game play. When the predicted
results are to be displayed by time, they will be based on an
assumption that the player makes a given number of attempts at
success per unit time. Here, the player may decide to select a
shorter or longer range of time, depending upon how much time the
player wishes to spend at the casino and how must money the player
wishes to place at risk per each attempt at success in the
game.
The program or interface is desirably customized in relation to the
usage and preferences of the casino, the player, and perhaps, the
type of service selected. For example, different fee structures can
be established and selected by the player and the casino to provide
more or less options, and to present particular points in time for
selection by the player. For example, one option could allow the
player to choose a certain point in time, such as the actual time
that is 20 minutes from the present. Alternatively, another option
could allow the player to select a point in time indirectly by
selecting the number of attempts at success to be made, e.g., by
seeing predicted results for a point in time at which 20 attempts
at success have been made.
In particular embodiments, the player must choose to see simulated
results within a certain time limit, for example, 20 minutes, or
within a maximum number, e.g., 50 attempts at success. Placing
limits on the time or number of attempts at success to be displayed
for the game may help to keep the game interesting by preserving
the more distant results of future play unknown.
At block 203, a payment is collected from the player in accordance
with the selection, e.g., by insertion of additional coins or
tokens, or perhaps payments from a credit or debit card into the
slot machine. In return, the slot machine or other cooperating
apparatus attached to the slot machine displays the simulated,
i.e., predicted results of continued play on the slot machine to
the player. In one embodiment, a graph showing the results of "n"
attempts at success is displayed to the player. Such results
display can be provided, for example, by generating random numbers
biased to duplicate a game, while preserving the advantage to the
casino. A graph would show the position of the player with respect
to the casino, in terms of the money wagered, and the money lost or
gained for every attempt at success, in the predicted results of
future play on the slot machine.
At block 204, the player is asked whether he wishes to select a
point in time, e.g., a point in time when the player would be most
ahead of the casino, and then have the money credited to him. If
the player decides "No", i.e., decides not to take this option, at
block 206 the player is asked whether he wants to end the game. If
the player does not want to end, but wants to continue, the method
continues again at block 201 as before. However, if the player does
want to end the game now, game play then exits at block 207.
On the other hand, when the player decides to select a point in
time, the method continues at block 300 of FIG. 3. As shown in FIG.
3, the player selects one or more points in time at which a
desirable result is obtained. For example, a point in simulated
future game play is selected at which the player is ahead of the
casino by 30%. At block 301, the player can then choose to have the
"winnings" of the simulated game play credited to an account held
by the casino for the player. The "winnings" are then deposited
into the player's account. However, while the "winnings" appear in
the player's account now, the player is not able to access and
withdraw money just yet against the "winnings".
As further shown at block 303, since the customer is now playing
with the casino's money, a minimum number of events (e.g., the
number of attempts made at winning) must pass before the player is
allowed to collect winnings. Thus, at block 303, a determination is
made whether the player has made the sufficient number of attempts
at success after being credited with the "winnings", and if the
player has not, the player must continue play before he can
withdraw the amount remaining from the credited winnings, as shown
at block 304. Optionally, as shown at 302, the probability of
winning on any particular event is reduced, i.e., the chance of
winning on any one attempt on the slot machine is decreased from
what it was before. In such embodiment, the chance of winning is
reduced in accordance with the amount of winnings that are credited
to the user's account and how many additional attempts to win will
be required before the user can access the credited winnings for
other purposes, e.g., to withdraw what remains of the credited
winnings from the user's account. The purpose of temporarily
decreasing the player's chance of winning and requiring a minimum
number of attempts is to maintain the advantage held by the casino
at a level reflecting the advantage held by the casino for the
original game.
Finally, once the minimum number of events has passed, the answer
at decision block 303 becomes "Yes". Accordingly, as shown at block
305, the player is now permitted to withdraw the part remaining
from the credited winnings in the account for a different purpose,
for example, as regular money that to be spent in whatever manner
the player chooses.
Alternatively, without decreasing the chance of winning on each
individual game attempt, the player can be given the option of
playing for an even longer period of time, i.e., for a greater
number of attempts to win, before being permitted to withdraw the
remaining part of the previously credited winnings. This option may
be advantageous for the casino to offer during slow periods, in
order to attract players having smaller amounts of money to the
game. However, in very busy periods, the casino may choose not to
provide an option for the player to play longer according to the
original chance of winning, but instead offer only the decreased
chance of winning. In one embodiment, the decision of whether to
offer the option of playing according to the original chance of
winning and require a greater number of play attempts is made
automatically in view of the number of slot machines available at
the particular point in time, the particular time of day (e.g.,
from which a prediction is made concerning the number of players
who are expected to play shortly), and any other relevant factors
which may influence the demand for playing the particular type of
slot machine on the particular day.
While the invention has been described in accordance with certain
preferred embodiments thereof, those skilled in the art will
understand the many modifications and enhancements which can be
made thereto without departing from the true scope and spirit of
the invention, which is limited only by the claims appended
below.
* * * * *