U.S. patent application number 17/833197 was filed with the patent office on 2022-09-22 for software portfolio management system and method.
This patent application is currently assigned to RTCONFIDENCE, INC.. The applicant listed for this patent is RTCONFIDENCE, INC.. Invention is credited to Parvaneh Alavi, Michael M. Bissonette, Thomas Cocotis, David Maeschen, Craig Trivelpiece.
Application Number | 20220300281 17/833197 |
Document ID | / |
Family ID | 1000006379649 |
Filed Date | 2022-09-22 |
United States Patent
Application |
20220300281 |
Kind Code |
A1 |
Bissonette; Michael M. ; et
al. |
September 22, 2022 |
SOFTWARE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AND METHOD
Abstract
A software-based product development portfolio management system
and method that may be implemented using a software as a service
(SaaS) model that allows users (based on access rights) to: create
and update valid project plans using integrated management tools
and techniques, view near-real-time project data and metrics; 5
enable lean project management; send messages to other users via
system alerts and/or e-mails and receive messages/alerts from other
SPM System users; input data; establish and change organizational
governance guidelines; and approve, conditionally approve or reject
decisions.
Inventors: |
Bissonette; Michael M.;
(Irvine, CA) ; Cocotis; Thomas; (Irvine, CA)
; Trivelpiece; Craig; (Irvine, CA) ; Maeschen;
David; (Irvine, CA) ; Alavi; Parvaneh;
(Irvine, CA) |
|
Applicant: |
Name |
City |
State |
Country |
Type |
RTCONFIDENCE, INC. |
IRVINCE |
CA |
US |
|
|
Assignee: |
RTCONFIDENCE, INC.
IRVINE
CA
|
Family ID: |
1000006379649 |
Appl. No.: |
17/833197 |
Filed: |
June 6, 2022 |
Related U.S. Patent Documents
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Application
Number |
Filing Date |
Patent Number |
|
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16741648 |
Jan 13, 2020 |
11354121 |
|
|
17833197 |
|
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62791526 |
Jan 11, 2019 |
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Current U.S.
Class: |
1/1 |
Current CPC
Class: |
G06Q 10/063118 20130101;
G06F 9/453 20180201; G06Q 10/067 20130101; G06Q 10/06313 20130101;
G06Q 10/10 20130101; G06F 8/77 20130101; G06Q 10/0639 20130101;
G06Q 10/06314 20130101; G06Q 10/0635 20130101; G06Q 10/06
20130101 |
International
Class: |
G06F 8/77 20060101
G06F008/77; G06F 9/451 20060101 G06F009/451; G06Q 10/06 20060101
G06Q010/06 |
Claims
1. A software project management system, comprising: a computer
system having a processor and memory and a plurality of lines of
instructions that are configured to: retrieve an integrated master
schedule (IMS) project having a plurality of tasks wherein each
task has a duration and one or more parameters of the task and
wherein an association exists between two or more tasks in the IMS
project; insert a completion milestone probability distribution
function (PDF) of a child IMS into the IMS project to generate an
updated IMS with child IMS rolled up; and store the updated
IMS.
2. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor is further
configured to update, using a project progress update wizard
executed by the processor, a stored IMS.
3. The system of claim 1, wherein the IMS project is one of a risk
adjusted IMS and a IMS that is not risk adjusted.
4. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor is further
configured to execute a project progress update wizard to receive
one or more pieces of update data for the IMS project,
automatically generate a new report for the IMS project based on
the one or more pieces of update data and automatically update a
duration for at least one task of the IMS project based on the one
or more pieces of update data.
5. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor is further
configured to execute a probability distribution wizard to
determine an overall project percent confidence and to display the
IMS project with the duration of at least one task adjusted based
on the overall project percent confidence.
6. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor is further
configured to represent the child IMS as a child task in the
retrieved IMS project.
7. The system of claim 6, wherein the child IMS is a supply chain
partner IMS.
8. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor is further
configured to generate customized home page for each user, the
customized home page displaying the dashboard for the user.
9. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor is further
configured to securely authorize each user of the system based on
an authorization matrix.
10. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor is further
configured to generate a high risk of resource over allocation
curve based on the resource allocation probability risk.
11. The system of claim 22, wherein the processor is further
configured to probabilistically maximize allocation benefits using
one or more of automatic adjustment of one or more of task ordering
and task timing and manual adjustment of one or more of task
ordering and task timing.
12. A software project management method, comprising: retrieving an
integrated master schedule (IMS) project having a plurality of
tasks wherein each task has a duration and one or more parameters
of the task and wherein an association exists between two or more
tasks in the IMS project; inserting a completion milestone
probability distribution function (PDF) of a child IMS into the IMS
project to generate an updated IMS with child IMS rolled up; and
storing the updated IMS.
13. The method of claim 12 further comprising setting, using a
project baseline wizard, one or more baselines for the retrieved
IMS and the child IMS.
14. The method of claim 12, wherein the IMS project is one of a
risk adjusted IMS and a IMS that is not risk adjusted.
15. The method of claim 12 further comprising receiving one or more
pieces of update data for the project, automatically generating a
new report for the IMS project based on the one or more pieces of
update data and automatically updating a duration for at least one
task of the IMS project based on the one or more pieces of update
data.
16. The method of claim 12 further comprising executing a
probability distribution wizard to determine an overall project
percent confidence; and displaying the IMS project with the
duration of at least one task adjusted based on the overall project
percent confidence.
17. The method of claim 12, wherein integrating a child IMS into
the retrieved IMS further comprises representing the child IMS as a
child task in the retrieved IMS project.
18. The method of claim 17, wherein the child IMS is a supply chain
partner IMS.
19. The method of claim 12 further comprising generating a
customized home page for each user, the customized home page
displaying the dashboard for the user.
20. The method of claim 12 further comprising generating, using an
earned schedule wizard, one or more different earned value
management reports.
21. The method of claim 12 further comprising securely authorizing
each user of the system based on an authorization matrix.
22. The method of claim 12, further comprising generating a high
risk of resource over allocation curve based on the resource
allocation probability risk.
23. The method of claim 22, wherein probabilistically maximize
allocation benefits further comprises probabilistically maximize
allocation benefits using one or more of automatic adjustment of
one or more of task ordering and task timing and manual adjustment
of one or more of task ordering and task timing.
Description
RELATED APPLICATIONS
[0001] This application is a continuation of U.S. application Ser.
No. 16/741,648, filed Jan. 13, 2020 which claims the benefit of
U.S. Provisional Application No. 62/791,526, filed Jan. 11, 2019,
both of which are incorporated herein by reference.
FIELD
[0002] The disclosure relates generally to a software portfolio
management system and in particular to a Software as a Service
(SaaS) portfolio management system.
BACKGROUND
[0003] There is a need for portfolio and/or project management
systems which embody online, real-time (or technically,
near-real-time, due to the inherent processing system latencies and
approvals associated with displaying certain data) hierarchical
status reporting that is consistent for reporting critical project
data and metrics. The ideal solution provides for the need of all
stakeholders, as denoted below.
[0004] Executives (and portfolio managers) want: visual data that
instantly points to project concerns; to review (and believe)
confidence levels for meeting key project constraints (i.e.
adherence to budgets and/or compliance with scheduled product
deliveries) rather than a list of individual risks which is
difficult to digest and derive overall project confidence; to know
that project development is aggressive (working toward "doing more
with less"), yet still achievable--so that the organization can
more effectively meet strategic goals and objectives (and operating
plan commitments); and all levels of employees to work at peak
performance, with minimal waste, continuously improving, within a
positive work environment.
[0005] Functional managers (especially in matrix organizations)
want: consistency between projects tools and techniques (providing
an easier understanding of project metrics which affect them);
user-friendly tools and techniques (less personnel training);
real-time access to project status for all projects their group
supports; the ability to automatically roll-up resource
supply/demand data, per project, by resource (e.g. human,
equipment, facilities, etc.) type; to ensure that they have a say
in critical project decision making that they have a vested
interest in; to not be surprised by an issue that they were not
informed about in a timely manner; collect and access data to
support more accurate estimating of project support costs and
task-level commitments; and more lean processes (taking out the
waste promotes greater efficiency).
[0006] Project managers want: to employ tools and techniques which
are appropriate "best practices" for their particular projects, as
long as they are easy to use by themselves and their key project
leads; to make commitments that can be met, yet are still
aggressive; to automatically create status updates from data used
by the team (i.e. be lean); to control product requirements and
changes, and ensure that all key stakeholders are appropriately
informed of change recommendations and decisions; to get the best
performance from function organizations supporting the project (via
project status visibility within the system versus via escalation);
to not have to set up or have as many meetings; to not worry about
managing project data storage; and to know that organizational
executives and managers truly understand project risks (via %
confidence) to prevent stakeholders from having unfounded
expectations and to get assistance (as need) for the barriers for
success to be visible and appropriately acted upon.
[0007] Team members want: to use systems, tools and techniques that
are easy to use; to have a way of making sure that their manager is
automatically notified of project-related issues without being
surprised; to know that their expectations are being met via agreed
to hand-shakes from those who provide them information, dates,
etc.; to not have to attend so many meetings which do not affect
them; to ensure that they are involved in meetings/activities which
affect their efforts; and to get the appropriate recognition that
they deserve for performing their task as expected.
[0008] Thus, it is desirable to provide a software portfolio
management system and method that provides each of the needs for
each of the stakeholders and it is to this end that the disclosure
is directed. Most large organizations have meticulously documented
Policies and Procedures that all business segments are to adhere
to, but Portfolio/Program/Project governance (e.g. reporting
guidelines/formats/content/cadence, rating scales [e.g.
Red/Yellow/Green scales and criteria], management Tools &
Techniques, Roles & Responsibilities, data accuracy and
objectivity, etc.) tend to be inconstant and vary--making oversight
more difficult, and the costs of doing business more expensive.
Further, Project Team members (i.e. those who typically need to
coordinate/communicate their activities with several stakeholders)
tend to use different methodologies to do so (some good and some
not so good) which tends to be less than effective (e.g. create
more work and rework and lead to untimely/costly change decisions).
This is all exasperated in large Matrix organizational structures
where Functional Managers (who dole out people to Projects) have to
try to keep up with all the Projects being supported, whereby each
P 5 Project Manager tends to do things differently. The trend has
been to go to a Project Lifecycle Management (PLM) of some sort to
solve for the resultant inconsistencies and inefficiencies--many of
which are "Home grown" (i.e. built by the organization's IT
[Information Technology] system employees) and limited due to IT
staff technical limitations. Merchant supplier PLMs are not
necessarily Portfolio Management Systems--which opens the door to a
fully integrated SaaS Portfolio Management System (SPM System)
designed by experts, with new innovations (i.e. Tools, Wizards,
Gamification, Data Storage, Machine Learning, etc.) that simplifies
implementation and ensures consistency and that best practices are
employed. This latter system is the subject of this patent, and
unlike other alternatives, enables near-real-time updating of
Project dashboards using complimentary innovations like the TriCoBi
method of Modelling and Simulation and Wizards for ease of
use--providing for all the needs of the various groups
affected.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0009] So that the manner in which the exemplary embodiments of the
disclosure are attained and can be understood in detail, a more
particular description of the system and method, briefly summarized
above, may be had by reference to the embodiments thereof which are
illustrated in the appended drawings. It is to be appreciated that
certain well known processes are not discussed herein in order to
not obscure the disclosure.
[0010] FIG. 1A illustrates an example of a high level architecture
of a software portfolio management system;
[0011] FIG. 1B illustrates the various elements of the SPM (SaaS
Portfolio Management) System, as well as how they inter-relate to
each other and the users;
[0012] FIG. 2A is a flow diagram of the general SPM System Project
Wizard process;
[0013] FIG. 2B compares the DCMA metric to the chrono sub-wizard
that is part of the SPM system;
[0014] FIG. 2C is a chart of the sub-wizards, including the Chrono
Wizard that are part of the SMP system;
[0015] FIG. 3 depicts a process for developing an IMS project task
duration probability distribution function using Triangular
distributions;
[0016] FIGS. 4A and 4B illustrate how the SPM System Project Wizard
manages individual project risks, through the use of a notional
task which has a schedule risk associated with it;
[0017] FIGS. 5A-5C illustrate the SPM System Spider or Radar
diagram and Status Update chart creation and updating process;
[0018] FIGS. 6A-6C illustrate the way that the SPM System adjusts
the details of the schedule views in real-time;
[0019] FIG. 7 depicts a project Baseline schedule with a 70%
confidence and same schedule updated that was adjusted
automatically without changing the IMS schedule Baseline, but only
changing the task distribution parameters;
[0020] FIG. 8 depicts the "Roll-up" scenario whereby multiple
independent project activities are planned and managed separately
within their own IMS systems but are represented as tasks within
the "Parent" IMS Schedule;
[0021] FIGS. 9A and 9B illustrate an exemplary Portfolio Project
Dashboards Page and a subordinate Project Home Page that both can
be interrogated (e.g. drilled down into more detailed subordinate
data) by those with access rights;
[0022] FIG. 10 illustrates an example of gamification of the SPM
system;
[0023] FIG. 11 illustrates the SPM System process associated with
data collection, processing, storage and retrieval that uses
Machine Learning;
[0024] FIGS. 12A-12C illustrates the project wizard supporting
Agile (or Adaptive) PDP Scrum Backlog with Refinement planning and
updating process using an IMS and modelling and simulation
tool;
[0025] FIGS. 13A and 13B illustrate an Iterative (or Incremental)
PDP planning and updating process as a sub-element of the larger
project IMS;
[0026] FIG. 14 illustrates how the SPM System and Project Wizard
enables a Hybrid PDP;
[0027] FIG. 15 illustrates the use of Expert System Task ID
description analysis;
[0028] FIG. 16 describes the process for setting up Organizational
5 Portfolio Governance to distinguish between standard guidelines
and set-up options for different project types in various
sub-portfolios in the SPM system;
[0029] FIG. 17 Illustrates an Authentication process within the SPM
System process;
[0030] FIG. 18 illustrates how a user from another organization
(within the originating organization's Supply Chain) can be
authorized to have selective access to the customer SPM System so
that near-real-time updates can be provided by all critical
entities working on a project;
[0031] FIGS. 19A and 19B illustrate a process flow for Project
Requirements and Change Management;
[0032] FIGS. 20A-C illustrates methodologies for generating project
EVM metrics; and
[0033] FIGS. 21A and 21B illustrate the SPM system being used for
financial management.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF ONE OR MORE EMBODIMENTS
[0034] The disclosure is particularly applicable to a software
portfolio management system (SPM) implemented using a software as a
service architecture using to manage a risk adjusted IMS and it is
in this context that the disclosure will be described. It will be
appreciated, however, that the system and method has greater
utility since the system and method may be implemented using
alternative deliverable software package methods. The SPM System is
the only such system in existence that can satisfy all the desires
and needs of every group of stakeholders described in the
background. It's unique capabilities (as well as those of the
Project Wizard) come from the knowledge embedded into the system
and the added bonus of being the only system with access to the
TriCoBi.TM. modelling and simulation methodology. A risk-adjusted
integrated master schedule (IMS) is a known IMS with a plurality of
tasks that includes various risks included in the IMS as described
in more detail below.
[0035] The SPM System can reside in the internet (cloud) as
software code, within a dedicated intranet server or within a local
user's computer. The SPM System can be accessed directly through a
user link (icon or PC 5 command) or via a log-in and/or
authentication screen. Access rights can be set up universally the
same for users within an organization or could vary for different
types of users. The SPM System allows users (based on access
rights) to: view data; send messages to other users via system
alerts and/or e-mails and receive messages/alerts from other SPM
System users; input data; create and update project plans;
establish and change organizational governance guidelines; and
approve, conditionally approve or reject decisions. The SPM System
may (or may not) require that the different users install other
application programs to facilitate the performance of certain
functions (e.g., running the Project Wizard, performing data
analytics, etc.). The unique and proprietary embodiments of the SPM
System are: the breadth of functionality which enables all aspects
of project team communication, monitoring, controlling and
reporting to be conducted within the SPM System; the customizable
near-real-time and unique project status updates to be available to
the approved user base; the logical relational database for
organization, storage and retrieval of all present and past data;
the incorporation of gamification concepts whereby project
information (e.g. plans, update statuses, etc.) are scored and
project recognition is awarded (e.g. "shields", such as Gold,
Silver, Bronze, "badges", merit points, status ratings, etc.) and
displayed, per project; portfolio (i.e. groupings of projects)
views (i.e. graphics) are provided for quick and easy status update
viewing and drill-down of key project data; the efficient
analytical machine learning recommendations for portfolio, program
and project performance optimization; etc.
[0036] The Project Wizard software resides within the SPM System
and may access one or more other complementary software
applications to perform subsystem functions. The Project Wizard is
comprised of sub-Wizards which are available to the individual user
or all authorized organizational users. This Project Wizard
application facilitates the development, standardization,
baselining, statusing and updating of detailed project plans, and
facilitates the future development of additional sub-Wizards that
build off of it. Users are provided the option of: starting a plan
from the beginning; importing an IMS (Integrated Master Schedule)
from a complimentary application program; or importing a prior
project plan version from a stored file.
[0037] FIG. 2C has a table that shows the various sub-wizards, the
function of each subwizard and the activation method for each
sub-wizard. The Project Wizard steps the user through the
sequential process of developing and/or updating 5 a project plan
that conforms to a set of "best practices" Expert System rules that
enable project plans to be accessed for overall project cost and/or
schedule risk (or the inverse, which is referred to as the percent
(%) confidence). As the project plan is developed or updated the
Project Wizard enables each project task duration to be represented
as a probability distribution of durations or a 10 single discrete
duration. The same process may be performed for project resources
(e.g. man-hours, etc.) and costs. These distributions can serve to
define project risks (threats) and opportunities to be included in
a project Risk Register and Risk Matrix, and to enable the
determination of project health metrics (e.g., schedule, cost,
resource, and/or overall risk ratings). After a project plan is
"baselined" (i.e. the plan is approved and set as the performance
benchmark), as the project progresses and actual performance
information becomes available, the project plan and all associated
project metrics are instantly updated via this Project Wizard
and/or the plan structure is updated via the Project Wizard. Other
unique and proprietary embodiments of the Project Wizard are: %
confidence numbers are created using proprietary modelling and
simulation software applications which use Monte Carlo and/or
TriCoB.TM. methods which perform in a fraction of the time that
other conventional "brute force" Monte Carlo based alternative
systems perform; the fact that the results support development of
near-real-time schedule Gantt charts based on % confidence chosen;
new processes for planning and updating "Agile" and "Incremental"
product development process methodologies using IMS and modelling
and simulation methods; new processes for enabling a combination of
product development processes (Waterfall, Agile and Incremental) to
be integrated into a project plan; the ability to roll-up
subordinate (or "child") schedules into "parent" (or master)
schedules via task probability distribution functions; and the
ability to instantly change an entire IMS Gantt chart schedule to
one with a different overall % confidence between 0% and 100%. In
one example, the child schedule/IMS may be for a supply chain of
the parent IMS.
[0038] FIG. 1A illustrates an example of an implementation of a
software portfolio management system 100 that may be implemented
using a software as a service architecture but may be implemented
using alternative deliverable software systems and methods. In the
data analytics industry to which this system and method may be
used, the disclosed portfolio management method and processes are
unconventional, not routine and not well understood in the industry
as disclosed herein since the existing systems and methods are
unable to solve the technical problem described above and achieve
the results of the disclosed system. At the highest level, the SPM
System 100 may comprise a Project Wizard 106B, a multi-faceted
PC-based user interface 106C, and an Internet Cloud location 106A
for user authentication, communications between users, data
processing, data analytics, report generation and database
storage.
[0039] The system 100 that implements the novel process may include
one or more known storage device 102A, such as a software or
hardware database, that store data about the project and/or the
analysis that is used an input to the portfolio management
disclosed below. The system 100 may further include one or more
computing devices 104, such as a smartphone 104A, . . . , and a
desktop or laptop computer 104N, that may be used by a user, for
example, to access the system, interact with the system, submit
data about a project or analysis or receive a user interface
display from the system with the results of the novel
simulation/analysis performed by the system as described below.
Each computing device 104 may be a processor-based device with
least memory and a display and thus may be the smartphone device
104A, such as an Apple iPhone device or Android operating system
based device, a terminal device, the laptop computer device 104N or
any known known or yet to be developed computing device that can
access the system as described below. The system may also include a
backend system 106 wherein the storage devices 102A and computing
devices 104 may connect to the backend system 106 over one or more
wireless or wired networks (or a combination thereof). While the
systems 102A, 104 A, 104N and 106 shown in FIG. 1 are known
computer systems, storage and networks, the backend system 106
stores and a processor of the backend system 106 executes a
plurality of lines of computer code and the processes performed by
the systems 102A, 104 A, 104N and 106 with the plurality of lines
of computer code (the simulation operation) are unconventional, not
well understood and not routine and provide an ordered combination
of processes that form an inventive concept to perform the
simulation. It should be noted that the simulation process may also
be implemented using hardware devices.
[0040] The backend system 106 may be implemented using one or more
computing resources, such as blade servers, server computers,
storage devices, web servers, application servers and the like that
host and execute the plurality of lines 5 of computer code that
perform the novel and unconventional processes using the software
as a service architecture. For example, the backend 106 may include
the data processing element/component 106A (that may be implemented
as a plurality of lines of computer code) that may be an Internet
Cloud location for user authentication, communications between
users, data processing, data analytics, report generation and
database storage. The backend system 106 may further include the
project wizard engine 106B (that may be implemented as a plurality
of lines of computer code) that receives the data and performs the
portfolio management processes described below and generates data
about the portfolios based on the received data. The backend 106
may further comprise the user interface generator 106C (that may be
implemented as a plurality of lines of computer code) that may
generate the user interfaces (examples of which are shown in the
figures) that conveys the portfolio management results to the
computing devices 104 and/or to the storage device 102A.
[0041] Embodiments of the disclosure facilitate the innovative
functionality of a SaaS (Software as a Service) portfolio
management system (SPM System), or other type of system embodiment
using alternative deliverable software package methods--herein
referred to as the SPM System. And integral to this SPM System, yet
also considered an independent system, a software Project Wizard
(the RTC Wizard being the preferred embodiment but applying to any
other such embodiment)--herein referred to as the Project
Wizard.
[0042] FIG. 1B illustrates the various elements of the SPM (SaaS
Portfolio Management) System) 100, as well as how they inter-relate
to each other and the users and the project wizard 106B that is
part of the SPM 100. In FIG. 1B, the arrows show the direction of
potential data and information flow between the various system
elements and users. What is not shown is the user
authentication/log-on and System Administrative functions that are
well known and therefore not illustrated. As shown in FIG. 1B, the
system 100 may receive inputs/changes from different sources
including an existing IMS project schedule, from project plan data
or from plan updates that may include changes to the IMS project
schedule structure or progress updates without IMS project schedule
structure changes. The latter type of update is typically provided
when issues arise and major changes are necessary to attempt to get
back on track. The former change is simply an update of the work
completed since the Project start date or previous update date.
[0043] A number of sample outputs/user interfaces of the SPM System
100 are shown that are described in more detail below. One
embodiment of the SPM system 100 may use cloud resources for
modeling, simulation and data processing, analytics and reports and
secure data storage. The SPM System accommodates several user
types, each with varying access rights. For example, Project
Planners (e.g. Project Managers, Team Leads, Schedulers, etc.) have
access rights to use the Project Wizard (described in more detail,
in reference to FIG. 2). All users having system access rights
include Project Planners and other Stakeholders (e.g. Executives,
Portfolio Managers, Functional Managers, and At-large Team
Members). These other Stakeholders are able to access the Project
Dashboard, receive Alerts and send Messages, provide project inputs
(usually limited based on function the individual performs),
customize governance guidelines, create Portfolios, sub-Portfolios,
Project Charters, etc. For example, a Team Lead (who oversees a
Functional activity like Mechanical Engineering) may have the
ability to update (provide progress inputs to) the related tasks
worked on by his/her team members, while a Functional Manager for
that Team Lead might wish to approve those updates first, and the
Project Manager is then able to approve all Team Lead inputs and
provide his/her own. Project Planners typically support Project
Managers by coordinating the collection of the inputs and making
recommended plan changes (i.e. extending tasks, changing
requirements, trying to get more resources from Functional Managers
to expedite tasks, etc.) for the Project Manager to review and
ultimately approve. A System Administrator is offered the most
access rights as well (excluding providing project inputs in
support of project work). Some unique aspects of this SPM System
100, relative to report generation, data interrogation and
processing and output report usage are listed below: [0044]
Drill-down from Project Dashboards to Project Home Page and more
detailed under-lying project data to gain more insight into project
team performance [0045] Processing What-ifs on data within the
database for determining Project Schedule changes to implement when
issues arise [0046] Storing and reporting complete Project Updates
in the Secure Database for both collecting trend data and for
determining other Earlier Warning Indicators (i.e. SPIs [Schedule
Performance Indices] that can extrapolate completion date to alert
Managers of potential pending issues [i.e. new risks]) [0047]
Alerting stakeholders of changes and necessary actions to take to
resolve or pro-actively prevent issues from derailing the Project
[0048] Automatic generation of Project Update, with live Drill-down
capability for Stakeholder on-line review of the latest Project
performance data [0049] Automatically rolling up data for use in
planning activities (e.g. Functional Managers can obtain views of
their group's activities to all projects supported, etc.) [0050]
Data-mining in support of analyses and machine learning, i.e.
collecting actual data (time it took and how many man-hours of
effort and/or how much it costed) for use in creating new estimates
for future projects.
[0051] FIG. 2A illustrates a flow diagram of the SPM System Project
Wizard process 200. This process starts with the user accessing the
SPM System via an Icon or URL and this action brings the user to a
Log-in page which manages user access to the system via a known
internet authentication process (202). Once a user is
authenticated, they are taken to their "home page" (203) which is
displayed with all information and command features per the user
access rights (established beforehand by the System Administrator).
In other words, each user's home page is customized to the user
based on that user's access rights as described above. The Project
Wizard (processes 220-234 in FIG. 2A) is activated by any action
(or command) that requires access to Project Wizard's functionality
(e.g., creating a new project plan from a template, importing an
existing IMS from a complementary application program, retrieving
an existing project plan from the SPM System Internet Cloud, etc.).
As shown in FIG. 2A, the use may select a project (204) and
retrieve an stored IMS file (208) if a no new project plan is
created (206) and activate the project wizard starting at process
226. If a new project plan is created, the method determines if an
IMS is being imported (210). If an IMS is not being imported, then
the method retrieves an IMS template file (212) and activates the
project wizard starting at process 220. This template is referred
to as a "Blank Project" which establishes the key settings and
default conditions, sets up the information columns and their
order, and provides the Start and End milestones for the project.
Alternatively, an IMS file is imported (214) and activates the
project wizard starting at process 220.
[0052] Whether a user imports a file from a complementary
application program or retrieve an existing project plan from the
SPM System, the Project Wizard is launched and the file is
systematically interrogated to determine if there are any
non-conformities (relative to the expert system verification
criteria) (220). This is a unique and novel capability that ensures
the resultant IMS will meet all standards established to perform
SRA (Schedule Risk Analysis) modelling and simulation, and EVM
(Earned Value Management). The file may be checked for
non-conformities by sequentially checking schedule structure
relative to task content, interdependencies (predecessors and
successors), and other expert criteria (information embedded into
the wizard which makes it an Expert System). For example, the
criteria may include: (1) setting up an IMS in a way which ensures
that the SRA (Schedule Risk Analysis) Modelling and Simulation
process (using Monte Carlo methods, TriCoBi.TM. methods, etc.)
yields valid % confidence `S` Curve (i.e., cumulative probability
function) results; (2) setting up EVM (Earned Value Management)
data to produce valid CPIs (Cost Performance Indices) and SPIs
(Schedule Performance Indices); etc.
[0053] The Project Wizard sequentially enables (222) task duration
distribution parameters to be input (which are potentially
different depending on the distribution used, such as triangular,
beta, binomial, etc.), checking on their validity (relative to
expert criteria) as inputted, and offering up advise on how to
resolve the conflict. The Project Wizard then sequential enables
additional task info (e.g. % complete, % confidence, PDP mode, risk
descriptions, resources, costs, etc.) to be input, checking on
their validity (relative to expert criteria) as inputted, and
offering up advise on how to resolve the conflict, and enabling
realtime re-calculations to observe interim project plan results.
The PDP (Product Development Process) prompts the PDP mode (e.g.,
Waterfall or Predictive, Incremental or Iterative, Agile or
Adaptive, etc.) so that the various PDP processes can be uniquely
structured per the expert system (224) for each and can be
effectively co-mingled within a single project plan. The project
plan can then be processed (e.g. structure validated, simulation
run to determine cost and/or schedule % Confidence data, etc.) and
iterated one or more times. Eventually the user completes his or
her project planning task by exiting (with or without officially
updating the file which is sometimes prevented due to user access
rights).\
[0054] When the IMS file is imported, the Project Wizard may 5
process the project data, create reports and stores the information
in the secure database (228). The final action is
alerting/notifying all project stakeholders that the project has
been officially updated (234), if that path was pursued. It should
be noted that the DoD's (Department of Defense's) DCMA (Defense
Contract Management Agency) established a commission which
published (in October 2012) a document entitled "Earned Value
Management Systems (EVMS) Program Analysis Pamphlet (PAP) DCMA-EA
PAM 200.1" which includes (starting on page 28) "4.0 14 Point
Schedule Metrics for IMS (Project/Open Plan, etc.) Analysis" which
was "developed to identify potential problem areas with
contractor's IMS", and which the subject Project Wizard is
consistent with--establishing this process (within this underlying
Method) as a technically valid method that has wide-spread
application and acceptance. FIG. 2B shows the 14 point DCMA metric
and compares each of the metric points to the features/functions of
the Chrono Wizard that is part of the SPM system. As shown in FIG.
2B, the Chrono Wizard and thus the SPM system are compatible with
the DMCA 14 point metric.
[0055] If a retrieved IMS file is used, the Project Wizard may
enable the user to make changes in the IMS (226), the Project
Wizard may process the project data, create reports and stores the
information in the secure database (228). The final action is
alerting/notifying all project stakeholders that the project has
been officially updated (234), if that path was pursued. As shown
in FIG. 2, the user may iterate the project and then return to
enabling the user to make changes to the IMS (226).
[0056] If a user is simply updating an existing project plan (e.g.,
implementing changes to structure and/or distributions, and/or
updating the status of one or more tasks) the wizard will enable
them to make changes to IMS and/or task Info, checking on their
validity (relative to expert system criteria) (226) as Inputted,
and offering up advise on how to resolve the conflicts that arise,
if necessary. The users then follow the same iterating and updating
process as previously stated. The SPM process in FIG. 2A provides
the Chrono wizard that has the function shown in FIG. 2C and above
and is compatible with the DCMA metric as shown in FIG. 2B and no
known system or method has that compatibility so that the SMP
system is novel and unconventional. Furthermore, unlike a prior art
system, such as Microsoft.RTM. Project, that does not store past
progress data since 5 it writes over that data, the SPM system
automatically saves the Baseline and past Project Progress Update
Data in the store 102A as shown in FIG. 1A (that may be a storage
system in the cloud) to enable the development of Trend charts and
Earned Value Management metrics. No known system or method performs
these functions so that the SMP system is novel and
unconventional.
[0057] FIG. 2C shows the various sub-wizards that are part of the
project wizard portion of the SMP system 100. The chart in FIG. 2C
shows the name of each sub-wizard, the functions and each
sub-wizard and how that particular sub-wizard is activated in the
SPM system 100. The sub-wizards may include a blank project wizard
that sets up a new project for a user with essential start and end
bounds and pre-establishes Project Settings which enable a Valid
Project set-up. The sub-wizards also may include a chrono wizard
that incrementally helps Users set up Predecessor/Successor Task
Relationships, enables establishment of valid Interdependencies
between Tasks, incrementally helps Users to establish 3-point
duration estimates per Task and provides drop-down menus for Task
Opportunity and Risk Descriptions.
[0058] The system may also include a validation wizard that checks
the entire Project structure (for the current project) to ensure
that construction criteria for appropriate SRA (Schedule Risk
Analysis) and EVM (Earned Value Measurement) is supported, provides
help and options for fixing issues identified and is activated
automatically when the system identifies the need for simulation
updates (due to changes) and use of the Chrono Tab Button. The SPM
system may also have a TriCoBi simulation wizard that collects and
sends all the data to the Cloud for SRA and Earned Schedule
computations and graphic output generation, automatically invokes
the Validation Wizard if changes made, formats the Simulation Data
for multiple Gantt charts in local MS Project file and is activated
by the Chrono Tab Button or whenever a RED Flag in the Chrono Tab
is selected.
[0059] The SPM system may also have a Gantt Chart View Wizard that
creates the database for multiple (i.e. 4 or more) IMS Gantt charts
(at different `S` Curve % Confidence values) and sends the charts
to a local MS Project file, enables the different Gantt charts to
be displayed in the local MS Project file when the Chrono Tab
selection is made and is automatically activated for all selected
Autoscheduled Milestones in the IMS Structure. The SPM system may
also have a Set Project Baseline Wizard that automatically
established IMS (Integrated Master Schedule) Baselines (both a
"Nominal" task duration baseline for the traditional Critical Path
and a Business task duration baseline established for the Team
Commitment), sets up the ES (Earned Schedule) Baseline data for use
in generating ES metrics automatically, provides a warning to user
to ensure Sponsor approval is obtained first, enables Selection of
either Baseline in the Gantt Chart Views--the default for Nominal
and Business Gantts are the Nominal and Business Baselines and
automatically disables "Defaults" from being changed after the
Baseline is set--this prevents inappropriate changes and is
activated Chrono Tab Buttons--one for setting the baselines, and
the other for selecting the baseline in Gantt Views.
[0060] The SPM system may also have a Project Progress Update
Wizard that walks the user through Project progress updating that
enables automatic generation of new SRA and EVM outputs in which
the user sets the Update date, are sequenced through updates of
Tasks that were open during that time up to the update date,
automatically changes 3-points for remaining durations, allows
checking of data, previewing of update results, and officially
publishing the update when ready to do so, ensures that the correct
process if followed to make updating easy and is activated by the
Chrono Tab Buttons, which are only available after the project plan
has been "Baselined". The SPM system may also have a Probability
Distribution Wizard that enables users to pick the appropriate
Probability Distribution to use for the various Tasks, enables the
Task distribution to be set as the Output distribution of a more
complicated "Child" IMS by automatically linking the information
within the SPM System, can also apply the same triangular
distribution Ratios to all tasks as a "What If" and is activated by
a "Default" setting and/or a communicating setting within the task
definitions for "Child"/"Parent" linking of tasks.
[0061] The SPM system may also have a Multiple Gantt Chart Wizard
that provides the different Gantt charts within the Chrono Tab. If
a RED Flag is present, the Validation and Simulation will be
automatically initiated to provide the Gantt chart representing the
most current data, and if the IMS has a structure problem, will
invoke the Validation Wizard to help resolve the issue(s) and is
activated automatically. The SMP also has an SRA Output Wizard that
is a cloud-based system that takes current inputs and converts
those into Graphic Outputs for SRA, ES and other data as deemed
necessary 5 (i.e. SRA Tornado chart, Merge Bias charts, Trend
charts, etc.), includes controls for knowing when Baselines are
established and Updates are processed--and provides trend data by
keeping track of past inputs and is automatically activated.
[0062] The SPM system may further include an Earned Schedule Output
Wizard that takes Baseline and Update input data and establishes a
data set that is used to process integrated trend charts with EVM
performance indices and independent schedule estimations, passes
the above data to the SRA Output Wizard and is automatically
activated. The SPM system also has a Merge Bias Wizard that both
quantifies the Merge Bias (i.e. extra schedule impact contributed
to the SRA output as a result of the merging of overlapping
parallel Tasks within the IMS network) and enables an innovative
Gantt chart view that displays it graphically and is automatic, but
the display is a Chrono Tab Button feature.
[0063] The SPM system also has a Probabilistic Branching Wizard
that enables users to effortlessly insert Probabilistic branching
into the IMS to enable SRA outputs which include the impacts of
these potential schedule structure paths and is activated by the
Chrono Tab Button. The SPM system also has Status Presentation
Wizard that constructs the ChronoDash output data for eventually
display to the Project/Program/Portfolio Stakeholder community with
the ultimate output is graphics that displace the need for separate
Project status update charts, and maximizes the use of objective
project performance data and metrics, includes the generation of
Shields/Badges that essentially represent the level of goodness in
Project Planning and Execution Performance--a form of Gamification
and is activated and available for users of the system who have
access right to approve published project data.
[0064] The SPM system may also have a portion for tracking various
project financials. The various project financials may include
expenditures [e.g. planned, actual, estimated remaining
expenditures], expenditure categories [e.g. direct labor, indirect
labor, materials, capital, equipment, facilities, other direct
costs], funding requirements, etc., with options of integrating
directly or indirectly into the organizations ERP (Enterprise
Resource Planning) system, or not.
[0065] FIG. 3 illustrates a process 300 (and provides a specific
example) for developing an IMS project task duration probability
distribution function. Th 5 is figure shows the information
pertinent to creating a triangular task distribution; either
directly through the identification of the Nominal, Minimum and
Maximum duration estimates or indirectly through the identification
of the Nominal, Best Case and High Confidence duration estimates.
Note that technically, every task with a non-zero duration has a
duration probability distribution function associated with it--many
are represented as a single (or 100% discrete) duration. The
Project Wizard is provided Expert System data (example shown in
FIG. 15) to assist project planners in determining those tasks
which should be discrete durations and those which should be
considered for non-discrete probability distribution functions. In
the method, a user may select a project task (302) and allows the
user to keep task nominal duration as is or change it to another
value (304). The method determines if the duration of the project
task is 100% discrete duration and goes to the next task if it is
true. If the current project task is not 100% discrete duration,
the method may determine the distribution type (e.g. triangular
based on Nominal, Minimum and Maximum duration values; triangular
based on Nominal, 10% Best Case, 90% High Confidence duration
values; or other available distribution type with its specific
input parameters) (308), have the user enter the distribution input
parameters (310) and then have the user review and change as needed
(312) and go onto the next task.
[0066] FIGS. 4A and 4B illustrate how the SPM System Project Wizard
manages individual project risks, through the use of a notional
task which has a schedule risk associated with the task. Through
this example, the task duration distribution which (was previously
established in the Project Wizard--Step 1) is automatically
analyzed to derive an individual project risk entry for the Risk
Matrix, and to support development of a risk description for entry
into the project team's risk register. In this example it is
presumed that the task itself is on the project IMS "critical
path", thus any schedule impact to this task results in a direct
project schedule impact of the same magnitude. If the task were not
on the project critical path, the analysis of the impact would be
determined by factoring in the number of work-days that the task is
removed from the project critical path by appropriately accounting
for the amount of total slack (or float) that the IMS application
indicates for this particular task. The evaluation of all project
individual task risks will also help determine the project risk
rating (for status updates) that the SPM System can generate. Note
that although this example focusses on the project risks (i.e. the
right downward sloping side of the triangle used in this example)
it can also do the same for the project opportunities (i.e. the
left upward sloping side of the triangle used in this example).
This example depicts a Variable Risk (one that has a continuous
probability distribution function. Other risks (e.g. those with
discrete discontinuous points) can also exist, and as such are
handled in a similar way.
[0067] FIGS. 4A and 4B show how the Risk Severity score is
determined. Points A through G (in both the Step 1 and Step 2
charts) are those which apply to S Curve confidence percentages
(i.e. 0%, 10% . . . , 90% and 100%) and the Probability (or
Likelihood) ratings on the x-axis of the matrix in Step 3 (which
are converted to fractions by subtracting them from 100 and then
dividing the Probabilities by 100). The Task Duration column in the
Step 2 table is populated with information from the x-axis of the
Step 1 figure, where the dashed lines from the S Curve intercept
the x-axis. A "Negative Impact" applies to only those durations
that are greater than the "nominal" task duration (i.e. the peak of
the Step 1 triangle), so in this case only points D, E, F and G
apply as indicated by the numbers in that column of the Step 2
table. The Project schedule "Consequence (or Impact)" is a relative
number between 0.0 and 1.0, as shown on the y-axis of the Step 3
Matrices--is relative to the total Project duration, which in this
example is one calendar work-year, or 250 work-days. When you
convert the "Negative Impacts" (which are in work-days) to the
work-year you get the "Project Impact Factor" in the Step 2 table.
So for this Step 1 Task there are two potential non-zero impact
percentages--points E (the 70% Confidence, or 30% Risk which is a
0.3 Likelihood in the Step 3 Matrices) and F (the 90% Confidence,
or 10% Risk which is a 0.1 Likelihood in the Step 3 Matrices). The
most severe point is the one with the highest score in the Step 3
Reference Matrix, which is that derived from Point E so that is the
point put on the matrix in FIG. 4B, and is considered the Item "A"
Risk in the Step 6 Risk Register chart. Steps 4 and 5 are
Metalanguage Statements that assist the User in determining the
Risk Description to put into the Step 6 Risk Matrix.
[0068] FIGS. 5A-5C illustrate the SPM System Spider diagram and
Status Update chart creation and updating process. The Spider
diagram can be created from both objective metrics and subjective
inputs and provides a visual snap-shot of the current status of the
6 project constraints as listed in the lower left-hand corner of
the page. The "Baseline" project plan expectation for each is
provided in the lower 5 center portion of the page and is
represented by a Spider diagram in the upper left chart. Updates
are rated based on Red/Yellow/Green zones (shown by the different
solid and dotted lines shown in the legend) that are established in
the SPM System per organizational governance and desires. A sample
is shown in the lower right-hand table and an example update is
shown in the upper right chart. Note that the criteria are fixed
for both charts and that the "current" ratings are provided for
each metric on both charts. These rating values are described in
5B, whereby a sample of "current" ratings are shown, and a list of
how automated and manual updates are potentially arrived at are
shown in the text on the right side of this page. Note that the
ratings between FIGS. 5A and 5B are aligned, as they should be. The
"Overall Project Health" rating is arrived at based on the number
of G, Y and R ratings of the below metrics. FIG. 5C provides a
look-up table for that determination. Note that this rating is
depicted on the Project's Health Gauge described in FIG. 9. Also,
recognize that this is a sample of one of many methods which could
be employed to display project status data. The number of
constraints can be reduced by the organization (for unimportant
constraints) or expanded to accommodate other metrics (e.g.
Customer Satisfaction, Team Dynamics, etc.). The metrics can also
be "weighted", if that was desired, to arrive at a more appropriate
Overall Project Health indication for a specific organization.
[0069] FIGS. 6A-6C illustrate the way that the SPM System adjusts
the details of the schedule views in real-time. For example, FIG.
6A shows a comparison of the CP (Critical Path) Gantt generated by
the IMS application, with the 70% confidence schedule Gantt
generated by the Project Wizard--Same Schedule, different
interpretation which can facilitate having a more aggressive target
schedule (the CP schedule), yet a more rational (i.e. more
reasonable % confidence) schedule for the team to present as their
committed plan. FIGS. 6B and 6C show how the SPM System can display
multiple overall schedule bar charts for the Baseline Plan (FIG.
6B) and the Updated Plan (FIG. 6C) whereby each bar is adjusted per
the % Confidence and dates generated from the corresponding Project
End Attorney Milestone Distribution chart. This can be further
elaborated to include the same general information for other key
project milestones.
[0070] FIG. 7 illustrates an updated project percent (%) confidence
schedule that was adjusted automatically without changing the IMS
schedule, only recording work/schedule completed and changing the
task distribution parameters of on-going or future tasks. This is a
normal function of the IMS tool, but is a relatively complicated
process (in which, in exiting tools, the IMS is updated then
imported into the other tool to get the results) whereas the SPM
system provides a novel method to accomplish this function using
the Project Progress Update Wizard of the SPM system. The Project
Wizard can implement this type of update (i.e. one which requires
no structural change to the IMS schedule) via a simple SPM System
message from the project lead (for that task) and/or the project
manager. Further, this SPM System can accommodate updates with
structural changes and total project re-baselining. And even
further, the Distribution trends (e.g. completion milestone %
confidence over time), 10% to 90% variances (in work-days) and
Earned Schedule (a variant of Earned Value) metrics (Schedule
Performance Indexes [SPI's], and independent Schedule
extrapolations, etc.) are automatically generated and charted.
[0071] FIG. 8 illustrates a "Roll-up" scenario in the SPM system
whereby multiple independent project activities are planned and
managed separately within their own IMS systems but are represented
as tasks within the "Parent" IMS Schedule. Instead of controlling
all the "Child" scheduling tools and techniques and schedule
development formats to enable IMS schedule roll-up, the SPM System
rolls up (or actually links in) the probability distribution
functions of the "Child" activities' completion milestones. This is
a concept that has never been previously contemplated but is
arguably the best way to perform project "Child" activity schedule
planning and updating roll-ups into their "Parent" project IMS to
produce a truly integrated project IMS that can be updated with
ease at any time a "Child" activity is updated. This SPM System
capability provides for near-real-time project status updating in a
new and novel way. Instead of requiring sub-schedules to be
integrated into the IMS (the current roll-up process), the SPM
System does a complete roll-up by simply inserting new "Child"
schedule completion milestone PDFs--eliminating the need to
coordinate IMS structures, getting IMS inputs, incorporating all
the "Child" IMS subschedule data into "Parent" IMS, then updating
the IMS, saving the file and importing the file into a separate SRA
tool for modelling and simulation processing. This latter
methodology is a detractor in using SRA best practices, which the
SPM System obviates.
[0072] FIGS. 9A and 9B illustrate a sample Portfolio Project
Dashboard Page (FIG. 9A) and subordinate Project individual Home
Page (FIG. 9B). The portfolio projects dashboards page (see sample
embodied in FIG. 9A) identifies the portfolio, portfolio manager
and sub-portfolios (if applicable) and/or the Individual project
health gauges. The health gauge shows current Project Health per
FIG. 5B and one or more subsequent project health metric values to
indicate the project health trend. This near-realtime gauge and
"Snap-shot" can be constructed in numerous ways to embody the
concept and could comprise other high-level project ratings (e.g.
plan and/or performance "Shields" or "Badges", with a more
transparent gauge arrow indicating the last rating prior to the
update, as shown in FIG. 10, etc.). Clicking on the various figures
(e.g. gauge or shield or badge, etc.) launches the viewer (who has
such privileges to do so) to drill down into the under-lying
data.
[0073] The sample Project Home Page (see sample embodied in FIG.
9B) that could be accessed by the user (who has such privileges to
do so) via hovering over the gauge performing a selection function
(e.g. right-clicking the mouse). This Project Home Page examples
shows several data which can be viewed and/or drilled-down further
(by users with the appropriate privileges to do so). This is also
where a project charter can be established and maintained (with
sponsor approvals for solidifying updates to the charter).
[0074] FIG. 10 illustrates Shields or Badges for rating the quality
of the project plan and execution performance status using Expert
System judgment (and user organization preferences) established to
enable this "gamification" concept. Examples of the criteria for
rating a project plan and project execution/performance are provide
in the corresponding table within this figure. Gold, Silver, Bronze
and White Shields are identified in this figure, as samples. Other
Colors, designs, number of levels and criteria could be established
based on organizational preference. FIG. 10 shows how the SPM
system provides a system level feature for awarding special
recognition to teams for applying best practices associated with
project planning and execution.
[0075] FIG. 11 illustrates the SPM System as shown in FIG. 1
associated with data collection, processing, storage and retrieval
that incorporates a Machine Learning element 1100. The machine
learning element 1100 may be implemented, in one embodiment, by a
computer system (that may be separate from the SPM system 100 or
part of the SPM system 100 computer) with a processor and memory
and a plurality of lines of instructions/computer code so that the
processor of the computer system is configured to perform the
machine learning processes as described below. This embodiment of
the SPM System is designed to provide data organization and support
analysis to facilitate arriving at conclusions which enable more
effective and expedient decision-making in the topic areas
associated with portfolio, program and project management that are
not able to be arrived at without the unique data collected and
generated within this SPM System. An obvious example is collecting
actual task performance data (task complexity indicators [e.g. for
a PCBA (Printed Circuit Board Assembly) you could record the number
of layers, size of the board, whether it is uses only SMT (Surface
Mount Technology) parts, or Through-Hole as well, how many ASICs,
etc.]), the actual time it took and the amount of man-hours
required to complete the task, then using that data from many
different projects, creating an automated process for estimating
time and resources needed for performing future such tasks.
[0076] FIGS. 12A-12C illustrate the Agile (or Adaptive) PDP Scrum
Backlog Refinement planning and updating process using an IMS and
modelling and simulation tool. The Product Backlog in a Scrum
Framework has Product Backlog Items (PBIs) that have the following
attributes (as depicted in FIG. 12A): description, value,
estimation, and order. The description attribute defines who the
PBI is for, what is to be developed, and the why or the value that
is generated with its completion, and acceptance criteria that is
used to verify when the PBI is Done. The value is described as a
combination of business value and technical value (considering both
technical risk and technical opportunity) and is measured relative
to the other PBIs often using an integer from the Fibonacci Series
(1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 . . . ). The estimate includes all development
and test effort and considers the complexity development activity
is also measured relative to other PBIs, typically using an integer
from the Fibonacci Series. The value is sometimes called the Cost
of Delay and is divided by the estimate to provide a Weighted
Shortest Job First (WSJF) prioritization of all PBIs in the Product
Backlog. Using the development team's capacity, and the ordered
Product Backlog, a project schedule can be forecasted. A Sprint in
the Scrum Framework is a iterative development and test cycle where
a set of PBIs are developed. The amount of PBIs that can be
developed in one Sprint iteration can vary greatly and must be
predicted by the development team to provide an end-to-end schedule
which includes several Sprints.
[0077] PBIs are relatively estimated and grouped into buckets of
sameness. These sameness buckets sized relative to each other using
the Fibonacci Series. However, since the estimates are rough, and
carry a lot of risk, the Agile Project Wizard helps increase
estimation accuracy by providing a method to further classify the
sameness of PBIs by providing the development team to the option to
provide a 3-point estimate as described in this document for each
PBI. As the development team decides if the nominal point in the
3-point estimate matches another PBI, then the team will decide if
the best case and high confidence case points in the 3-point
estimate is the same as the first PBI. If the new PBI does not have
the 3-point estimate, then a new bucket is created to hold the new
PBI. As all the PBIs in the Product Backlog are estimated, the set
of sameness buckets are expanded from a linear raging set, to a
n-dimensional set that includes, representing all possible 3-point
estimations using a Fibonacci Series for the nominal-point, and
either a percentage of the nominal or another Fibonacci number for
each of the best case and high confidence points of the 3-point
estimate.
[0078] The Agile Project Wizard then recreates the order of the
PBIs using the WSJF process using the 3-point estimate and the
percent confidence level selected by the development team (an
example on which is shown in FIG. 12B). The team's capacity is then
used to determine how many PBIs can be developed in each Sprint
iteration (an example of which is shown in FIG. 12C). The project
is then simulated using the Monte Carlo or TriCoBi.TM. method. The
output of the simulation is a recommendation of which Sprint to
place each PBI based on the predetermined order. The development
team, working with project management, can update the order of the
PBIs and then rerun the simulation to get a final estimated
end-date for the full Product Backlog. The estimated end-date can
be selected and reported out by confidence level. The result is a
Product Backlog estimated and forecasted using probabilistic
estimation.
[0079] FIGS. 13A and 13B that illustrate Iterative (or Incremental)
PDP planning and updating processes using an IMS and modelling and
simulation tool. This type of process is typically a sub-process
within an IMS (as shown in FIG. 13A) and cannot be modelled with an
IMS alone to predict schedule outcomes but needs modelling and
simulation methods a la the SPM System's Project Wizard to
facilitate both IMS set-up and perform SRA (Schedule Risk
Analysis). FIG. 13B shows more detail relative to how this feature
enables the user to set up a set of probability paths (i.e.
branches) to accommodate a variable number of options. The examples
shown include the classical Design/Build/Test "Spin" iterative
process and the Integrated Circuit development process whereby
different probability paths (i.e. branches) can be anticipated and
appropriately factored into schedule % confidence expectations.
Standard IMS tools cannot accommodate this without the use of a
supplemental SRA capability. The SPM system facilitates rolling up
a single IMS "Parent" plan by integrating the PDF outputs of
"Child" IMSs using different PDP approaches--no other system is
known to be available with this unique capability.
[0080] FIG. 14 illustrates how the SPM System and Project Wizard
enables a Hybrid PDP (a combination of Waterfall [or
Predictive/Deterministic], Iterative [or Incremental], Agile [or
Adaptive], etc.) planning and updating process using an IMS and
modelling and simulation tool via Waterfall mode, Iterative mode,
Agile mode, and potential other mode selections/flags. This figure
shows two separate approaches which could be taken to represent a
Hybrid PDP: (1) all integrated into a single combined IMS; and (2)
Integrated via separate "Child"/"Parent" relationships. Both are
effective, and the latter is arguably the most practical for it
enables other team leads to establish and tract their specific
activities as sup-projects. Other IMS application programs cannot
perform this type of PDP integration, and typically attempt to
conform all sub-PDPs into the Waterfall PDP format (a much more
cumbersome and time-consuming process as opposed to this novel SPM
System approach which uses "Child" IMS probability density
functions to integrate into the "Parent" IMS.
[0081] FIG. 15 illustrates the use of Expert System Task ID
description analysis to suggest that the project planner consider
task distributions for Risky tasks, as well as to discourage use of
task distributions on tasks that are described with terms typical
of nonrisky tasks. Two representative lists of expert task
categorization are shown (one for high risk [warranting
non-discrete probability distribution functions] and low-risk
[warranting discrete values at 100%]). A third list will be
provided as well relative to task opportunities to do better than
planned. Key works can be inserted into the wizard to autonomously
locate such tasks for suggesting appropriate distributions. This
can assist those who might need or desire the suggestions. This
feature can be turned off for those not desiring its services. The
SPM System can be designed in such a way that it searches for key
words in the Task Descriptions to prompt users to either consider
tasks which seem like they should be at least considered for
3-point Estimates (but have not been), or for questioning if some
tasks with 3-point estimates should be single point estimates
instead. This can also be used to automatically apply a standard
0.5/1.0/2.0 (Best Case/Nominal/High Confidence) distribution on all
tasks which seem to be risky as a quick "What-if?" for preliminary
schedule evaluation.
[0082] FIG. 16 illustrates the process for setting up
Organizational Portfolio Governance to distinguish between standard
guidelines and set-up options for different project types in
sub-portfolios. As shown in FIGS. 1 and 11, several users can have
Governance control rights, and System Administrators may need to be
appraised (or prompted) to provide certain set-up and/or change
options. Further, within a single user organization, several
different Portfolios (or Sub-Portfolios) can operate under
different sets of project guidelines--enabling a degree of
flexibility which makes this SPM System uniquely flexible enough to
enable. This figure shows an example of organizational governance
site and categories--and menu options available for selection
within the categories. This listing will likely change over time,
but the general concept and breadth of categories/selections is
unique to this SPM System design.
[0083] FIG. 17 illustrates the Authentication process within the
SPM System process, and how this process facilitates all
interactions between the users of the system and the Internet Cloud
which interacts seamlessly and securely (protecting users and
organizations, as well as all their privileged data) within the SPM
system. A Standard Log-in Process is shown (which is cloud-based,
thus internet access is required to use the system). Also shown is
a sample user authorization matrix for various access rights and
privileges. This system accommodates several layers of user
accessibility and the ability for an Administrator to establish the
appropriate settings based on Portfolio Management direction. If a
third-party IMS tool is used by the Project Wizard of that licensed
organization, the Project Planning individuals will need to have
that application program resident within their computer system.
Also, please note that other than the Project Planning activities,
all cloudbased functions are able to be accessed via cellular and
wi-fi enabled devices.
[0084] FIG. 18 illustrates how a user from another organization
(e.g. within the originating organization's Supply Chain) can be
authorized to have selective access to the customer SPM System so
that near-real-time updates can be provided by all critical
entities working on a project. The supplier updates its "Child" IMS
and is given access rights to process an updated sub-project output
distribution which is automatically inserted into the Customer
"Parent" schedule as a replacement to the existing task
distribution for a Task within the "Parent" schedule. This enables
an automatic update of the "Parent" schedule and modelling and
simulation result (i.e. overall project % confidence "S" curve
without having to roll up the supplier's "Child" schedule IMS into
the Customer's "Parent" schedule IMS). The SPM System may be set up
to enable this transaction automatically or with an alert to and
approver before officially enable the update to be published to the
other Organizational Stakeholders.
[0085] FIGS. 19A and 19B illustrate and define the potential (i.e.
if user elects to use this feature) process flow for Project
Requirements and Change Management. This process flow is general in
nature and can be customized to satisfy organizational needs. As
shown, the SPM System communications capability is able to
construct a "configuration controlled" Project Requirements
Compliance Matrix and is able to accommodate organizational and PDP
preferences for products. This flow can include a "request for
change" as well as approvals for evaluating and implementing
changes throughout the project life cycle. This system also enables
automatic Product Requirements updating based on change request and
change implementation decisions and associated metrics.
[0086] FIGS. 20A-20C illustrate and describe the options and how
the two methodologies for generating project earned value
management (EVM) metrics are employed. Formalized EMVS is
well-documented and is offered, but the simpler approaches are not
as well known, and no tools are readily available to offer all
three, like this SPM System is. Three simple project scenarios are
used (with data provided) to show how the tool works, and the
outputs of the more complicated of the two methodologies (Estimates
using CPI [Cost Performance Index] and SPI [Schedule Performance
Index]) are displayed. It must also be noted that this system can
automatically facilitate Earned Schedule (ES), whereby task
duration (or time) is focused on to provide SPIs and corresponding
independent estimates of Schedule completion ranges.
[0087] FIGS. 21A and 21B illustrate two examples relative to the
process of using the SPM system for performance of Financial
Management and/or Prediction. In one example shown in FIG. 21A an
`S` curve (i.e. % Confidence curve) is shown to demonstrate and
describe the unique aspect of this SPM System and its Project
Wizard to give insight into project cost projections and/or project
effort projections (note that the effort metric can be put into
several potential units of measure [e.g. man-hours, man-years,
man-days, etc.]). This type of cost projection curve can be derived
automatically via the use of the Project Wizard and SPM System. The
Probability percentage is equivalent to % Confidence. Similar to
the way the Project Wizard can develop % confidence for project
tasks and accumulate them for every schedule milestone, the same
can be performed for project cost or effort (e.g. man-months of
effort).
[0088] FIG. 21B provides insight into another cost risk metric (at
the portfolio level) that can assist in determining the appropriate
reserves to set aside to cover project cost risks across the
portfolio (using a methodology similar to that of insurance
companies to enable absorption of multiple project-level risks that
are less than the total sum). Other, more conventional financial
data (e.g. actuals, parts open commitments/expenses, other-direct
costs, capital equipment costs, funding, etc.) can be displayed as
well. For simplicity, this analysis in FIG. 21B assumes that each
project has the same level of complexity and budget. Each has a
nominal $10M budget requirement and the risk assumes there is a 10%
(or best-case) probability that each project can be completed for
as little as $8M and a 90 (or high % confidence) probability that
each project will be completed for $15M or less. When considered
individually, to ensure a 90% confidence, one would thus set aside
$15M for each project. As a group, given statistics, the budget
set-aside amount needed to maintain a 90% confidence decreases
incrementally with each additional project (i.e., 2 projects
require $27.43M versus $30M, 3 projects require $39.8M versus $45M,
etc.) Further, if risk tolerance supports a lower confidence
threshold (like 70%), less of a budget set-aside is needed--refer
to the accompanying chart.
[0089] The foregoing description, for purpose of explanation, has
been with reference to specific embodiments. However, the
illustrative discussions above are not intended to be exhaustive or
to limit the disclosure to the precise forms disclosed. Many
modifications and variations are possible in view of the above
teachings. The embodiments were chosen and described in order to
best explain the principles of the disclosure and its practical
applications, to thereby enable others skilled in the art to best
utilize the disclosure and various embodiments with various
modifications as are suited to the particular use contemplated.
[0090] The system and method disclosed herein may be implemented
via one or more components, systems, servers, appliances, other
subcomponents, or distributed between such elements. When
implemented as a system, such systems may include and/or involve,
inter alia, components such as software modules, general-purpose
CPU, RAM, etc. found in general-purpose computers. In
implementations where the innovations reside on a server, such a
server may include or involve components such as CPU, RAM, etc.,
such as those found in general-purpose computers.
[0091] Additionally, the system and method herein may be achieved
via implementations with disparate or entirely different software,
hardware and/or firmware components, beyond that set forth above.
With regard to such other components (e.g., software, processing
components, etc.) and/or computer-readable media associated with or
embodying the present inventions, for example, aspects of the
innovations herein may be implemented consistent with numerous
general purpose or special purpose computing systems or
configurations. Various exemplary computing systems, environments,
and/or configurations that may be suitable for use with the
innovations herein may include, but are not limited to: software or
other components within or embodied on personal computers, servers
or server computing devices such as routing/connectivity
components, hand-held or laptop devices, multiprocessor systems,
microprocessor-based systems, set top boxes, consumer electronic
devices, network PCs, other existing computer platforms,
distributed computing environments that include one or more of the
above systems or devices, etc.
[0092] In some instances, aspects of the system and method may be
achieved via or performed by logic and/or logic instructions
including program modules, executed in association with such
components or circuitry, for example. In general, program modules
may include routines, programs, objects, components, data
structures, etc. that perform particular tasks or implement
particular instructions herein. The inventions may also be
practiced in the context of distributed software, computer, or
circuit settings where circuitry is connected via communication
buses, circuitry or links. In distributed settings,
control/instructions may occur from both local and remote computer
storage media including memory storage devices.
[0093] The software, circuitry and components herein may also
include and/or utilize one or more type of computer readable media.
Computer readable media can be any available media that is resident
on, associable with, or can be accessed by such circuits and/or
computing components. By way of example, and not limitation,
computer readable media may comprise computer storage media and
communication media. Computer storage media includes volatile and
nonvolatile, removable and non-removable media implemented in any
method or technology for storage of information such as computer
readable instructions, data structures, program modules or other
data. Computer storage media includes, but is not limited to, RAM,
ROM, EEPROM, flash memory or other memory technology, CD-ROM,
digital versatile disks (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic
tape, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or
any other medium which can be used to store the desired information
and can accessed by computing component. Communication media may
comprise computer readable instructions, data structures, program
modules and/or other components. Further, communication media may
include wired media such as a wired network or direct-wired
connection, however no media of any such type herein includes
transitory media. Combinations of the any of the above are also
included within the scope of computer readable media.
[0094] In the present description, the terms component, module,
device, etc. may refer to any type of logical or functional
software elements, circuits, blocks and/or processes that may be
implemented in a variety of ways. For example, the functions of
various circuits and/or blocks can be combined with one another
into any other number of modules. Each module may even be
implemented as a software program stored on a tangible memory
(e.g., random access memory, read only memory, CD-ROM memory, hard
disk drive, etc.) to be read by a central processing unit to
implement the functions of the innovations herein. Or, the modules
can comprise programming instructions transmitted to a
general-purpose computer or to processing/graphics hardware via a
transmission carrier wave. Also, the modules can be implemented as
hardware logic circuitry implementing the functions encompassed by
the innovations herein. Finally, the modules can be implemented
using special purpose instructions (SIMD instructions), field
programmable logic arrays or any mix thereof which provides the
desired level performance and cost.
[0095] As disclosed herein, features consistent with the disclosure
may be implemented via computer-hardware, software, and/or
firmware. For example, the systems and methods disclosed herein may
be embodied in various forms including, for example, a data
processor, such as a computer that also includes a database,
digital electronic circuitry, firmware, software, or in
combinations of them. Further, while some of the disclosed
implementations describe specific hardware components, systems and
methods consistent with the innovations herein may be implemented
with any combination of hardware, software and/or firmware.
Moreover, the above-noted features and other aspects and principles
of the innovations herein may be implemented in various
environments. Such environments and related applications may be
specially constructed for performing the various routines,
processes and/or operations according to the invention or they may
include a general-purpose computer or computing platform
selectively activated or reconfigured by code to provide the
necessary functionality. The processes disclosed herein are not
inherently related to any particular computer, network,
architecture, environment, or other apparatus, and may be
implemented by a suitable combination of hardware, software, and/or
firmware. For example, various general-purpose machines may be used
with programs written in accordance with teachings of the
invention, or it may be more convenient to construct a specialized
apparatus or system to perform the required methods and
techniques.
[0096] Aspects of the method and system described herein, such as
the logic, may also be implemented as functionality programmed into
any of a variety of circuitry, including programmable logic devices
("PLDs"), such as field programmable gate arrays ("FPGAs"),
programmable array logic ("PAL") devices, electrically programmable
logic and memory devices and standard cell-based devices, as well
as application specific integrated circuits. Some other
possibilities for implementing aspects include: memory devices,
microcontrollers with memory (such as EEPROM), embedded
microprocessors, firmware, software, etc. Furthermore, aspects may
be embodied in microprocessors having software-based circuit
emulation, discrete logic (sequential and combinatorial), custom
devices, fuzzy (neural) logic, quantum devices, and hybrids of any
of the above device types. The underlying device technologies may
be provided in a variety of component types, e.g., metal-oxide
semiconductor field-effect transistor ("MOSFET") technologies like
complementary metal-oxide semiconductor ("CMOS"), bipolar
technologies like emitter-coupled logic ("ECL"), polymer
technologies (e.g., silicon-conjugated polymer and metal-conjugated
polymer-metal structures), mixed analog and digital, and so on.
[0097] It should also be noted that the various logic and/or
functions disclosed herein may be enabled using any number of
combinations of hardware, firmware, and/or as data and/or
instructions embodied in various machine-readable or
computer-readable media, in terms of their behavioral, register
transfer, logic component, and/or other characteristics.
Computer-readable media in which such formatted data and/or
instructions may be embodied include, but are not limited to,
non-volatile storage media in various forms (e.g., optical,
magnetic or semiconductor storage media) though again does not
include transitory media. Unless the context clearly requires
otherwise, throughout the description, the words "comprise,"
"comprising," and the like are to be construed in an inclusive
sense as opposed to an exclusive or exhaustive sense; that is to
say, in a sense of "including, but not limited to." Words using the
singular or plural number also include the plural or singular
number respectively. Additionally, the words "herein," "hereunder,"
"above," "below," and words of similar import refer to this
application as a whole and not to any particular portions of this
application. When the word "or" is used in reference to a list of
two or more items, that word covers all of the following
interpretations of the word: any of the items in the list, all of
the items in the list and any combination of the items in the
list.
[0098] Although certain presently preferred implementations of the
invention have been specifically described herein, it will be
apparent to those skilled in the art to which the invention
pertains that variations and modifications of the various
implementations shown and described herein may be made without
departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Accordingly,
it is intended that the invention be limited only to the extent
required by the applicable rules of law.
[0099] While the foregoing has been with reference to a particular
embodiment of the disclosure, it will be appreciated by those
skilled in the art that changes in this embodiment may be made
without departing from the principles and spirit of the disclosure,
the scope of which is defined by the appended claims.
* * * * *