U.S. patent application number 17/676095 was filed with the patent office on 2022-08-04 for architecture and methods for generating intelligent offers with dynamic base prices.
The applicant listed for this patent is Eversight, Inc.. Invention is credited to Michael Montero, David Moran, Jamie Rapperport.
Application Number | 20220245668 17/676095 |
Document ID | / |
Family ID | |
Filed Date | 2022-08-04 |
United States Patent
Application |
20220245668 |
Kind Code |
A1 |
Rapperport; Jamie ; et
al. |
August 4, 2022 |
ARCHITECTURE AND METHODS FOR GENERATING INTELLIGENT OFFERS WITH
DYNAMIC BASE PRICES
Abstract
Methods and apparatus for generating intelligent offers with
base prices are provided. In one embodiment, a promotion generator
receives a current product base price, and also receives or
calculates a remaining promotional program budget, a remaining
promotional program duration, and a minimum discounted price for
the product using the current product base price and any available
previous base price data for the promoted product, creating or
updating a predictive model of future product base prices.
Inventors: |
Rapperport; Jamie; (Palo
Alto, CA) ; Montero; Michael; (Palo Alto, CA)
; Moran; David; (Palo Alto, CA) |
|
Applicant: |
Name |
City |
State |
Country |
Type |
Eversight, Inc. |
Palo Alto |
CA |
US |
|
|
Appl. No.: |
17/676095 |
Filed: |
February 18, 2022 |
Related U.S. Patent Documents
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Application
Number |
Filing Date |
Patent Number |
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15969698 |
May 2, 2018 |
11288698 |
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17676095 |
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14209851 |
Mar 13, 2014 |
9984387 |
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15969698 |
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62576742 |
Oct 25, 2017 |
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61780630 |
Mar 13, 2013 |
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International
Class: |
G06Q 30/02 20060101
G06Q030/02 |
Claims
1. A computer-implemented method for calculating a price for a
product, the method comprising: calculating cost of promotion as a
budget for a time period t equal to unit sales during the time
period t multiplied by a base price for the time period t
multiplied by a discount percentage for the time period t, wherein
the base price for any given time period t differs from another
given time period t; and managing the discount percentage for each
time period t to ensure a sum of the cost of promotion over n time
periods does not exceed a total budget and any given discount
percentage does not drop below a minimum threshold.
2-10. (canceled)
11. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 further comprising
calculating total sales of promoted product by summing over n time
periods the unit sales during the time period t.
12. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the discount
percentage is calculated by a predictive technique and at least one
optimization technique.
13. The computer-implemented method of claim 12 wherein the
predictive technique includes at least one of Markov chains and
machine learning.
14. The computer-implemented method of claim 12 wherein the at
least one optimization technique includes at least one of
combinatorial optimizations and linear programming.
15. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the base
price for any given time period t is a function of commodity price
fluctuation.
16. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 further comprising
calculating a net price for a given time period t as one minus the
discount percentage for time period t multiplied by the base price
for time period t.
17. The computer-implemented method of claim 16 further comprising
ensuring the net price for any given time period t is greater than
a minimum price threshold.
18. The computer-implemented method of claim 17 further comprising
calculating a second optimized percentage discount subject to the
minimum price threshold.
19. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 further comprising
deploying a promotion using the discount percentage over the n time
periods.
20. A computer program product stored on non-transitory computer
memory which when executed on a computer system performs the steps
of: calculating cost of promotion as a budget for a time period t
equal to unit sales during the time period t multiplied by a base
price for the time period t multiplied by a discount percentage for
the time period t, wherein the base price for any given time period
t differs from another given time period t; and managing the
discount percentage for each time period t to ensure a sum of the
cost of promotion over n time periods does not exceed a total
budget and any given discount percentage does not drop below a
minimum threshold.
21. The computer program product of claim 20, which when executed
on the computer system further performs the steps of calculating
total sales of promoted product by summing over n time periods the
unit sales during the time period t.
22. The computer program product of claim 20, wherein the discount
percentage is calculated by a predictive technique and at least one
optimization technique.
23. The computer program product of claim 22, wherein the
predictive technique includes at least one of Markov chains and
machine learning.
24. The computer program product of claim 22, wherein the at least
one optimization technique includes at least one of combinatorial
optimizations and linear programming.
25. The computer program product of claim 20, wherein the base
price for any given time period t is a function of commodity price
fluctuation.
26. The computer program product of claim 20, which when executed
on the computer system further performs the steps of calculating a
net price for a given time period t as one minus the discount
percentage for time period t multiplied by the base price for time
period t.
27. The computer program product of claim 26, which when executed
on the computer system further performs the steps of ensuring the
net price for any given time period t is greater than a minimum
price threshold.
28. The computer program product of claim 27, which when executed
on the computer system further performs the steps of calculating a
second optimized percentage discount subject to the minimum price
threshold.
29. The computer program product of claim 20, which when executed
on the computer system further performs the steps of deploying a
promotion using the discount percentage over the n time periods.
Description
CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS
[0001] This Continuation application claims the benefit of U.S.
application Ser. No. 15/969,698, filed May 2, 2018, of the same
title, currently allowed, which is a non-provisional application
and claims priority to U.S. Provisional Application No. 62/576,742,
filed Oct. 25, 2017, of the same title, expired, which applications
are incorporated herein in their entirety by this reference.
[0002] Also, U.S. application Ser. No. 15/969,698 is a
Continuation-in-part application which claims the benefit of U.S.
application Ser. No. 14/209,851, filed Mar. 13, 2014, entitled
"Architecture and Methods for Promotion Optimization," Attorney
Docket No. EVS-1401, now U.S. Pat. No. 9,984,387, issued May 29,
2018, which claims priority under 35 U.S.C. 119(e) to a commonly
owned U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/780,630 entitled
"Architecture and Methods for Promotion Optimization," Attorney
Docket No. PRCO-P001P1, filed Mar. 13, 2013, expired, all of which
applications are incorporated herein in their entirety by this
reference.
BACKGROUND
[0003] The present invention relates generally to promotion
optimization methods and apparatus therefor. More particularly, the
present invention relates to computer-implemented methods and
computer-implemented apparatus for optimizing promotions.
[0004] Promotion refers to various practices designed to increase
sales of a particular product or services and/or the profit
associated with such sales. Generally speaking, the public often
associates promotion with the sale of consumer goods and services,
including consumer packaged goods (e.g., food, home and personal
care), consumer durables (e.g., consumer appliances, consumer
electronics, automotive leasing), consumer services (e.g., retail
financial services, health care, insurance, home repair, beauty and
personal care), and travel and hospitality (e.g., hotels, airline
flights, and restaurants). Promotion is particularly heavily
involved in the sale of consumer packaged goods (i.e., consumer
goods packaged for sale to an end consumer). However, promotion
occurs in almost any industry that offers goods or services to a
buyer (whether the buyer is an end consumer or an intermediate
entity between the producer and the end consumer).
[0005] The term promotion may refer to, for example, providing
discounts (using for example a physical or electronic coupon or
code) designed to, for example, promote the sales volume of a
particular product or service. One aspect of promotion may also
refer to the bundling of goods or services to create a more
desirable selling unit such that sales volume may be improved.
Another aspect of promotion may also refer to the merchandising
design (with respect to looks, weight, design, color, etc.) or
displaying of a particular product with a view to increasing its
sales volume. It includes calls to action or marketing claims used
in-store, on marketing collaterals, or on the package to drive
demand. Promotions may be composed of all or some of the following:
price based claims, secondary displays or aisle end-caps in a
retail store, shelf signage, temporary packaging, placement in a
retailer circular/flyer/coupon book, a colored price tag,
advertising claims, or other special incentives intended to drive
consideration and purchase behavior. These examples are meant to be
illustrative and not limiting.
[0006] In discussing various embodiments of the present invention,
the sale of consumer packaged goods (hereinafter "CPG") is employed
to facilitate discussion and ease of understanding. It should be
kept in mind, however, that the promotion optimization methods and
apparatuses discussed herein may apply to any industry in which
promotion has been employed in the past or may be employed in the
future.
[0007] Further, price discount is employed as an example to explain
the promotion methods and apparatuses herein. It should be
understood, however, that promotion optimization may be employed to
manipulate factors other than price discount in order to influence
the sales volume. An example of such other factors may include the
call to action on a display or on the packaging, the size of the
CPG item, the manner in which the item is displayed or promoted or
advertised either in the store or in media, etc.
[0008] Generally speaking, it has been estimated that, on average,
17% of the revenue in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry is
spent to fund various types of promotions, including discounts,
designed to entice consumers to try and/or to purchase the packaged
goods. In a typical example, the retailer (such as a grocery store)
may offer a discount online or via a print circular to consumers.
The promotion may be specifically targeted to an individual
consumer (based on, for example, that consumer's demographics or
past buying behavior). The discount may alternatively be broadly
offered to the general public. Examples of promotions offered to
general public include for example, a printed or electronic
redeemable discount (e.g., coupon or code) for a specific CPG item.
Another promotion example may include, for example, general
advertising of the reduced price of a CPG item in a particular
geographic area. Another promotion example may include in-store
marking down of a particular CPG item only for a loyalty card user
base.
[0009] In an example, if the consumer redeems the coupon or
electronic code, the consumer is entitled to a reduced price for
the CPG item. The revenue loss to the retailer due to the redeemed
discount may be reimbursed, wholly or partly, by the manufacturer
of the CPG item in a separate transaction.
[0010] Because promotion is expensive (in terms of, for example,
the effort to conduct a promotion campaign and/or the per-unit
revenue loss to the retailer/manufacturer when the consumer decides
to take advantage of the discount), efforts are continually made to
minimize promotion cost while maximizing the return on promotion
dollars investment. This effort is known in the industry as
promotion optimization.
[0011] For example, a typical promotion optimization method may
involve examining the sales volume of a particular CPG item over
time (e.g., weeks). The sales volume may be represented by a demand
curve as a function of time, for example. A demand curve lift
(excess over baseline) or dip (below baseline) for a particular
time period would be examined to understand why the sales volume
for that CPG item increases or decreases during such time
period.
[0012] FIG. 1 shows an example demand curve 102 for Brand X cookies
over some period of time. Two lifts 110 and 114 and one dip 112 in
demand curve 102 are shown in the example of FIG. 1. Lift 110 shows
that the demand for Brand X cookies exceeds the baseline at least
during week 2. By examining the promotion effort that was
undertaken at that time (e.g., in the vicinity of weeks 1-4 or week
2) for Brand X cookies, marketers have in the past attempted to
judge the effectiveness of the promotion effort on the sales
volume. If the sales volume is deemed to have been caused by the
promotion effort and delivers certain financial performance
metrics, that promotion effort is deemed to have been successful
and may be replicated in the future in an attempt to increase the
sales volume. On the other hand, dip 112 is examined in an attempt
to understand why the demand falls off during that time (e.g.,
weeks 3 and 4 in FIG. 1). If the decrease in demand was due to the
promotion in week 2 (also known as consumer pantry loading or
retailer forward-buying, depending on whether the sales volume
shown reflects the sales to consumers or the sales to retailers),
this decrease in weeks 3 and 4 should be counted against the
effectiveness of week 2.
[0013] One problem with the approach employed in the prior art has
been the fact that the prior art approach is a backward-looking
approach based on aggregate historical data. In other words, the
prior art approach attempts to ascertain the nature and extent of
the relationship between the promotion and the sales volume by
examining aggregate data collected in the past. The use of
historical data, while having some disadvantages (which are
discussed later herein below), is not necessarily a problem.
However, when such data is in the form of aggregate data (such as
in simple terms of sales volume of Brand X cookies versus time for
a particular store or geographic area), it is impossible to extract
from such aggregate historical data all of the other factors that
may more logically explain a particular lift or dip in the demand
curve.
[0014] To elaborate, current promotion optimization approaches tend
to evaluate sales lifts or dips as a function of four main factors:
discount depth (e.g., how much was the discount on the CPG item),
discount duration (e.g., how long did the promotion campaign last),
timing (e.g., whether there was any special holidays or event or
weather involved), and promotion type (e.g., whether the promotion
was a price discount only, whether Brand X cookies were
displayed/not displayed prominently, whether Brand X cookies were
features/not featured in the promotion literature).
[0015] However, there may exist other factors that contribute to
the sales lift or dip, and such factors are often not discoverable
by examining, in a backward-looking manner, the historical
aggregate sales volume data for Brand X cookies. This is because
there is not enough information in the aggregate sales volume data
to enable the extraction of information pertaining to unanticipated
or seemingly unrelated events that may have happened during the
sales lifts and dips and may have actually contributed to the sales
lifts and dips.
[0016] Suppose, for example, that there was a discount promotion
for Brand X cookies during the time when lift 110 in the demand
curve 102 happens. However, during the same time, there was a
breakdown in the distribution chain of Brand Y cookies, a
competitor's cookies brand which many consumers view to be an
equivalent substitute for Brand X cookies. With Brand Y cookies
being in short supply in the store, many consumers bought Brand X
instead for convenience sake. Aggregate historical sales volume
data for Brand X cookies, when examined after the fact in isolation
by Brand X marketing department thousands of miles away, would not
uncover that fact. As a result, Brand X marketers may make the
mistaken assumption that the costly promotion effort of Brand X
cookies was solely responsible for the sales lift and should be
continued, despite the fact that it was an unrelated event that
contributed to most of the lift in the sales volume of Brand X
cookies.
[0017] As another example, suppose, for example, that milk produced
by a particular unrelated vendor was heavily promoted in the same
grocery store or in a different grocery store nearby during the
week that Brand X cookies experienced the sales lift 110. The milk
may have been highlighted in the weekly circular, placed in a
highly visible location in the store and/or a milk industry expert
may have been present in the store to push buyers to purchase milk,
for example. Many consumers ended up buying milk because of this
effort whereas some of most of those consumers who bought during
the milk promotion may have waited another week or so until they
finished consuming the milk they bought in the previous weeks.
Further, many of those milk-buying consumers during this period
also purchased cookies out of an ingrained milk-and-cookies habit.
Aggregate historical sales volume data for Brand X cookies would
not uncover that fact unless the person analyzing the historical
aggregate sales volume data for Brand X cookies happened to be
present in the store during that week and had the insight to note
that milk was heavily promoted that week and also the insight that
increased milk buying may have an influence on the sales volume of
Brand X cookies.
[0018] Software may try to take these unanticipated events into
account but unless every SKU (stock keeping unit) in that store and
in stores within commuting distance and all events, whether
seemingly related or unrelated to the sales of Brand X cookies, are
modeled, it is impossible to eliminate data noise from the
backward-looking analysis based on aggregate historical sales
data.
[0019] Even without the presence of unanticipated factors, a
marketing person working for Brand X may be interested in knowing
whether the relatively modest sales lift 114 comes from purchases
made by regular Brand X cookies buyers or by new buyers being
enticed by some aspect of the promotion campaign to buy Brand X
cookies for the first time. If Brand X marketer can ascertain that
most of the lift in sales during the promotion period that spans
lift 114 comes from new consumers of Brand X cookies, such marketer
may be willing to spend more money on the same type of sales
promotion, even to the point of tolerating a negative ROI (return
on investment) on his promotion dollars for this particular type of
promotion since the recruitment of new buyers to a brand is deemed
more much valuable to the company in the long run than the
temporary increase in sales to existing Brand X buyers. Again,
aggregate historical sales volume data for Brand X cookies, when
examined in a backward-looking manner, would not provide such
information.
[0020] Furthermore, even if all unrelated and related events and
factors can be modeled, the fact that the approach is
backward-looking means that there is no way to validate the
hypothesis about the effect an event has on the sales volume since
the event has already occurred in the past. With respect to the
example involving the effect of milk promotion on Brand X cookies
sales, there is no way to test the theory short of duplicating the
milk shortage problem again. Even if the milk shortage problem
could be duplicated again for testing purposes, other conditions
have changed, including the fact that most consumers who bought
milk during that period would not need to or be in a position to
buy milk again in a long time. Some factors, such as weather,
cannot be duplicated, making theory verification challenging.
[0021] Attempts have been made to employ non-aggregate sales data
in promoting products. For example, some companies may employ a
loyalty card program (such as the type commonly used in grocery
stores or drug stores) to keep track of purchases by individual
consumers. If an individual consumer has been buying sugar-free
cereal, for example, the manufacturer of a new type of whole grain
cereal may wish to offer a discount to that particular consumer to
entice that consumer to try out the new whole grain cereal based on
the theory that people who bought sugar-free cereal tend to be more
health conscious and thus more likely to purchase whole grain
cereal than the general cereal-consuming public. Such
individualized discount may take the form of, for example, a
redeemable discount such as a coupon or a discount code mailed or
emailed to that individual.
[0022] Some companies may vary the approach by, for example,
ascertaining the items purchased by the consumer at the point of
sale terminal and offering a redeemable code on the purchase
receipt. Irrespective of the approach taken, the utilization of
non-aggregate sales data has typically resulted in individualized
offers, and has not been processed or integrated in any meaningful
sense into a promotion optimization effort to determine the most
cost-efficient, highest-return manner to promote a particular CPG
item to the general public.
[0023] Attempts have also been made to obtain from the consumers
themselves indications of future buying behavior instead of relying
on a backward-looking approach. For example, conjoint studies, one
of the stated preference methods, have been attempted in which
consumers are asked to state preferences. In an example conjoint
study, a consumer may be approached at the store and asked a series
of questions designed to uncover the consumer's future shopping
behavior when presented with different promotions. Questions may be
asked include, for example, "do you prefer Brand X or Brand Y" or
"do you spend less than $100 or more than $100 weekly on grocery"
or "do you prefer chocolate cookies or oatmeal cookies" or "do you
prefer a 50-cent-off coupon or a 2-for-1 deal on cookies". The
consumer may state his preference on each of the questions posed
(thus making this study a conjoint study on stated preference).
[0024] However, such conjoint studies have proven to be an
expensive way to obtain non-historical data. If the conjoint
studies are presented via a computer, most users may ignore the
questions and/or refuse to participate. If human field personnel
are employed to talk to individual consumers to conduct the
conjoint study, the cost of such studies tends to be quite high due
to salary cost of the human field personnel and may make the
extensive use of such conjoint studies impractical.
[0025] Further and more importantly, it has been known that
conjoint studies are somewhat unreliable in gauging actual
purchasing behavior by consumers in the future. An individual may
state out of guilt and the knowledge that he needs to lose weight
that he will not purchase any cookies in the next six months,
irrespective of discounts. In actuality, that individual may pick
up a package of cookies every week if such package is carried in a
certain small size that is less guilt-inducing and/or if the
package of cookies is prominently displayed next to the milk
refrigerator and/or if a 10% off discount coupon is available. If a
promotion effort is based on such flawed stated preference data,
discounts may be inefficiently deployed in the future, costing the
manufacturer more money than necessary for the promotion.
[0026] Finally, none of the approaches track the long-term impact
of a promotion's effect on brand equity for an individual's buying
behavior over time. Some promotions, even if deemed a success by
traditional short-term measures, could have damaging long-term
consequences. Increased price-based discounting, for example, can
lead to consumers increasing the weight of price in determining
their purchase decisions, making consumers more deal-prone and
reluctant to buy at full price, leading to less loyalty to brands
and retail outlets.
[0027] It is therefore apparent that an urgent need exists for
systems and methods that enable a user to generate advertisement
designs that most effectively explore the experimental space of a
possible promotion in order to efficiently hone in on potent
general promotions.
SUMMARY
[0028] To achieve the foregoing and in accordance with the present
invention, systems and methods for generating intelligent offers
with dynamic base prices are provided.
[0029] In one embodiment, a promotion generator receives a current
product base price, and also receives or calculates a remaining
promotional program budget, a remaining promotional program
duration, and a minimum discounted price for the product using the
current product base price and any available previous base price
data for the promoted product, creating or updating a predictive
model of future product base prices. The computation uses the
predictive model, one or more optimization techniques, the
remaining promotional program budget, the remaining promotional
program duration, and the minimum discounted price for the product,
and calculates an optimal current discounted price for the product
that is likely to maximize sales for the duration of the
promotional program without exceeding the remaining promotional
program budget.
[0030] Note that the various features of the present invention
described above may be practiced alone or in combination. These and
other features of the present invention will be described in more
detail below in the detailed description of the invention and in
conjunction with the following figures.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0031] In order that the present invention may be more clearly
ascertained, some embodiments will now be described, by way of
example, with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which:
[0032] FIG. 1 shows an example demand curve 102 for Brand X cookies
over some period of time;
[0033] FIG. 2A shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the
invention, a conceptual drawing of the forward-looking promotion
optimization method;
[0034] FIG. 2B shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the
invention, the steps for generating a general public promotion;
[0035] FIG. 3A shows in greater detail, in accordance with an
embodiment of the invention, the administering step 206 of FIG. 2
from the user's perspective;
[0036] FIG. 3B shows in greater detail, in accordance with an
embodiment of the invention, the administering step 206 of FIG. 2
from the forward-looking promotion optimization system
perspective;
[0037] FIG. 4 shows various example segmentation criteria that may
be employed to generate the purposefully segmented
subpopulations;
[0038] FIG. 5 shows various example methods for communicating the
test promotions to individuals of the segmented subpopulations
being tested;
[0039] FIG. 6 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, various
example promotion-significant responses;
[0040] FIG. 7 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, various
example test promotion variables affecting various aspects of a
typical test promotion;
[0041] FIG. 8 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a general
hardware/network view of a forward-looking promotion optimization
system;
[0042] FIG. 9 is a flow chart showing an embodiment in which a
promoted product's optimum discount for each week is selected to
maximize total unit sales during the promotion; and
[0043] FIGS. 10A and 10B illustrate an example of how the process
described in FIG. 9 is used to calculate discounts over the course
of a multi-week promotion.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0044] The present invention will now be described in detail with
reference to several embodiments thereof as illustrated in the
accompanying drawings. In the following description, numerous
specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough
understanding of embodiments of the present invention. It will be
apparent, however, to one skilled in the art, that embodiments may
be practiced without some or all of these specific details. In
other instances, well known process steps and/or structures have
not been described in detail in order to not unnecessarily obscure
the present invention. The features and advantages of embodiments
may be better understood with reference to the drawings and
discussions that follow.
[0045] Aspects, features and advantages of exemplary embodiments of
the present invention will become better understood with regard to
the following description in connection with the accompanying
drawing(s). It should be apparent to those skilled in the art that
the described embodiments of the present invention provided herein
are illustrative only and not limiting, having been presented by
way of example only. All features disclosed in this description may
be replaced by alternative features serving the same or similar
purpose, unless expressly stated otherwise. Therefore, numerous
other embodiments of the modifications thereof are contemplated as
falling within the scope of the present invention as defined herein
and equivalents thereto. Hence, use of absolute and/or sequential
terms, such as, for example, "will," "will not," "shall," "shall
not," "must," "must not," "first," "initially," "next,"
"subsequently," "before," "after," "lastly," and "finally," are not
meant to limit the scope of the present invention as the
embodiments disclosed herein are merely exemplary.
[0046] Various embodiments are described herein below, including
methods and techniques. It should be kept in mind that the
invention might also cover articles of manufacture that includes a
computer readable medium on which computer-readable instructions
for carrying out embodiments of the inventive technique are stored.
The computer readable medium may include, for example,
semiconductor, magnetic, opto-magnetic, optical, or other forms of
computer readable medium for storing computer readable code.
Further, the invention may also cover apparatuses for practicing
embodiments of the invention. Such apparatus may include circuits,
dedicated and/or programmable, to carry out tasks pertaining to
embodiments of the invention. Examples of such apparatus include
any of the data processing devices, including for example smart
phones, tablet computers, laptop computers, or a general-purpose
computers and/or dedicated computing devices when appropriately
programmed and may include a combination of a computer/computing
device and dedicated/programmable circuits adapted for the various
tasks pertaining to embodiments of the invention. Such a data
processing device include, as is well-known, at least a processor
unit, a memory unit, a graphic processing unit, a data storage unit
(such as a hard drive or semiconductor-based data storage device),
one or more I/O circuits, one or more data communication
sub-systems, and/or operating system/applications for executing
executable code. Data processing devices are well-known and are not
discussed in greater detail herein for brevity's sake. The
apparatuses may be stand-alone or may be coupled together using a
network, such as a local area network, an intranet, an internet, or
an combination thereof.
[0047] One or more embodiments of the invention relate to methods
and apparatus for optimizing promotions by administering, in large
numbers and iteratively, test promotions on purposefully segmented
subpopulations in advance of a general public promotion roll-out.
In one or more embodiments, the inventive forward-looking promotion
optimization (FL-PO) involves obtaining actual revealed preferences
from individual consumers of the segmented subpopulations being
tested.
[0048] The revealed preferences are obtained when the individual
consumers respond to specifically designed actual test promotions.
The revealed preferences are tracked in individual
computer-implemented accounts (which may, for example, be
implemented via a record in a centralized database and rendered
accessible to the merchant or the consumer via a computer network
such as the internet) associated with individual consumers. For
example, when a consumer responds, using his smart phone or web
browser, to a test promotion that offers 20% off a particular
consumer packaged goods (CPG) item, that response is tracked in his
individual computer-implemented account. Such computer-implemented
accounts may be implemented via, for example, a loyalty card
program, apps on a smart phone, computerized records accessible via
a browser, social media news feed, etc.
[0049] In one or more embodiments, a plurality of test promotions
may be designed and tested on a plurality of groups of consumers
(the groups of consumers are referred to herein as
"subpopulations"). The responses by the consumers are recorded and
analyzed, with the analysis result employed to generate additional
test promotions or to formulate the general population
promotion.
[0050] As will be discussed later herein, if the consumer actually
redeems the offer, one type of response is recorded and noted in
the computer-implemented account of that consumer. Even if an
action by the consumer does not involve actually redeeming or
actually taking advantage of the promotional offer right away, an
action by that consumer may, however, constitute a response that
indicates a level of interest or lack of interest and may still be
useful in revealing the consumer preference (or lack thereof). For
example, if a consumer saves an electronic coupon (offered as part
of a test promotion) in his electronic coupon folder or forwards
that coupon to a friend via an email or a social website, that
action may indicate a certain level of interest and may be useful
in determining the effectiveness of a given test promotion.
Different types of responses by the consumers may be accorded
different weights, in one or more embodiments.
[0051] The groups of consumers involved in promotion testing
represent segments of the public that have been purposefully
segmented in accordance with segmenting criteria specifically
designed for the purpose of testing the test promotions. As the
term is employed herein, a subpopulation is deemed purposefully
segmented when its members are selected based on criteria other
than merely to make up a given number of members in the
subpopulation. Demographics, buying behavior, behavioral economics
are example criteria that may be employed to purposefully segment a
population into subpopulations for promotion testing. In an
example, a segmented population may number in the tens or hundreds
or even thousands of individuals. In contrast, the general public
may involve tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions
of potential customers.
[0052] By purposefully segmenting the public into small
subpopulations for promotion testing, embodiments of the invention
can exert control over variables such as demographics (e.g., age,
income, sex, marriage status, address, etc.), buying behavior
(e.g., regular purchaser of Brand X cookies, consumer of premium
food, frequent traveler, etc.), weather, shopping habits, life
style, and/or any other criteria suitable for use in creating the
subpopulations. More importantly, the subpopulations are kept small
such that multiple test promotions may be executed on different
subpopulations, either simultaneously or at different times,
without undue cost or delay in order to obtain data pertaining to
the test promotion response behavior. The low cost/low delay aspect
of creating and executing test promotions on purposefully segmented
subpopulations permits, for example, what-if testing, testing in
statistically significant numbers of tests, and/or iterative
testing to isolate winning features in test promotions.
[0053] Generally speaking, each individual test promotion may be
designed to test one or more test promotion variables. These test
promotions variables may relate to, for example, the size, shape,
color, manner of display, manner of discount, manner of
publicizing, manner of dissemination pertaining to the
goods/services being promoted.
[0054] As a very simple example, one test promotion may involve
12-oz packages of fancy-cut potato chips with medium salt and a
discount of 30% off the regular price. This test promotion may be
tested on a purposefully segmented subpopulation of 35-40 years old
professionals in the $30,000-$50,000 annual income range. Another
test promotion may involve the same 30% discount 12-oz packages of
fancy-cut potato chips with medium salt on a different purposefully
segmented subpopulation of 35-40 years old professionals in the
higher $100,000-$150,000 annual income range. By controlling all
variables except for income range, the responses of these two test
promotions, if repeated in statistically significant numbers, would
likely yield fairly accurate information regarding the relationship
between income for 35-40 years old professionals and their actual
preference for 12-oz packages of fancy cut potato chips with medium
salt.
[0055] In designing different test promotions, one or more of the
test promotions variables may vary or one or more of the segmenting
criteria employed to create the purposefully segmented
subpopulations may vary. The test promotion responses from
individuals in the subpopulations are then collected and analyzed
to ascertain which test promotion or test promotion variable(s)
yields/yield the most desirable response (based on some predefined
success criteria, for example).
[0056] Further, the test promotions can also reveal insights
regarding which subpopulation performs the best or well with
respect to test promotion responses. In this manner, test promotion
response analysis provides insights not only regarding the relative
performance of the test promotion and/or test promotion variable
but also insights regarding population segmentation and/or
segmentation criteria. In an embodiment, it is contemplated that
the segments may be arbitrarily or randomly segmented into groups
and test promotions may be executed against these arbitrarily
segmented groups in order to obtain insights regarding personal
characteristics that respond well to a particular type of
promotion.
[0057] In an embodiment, the identified test promotion variable(s)
that yield the most desirable responses may then be employed to
formulate a general public promotion (GPP), which may then be
offered to the larger public. A general public promotion is
different from a test promotion in that a general public promotion
is a promotion designed to be offered to members of the public to
increase or maximize sales or profit whereas a test promotion is
designed to be targeted to a small group of individuals fitting a
specific segmentation criteria for the purpose of promotion
testing. Examples of general public promotions include (but not
limited to) advertisement printed in newspapers, release in public
forums and websites, flyers for general distribution, announcement
on radios or television, and/or promotion broadly transmitted or
made available to members of the public. The general public
promotion may take the form of a paper or electronic circular that
offers the same promotion to the larger public, for example.
[0058] Alternatively or additionally, promotion testing may be
iterated over and over with different subpopulations (segmented
using the same or different segmenting criteria) and different test
promotions (devised using the same or different combinations of
test promotion variables) in order to validate one or more the test
promotion response analysis result(s) prior to the formation of the
generalized public promotion. In this manner, "false positives" may
be reduced.
[0059] Since a test promotion may involve many test promotion
variables, iterative test promotion testing, as mentioned, may help
pin-point a variable (i.e., promotion feature) that yields the most
desirable test promotion response to a particular subpopulation or
to the general public.
[0060] Suppose, for example, that a manufacturer wishes to find out
the most effective test promotion for packaged potato chips. One
test promotion may reveal that consumers tend to buy a greater
quantity of potato chips when packaged in brown paper bags versus
green paper bags. That "winning" test promotion variable value
(i.e., brown paper bag packaging) may be retested in another set of
test promotions using different combinations of test promotion
variables (such as for example with different prices, different
display options, etc.) on the same or different purposefully
segmented subpopulations. The follow-up test promotions may be
iterated multiple times in different test promotion variable
combinations and/or with different test subpopulations to validate
that there is, for example, a significant consumer preference for
brown paper bag packaging over other types of packaging for potato
chips.
[0061] Further, individual "winning" test promotion variable values
from different test promotions may be combined to enhance the
efficacy of the general public promotion to be created. For
example, if a 2-for-1 discount is found to be another winning
variable value (e.g., consumers tend to buy a greater quantity of
potato chips when offered a 2-for-1 discount), that winning test
promotion variable value (e.g., the aforementioned 2-for-1
discount) of the winning test promotion variable (e.g., discount
depth) may be combined with the brown paper packaging winning
variable value to yield a promotion that involves discounting
2-for-1 potato chips in brown paper bag packaging.
[0062] The promotion involving discounting 2-for-1 potato chips in
brown paper bag packaging may be tested further to validate the
hypothesis that such a combination elicits a more desirable
response than the response from test promotions using only brown
paper bag packaging or from test promotions using only 2-for-1
discounts. As many of the "winning" test promotion variable values
may be identified and combined in a single promotion as desired. At
some point, a combination of "winning" test promotion variables
(involving one, two, three, or more "winning" test promotion
variables) may be employed to create the general public promotion,
in one or more embodiments.
[0063] In one or more embodiments, test promotions may be executed
iteratively and/or in a continual fashion on different purposefully
segmented subpopulations using different combinations of test
promotion variables to continue to obtain insights into consumer
actual revealed preferences, even as those preferences change over
time. Note that the consumer responses that are obtained from the
test promotions are actual revealed preferences instead of stated
preferences. In other words, the data obtained from the test
promotions administered in accordance with embodiments of the
invention pertains to what individual consumers actually do when
presented with the actual promotions. The data is tracked and
available for analysis and/or verification in individual
computer-implemented accounts of individual consumers involved in
the test promotions. This revealed preference approach is opposed
to a stated preference approach, which stated preference data is
obtained when the consumer states what he would hypothetically do
in response to, for example, a hypothetically posed conjoint test
question.
[0064] As such, the actual preference test promotion response data
obtained in accordance with embodiments of the present invention is
a more reliable indicator of what a general population member may
be expected to behave when presented with the same or a similar
promotion in a general public promotion. Accordingly, there is a
closer relationship between the test promotion response behavior
(obtained in response to the test promotions) and the general
public response behavior when a general public promotion is
generated based on such test promotion response data.
[0065] Also, the lower face validity of a stated preference test,
even if the insights have statistical relevance, poses a practical
challenge; CPG manufacturers who conduct such tests have to then
communicate the insights to a retailer in order to drive real-world
behavior, and convincing retailers of the validity of these tests
after the fact can lead to lower credibility and lower adoption, or
"signal loss" as the top concepts from these tests get
re-interpreted by a third party, the retailer, who wasn't involved
in the original test design.
[0066] It should be pointed out that embodiments of the inventive
test promotion optimization methods and apparatuses disclosed
herein operate on a forward-looking basis in that the plurality of
test promotions are generated and tested on segmented
subpopulations in advance of the formulation of a general public
promotion. In other words, the analysis results from executing the
plurality of test promotions on different purposefully segmented
subpopulations are employed to generate future general public
promotions. In this manner, data regarding the "expected" efficacy
of the proposed general public promotion is obtained even before
the proposed general public promotion is released to the public.
This is one key driver in obtaining highly effective general public
promotions at low cost.
[0067] Furthermore, the subpopulations can be generated with highly
granular segmenting criteria, allowing for control of data noise
that may arise due to a number of factors, some of which may be out
of the control of the manufacturer or the merchant. This is in
contrast to the aggregated data approach of the prior art.
[0068] For example, if two different test promotions are executed
on two subpopulations shopping at the same merchant on the same
date, variations in the response behavior due to time of day or
traffic condition are essentially eliminated or substantially
minimized in the results (since the time or day or traffic
condition would affect the two subpopulations being tested in
substantially the same way).
[0069] The test promotions themselves may be formulated to isolate
specific test promotion variables (such as the aforementioned
potato chip brown paper packaging or the 16-oz size packaging).
This is also in contrast to the aggregated data approach of the
prior art.
[0070] Accordingly, individual winning promotion variables may be
isolated and combined to result in a more effective promotion
campaign in one or more embodiments. Further, the test promotion
response data may be analyzed to answer questions related to
specific subpopulation attribute(s) or specific test promotion
variable(s). With embodiments of the invention, it is now possible
to answer, from the test subpopulation response data, questions
such as "How deep of a discount is required to increase by 10% the
volume of potato chip purchased by buyers who are 18-25 year-old
male shopping on a Monday?" or to generate test promotions
specifically designed to answer such a question. Such data
granularity and analysis result would have been impossible to
achieve using the backward-looking, aggregate historical data
approach of the prior art.
[0071] In one or more embodiments, there is provided a promotional
idea module for generating ideas for promotional concepts to test.
The promotional idea generation module relies on a series of
pre-constructed sentence structures that outline typical
promotional constructs. For example, Buy X, get Y for $Z price
would be one sentence structure, whereas Get Y for $Z when you buy
X would be a second. It's important to differentiate that the
consumer call to action in those two examples is materially
different, and one cannot assume the promotional response will be
the same when using one sentence structure vs. another. The
solution is flexible and dynamic, so once X, Y, and Z are
identified, multiple valid sentence structures can be tested.
Additionally, other variables in the sentence could be changed,
such as replacing "buy" with "hurry up and buy" or "act now" or
"rush to your local store to find". The solution delivers a
platform where multiple products, offers, and different ways of
articulating such offers can be easily generated by a lay user. The
amount of combinations to test can be infinite. Further, the
generation may be automated, saving time and effort in generating
promotional concepts. In following sections one mechanism, the
design matrix, for the automation of promotional generation will be
provided in greater detail.
[0072] In one or more embodiments, once a set of concepts is
developed, the technology advantageously a) will constrain offers
to only test "viable promotions", i.e., those that don't violate
local laws, conflict with branding guidelines, lead to unprofitable
concepts that wouldn't be practically relevant, can be executed on
a retailers' system, etc., and/or b) link to the design of
experiments for micro-testing to determine which combinations of
variables to test at any given time.
[0073] In one or more embodiments, there is provided an offer
selection module for enabling a non-technical audience to select
viable offers for the purpose of planning traditional promotions
(such as general population promotion, for example) outside the
test environment. By using filters and advanced consumer-quality
graphics, the offer selection module will be constrained to only
show top performing concepts from the tests, with production-ready
artwork wherever possible. By doing so, the offer selection module
renders irrelevant the traditional, Excel-based or heavily
numbers-oriented performance reports from traditional analytic
tools. The user can have "freedom within a framework" by selecting
any of the pre-scanned promotions for inclusion in an offer to the
general public, but value is delivered to the retailer or
manufacturer because the offers are constrained to only include the
best performing concepts. Deviation from the top concepts can be
accomplished, but only once the specific changes are run through
the testing process and emerge in the offer selection windows.
[0074] In an embodiment, it is expressly contemplated that the
general population and/or subpopulations may be chosen from social
media site (e.g., Facebook.TM., Twitter.TM., Google+.TM., etc.)
participants. Social media offers a large population of active
participants and often provide various communication tools (e.g.,
email, chat, conversation streams, running posts, etc.) which makes
it efficient to offer promotions and to receive responses to the
promotions. Various tools and data sources exist to uncover
characteristics of social media site members, which characteristics
(e.g., age, sex, preferences, attitude about a particular topic,
etc.) may be employed as highly granular segmentation criteria,
thereby simplifying segmentation planning.
[0075] Although grocery stores and other brick-and-mortar
businesses are discussed in various examples herein, it is
expressly contemplated that embodiments of the invention apply also
to online shopping and online advertising/promotion and online
members/customers.
[0076] These and other features and advantages of embodiments of
the invention may be better understood with reference to the
figures and discussions that follow.
[0077] FIG. 2A shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the
invention, a conceptual drawing of the forward-looking promotion
optimization method. As shown in FIG. 2A, a plurality of test
promotions 102a, 102b, 102c, 102d, and 102e are administered to
purposefully segmented subpopulations 104a, 104b, 104c, 104d, and
104e respectively. As mentioned, each of the test promotions
(102a-102e) may be designed to test one or more test promotion
variables.
[0078] In the example of FIG. 2A, test promotions 102a-102d are
shown testing three test promotion variables X, Y, and Z, which may
represent for example the size of the packaging (e.g., 12 oz.
versus 16 oz.), the manner of display (e.g., at the end of the
aisle versus on the shelf), and the discount (e.g., 10% off versus
2-for-1). These promotion variables are of course only illustrative
and almost any variable involved in producing, packaging,
displaying, promoting, discounting, etc. of the packaged product
may be deemed a test promotion variable if there is an interest in
determining how the consumer would respond to variations of one or
more of the test promotion variables. Further, although only a few
test promotion variables are shown in the example of FIG. 2A, a
test promotion may involve as many or as few of the test promotion
variables as desired. For example, test promotion 102e is shown
testing four test promotion variables (X, Y, Z, and T).
[0079] One or more of the test promotion variables may vary from
test promotion to test promotion. In the example of FIG. 2A, test
promotion 102a involves test variable X1 (representing a given
value or attribute for test variable X) while test promotion 102b
involves test variable X2 (representing a different value or
attribute for test variable X). A test promotion may vary, relative
to another test promotion, one test promotion variable (as can be
seen in the comparison between test promotions 102a and 102b) or
many of the test promotion variables (as can be seen in the
comparison between test promotions 102a and 102d). Also, there are
no requirements that all test promotions must have the same number
of test promotion variables (as can be seen in the comparison
between test promotions 102a and 102e) although for the purpose of
validating the effect of a single variable, it may be useful to
keep the number and values of other variables (i.e., the control
variables) relatively constant from test to test (as can be seen in
the comparison between test promotions 102a and 102b).
[0080] Generally speaking, the test promotions may be generated
using automated test promotion generation software 110, which
varies for example the test promotion variables and/or the values
of the test promotion variables and/or the number of the test
promotion variables to come up with different test promotions.
[0081] In the example of FIG. 2A, purposefully segmented
subpopulations 104a-104d are shown segmented using four
segmentation criteria A, B, C, D, which may represent for example
the age of the consumer, the household income, the zip code, and
whether the person is known from past purchasing behavior to be a
luxury item buyer or a value item buyer. These segmentation
criteria are of course only illustrative and almost any
demographics, behavioral, attitudinal, whether self-described,
objective, interpolated from data sources (including past purchase
or current purchase data), etc. may be used as segmentation
criteria if there is an interest in determining how a particular
subpopulation would likely respond to a test promotion. Further,
although only a few segmentation criteria are shown in connection
with subpopulations 104a-104d in the example of FIG. 2A,
segmentation may involve as many or as few of the segmentation
criteria as desired. For example, purposefully segmented
subpopulation 104e is shown segmented using five segmentation
criteria (A, B, C, D, and E).
[0082] In the present disclosure, a distinction is made between a
purposefully segmented subpopulation and a randomly segmented
subpopulation. The former denotes a conscious effort to group
individuals based on one or more segmentation criteria or
attributes. The latter denotes a random grouping for the purpose of
forming a group irrespective of the attributes of the individuals.
Randomly segmented subpopulations are useful in some cases; however
they are distinguishable from purposefully segmented subpopulations
when the differences are called out.
[0083] One or more of the segmentation criteria may vary from
purposefully segmented subpopulation to purposefully segmented
subpopulation. In the example of FIG. 2A, purposefully segmented
subpopulation 104a involves segmentation criterion value A1
(representing a given attribute or range of attributes for
segmentation criterion A) while purposefully segmented
subpopulation 104c involves segmentation criterion value A2
(representing a different attribute or set of attributes for the
same segmentation criterion A).
[0084] As can be seen, different purposefully segmented
subpopulation may have different numbers of individuals. As an
example, purposefully segmented subpopulation 104a has four
individuals (P1-P4) whereas purposefully segmented subpopulation
104e has six individuals (P17-P22). A purposefully segmented
subpopulation may differ from another purposefully segmented
subpopulation in the value of a single segmentation criterion (as
can be seen in the comparison between purposefully segmented
subpopulation 104a and purposefully segmented subpopulation 104c
wherein the attribute A changes from A1 to A2) or in the values of
many segmentation criteria simultaneously (as can be seen in the
comparison between purposefully segmented subpopulation 104a and
purposefully segmented subpopulation 104d wherein the values for
attributes A, B, C, and D are all different). Two purposefully
segmented subpopulations may also be segmented identically (i.e.,
using the same segmentation criteria and the same values for those
criteria) as can be seen in the comparison between purposefully
segmented subpopulation 104a and purposefully segmented
subpopulation 104b.
[0085] Also, there are no requirements that all purposefully
segmented subpopulations must be segmented using the same number of
segmentation criteria (as can be seen in the comparison between
purposefully segmented subpopulation 104a and 104e wherein
purposefully segmented subpopulation 104e is segmented using five
criteria and purposefully segmented subpopulation 104a is segmented
using only four criteria) although for the purpose of validating
the effect of a single criterion, it may be useful to keep the
number and values of other segmentation criteria (e.g., the control
criteria) relatively constant from purposefully segmented
subpopulation to purposefully segmented subpopulation.
[0086] Generally speaking, the purposefully segmented
subpopulations may be generated using automated segmentation
software 112, which varies for example the segmentation criteria
and/or the values of the segmentation criteria and/or the number of
the segmentation criteria to come up with different purposefully
segmented subpopulations.
[0087] In one or more embodiments, the test promotions are
administered to individual users in the purposefully segmented
subpopulations in such a way that the responses of the individual
users in that purposefully segmented subpopulation can be recorded
for later analysis. As an example, an electronic coupon may be
presented in an individual user's computer-implemented account
(e.g., shopping account or loyalty account), or emailed or
otherwise transmitted to the smart phone of the individual. In an
example, the user may be provided with an electronic coupon on his
smart phone that is redeemable at the merchant. In FIG. 2A, this
administering is represented by the lines that extend from test
promotion 102a to each of individuals P1-P4 in purposefully
segmented subpopulation 104a. If the user (such as user P1) makes a
promotion-significant response, the response is noted in database
130.
[0088] A promotion-significant response is defined as a response
that is indicative of some level of interest or disinterest in the
goods/service being promoted. In the aforementioned example, if the
user P1 redeems the electronic coupon at the store, the redemption
is strongly indicative of user P1's interest in the offered goods.
However, responses falling short of actual redemption or actual
purchase may still be significant for promotion analysis purposes.
For example, if the user saves the electronic coupon in his
electronic coupon folder on his smart phone, such action may be
deemed to indicate a certain level of interest in the promoted
goods. As another example, if the user forwards the electronic
coupon to his friend or to a social network site, such forwarding
may also be deemed to indicate another level of interest in the
promoted goods. As another example, if the user quickly moves the
coupon to trash, this action may also indicate a level of strong
disinterest in the promoted goods. In one or more embodiments,
weights may be accorded to various user responses to reflect the
level of interest/disinterest associated with the user's responses
to a test promotion. For example, actual redemption may be given a
weight of 1, whereas saving to an electronic folder would be given
a weight of only 0.6 and whereas an immediate deletion of the
electronic coupon would be given a weight of -0.5.
[0089] Analysis engine 132 represents a software engine for
analyzing the consumer responses to the test promotions. Response
analysis may employ any analysis technique (including statistical
analysis) that may reveal the type and degree of correlation
between test promotion variables, subpopulation attributes, and
promotion responses. Analysis engine 132 may, for example,
ascertain that a certain test promotion variable value (such as
2-for-1 discount) may be more effective than another test promotion
variable (such as 25% off) for 32-oz soft drinks if presented as an
electronic coupon right before Monday Night Football. Such
correlation may be employed to formulate a general population
promotion (150) by a general promotion generator software (160). As
can be appreciated from this discussion sequence, the optimization
is a forward-looking optimization in that the results from test
promotions administered in advance to purposefully segmented
subpopulations are employed to generate a general promotion to be
released to the public at a later date.
[0090] In one or more embodiments, the correlations ascertained by
analysis engine 132 may be employed to generate additional test
promotions (arrows 172, 174, and 176) to administer to the same or
a different set of purposefully segmented subpopulations. The
iterative testing may be employed to verify the consistency and/or
strength of a correlation (by administering the same test promotion
to a different purposefully segmented subpopulation or by combining
the "winning" test promotion value with other test promotion
variables and administering the re-formulated test promotion to the
same or a different set of purposefully segmented
subpopulations).
[0091] In one or more embodiments, a "winning" test promotion value
(e.g., 20% off listed price) from one test promotion may be
combined with another "winning" test promotion value (e.g.,
packaged in plain brown paper bags) from another test promotion to
generate yet another test promotion. The test promotion that is
formed from multiple "winning" test promotion values may be
administered to different purposefully segmented subpopulations to
ascertain if such combination would elicit even more desirable
responses from the test subjects.
[0092] Since the purposefully segmented subpopulations are small
and may be segmented with highly granular segmentation criteria, a
large number of test promotions may be generated (also with highly
granular test promotion variables) and a large number of
combinations of test promotions/purposefully segmented
subpopulations can be executed quickly and at a relatively low
cost. The same number of promotions offered as general public
promotions would have been prohibitively expensive to implement,
and the large number of failed public promotions would have been
costly for the manufacturers/retailers. In contrast, if a test
promotion fails, the fact that the test promotion was offered to
only a small number of consumers in one or more segmented
subpopulations would limit the cost of failure. Thus, even if a
large number of these test promotions "fail" to elicit the desired
responses, the cost of conducting these small test promotions would
still be quite small.
[0093] In an embodiment, it is envisioned that dozens, hundreds, or
even thousands of these test promotions may be administered
concurrently or staggered in time to the dozens, hundreds or
thousands of segmented subpopulations. Further, the large number of
test promotions executed (or iteratively executed) improves the
statistical validity of the correlations ascertained by analysis
engine. This is because the number of variations in test promotion
variable values, subpopulation attributes, etc. can be large, thus
yielding rich and granulated result data. The data-rich results
enable the analysis engine to generate highly granular correlations
between test promotion variables, subpopulation attributes, and
type/degree of responses, as well as track changes over time. In
turn, these more accurate/granular correlations help improve the
probability that a general public promotion created from these
correlations would likely elicit the desired response from the
general public. It would also, over, time, create promotional
profiles for specific categories, brands, retailers, and individual
shoppers where, e.g., shopper 1 prefers contests and shopper 2
prefers instant financial savings.
[0094] FIG. 2B shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the
invention, the steps for generating a general public promotion. In
one or more embodiments, each, some, or all the steps of FIG. 2B
may be automated via software to automate the forward-looking
promotion optimization process. In step 202, the plurality of test
promotions are generated. These test promotions have been discussed
in connection with test promotions 102a-102e of FIG. 2A and
represent the plurality of actual promotions administered to small
purposefully segmented subpopulations to allow the analysis engine
to uncover highly accurate/granular correlations between test
promotion variables, subpopulation attributes, and type/degree of
responses in an embodiment, these test promotions may be generated
using automated test promotion generation software that varies one
or more of the test promotion variables, either randomly, according
to heuristics, and/or responsive to hypotheses regarding
correlations from analysis engine 132 for example.
[0095] In step 204, the segmented subpopulations are generated. In
an embodiment, the segmented subpopulations represent randomly
segmented subpopulations. In another embodiment, the segmented
subpopulations represent purposefully segmented subpopulations. In
another embodiment, the segmented subpopulations may represent a
combination of randomly segmented subpopulations and purposefully
segmented subpopulations. In an embodiment, these segmented
subpopulations may be generated using automated subpopulation
segmentation software that varies one or more of the segmentation
criteria, either randomly, according to heuristics, and/or
responsive to hypotheses regarding correlations from analysis
engine 132, for example.
[0096] In step 206, the plurality of test promotions generated in
step 202 are administered to the plurality of segmented
subpopulations generated in step 204. In an embodiment, the test
promotions are administered to individuals within the segmented
subpopulation and the individual responses are obtained and
recorded in a database (step 208).
[0097] In an embodiment, automated test promotion software
automatically administers the test promotions to the segmented
subpopulations using electronic contact data that may be obtained
in advance from, for example, social media sites, a loyalty card
program, previous contact with individual consumers, or potential
consumer data purchased from a third party, etc. The responses may
be obtained at the point of sale terminal, or via a website or
program, via social media, or via an app implemented on smart
phones used by the individuals, for example.
[0098] In step 210, the responses are analyzed to uncover
correlations between test promotion variables, subpopulation
attributes, and type/degree of responses.
[0099] In step 212, the general public promotion is formulated from
the correlation data, which is uncovered by the analysis engine
from data obtained via subpopulation test promotions. In an
embodiment, the general public promotion may be generated
automatically using public promotion generation software which
utilizes at least the test promotion variables and/or subpopulation
segmentation criteria and/or test subject responses and/or the
analysis provided by analysis engine 132.
[0100] In step 214, the general public promotion is released to the
general public to promote the goods/services.
[0101] In one or more embodiments, promotion testing using the test
promotions on the segmented subpopulations occurs in parallel to
the release of a general public promotion and may continue in a
continual fashion to validate correlation hypotheses and/or to
derive new general public promotions based on the same or different
analysis results. If iterative promotion testing involving
correlation hypotheses uncovered by analysis engine 132 is desired,
the same test promotions or new test promotions may be generated
and executed against the same segmented subpopulations or different
segmented subpopulations as needed (paths 216/222/226 or
216/224/226 or 216/222/224/226). As mentioned, iterative promotion
testing may validate the correlation hypotheses, serve to eliminate
"false positives" and/or uncover combinations of test promotion
variables that may elicit even more favorable or different
responses from the test subjects.
[0102] Promotion testing may be performed on an on-going basis
using the same or different sets of test promotions on the same or
different sets of segmented subpopulations as mentioned (paths
218/222/226 or 218/224/226 or 218/222/224/226 or 220/222/226 or
220/224/226 or 220/222/224/226).
[0103] FIG. 3A shows in greater detail, in accordance with an
embodiment of the invention, the administering step 206 of FIG. 2
from the user's perspective. In step 302, the test promotion is
received from the test promotion generation server (which executes
the software employed to generate the test promotion). As examples,
the test promotion may be received at a user's smart phone or
tablet (such as in the case of an electronic coupon or a discount
code, along with the associated promotional information pertaining
to the product, place of sale, time of sale, etc.) or in a
computer-implemented account (such as a loyalty program account)
associated with the user that is a member of the segmented
subpopulation to be tested or via one or more social media sites.
In step 304, the test promotion is presented to the user. In step
306, the user's response to the test promotion is obtained and
transmitted to a database for analysis.
[0104] FIG. 3B shows in greater detail, in accordance with an
embodiment of the invention, the administering step 206 of FIG. 2
from the forward-looking promotion optimization system perspective.
In step 312, the test promotions are generated using the test
promotion generation server (which executes the software employed
to generate the test promotion). In step 314, the test promotions
are provided to the users (e.g., transmitted or emailed to the
user's smart phone or tablet or computer or shared with the user
using the user's loyalty account). In step 316, the system receives
the user's responses and stores the user's responses in the
database for later analysis.
[0105] FIG. 4 shows various example segmentation criteria that may
be employed to generate the purposefully segmented subpopulations.
As show in FIG. 4, demographics criteria (e.g., sex, location,
household size, household income, etc.), buying behavior (category
purchase index, most frequent shopping hours, value versus premium
shopper, etc.), past/current purchase history, channel (e.g.,
stores frequently shopped at, competitive catchment of stores
within driving distance), behavioral economics factors, etc. can
all be used to generate with a high degree of granularity the
segmented subpopulations. The examples of FIG. 4 are meant to be
illustrative and not meant to be exhaustive or limiting. As
mentioned, one or more embodiments of the invention generate the
segmented subpopulations automatically using automated population
segmentation software that generates the segmented subpopulations
based on values of segmentation criteria.
[0106] FIG. 5 shows various example methods for communicating the
test promotions to individuals of the segmented subpopulations
being tested. As shown in FIG. 5, the test promotions may be mailed
to the individuals, emailed in the form of text or electronic flyer
or coupon or discount code, displayed on a webpage when the
individual accesses his shopping or loyalty account via a computer
or smart phone or tablet. Redemption may take place using, for
example, a printed coupon (which may be mailed or may be printed
from an electronic version of the coupon) at the point of sale
terminal, an electronic version of the coupon (e.g., a screen image
or QR code), the verbal providing or manual entry of a discount
code into a terminal at the store or at the point of sale. The
examples of FIG. 5 are meant to be illustrative and not meant to be
exhaustive or limiting. One or more embodiments of the invention
automatically communicate the test promotions to individuals in the
segmented subpopulations using software that
communicates/email/mail/administer the test promotions
automatically. In this manner, subpopulation test promotions may be
administered automatically, which gives manufacturers and retailers
the ability to generate and administer a large number of test
promotions with low cost/delay.
[0107] FIG. 6 shows, in accordance with an embodiment, various
example promotion-significant responses. As mentioned, redemption
of the test offer is one strong indication of interest in the
promotion. However, other consumer actions responsive to the
receipt of a promotion may also reveal the level of
interest/disinterest and may be employed by the analysis engine to
ascertain which test promotion variable is likely or unlikely to
elicit the desired response. Examples shown in FIG. 6 include
redemption (strong interest), deletion of the promotion offer (low
interest), save to electronic coupon folder (mild to strong
interest), clicked to read further (mild interest), forwarding to
self or others or social media sites (mild to strong interest). As
mentioned, weights may be accorded to various consumer responses to
allow the analysis engine to assign scores and provide
user-interest data for use in formulating follow-up test promotions
and/or in formulating the general public promotion. The examples of
FIG. 6 are meant to be illustrative and not meant to be exhaustive
or limiting.
[0108] FIG. 7 shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the
invention, various example test promotion variables affecting
various aspects of a typical test promotion. As shown in FIG. 7,
example test promotion variables include price, discount action
(e.g., save 10%, save $1, 2-for-1 offer, etc.), artwork (e.g., the
images used in the test promotion to draw interest), brand (e.g.,
brand X potato chips versus brand Y potato chips), pricing tier
(e.g., premium, value, economy), size (e.g., 32 oz., 16 oz., 8
oz.), packaging (e.g., single, 6-pack, 12-pack, paper, can, etc.),
channel (e.g., email versus paper coupon versus notification in
loyalty account). The examples of FIG. 7 are meant to be
illustrative and not meant to be exhaustive or limiting. As
mentioned, one or more embodiments of the invention involve
generating the test promotions automatically using automated test
promotion generation software by varying one or more of the test
promotion variables, either randomly or based on feedback from the
analysis of other test promotions or from the analysis of the
general public promotion.
[0109] FIG. 8 shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the
invention, a general hardware/network view of the forward-looking
promotion optimization system 800. In general, the various
functions discussed may be implemented as software modules, which
may be implemented in one or more servers (including actual and/or
virtual servers). In FIG. 8, there is shown a test promotion
generation module 802 for generating the test promotions in
accordance with test promotion variables. There is also shown a
population segmentation module 804 for generating the segmented
subpopulations in accordance with segmentation criteria. There is
also shown a test promotion administration module 806 for
administering the plurality of test promotions to the plurality of
segmented subpopulations. There is also shown an analysis module
808 for analyzing the responses to the test promotions as discussed
earlier. There is also shown a general population promotion
generation module 810 for generating the general population
promotion using the analysis result of the data from the test
promotions. There is also shown a module 812, representing the
software/hardware module for receiving the responses. Module 812
may represent, for example, the point of sale terminal in a store,
a shopping basket on an online shopping website, an app on a smart
phone, a webpage displayed on a computer, a social media news feed,
etc. where user responses can be received.
[0110] One or more of modules 802-812 may be implemented on one or
more servers, as mentioned. A database 814 is shown, representing
the data store for user data and/or test promotion and/or general
public promotion data and/or response data. Database 814 may be
implemented by a single database or by multiple databases. The
servers and database(s) may be coupled together using a local area
network, an intranet, the internet, or any combination thereof
(shown by reference number 830).
[0111] User interaction for test promotion administration and/or
acquiring user responses may take place via one or more of user
interaction devices. Examples of such user interaction devices are
wired laptop 840, wired computer 844, wireless laptop 846, wireless
smart phone or tablet 848. Test promotions may also be administered
via printing/mailing module 850, which communicates the test
promotions to the users via mailings 852 or printed circular 854.
The example components of FIG. 8 are only illustrative and are not
meant to be limiting of the scope of the invention. The general
public promotion, once generated, may also be communicated to the
public using some or all of the user interaction devices/methods
discussed herein.
Modifications & Additions
[0112] Many modifications and additions to the above described
embodiments are possible. For example, intelligent offers for
dynamic base prices can be provided.
[0113] Consumer packaged goods (CPG) are relatively low-cost
products that are purchased frequently by consumers; examples
include beverages, packaged foods, toiletries and other consumable
goods. Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) are highly perishable
items such as fruits and vegetables, baked goods, meat and dairy
products.
[0114] Because CPG and FMCG are purchased so frequently,
manufacturers of these goods often use promotional coupons or other
discount offers to increase sales volume during a particular time
period.
[0115] Promotional offers can take the form of a fixed monetary
discount (such as $1 off an item), a percentage discount (such as
10% off a product's base price) or some type of bundling (such as
buy one, get one free).
[0116] A base price for a product is the undiscounted price for
that product, and is typically set by the manufacturer. As with
nearly all CPG or FMCG, the base price of a particular product may
vary significantly from week to week, day to day, or even hour to
hour. The price a consumer pays a retailer for a promoted product
therefore depends both on the product's base price at the time of
purchase and the value of the discount.
[0117] The manufacturer's cost or investment for each promotion
equals the monetary cost of the discount for an item multiplied by
sales volume of that discounted item. For instance, if a
manufacturer offers $1 off a gallon of milk during a particular
week, and it sells 50,000 gallons of milk that week, the cost or
investment for that discount program is $50,000.
[0118] A manufacturer's promotional program for a product may last
for a number of hours, days or weeks, and typically has at least
three goals: (1) maximize sales volume, while (2) staying within a
specified cost/investment for the promotion, while also (3) keeping
the discounted price for the product above a certain threshold.
These goals can be difficult or impossible to achieve when the base
price of a product changes over a shorter time scale than duration
of the promotional program.
[0119] Disclosed embodiments meet these goals by monitoring a
product's real-time price fluctuations; using predictive techniques
(such as Markov chains, machine learning, or other predictive
tools) and optimization techniques (combinatorial optimizations and
linear programming) to select an optimal depth of discount that is
valid for a fraction of the promotional program; and limiting the
discount to prevent a promoted price from falling below a
predefined or dynamically generated threshold.
Sales Volume During the Promotional Program
[0120] In the following examples, the unit sales of a promoted
product during week t of an n-week promotional program will be
represented by the term p.sub.t. The total sales of the promoted
product during a multi-week promotion can therefore be represented
as the sum of each week's sales, represented as follows:
.SIGMA..sub.t=1.sup.np.sub.t
[0121] Where: [0122] t=week number; [0123] n=number of weeks in the
promotion; and [0124] p.sub.t=unit sales of the promoted product
during week t
[0125] In the examples discussed here, the unit of time t is one
week; however, it should be understood that the unit of time t
could be any time unit or combination of time units, ranging from
fractions of seconds to years.
Total Budget/Investment During the Promotional Program
[0126] During a promotional program, the manufacturer's
cost/investment or budget for a given week (B.sub.t) equals the
promoted product's sales volume for that week (p.sub.t), multiplied
by both the product's base price for that week (x.sub.t) and the
percentage discount for that week (d.sub.t):
B.sub.t=d.sub.tx.sub.tp.sub.t
[0127] The manufacturer's total cost/investment for the duration of
the program can therefore be represented by the following
summation:
t = 1 n d t .times. x t .times. p t ##EQU00001##
[0128] As discussed earlier, manufacturers often attempt to keep
the total cost/investment for a promotional program below a total
budget B. This goal can be represented by the following
inequality:
t = 1 n d t .times. x t .times. p t .ltoreq. B ##EQU00002##
[0129] Where: [0130] t=week number; [0131] n=number of weeks in the
promotion; [0132] d.sub.t=percent discount during week t; [0133]
x.sub.t=base price of the promoted product during week t; [0134]
p.sub.t=unit sales of the promoted product during week t; and
[0135] B=total cost/investment for the promotion
Choosing an Optimal Percentage Discount (d.sub.t) for the Promoted
Product
[0136] Again, a product's base price may vary over relatively short
time scales; however, the manner in which base prices change is not
entirely unpredictable. As with stock and commodity price
fluctuations, predictive analytics techniques make it possible to
create models that will predict--with reasonable accuracy--how a
product's base price varies over the time period of a promotion.
Those skilled in the art will understand that these models can be
created using Markov chains, other forms of Markov models, machine
learning, artificial intelligence, or other similar techniques.
[0137] To maximize unit sales of a promoted product during the
promotion, embodiments use the predictive analytics techniques
discussed above, in combination with optimization techniques (such
as linear programming and other techniques) to calculate the
optimal discount for current week t (d.sub.t), given the base price
during current week t (x.sub.t).
[0138] Embodiments ensures that the net price during current week
t, (1-d.sub.t)x.sub.t, is greater than or equal to a minimum net
price (P), or a variable or dynamically generated minimum net price
(P.sub.t); this can be represented by the following:
(1-d.sub.t)x.sub.t.gtoreq.P
Where:
[0139] d.sub.t=percent discount during week t; [0140] x.sub.t=base
price of the promoted product during week t; and [0141] P (or
P.sub.t)=lowest allowable price of the promoted product during the
promotion, or during week t
[0142] FIG. 9 is a flow chart showing an embodiment in which a
promoted product's optimum discount for each week is selected to
maximize total unit sales during the promotion, while keeping the
total cost of the promotional program within a budget and keeping
the net price of the discounted product above a threshold.
[0143] Beginning at step 902, the current base price for the
promoted product x.sub.t is received. Also at step 902, the
remaining program budget B, remaining program duration and minimum
discounted price P or P.sub.t for the promoted product are either
received, generated or calculated.
[0144] At step 904, a predictive model of future base prices is
created or updated using the current base price for the promoted
product x.sub.t and previous base price data for the promoted
product (if available).
[0145] At step 906, an optimum discount for the current week
(d.sub.t) is calculated to maximize sales for the duration of the
promotional program and to remain within the budget B for the
promotional program. This optimum discount is calculated using the
predictive model created or updated in step 904, optimization
techniques such as linear programming, the remaining budget, time
remaining in the promotion, and the minimum discounted price P.
[0146] If the promotional program is complete (step 908), the
process ends (step 910); if not, the process returns to step 902.
This process may be run continuously, or it may be run
periodically, such as once per hour or once per week.
[0147] FIGS. 10A and 10B illustrate an example of how the process
described in FIG. 9 is used to calculate discounts over the course
of a multi-week promotion, given a manufacturer's total budget for
the promotion B (in this example, $40,000) and base prices x.sub.t
that vary over time. In this example, the promotion lasts for 8
weeks; but again, both the total length of the promotional program
and the time period over which base prices change depends on the
product, the manufacturer and market conditions.
[0148] As shown by the exemplary FIGS. 10A and 10B, in weeks 1 and
2, there is no promotion or investment from the manufacturer.
[0149] In week 3, the base price (x.sub.3) shifts upward from
$14.99 to $15.25. In response, the system selects an optimal 21.38%
($3.26) discount, resulting in an $11.99 promoted price. In this
example, there were 1280 units sold during week 3 of the promotion,
so the total cost to the manufacturer through the end of week 3
equals $4,172.80 ($3.26.times.1280) of the $40,000 program budget.
The base price does not shift during week 4, and the discount is
unchanged; however, the system may in some cases change the
discount from week to week, even if the base price of the promoted
product does not change because of changes in the predictive model
or the optimization process.
[0150] Week 5 shows a change upward in the base price x.sub.5 to
15.75; the system responds with a change in both the percentage
discount and the discounted price.
[0151] In week 6, the base price shifts downward to $13.00. In this
example, the system initially calculates an optimal discount of
26.92%; however, this level of discount would result in a net
promoted price of $9.50, which is less than the minimum net unit
price P (for the duration of the promotion) of $9.99. In response,
the system calculates a smaller discount of 23.15% (shown in week
6a), which is above the net price minimum.
[0152] After 8 weeks, the total investment, $34,091.80, comes under
the total budget allotted, while maximizing the total sales during
that time period.
[0153] While this invention has been described in terms of several
embodiments, there are alterations, modifications, permutations,
and substitute equivalents, which fall within the scope of this
invention. Although sub-section titles have been provided to aid in
the description of the invention, these titles are merely
illustrative and are not intended to limit the scope of the present
invention. It should also be noted that there are many alternative
ways of implementing the methods and apparatuses of the present
invention. It is therefore intended that the following appended
claims be interpreted as including all such alterations,
modifications, permutations, and substitute equivalents as fall
within the true spirit and scope of the present invention.
* * * * *