U.S. patent application number 14/980821 was filed with the patent office on 2016-06-30 for methods and apparatus to correct for deterioration of a demographic model to associate demographic information with media impression information.
The applicant listed for this patent is The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Invention is credited to Matthew B. Reid, Michael Sheppard, Jonathan Sullivan, Alejandro Terrazas.
Application Number | 20160191970 14/980821 |
Document ID | / |
Family ID | 56164690 |
Filed Date | 2016-06-30 |
United States Patent
Application |
20160191970 |
Kind Code |
A1 |
Sheppard; Michael ; et
al. |
June 30, 2016 |
METHODS AND APPARATUS TO CORRECT FOR DETERIORATION OF A DEMOGRAPHIC
MODEL TO ASSOCIATE DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION WITH MEDIA IMPRESSION
INFORMATION
Abstract
Methods and apparatus to correct for deterioration of a
demographic model to associate demographic information with media
impression information are disclosed. An example method includes
estimating first and second ages of audience members based on
demographic information; estimating a third age of an audience
member who is not included in the audience members; applying a
window function to the second ages to determine a distribution of
ages based on the third age; multiplying window values by the first
ages to determine corrected first age components; dividing a total
of the corrected first age components by a sum of the window values
to determine an estimated age of the audience member at a first
time; and determining the corrected age of the audience member at a
second time based on the estimated age of the audience member at
the first time and a time difference between the first and second
times.
Inventors: |
Sheppard; Michael;
(Brooklyn, NY) ; Sullivan; Jonathan; (Hurricane,
UT) ; Reid; Matthew B.; (Alameda, CA) ;
Terrazas; Alejandro; (Santa Cruz, CA) |
|
Applicant: |
Name |
City |
State |
Country |
Type |
The Nielsen Company (US), LLC |
New York |
NY |
US |
|
|
Family ID: |
56164690 |
Appl. No.: |
14/980821 |
Filed: |
December 28, 2015 |
Related U.S. Patent Documents
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Application
Number |
Filing Date |
Patent Number |
|
|
62098787 |
Dec 31, 2014 |
|
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|
Current U.S.
Class: |
725/14 |
Current CPC
Class: |
H04N 21/812 20130101;
G06Q 30/0204 20130101; H04N 21/252 20130101; H04N 21/4532 20130101;
H04N 21/25883 20130101; H04N 21/4665 20130101 |
International
Class: |
H04N 21/258 20060101
H04N021/258; H04N 21/45 20060101 H04N021/45; H04N 21/466 20060101
H04N021/466; H04N 21/25 20060101 H04N021/25 |
Claims
1. A method to correct for deterioration of a demographic model to
associate demographic information with media impression
information, comprising: collecting, at a processor at an audience
measurement entity, messages indicating first impressions of a
media item delivered to devices via the Internet, the messages
identifying the media item presented at the devices; receiving, at
the processor at the audience measurement entity, first demographic
information describing first numbers of impressions of the media
item and first numbers of audience members attributed to respective
demographic groups by a database proprietor, the first numbers of
the impressions and the first numbers of audience members
corresponding to the first impressions of the media; estimating
first ages of the audience members based on the first demographic
information, the first ages corresponding to a first time;
estimating second ages of the audience members based on the first
demographic information, the second ages corresponding to a second
time after the first time; estimating a third age of an audience
member who is not included in the audience members from the
database proprietor, the third age corresponding to the second
time; estimating a corrected age of the audience member at the
second time by: applying a window function to the second ages to
determine a distribution of ages based on the third age of the
audience member as a mean of the distribution; multiplying window
values of the second ages by respective ones of the first ages to
determine corrected first age components; summing the corrected
first age components and dividing a total of the corrected first
age components by a sum of the window values to determine an
estimated age of the audience member at the first time; and
determining the corrected age of the audience member at the second
time based on the estimated age of the audience member at the first
time and a time difference between the first and second times; and
determining ratings information for the media by attributing
impressions and audience counts to the media using the corrected
age of the audience member instead of the third age.
2. The method as defined in claim 1, wherein the window function
includes a probability density function based on a Gaussian
distribution.
3. The method as defined in claim 1, wherein the estimating of the
first ages includes determining a predicted age probability density
function.
4. The method as defined in claim 3, wherein the estimating of the
second ages includes applying an aging factor to an age bucket in
the predicted age probability density function.
5. The method as defined in claim 1, further including selecting
the audience members from a larger set of audience members based on
the second ages being within an age range, the age range being
based on the third age.
6. The method as defined in claim 1, further including transmitting
audience measurement entity identifiers to the devices in response
to at least a portion of the messages, the estimating of the third
age being in response to determining, based on the audience member
not being associated with an audience measurement entity
identifier, that the audience member has not been previously
identified.
7. The method as defined in claim 6, further including sending
re-direct messages in response to at least a portion of the
messages, the re-direct messages to cause at least a portion of the
devices to send third messages to the database proprietor, the
first demographic information being received based on the third
messages.
8. An apparatus to correct for deterioration of a demographic model
to associate demographic information with media impression
information, comprising: a first impressions collector to collect
messages indicating first impressions of a media item delivered to
devices via the Internet, the messages identifying the media item
presented at the devices; a second impressions collector to receive
first demographic information describing first numbers of
impressions of the media item and first numbers of audience members
attributed to respective demographic groups by a database
proprietor, the first numbers of the impressions and the first
numbers of audience members corresponding to the first impressions
of the media; an age predictor to: estimate first ages of the
audience members based on the first demographic information, the
first ages corresponding to a first time; estimate second ages of
the audience members based on the first demographic information,
the second ages corresponding to a second time after the first
time; estimate a third age of an audience member who is not
included in the audience members from the database proprietor, the
third age corresponding to the second time; a model corrector to:
apply a window function to the second ages to determine a
distribution of ages based on the third age of the audience member
as a mean of the distribution; multiply window values of the second
ages by respective ones of the first ages to determine corrected
first age components; divide a sum of the corrected first age
components by a sum of the window values to determine an estimated
age of the audience member at the first time; and determine the
corrected age of the audience member at the second time based on
the estimated age of the audience member at the first time and a
time difference between the first and second times; and a ratings
determiner to determine ratings information for the media by
attributing impressions and audience counts to the media using the
corrected age of the audience member instead of the third age.
9. The apparatus as defined in claim 8, wherein the model corrector
is to apply the window function by applying a probability density
function based on a Gaussian distribution.
10. The apparatus as defined in claim 8, wherein the age predictor
is to estimate the first ages by determining a predicted age
probability density function.
11. The apparatus as defined in claim 10, wherein the age predictor
is to estimate the second ages by applying an aging factor to an
age bucket in the predicted age probability density function.
12. The apparatus as defined in claim 8, wherein the model
corrector is to select the audience members from a larger set of
audience members based on the second ages being within an age
range, the age range being based on the third age.
13. The apparatus as defined in claim 8, wherein the first
impressions collector is to transmit audience measurement entity
identifiers to the devices in response to at least a portion of the
messages, the age predictor to estimate of the third age in
response to determining, based on the audience member not being
associated with an audience measurement entity identifier, that the
audience member has not been previously identified.
14. The apparatus as defined in claim 8, wherein the first
impressions collector is to send re-direct messages in response to
at least a portion of the messages, the re-direct messages to cause
at least a portion of the devices to send third messages to the
database proprietor, the first demographic information being
received based on the third messages.
15. A tangible computer readable storage medium comprising computer
readable instructions which, when executed, cause a processor to at
least: collect messages indicating first impressions of a media
item delivered to devices via the Internet, the messages
identifying the media item presented at the devices; access first
demographic information describing first numbers of impressions of
the media item and first numbers of audience members attributed to
respective demographic groups by a database proprietor, the first
numbers of the impressions and the first numbers of audience
members corresponding to the first impressions of the media;
estimate first ages of the audience members based on the first
demographic information, the first ages corresponding to a first
time; estimate second ages of the audience members based on the
first demographic information, the second ages corresponding to a
second time after the first time; estimate a third age of an
audience member who is not included in the audience members from
the database proprietor, the third age corresponding to the second
time; estimate a corrected age of the audience member at the second
time by: applying a window function to the second ages to determine
a distribution of ages based on the third age of the audience
member as a mean of the distribution; multiply window values of the
second ages by respective ones of the first ages to determine
corrected first age components; summing the corrected first age
components and dividing a total of the corrected first age
components by a sum of the window values to determine an estimated
age of the audience member at the first time; and determining the
corrected age of the audience member at the second time based on
the estimated age of the audience member at the first time and a
time difference between the first and second times; and determine
ratings information for the media by attributing impressions and
audience counts to the media using the corrected age of the
audience member instead of the third age.
16. The tangible computer readable storage medium as defined in
claim 15, wherein the window function includes a probability
density function based on a Gaussian distribution.
17. The tangible computer readable storage medium as defined in
claim 15, wherein the instructions are to cause the processor to
estimate the first ages by determining a predicted age probability
density function.
18. The tangible computer readable storage medium as defined in
claim 17, wherein the instructions are to cause the processor to
estimate the second ages by applying an aging factor to an age
bucket in the predicted age probability density function.
19. The tangible computer readable storage medium as defined in
claim 15, wherein the instructions are further to cause the
processor to select the audience members from a larger set of
audience members based on the second ages being within an age
range, the age range being based on the third age.
20. The tangible computer readable storage medium as defined in
claim 15, wherein the instructions are further to cause the
processor to transmit audience measurement entity identifiers to
the devices in response to at least a portion of the messages, the
instructions to cause the processor to estimate the third age in
response to determining, based on the audience member not being
associated with an audience measurement entity identifier, that the
audience member has not been previously identified.
Description
RELATED APPLICATIONS
[0001] This patent claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Patent
Application Ser. No. 62/098,787, filed Dec. 31, 2014, which is
herein incorporated by reference in its entirety.
FIELD OF THE DISCLOSURE
[0002] This disclosure relates generally to audience measurement,
and, more particularly, to methods and apparatus to correct for
deterioration of a demographic model to associate demographic
information with media impression information.
BACKGROUND
[0003] Traditionally, audience measurement entities determine
audience engagement levels for media based on registered panel
members. That is, an audience measurement entity enrolls people who
consent to being monitored into a panel. The audience measurement
entity then monitors those panel members to determine media (e.g.,
television programs or radio programs, movies, DVDs,
advertisements, streaming media, websites, etc.) exposed to those
panel members. In this manner, the audience measurement entity can
determine exposure metrics for different media based on the
collected media measurement data.
[0004] Techniques for monitoring user access to Internet resources
such as web pages, advertisements and/or other Internet-accessible
media have evolved significantly over the years. Some known systems
perform such monitoring primarily through server logs. In
particular, entities serving media on the Internet can use known
techniques to log the number of requests received for their media
(e.g., content and/or advertisements) at their server.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0005] FIG. 1 illustrates an example system to collect impressions
of media presented at computing devices and to produce aggregate
age-correction demographic impression data.
[0006] FIG. 2 illustrates an example system to collect impressions
of media presented at mobile devices and to correct the impressions
for age misattribution at the audience measurement entity.
[0007] FIG. 3 illustrates an example implementation of the example
age corrector of FIGS. 1 and 2 to correct age misattributions in
media impressions.
[0008] FIG. 4 illustrates example age distribution functions used
to correct age misattribution.
[0009] FIG. 5 illustrates an example data structure to store
predicted age distribution functions for the subscribers of a
database proprietor.
[0010] FIG. 6 is an example communication flow diagram of an
example manner in which an audience measurement entity and a
database proprietor can collect impressions and demographic
information based on a client device reporting impressions to the
audience measurement entity and the database proprietor.
[0011] FIG. 7 is a flow diagram representative of example machine
readable instructions that may be executed to implement the example
age corrector of FIGS. 1, 2, and/or 5 to age misattributions in
media impressions.
[0012] FIG. 8 is a flow diagram representative of example machine
readable instructions that may be executed to implement the example
age updater of FIG. 5 to probabilistically age a prediction age
distribution function.
[0013] FIG. 9 is a flow diagram representative of example machine
readable instructions that may be executed to implement the example
demographic impression aggregator of FIG. 1 to aggregate
demographic impressions to be sent to the audience measurement
entity.
[0014] FIG. 10 is a block diagram of an example processor system
structured to execute the example machine readable instructions
represented by FIG. 7, 8, 9 and/or 13 to implement the example age
corrector of FIGS. 1, 2, 5, and/or 6.
[0015] FIG. 11 depicts an example system to collect impressions of
media presented on mobile devices and to collect user information
from distributed database proprietors for associating with the
collected impressions.
[0016] FIG. 12 depicts an example classification tree that may be
employed to generate an age prediction model that uses subscriber
activity metrics to predict real ages of subscribers of a database
proprietor.
[0017] FIG. 13 is a flow diagram representative of example machine
readable instructions that may be executed to implement the example
audience measurement entity of FIG. 6 to correct for time-based
deterioration of an age prediction model.
[0018] FIG. 14 is a graph of an example distribution that may be
generated by the model corrector of FIG. 3 to correct for
deterioration of the age prediction model for a first example
estimated age.
[0019] FIG. 15 is a graph of another example distribution that may
be generated by the model corrector of FIG. 3 to correct for
deterioration of the age prediction model for a second example
estimated age.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0020] Examples disclosed herein may be used to correct age-based
demographic group misattribution errors in impressions collected by
database proprietors. As used herein, an impression is an instance
of a person's exposure to media (e.g., content, advertising, etc.).
When an impression is logged to track an audience member's exposure
to particular media, the impression may be associated with
demographics of the person corresponding to the impression. This is
referred to as attributing demographic data to an impression, or
attributing an impression to demographic data. As used herein, a
demographic impression is an impression with attributed demographic
data. In this manner, media consumption behaviors of audiences
and/or media exposure across different demographic groups can be
measured. Example demographic groups include demographic groups
defined by a range of ages (sometimes referred to herein as
"age-based demographic groups" and/or "demographic buckets"). For
example, demographic buckets may be defined for ages 8-12, 13-17,
18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65+. However, age-based
demographic group misattribution errors in collected impressions
can occur when the actual age of the person corresponding to the
impression is different than the reported age of the person. Such
misattribution errors decrease the accuracy of audience
measurement. To improve accuracies of impression data having
age-based demographic group misattribution errors, examples
disclosed herein may be used to predict the actual age of a person,
storing that prediction, and calculating an updated age when an
impression corresponding to that person is logged.
[0021] In some cases, an age prediction model uses baseline
information (e.g., from a database proprietor) to estimate the age
of an audience member (e.g., a subscriber to a service of the
database proprietor) when the audience member is exposed to a media
campaign. In some examples, the age prediction model has the
highest accuracy that the model can provide on the day the baseline
information was obtained, and the accuracy of the age prediction
model degrades afterwards at some rate of deterioration. This
accuracy deterioration may be negligible for short term
measurements. However, using an old model to predict a person's age
would potentially result in biased estimates of the person's
age.
[0022] Disclosed examples increase the useful life of an age
prediction model. That is, disclosed examples lengthen the time
that an age prediction model can be used to predict ages of
anonymous audience members between calibrations. Because certain
audiences may be anonymous (e.g., personally identifiable
information may not be obtained or obtainable) for technical and/or
privacy reasons, measurement of media viewing occurring over the
Internet occurs in aggregate and demographic information must be
modeled and/or corrected for sources of bias that are inherent to
online audience measurement. Example methods and apparatus
disclosed herein provide an improvement to the field of audience
measurement by increasing the accuracy of measurement for audience
demographics, given a set of audience information that is valid at
a first time and changes over time. Such audience information may
not be available at a later time. While re-calibration and/or
re-training of a model may be performed, in many cases such
re-calibration and/or re-training may be expensive (e.g., to
repeatedly purchase new, up-to-date data), and/or impractical or
impossible (e.g., if up-to-date data is not readily available).
Disclosed examples increase the efficiency of audience measurement
by reducing the computing resources that would be used to
repeatedly rebuild an age prediction model to obtain a desired
accuracy of the age prediction over time.
[0023] An audience measurement entity (AME) measures the
composition and size of audiences consuming media to produce
ratings. Ratings are used by advertisers and/or marketers to
purchase advertising space and/or design advertising campaigns.
Additionally, media producers and/or distributors use the ratings
to determine how to set prices for advertising space and/or to make
programming decisions. As increasing numbers of audience members
use computers (e.g., desktop computers, laptop computers, etc.),
portable devices (e.g., tablets, smartphones, etc.), gaming
consoles (e.g., Xbox One.RTM., Playstation.RTM. 4, etc.) and/or
online media presentation devices (e.g., Google Chromecast,
Roku.RTM. Streaming Stick.RTM., etc.) (sometimes collectively
referred to herein as "computing devices") to access media,
advertisers and/or marketers are interested in accurately
calculated ratings (e.g., online campaign ratings, etc.) for media
accessed on these devices.
[0024] To measure audiences on computing devices, an AME may use
instructions (e.g., Java, java script, or any other computer
language or script) embedded in media as describe below in
connection with FIG. 6 to collect information indicating when
audience members access media on computing devices. Additionally,
one or more user and/or device identifiers (e.g., an international
mobile equipment identity (IMEI), a mobile equipment identifier
(MEID), a media access control (MAC) address, a web browser unique
identifier (e.g., a cookie), an app store identifier, an open
source unique device identifier (OpenUDID), an open device
identification number (ODIN), a login identifier, a username, an
email address, user agent data, third-party service identifiers,
web storage data, document object model (DOM) storage data, local
shared objects, an automobile vehicle identification number (VIN),
etc.) located on a computing device allow a partnered database
proprietor (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, Google, Yahoo!, MSN, Apple,
Experian, etc.) to identify demographic information (e.g., age,
gender, geographic location, race, income level, education level,
religion, etc.) for the audience member of the computing device
collected via a user registration process. For example, an audience
member may be accessing an episode of "Boardwalk Empire" made
available by a media streaming service (e.g. via a website, via an
app, etc.). In that instance, in response to instructions executing
within the browser or the app, a user/device identifier stored on
the computing device is sent to the AME and/or a partner database
proprietor to associate the instance of media exposure (e.g., an
impression) to corresponding demographic data of the audience
member. The database proprietor can then send logged demographic
impression data to the AME for use by the AME in generating, for
example, media ratings and/or other audience measures. In some
examples, the partner database proprietor does not provide
individualized demographic data (e.g., user-level demographics) in
association with logged impressions. Instead, in some examples, the
partnered database proprietor provides aggregate demographic
impression data (sometime referred to herein as "aggregate census
data"). For example, the aggregate demographic impression data
provided by the partner database proprietor may state that a
thousand males, ages 18-24, watched the episode of "Boardwalk
Empire" in the last seven days via computing devices. The aggregate
demographic data from the partner database proprietor does not
identify individual persons (e.g., is not user-level data)
associated with individual impressions. In some examples, the
database proprietor provides anonymized user-level data (e.g.,
user-level data with personally identifiable information removed)
and/or a subset of anonymized user-level data (e.g., gender,
demographic bucket, activity metrics, race/ethnicity, etc.) to the
AME. In this manner, the database proprietor protects the privacies
of its subscribers/users by not revealing their identities to the
AME.
[0025] The AME uses this census data to calculate ratings and/or
other audience measures for corresponding media. However, during
the process of registering with the database proprietor, a
subscriber may lie or may otherwise be inaccurate about the
subscriber's age information (e.g., age, birth date, etc.). For
example, a potential subscriber below a required age (e.g.,
thirteen, eighteen, twenty-one, etc.) may be prevented from
registering with the database proprietor unless the potential
subscriber enters a false, but eligible, birth date. Often in such
examples, the subscriber does not correct the provided age even
after the user's true age is above the required age. As such,
impressions collected by a database proprietor for such subscribers
will potentially be attributed to the wrong age-based demographic
group. For example, if a ten-year old person, during the
registration process, represents that he a thirteen years old, the
impression data associated with that subscriber will be
misattributed to a thirteen-year old person instead of a ten-year
old person.
[0026] The effect of large-scale misattribution error may create
measurement bias error by incorrectly representing the demographic
distribution of impressions across a large audience and, therefore,
misrepresenting the audience demographics of impressions collected
for advertisements and/or other media to which exposure is
monitored by the AME. For example, when subscribers initially
provide inaccurate age information at registration (e.g., report
that they are older than they are, etc.), measured audience
demographics may be skewed older than the actual audience
demographics. For example, a misattribution error may cause an
impression that should be assigned to a certain demographic bucket
to be assigned to a different demographic bucket. For example, if
the actual age of a subscriber is twenty-two (e.g., in an ages
19-24 demographic bucket), but the reported age of the subscriber
is twenty-five (e.g., in an ages 25-34 demographic bucket), the
misattribution error would cause an impression corresponding to
that subscriber to be assigned to the wrong demographic bucket
(e.g., the ages 25-34 demographic bucket instead of the ages 19-24
demographic bucket).
[0027] To correct impression data for age-based demographic group
misattribution errors, the AME uses an age prediction model to
predict the real age of a database proprietor subscriber. The age
prediction model uses activity metrics (e.g., frequency of login,
type of computing device used to login, number of connections
(e.g., friends, contacts, etc.), privacy settings, etc.) of
database proprietor subscribers to assign an age probability
density function (PDF) to the subscribers of the database
proprietor. In some examples, through generating the age prediction
model, sets of age PDFs are defined by the AME. The age PDFs define
probabilities that the real age of a subscriber is within certain
demographic buckets (e.g., age-range buckets). For example, an age
PDF may state that the probability that the subscriber is in the
2-7 year-old demographic bucket is 0%, the probability that the
subscriber is in the 8-12 year-old demographic bucket is 0%, the
probability that the subscriber is in the 13-17 year-old
demographic bucket is 7%, the probability that the subscriber is in
the 18-24 year-old demographic bucket is 18%, the probability that
the subscriber is in the 25-34 year-old demographic bucket is 63%,
the probability that the subscriber is in the 35-44 year-old
demographic bucket is 11%, the probability that the subscriber is
in the 45-54 year-old demographic bucket is 1%, the probability
that the subscriber is in the 55-64 year-old demographic bucket is
0%, and the probability that the subscriber is in the 65+ year-old
demographic bucket is 0%.
[0028] The predicted age of the subscriber predicted by the age
prediction model is used as part of the demographic data that is
attributed to the impression. However, the predictive value of the
age prediction model degrades over time as subscriber behaviors
(e.g., as measured by subscriber activity metrics) on which the age
prediction model is based change over time. For example, an age
prediction model can be developed on day d=0, based on subscriber
behaviors that are true as of day d=0 for different age groups. As
subscriber behaviors change for a particular age group over time,
the same age prediction model will generate inaccurate results when
used at a later time. For example, at day d=0, a typical 21-24
year-old male may log into Internet services via a mobile phone for
30% of his total logins. However, at day d=183 (6 months), 21-24
year old males might log in to Internet services using mobile
phones for 50% of total logins. As such, the age prediction model
generated at day d=0 based on a device type criterion will generate
inaccurate results when used on day d=183 due to how log in
behaviors have generally changed for subscribers in the 21-24
year-old male age-based demographic group. To counteract the
degradation of the age prediction model's predictive value, the AME
may, from time to time, regenerate the model. However, generating
the age prediction model requires considerable resources (e.g.,
time, processing power, bandwidth, memory usage, etc.). Between the
time the age prediction model is generated and the time that the
age prediction model is used to predict age, the likelihood that
some age predictions (e.g., the terminal node assignments) made by
the age prediction model may be inaccurate increases over time.
[0029] As disclosed below, to increase accuracies of ages
attributed to impressions between the time the age prediction model
is generated and the time that the age prediction will be
regenerated, the AME and/or the database proprietor predicts the
ages of the subscribers of a database subscriber when the age
prediction model is initially generated. The age predictions are
stored in an age-cache with, for example, a user identifier (UID),
an age PDF assigned by the age prediction model, and the date the
prediction was made. A UID is used by the database proprietor to
identify user activity. For example, a UID may be a device/user
identifier, a user name, an alphanumeric code randomly generated
when the user registers, an anonymized identifier, an email
address, etc. In some examples, the AME and/or the database
proprietor, to protect subscriber privacy, do not store activity
metrics on which the age prediction is based in the age-cache.
[0030] When impression data corresponding to a subscriber is
received, instead of generating a new age PDF through the age
prediction model, the predicted age PDF for that subscriber is
retrieved from the age-cache and is probabilistically aged. That
is, the age PDF is adjusted to account for the probability of the
subscriber aging into a new demographic bucket between the date
that the age prediction model was used and the date the impression
was logged. The adjusted age PDF is then attributed to the
corresponding impression.
[0031] The AME may, from time to time, still regenerate the age
prediction model. However, the time between regenerating the age
prediction model may be extended because the degradation of the
model has been ameliorated by probabilistically aging the predicted
age PDFs. In such a manner, computing resources are conserved by
decreasing the number of times the age prediction model needs to be
generated to determine acceptably accurate ages. In some examples,
upon regenerating the age prediction model, the AME and/or database
proprietor may use the age prediction model to assign predicted age
PDFs to the subscribers of the database proprietor. In some
examples, the AME and/or database proprietor may assign age PDFs to
all of the subscribers after generating an age prediction model. In
some examples, to conserve processing resources, the AME and/or
database proprietor may use the age prediction model to assign
predicted age PDFs to subscribers that have registered with the
database proprietor since the last age prediction model was
generated (e.g., new subscribers).
[0032] Disclosed example methods correct for deterioration of a
demographic model to associate demographic information with media
impression information. Some example methods include collecting, at
a processor at an audience measurement entity, messages indicating
first impressions of a media item delivered to devices via the
Internet. In some examples, the messages identify the media item
presented at the devices. Some example methods include receiving,
at the processor at the audience measurement entity, first
demographic information describing first numbers of impressions of
the media item and first numbers of audience members attributed to
respective demographic groups by a database proprietor. In some
example methods, the first numbers of the impressions and the first
numbers of audience members correspond to the first impressions of
the media. Some disclosed example methods include estimating first
ages of the audience members based on the first demographic
information, estimating second ages of the audience members based
on the first demographic information, and estimating a third age of
an audience member who is not included in the audience members from
the database proprietor. In some example methods, the first ages
correspond to a first time, the second ages and the third age
correspond to a second time after the first time. Disclosed example
methods include estimating a corrected age of the audience member
at the second time. In some example methods, the estimating the
corrected age includes applying a window function to the second
ages to determine a distribution of ages based on the third age of
the audience member as a mean of the distribution, multiplying
window values of the second ages by respective ones of the first
ages to determine corrected first age components, summing the
corrected first age components and dividing a total of the
corrected first age components by a sum of the window values to
determine an estimated age of the audience member at the first
time, and determining the corrected age of the audience member at
the second time based on the estimated age of the audience member
at the first time and a time difference between the first and
second times. Disclosed example methods also include determining
ratings information for the media by attributing impressions and
audience counts to the media using the corrected age of the
audience member instead of the third age.
[0033] In some example methods, the window function includes a
probability density function based on a Gaussian distribution. In
some examples, the estimating of the first ages includes
determining a predicted age probability density function. In some
examples, the estimating of the second ages includes applying an
aging factor to an age bucket in the predicted age probability
density function. Some disclose example methods further include
selecting the audience members from a larger set of audience
members based on the second ages being within an age range. In some
examples, the age range is based on the third age.
[0034] Some disclosed example methods further include transmitting
audience measurement entity identifiers to the devices in response
to at least a portion of the messages. In some examples, the
estimating of the third age is in response to determining, based on
the audience member not being associated with an audience
measurement entity identifier, that the audience member has not
been previously identified. Some disclosed example methods further
include sending re-direct messages in response to at least a
portion of the messages. In some examples, the re-direct messages
cause at least a portion of the devices to send third messages to
the database proprietor and the first demographic information is
received based on the third messages.
[0035] Disclosed example apparatus to associate demographic
information with media impressions and audience using a
deteriorated demographic model include a first impressions
collector, a second impressions collector, an age predictor, a
model corrector, and a ratings determiner. In some disclosed
examples, the first impressions collector collects messages
indicating first impressions of a media item delivered to devices
via the Internet. In some examples, the messages identify the media
item presented at the devices. In some disclosed example apparatus,
the second impressions collector receives first demographic
information describing first numbers of impressions of the media
item and first numbers of audience members attributed to respective
demographic groups by a database proprietor. In some examples, the
first numbers of the impressions and the first numbers of audience
members corresponding to the first impressions of the media. In
some disclosed example apparatus, the age predictor to estimates
first ages of the audience members based on the first demographic
information, estimates second ages of the audience members based on
the first demographic information, and estimates a third age of an
audience member who is not included in the audience members from
the database proprietor. In some examples, the first ages
correspond to a first time and the second ages and the third age
correspond to a second time after the first time. In some disclosed
examples, the model corrector applies a window function to the
second ages to determine a distribution of ages based on the third
age of the audience member as a mean of the distribution,
multiplies window values of the second ages by respective ones of
the first ages to determine corrected first age components, divides
a sum of the corrected first age components by a sum of the window
values to determine an estimated age of the audience member at the
first time, and determines the corrected age of the audience member
at the second time based on the estimated age of the audience
member at the first time and a time difference between the first
and second times. In some disclosed apparatus, the ratings
determiner determines ratings information for the media by
attributing impressions and audience counts to the media using the
corrected age of the audience member instead of the third age.
[0036] In some examples, the model corrector applies the window
function by applying a probability density function based on a
Gaussian distribution. In some example apparatus, the age predictor
is to estimate the first ages by determining a predicted age
probability density function. In some examples, the age predictor
is to estimate the second ages by applying an aging factor to an
age bucket in the predicted age probability density function.
[0037] In some disclosed example apparatus, the model corrector
selects the audience members from a larger set of audience members
based on the second ages being within an age range, the age range
being based on the third age. In some disclosed examples, the first
impressions collector transmits audience measurement entity
identifiers to the devices in response to at least a portion of the
messages. In some examples, the age predictor estimates of the
third age in response to determining, based on the audience member
not being associated with an audience measurement entity
identifier, that the audience member has not been previously
identified.
[0038] In some disclosed example apparatus, the first impressions
collector sends re-direct messages in response to at least a
portion of the messages, the re-direct messages to cause at least a
portion of the devices to send third messages to the database
proprietor, the first demographic information being received based
on the third messages.
[0039] FIG. 1 illustrates an example system 100 to collect
impression data 102 of media presented at computing devices 104
(e.g., desktop computers, laptop computers, tablets, smartphones,
gaming consoles, Google Chromecast, Roku.RTM. Streaming Stick.RTM.,
etc.) and to produce aggregate age-corrected demographic impression
data 106 to be used by an audience measurement entity (AME) 108. In
the illustrated example, the impression data 102 is collected by a
database proprietor 110 (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, Google, Yahoo!,
MSN, Apple, Experian, etc.). In some examples, the impression data
102 and/or separate impression data is also collected by the AME
108. In some examples, the aggregate demographic impressions 106
are used by the AME 108 to generate ratings for media accessed at
computing devices (e.g., the computing device 104.)
[0040] In the illustrated example, after media is accessed on the
computing device 104, the computing device 104 reports the
impression data 102 to the database proprietor 110. In some
examples, the computing device 104 reports impression data 102 for
accessed media based on instructions embedded in the media that
instruct the computing device 104 (e.g., instruct a web browser or
an app in the computing device 104) to send impression data 102 to
the database proprietor 110. The example impression data 102
includes an impression request 112 and a device/user identifier
114. The example impression request 112 includes a media identifier
(e.g., an identifier that can be used to identify content, an
advertisement, and/or any other media) corresponding to the media
accessed on the computing device 104. In some examples, the AME 108
modifies and/or encodes the media identifiers so the database
proprietor 110 cannot identify the media. In some examples, the
impression request 112 also includes a site identifier (e.g., a
URL) of a website (e.g., YouTube.com, ABC.com, Hulu.com, etc.) that
served the media to the computing device 104 and/or a host website
ID (e.g., sbnation.com) of the website that displays or presents
the media. In some examples, the impression request 112 includes an
impression identifier that may be used to uniquely identify the
impression request. In some examples, the device/user identifier
114 is a device identifier (e.g., an international mobile equipment
identity (IMEI), a mobile equipment identifier (MEID), a media
access control (MAC) address, etc.), a web browser unique
identifier (e.g., a cookie), a user identifier (e.g., a user name,
a login ID, etc.), an Adobe Flash.RTM. client identifier,
identification information stored in an HTML5 datastore, a vehicle
identification number (VIN) and/or any other identifier that the
database proprietor 110 stores in association with demographic
information about subscribers corresponding to the computing
devices 104. In some examples, the database proprietor 110 uses the
device/user identifier 114 to determine if the user of the
computing device 104 is a subscriber of the database proprietor
110.
[0041] In the illustrated example of FIG. 1, the database
proprietor 110 includes an example impression records database 116,
an example age-corrected demographic impression records database
118, an example impression handler 120, an example subscriber
accounts database 122, an example age corrector 124, and an example
demographic impression aggregator 126. The example impression
records database 116 stores the impression data 102 received from
the computing device 104. The example age-corrected demographic
impression records database 118 stores age-corrected impression
data generated by the example impression handler 120. In some
examples, the impression records database 116 and the example
age-corrected impression records database 118 may be the same
database.
[0042] In the illustrated example, the impression handler 120
generates demographic impression data by matching demographic
information from the subscriber accounts database 122 to the
impression data 102. In the illustrated example, the impression
handler 120 uses the user/device identifier 114 to determine if the
impression data 102 is associated with a subscriber corresponding
to an account in the subscriber accounts database 122. In some
examples, a value (e.g., a user/device identifier) matching the
user/device identifier 114 is stored in a corresponding subscriber
account record in the subscriber accounts database 122. In some
examples, the impression handler 120 may store and/or otherwise
access an intermediate table that associates the user/device
identifiers 114 with identifiers used to index subscribers (e.g., a
subscriber identifier 130) in the subscriber accounts database 122.
For example, the impression handler 120 may look up on an
intermediate table a cookie value of a cookie used as a user/device
identifier 114 to determine the subscriber identifier 130. In some
examples, if the database proprietor 110 cannot find a match for
the user/device identifier 114 and a user/device identifier in the
subscriber accounts database 122, the corresponding impression data
102 is not processed further. The example impression handler 120
retrieves demographic information corresponding to the subscriber
identifier 130 from the subscriber accounts database 122.
[0043] In the illustrated example, the example impression handler
120 sends an age-correction request 128 to the example age
corrector 124. In the illustrated example, the age-correction
request 128 includes a user identifier 130 (UID) (e.g., the
user/device identifier 114, the subscriber identifier, etc.) and an
impression date 132. The example impression date 132 is a date
corresponding to when the impression data 102 was generated by the
computing device 104 (e.g. included with the impression data 102
when the impression data is sent to the database proprietor 110).
Based on the UID 130 and the impression date 132, the example age
corrector 124 generates an age-corrected probability density
function (PDF) 134. In some examples, the age-corrected PDF 134
define probabilities that the real age of the subscriber
corresponding to the subscriber identifier 130 is within certain
demographic buckets (e.g., demographic groups defined by age
ranges). For example, the age-corrected PDF 134 may indicate that
the probability of the subscriber being in the 18-21 age range is
11.6%, the probability of the subscriber being in the 22-27 age
range is 44.5%, the probability of the subscriber being in the
28-33 age range is 36.7%, and the probability of the subscriber
being in the 34-40 age range is 7.2%.
[0044] In some examples, the age corrector 124 generates and/or
uses an age prediction model to estimate ages (or age ranges) of
subscribers. The example age prediction model is trained and/or
calibrated from time-to-time, but is not constantly calibrated for
accuracy. As a result, over time the age prediction model used by
the age corrector 124 becomes outdated and the accuracy of the age
prediction model is reduced. The example age corrector 124 performs
corrections for time-based deterioration of age prediction model(s)
used to predict ages of subscribers.
[0045] In the illustrated example, the impression handler 120
generates a demographic impression by attributing the demographic
data (e.g., without the subscriber-reported age) retrieved from the
subscriber accounts database 122 and the age-corrected PDF 134 to
the impression data 102. The example impression handler 120 stores
the demographic impressions in the example age-corrected
demographic impression records database 118.
[0046] The example demographic impression aggregator 126 creates
aggregate demographic impressions 106 using the demographic
impressions stored in the example age-corrected demographic
impression database 118. By providing aggregate demographic
impressions 106, the database proprietor 110 protects the privacies
of its subscribers by not revealing their identities or
subscriber-level media access activities, to the AME 108. In some
examples, the demographic impressions are aggregated by media. For
example, the demographic impression aggregator 126 may create
aggregate demographic impressions 106 for season two, episode one
of the television program titled "Boardwalk Empire." In some
examples, the demographic impressions are aggregated for a certain
time period. For example, the demographic impression aggregator 126
may create aggregate demographic impressions 106 for an
advertisement for a food product, such as a "Kellogg's.RTM.
Eggo.RTM. Cinnamon Toast Waffles" commercial, for the past seven
days. The example demographic impression aggregator 126 creates
aggregate demographic impressions 106 by demographic group (e.g.,
gender, income level, race/ethnicity, marital status, etc.). For
example, the demographic impression aggregator 126 may create
aggregate demographic impressions 106 for unmarried males accessing
the television program titled "Being Human."
[0047] In some examples, the demographic impressions are aggregated
as granularly (e.g., aggregated by many demographic categories
(e.g., ethnicity, religion, education level, gender, income, etc.))
or as coarsely (e.g., aggregated by only a few demographic
categories) as agreed between the database proprietor 110 and the
AME 108. For example, the database proprietor 110 and the AME 108
may agree that the database proprietor 110 will provide aggregate
demographic impressions 106 for the television program titled
"Scandal" categorized by gender, ethnicity, and education
level.
[0048] To generate the aggregate demographic impressions 106, the
demographic impression aggregator 126 aggregates the age-corrected
PDF 134 stored in the age-corrected demographic impression records
database 118. In some examples, to aggregate the age-corrected
PDFs, the demographic impression aggregator 126 sums the age
probability value for a corresponding demographic bucket of the
demographic impressions being aggregated and divides the summed
probability values by the number of demographic impressions being
aggregated. In some such examples, the demographic impression
aggregator 126 repeats this process for each demographic bucket. In
some examples, the demographic impression aggregator 126 generates
an aggregate age-corrected PDF in accordance with Equation 1
below.
AAP j = i = 0 n ADF j ( i ) n Equation 1 ##EQU00001##
In Equation 1 above, AAP.sub.j is the aggregated age probability
for demographic bucket j, i is a demographic impression, n is the
number of demographic impressions to be included in the aggregate
demographic impressions 106, and ADF.sub.j is the age-corrected PDF
probability value for demographic bucket j. In some examples, the
demographic impression aggregator 126 compiles the aggregated age
probabilities (AAP.sub.j) for the demographic buckets into the
aggregate age-corrected PDF that is included in the aggregate
demographic impression 106.
[0049] Consider the following example for males that accessed
season 1, episode 2 of a television show titled "Being Human" in
the last seven days. The example corrected-age distribution
functions 134 for demographic impressions A through D are given in
table 1 below.
TABLE-US-00001 TABLE 1 EXAMPLE AGE-CORRECTED PROBABILITY DENSITY
FUNCTIONS CORRESPONDING TO EXAMPLE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPRESSIONS A
THROUGH D Age 12-14 Age 15-17 Age 18-20 Age 21-24 Age 25-29 Age
30-34 A 0.200 0.350 0.300 0.100 0.025 0.025 B 0.000 0.700 0.150
0.100 0.000 0.050 C 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 D 0.100
0.350 0.400 0.075 0.075 0.000
In the illustrated example, the aggregate age probability for the
age range 12-14 demographic bucket is 7.5% ((0.2+0.0+0.0+0.1)/4),
the aggregate age probability for the age range 15-17 demographic
age bucket is 35% ((0.35+0.7+0.0+0.35)/4), the aggregate age
probability for the age range 18-20 demographic age bucket is 46.3%
((0.3+0.15+1.0+0.4)/4), the aggregate age probability for the age
range 21-24 demographic age bucket is 6.9% (0.1+0.1+0.0+0.075)/4),
the aggregate age probability for the age range 25-29 demographic
age bucket is 2.5% (0.025+0.0+0.0+0.075)/4), and the aggregate age
probability for the age range 30-34 demographic age bucket is 1.8%
((0.025+0.05+0.0+0.0)/4). Based on the example corrected-age
distribution functions in Table 2 above, the aggregate
corrected-age PDF attributed to the aggregate demographic
impressions 106 corresponding to males that accessed season 1,
episode 2 of the television program titled "Being Human" in the
last seven days is given in Table 2 below.
TABLE-US-00002 TABLE 2 EXAMPLE AGGREGATE AGE-CORRECTED PROBABILITY
DENSITY FUNCTION Age 12-14 Age 15-17 Age 18-20 Age 21-24 Age 25-29
Age 30-34 0.075 0.350 0.463 0.069 0.025 0.018
[0050] In the illustrated example, from time to time, the age
corrector 124 retrieves subscriber data 136 from the subscriber
accounts database 122 in order to predict age PDFs for the
subscribers of the database proprietor 110. In some examples, the
age corrector 124 retrieves subscriber data 136 after a new
prediction model is generated. The example subscriber data 136
includes the example UID 130 and example subscriber activity
metrics 138. The example subscriber activity metrics 138 are
collected and/or calculated based on subscriber behavior and/or
demographic factors. The example subscriber activity metrics 138
include self-reported demographic data and behavioral data of a
subscriber of the database proprietor 110. The example subscriber
activity metrics 138 include login frequency, mobile login
activity, privacy settings, post rate, number of contacts, days
since registration, whether a cell phone number has been included
in registration information, etc. Using the example UID 130 and
example subscriber activity metrics 138, the example age corrector
124 predicts and stores age PDFs for the subscribers corresponding
to the retrieved subscriber data 136.
[0051] FIG. 2 illustrates an example system 200 to collect
impression data 102 of media accessed at computing devices and to
correct the impression data 102 for age misattribution at the AME
108. In the illustrated example, the computing device 104 sends
impression data 102 to the AME 108. In some examples, the computing
device 104 sends impression data 102 to the database proprietor
110. The example database proprietor 110 sends anonymized
subscriber demographic data 202 to the AME 108. The example
anonymized subscriber demographic data 202 is demographic data from
a subscriber database (e.g., the subscriber database 122 of FIG. 1)
that has one or more items of personally identifiable information
(e.g., name, home address, email address, date of birth,
birthplace, telephone number, national identification number, etc.)
removed. In some examples, the anonymized subscriber demographic
data 202 also includes an identifier that may be used to match the
anonymized subscriber demographic data 202 with impression data
102. In some examples, the database proprietor 110 provides the
anonymized subscriber demographic data 202 in response to receiving
the impression data 102. In some examples, the database proprietor
110 provides the anonymized subscriber demographic data 202 in
response to receiving a request from the AME 108 for the anonymized
subscriber demographic data 202. In some examples, the database
proprietor 110 provides, from time to time (e.g., at periodic or
aperiodic intervals such as every 24 hours or when a particular
amount of data has been collected), the anonymized subscriber
demographic data 202 in bulk.
[0052] In some examples, the database proprietor 110 provides
anonymized identifiers with the anonymized subscriber demographic
data 202. In some examples, to facilitate correlating the
impression data 102 with the anonymized subscriber demographic data
202, the database proprietor 110 sends subscriber correlation data
205 to the AME 108. In some examples, the subscriber correlation
data 205 includes the impression identifier included in the
impression request 112 and the corresponding anonymized identifier.
In some examples, the subscriber correlation data 205 is sent to
the AME 108 in response to the impression data 102 being received
by the database proprietor 110. In some examples, the database
proprietor 110 sends subscriber correlation data 205 to the AME 108
from time to time (e.g., at periodic or aperiodic intervals such as
every 24 hours or when a particular amount of impression data 102
has been collected). In such a manner, the anonymized identifier
allows the AME 108 to correlate anonymized subscriber demographic
data 202 with impression data 102 without allowing the AME 108 to
identify the particular subscriber that caused the impression data
102 to be generated.
[0053] In the illustrated example, the AME 108 includes an example
anonymized subscriber database 203, an example impressions
collector 204, an example age corrector 124, an example age
adjuster 206, and an example age-adjusted impressions database 208.
The example anonymized subscriber database 203 stores the example
anonymized subscriber demographic data 202 received from the
example database proprietor 110. In the example illustrated in FIG.
2, the impressions collector 204 receives the impression data 102
from the computing device 104. The example impressions collector
204 generates demographic impressions by attributing anonymized
subscriber data 202 with impression data 102. In some examples, the
impressions collector 204 compares an impression identifier (e.g.,
the impression identifier 1140 of FIG. 11 below) of the impression
request 112 included in the impression data 102 to subscriber
correlation data 205 received from the database proprietor 110. In
such examples, if a corresponding impression identifier is
identified, the impression data 102 is attributed to the anonymized
subscriber data 202 corresponding to the anonymized identifier
included with the subscriber correlation data 205.
[0054] In the illustrated example, the AME 108 receives subscriber
data 136 for one or more subscribers of the database proprietor
110. The example subscriber data 136 includes a user identifier 130
and subscriber activity metrics 138. In some examples, the user
identifier 130 is the anonymized identifier included in the
anonymized subscriber demographic data 202. In some examples, the
subscriber data 136 has personally identifiable information
removed. Using the user identifier 130 and the example subscriber
activity metrics 138, the example age corrector 124 predicts and
stores age PDFs for the subscribers corresponding to the anonymized
subscriber data 205. For example, the example age adjuster 206
sends an age-correction request 128 to the example age corrector
124. In the illustrated example, the age-correction request 128
includes a user identifier 130 (e.g., an anonymized subscriber
identifier, a user/device identifier 114, etc.) and an impression
date 132. Based on the user identifier 130 and the impression date
132, the example age corrector 124 generates an age-corrected PDF
134. The example age adjuster 206 attributes the age-corrected PDF
134 to the demographic impression data and stores the demographic
impression data in the age-adjusted impression database 208.
[0055] FIG. 3 illustrates an example implementation of the example
age corrector 124 of FIGS. 1 and 2 to correct age misattributions
in demographic impression data. The example age corrector 124
generates corrected age PDF(s) 134 of subscribers registered with a
database proprietor (e.g., the database proprietor 110 of FIGS. 1
and 2) based on subscriber activity metrics (e.g., frequency of
login, type of computing device used to login, number of
connections (e.g., friends, contacts, etc.)), privacy settings,
etc.). In the illustrated example, when the age corrector 124
receives an age request 128, the age corrector 124 generates the
corrected age PDF(s) 134. In some examples, the age requests 128
include one or more user identifiers (UIDs) 130 (e.g., a
user/device identifier 114, an anonymized identifier, etc.) with
corresponding impression dates 302 on which one or more impressions
were logged (e.g., by the database proprietor 110) in association
with the UID(s) 130. The example corrected age PDF(s) 134 define
probabilities that the real age of a subscriber is within certain
demographic buckets as of a corresponding impression date 302.
[0056] In the illustrated example of FIG. 3, the age corrector 124
includes an example age predictor 304, an example age prediction
model 306, an example age cache 308, and an example age updater
310. The example age predictor 304 is structured to predict an age
PDF 305 for a subscriber of the database proprietor 110 based on
subscriber data 136 (FIG. 1) provided by the database proprietor
110. The age PDFs 305 define probabilities that the real age of the
subscriber is within certain demographic buckets on the date the
prediction is made (e.g., the date on which the age PDF 305 is
determined). The example age predictor 304 stores the predicted age
PDF(s) in the age cache 308 with the UID 130 and the date that the
age PDF was predicted. In some examples, to protect subscriber
privacy, the age predictor 304 does not store the subscriber
activity metrics 138 provided with the subscriber data 136 in the
age cache 308.
[0057] The example age prediction model 306 receives the subscriber
activity metrics 138 included with the subscriber data 136 and
generates age PDFs. The AME 108 generates the example age
prediction model 306 by analyzing subscriber activity metrics of
subscribers of the database proprietor 110 that are also enrolled
as panelists by the AME 108 (FIG. 1) and the demographic
information supplied by the panelist (e.g., when the panelist is
enrolled). For example, when a person is enrolled to be a panelist,
the person informs the AME 108 of which database proprietors 110
the person subscribes. In that scenario, the AME 108 obtains
consent from the enrolled panelists to use the subscriber activity
metrics 138 from the database proprietor 110 and the demographic
information collected by the AME 108 to contribute to an age
prediction model 306. While the self-reported demographic
information (e.g., age, etc.) reported to the database proprietor
110 is generally considered inaccurate, the demographic information
collected from the panelist (e.g., via a survey, etc.) by the AME
108 is considered highly accurate.
[0058] In some examples, the age prediction model 306 is
implemented using a classification tree. In some such examples,
using the subscriber activity metrics 138 and demographic data of
the panelists, a classification tree model is generated comprising
intermediate (e.g., decision) nodes and terminal (e.g., prediction)
nodes. The intermediate nodes contain test conditions based on the
subscriber activity metrics 138 and demographic data and result in
branching paths. For example, an intermediate node may branch in
one direction if a login frequency (e.g., the number of times a
week the subscriber logs into the database proprietor 110) is
greater than five times per week, and may branch in another
direction if the login frequency is less than or equal to five
times per week. The branching paths may either lead to another
intermediate node or a terminal node.
[0059] In such a scenario, the terminal nodes represent a
classification (e.g., a predicted age PDF 305) based on the
subscriber activity metrics 138 and demographic data of the
panelist. After the classification tree is constructed, the
panelists' data is application to the classification tree so that
the panelists are classified into the terminal nodes. In some such
examples, the age PDF 305 associated with that terminal node is
percentage of panelists in the terminal node that fall within a
corresponding demographic bucket based on the panelists' real ages.
For example, of the panelists in a terminal node, 0% of the
panelist may be within the 2-7 year-old demographic bucket, 0% of
the panelist may be within the 8-12 year-old demographic bucket, 7%
of the panelist may be within the 13-17 year-old demographic
bucket, 18% of the panelist may be within the 18-24 year-old
demographic bucket, 63% of the panelist may be within the 25-34
year-old demographic bucket, 11% of the panelist may be within the
35-44 year-old demographic bucket, 1% of the panelist may be within
the 45-54 year-old demographic bucket, 0% of the panelist may be
within the 55-64 year-old demographic bucket, and 0% of the
panelist may be within the 65+ year-old demographic bucket.
Examples that may be used to generate the age prediction model 306
are disclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/209,292,
entitled "Methods and Apparatus to Analyze and Adjust Demographic
Information," which is incorporated by reference in its
entirety.
[0060] In some examples, when the age prediction model 306 is
generated, a table or a database is created that correlates an age
PDF identifier (ID) with an age PDF 305. In some such examples, the
age prediction model 306 outputs the age PDF identifier (ID)
corresponding to the predicted age PDF 305. In some such examples,
the age predictor 304 looks up the age PDF ID in a table and/or
database to retrieve the predicted age PDF 305 to store in the age
cache 308. In some examples, the age predictor 304 stores the age
PDF ID in the age cache 212. Alternatively, in some examples, the
age prediction model 306 outputs the predicted age PDF 305, which
is stored by the age predictor 304 in the age cache 308.
[0061] The example age corrector 124 of FIG. 3 further includes a
model corrector 312. As the age prediction model 306 ages between
training or calibration sessions, the age prediction model 306 is
subject to deterioration (e.g., loss of accuracy). Due to the costs
and/or time involved in training an age prediction model, the model
may be reused to predict panelist or audience member ages for as
long as the projected accuracy of the model is within acceptable
limits. Because the age prediction model does not require
correction for deterioration at the time the model is trained, the
example model corrector 312 performs model correction for audience
members who are newly added to the demographic data at a later
time.
[0062] To correct for model deterioration, the example model
corrector 312 of FIG. 3 receives estimated first ages 314 of a
group of audience members and estimated second ages 316 of the
audience members (e.g., based on demographic information received
from a database proprietor). The example age predictor 304
estimates the first ages and the second ages using the age
prediction model 306. The first ages are associated with the time
at which the age prediction model was trained, and the second ages
correspond to a later time at which the age prediction model is
being used. At the later time, the age predictor 304 estimates a
third age of a new audience member or panelist who is not included
in the group of audience members. The third age corresponds to the
later time, rather than to the first time.
[0063] The example model corrector 312 estimates the age of the new
audience member at the first time and then determines the age of
the new audience member at the second time using the estimated age
at the first time. The model corrector 312 applies a window
function (e.g., a Gaussian distribution, also called a normal
distribution) to the second ages to determine a distribution of the
second ages using the third age (of the new audience member) as a
mean of the distribution. As a result, each of the example second
ages corresponds to a window value (e.g., a probability density
function value) based on the distribution. The example model
corrector 312 multiplies the window values of the second ages by
respective ones of the first ages to determine corrected first age
components. The example model corrector 312 sums the corrected
first age components to determine an estimated age of the audience
member at the first time.
[0064] The example model corrector 312 determines the corrected age
of the audience member at the later time based on the estimated age
of the audience member at the first time and a time difference
between the first and later times. For example, if the later time
is 2 years after the first time, the example model corrector 312
adds 2 years to the estimated age of the audience member at the
first time. The example model corrector 312 provides a corrected
age 318 to the example age predictor 304 to enhance the accuracy of
demographics attributed to impressions and/or unique audience
counts for media.
[0065] FIG. 4 shows an example terminal node table 400 showing age
PDFs 305a-305c. In the illustrated example, the age PDFs 305a-305c
on the terminal node table 400 are identified by age PDF IDs 404
(APDFID 404). The example age PDFs 305a-305c are divided into
demographic bucket probabilities 406a-406m. The demographic bucket
probabilities 406a-406m define the probability that the real age of
the subscriber falls within the corresponding demographic bucket.
When the example age predictor 304 (FIG. 3) uses the example age
prediction model 306 (FIG. 3) based on the user subscriber activity
metrics 138, the age prediction model 306 outputs one of the age
PDFs 305a-305c and/or age PDF IDs 404. For example, if the age
prediction model 306 assigns a first subscriber to an age PDF 305b
identified by the age PDF ID 404 "A2," the probability that the
real age of the first subscribe is 12-14 is 100%. As another
example, if the age prediction model 306 assigns a second
subscriber to an age PDF 305c identified by the age PDF ID 404
"A3," the probability of the real age of the second subscriber
being 2-11 is 6.2%, the probability of the real age of the second
subscriber being 12-14 is 32.3%, the probability of the real age of
the second subscriber being 15-17 is 60%, and the probability of
the real age of the second subscriber being 35-39 is 1.5%.
[0066] FIG. 5 illustrates an example data structure 500 to store
age PDF(s) (e.g., the age PDF(s) 305 of FIGS. 3 and 4) predicted by
age prediction model 306 (FIG. 3). In the illustrated example, the
data structure 500 includes an example user identifier 130, an
example age PDF identifier (age PDF ID) 404, and an example
prediction date 502. The example user identifier 130 is used by the
age updater 310 (FIG. 3) to retrieve the age PDF ID 404 and the
prediction data 502 when an age request 128 (FIGS. 1 and 2) is
received. The example user identifier 130 may be the user/device
identifier 114 (FIG. 1), the anonymized identifier, and/or any
other identifying value that remains a consistent identifier for a
subscriber between the prediction date 502 and the impression date
302 (FIG. 3). The age PDF ID 404 identifies an age PDF that was
predicted for the subscriber based on subscriber activity metrics
138 (FIG. 1) on the prediction date 502.
[0067] In the illustrated example of FIG. 3, the example age
updater 310 retrieves the age PDF ID 404 (FIG. 4) and the
prediction date 502 (FIG. 5) from the age cache 308 upon receiving
an age request 128. In the illustrated example, the age updater 310
probabilistically ages the age PDF retrieved from the age cache 308
to produce an age-corrected PDF 134. To probabilistically age the
age PDF, the age updater 310 calculate aging factor(s) (AF) in
accordance with Equation 2 below.
AF j = NumDays ( D I - D P ) NumDays ( D j ) Equation 2
##EQU00002##
In Equation 2 above, AF.sub.j is an aging factor for the
demographic bucket j (e.g., one of the demographic buckets
406a-406m of FIG. 4), D.sub.I is the impression date 302, D.sub.P
is the prediction date 502, NumDays(D.sub.I-D.sub.P) is the number
of days between the impression date 302 and the prediction date
502, and NumDays(D.sub.j) is the number of days that are spanned by
the demographic bucket j. For example, a three-year spanning
demographic bucket (e.g., an age 18-20 demographic age bucket,
etc.) has 1096 days. For example, if the impression date 302 is
Dec. 5, 2014, the prediction date 502 is Apr. 17, 2014, and the
span of the demographic bucket is three years, the aging factor
would be 0.21 (232/1096) because the number of days between Apr.
17, 2014 and Dec. 5, 2014 is 232. In some examples, where the age
ranges of the demographic buckets are the same, the age updater 310
only calculates a single aging factor. For example, if the
demographic buckets each span five years (e.g., demographic bucket
A spans ages 7-11, demographic bucket B spans ages 12-16,
demographic bucket C spans ages 17-21, etc.), the age factors would
be identical (e.g., NumDays(D.sub.j) would be 1826)
[0068] To probabilistically age the age PDF corresponding to the
age PDF ID 404 retrieved from the age cache 308, the age updater
310 applies the aging factor(s) to the age PDF in accordance with
Equation 3 below.
ACPDF=APDF.times.M Equation 3
In Equation 3 above, ACPDF is the age-corrected PDF 134, APDF is a
1.times.N matric formed by the age PDF retrieved from the age cache
308, where N is the number of demographic buckets in the age PDF,
and M is an aging factor matrix calculated in accordance with
Equation 4 below.
M = ( 1 - AF 1 AF 1 0 0 0 0 1 - AF 2 AF 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 - AF j - 1 AF
j - 1 0 0 0 0 1 ) Equation 4 ##EQU00003##
In Equation 4 above, AF.sub.j is the aging factor for demographic
bucket j.
[0069] Consider the following example. An age request 128 is
received by the age updater 310 with a UID 130 of "8PR6PYRGQC" and
an impression date 302 of Oct. 10, 2014. The age updater 310
retrieves a record from the age cache 308 that has an age PDF ID
404 of "A7" and a prediction date 502 of Jun. 9, 2014. The age PDF
ID 404 "A7" corresponds to an age PDF as shown in Table 3
below.
TABLE-US-00003 TABLE 3 EXAMPLE AGE PDF Demographic Bucket 13-17
18-21 22-27 28-34 34-40 Probability 0% 15% 53% 32% 0%
Using Equation 2 above, that age updater 310 calculates the aging
factors as shown below in Table 4.
TABLE-US-00004 TABLE 4 EXAMPLE AGING FACTORS BASED ON THE EXAMPLE
AGE PDF OF TABLE 3 Demographic Bucket 1 2 3 4 5 Aging Factor 0.068
0.085 0.057 0.049 0.049
A matrix, M, applying Equation 4 above to the aging factors in
Table 4 above is shown in Equation 5 below.
M = ( 0.932 0.068 0 0 0 0 0.915 0.085 0 0 0 0 0.943 0.057 0 0 0 0
0.951 0.049 0 0 0 0 1 ) . Equation 5 ##EQU00004##
Applying Equation 3 to Equation 5 above and the example age PDF of
Table 3 above, the age-corrected PDF 134 determined by the example
age updater 310 is shown in Table 5 below.
TABLE-US-00005 TABLE 5 EXAMPLE AGE-CORRECTED PDF Demographic Bucket
13-17 18-21 22-27 28-34 34-40 Probability 0% 14% 51% 33% 2%
[0070] While an example manner of implementing the example age
corrector 124 of FIGS. 1 and/or 2 is illustrated in FIG. 3, one or
more of the elements, processes and/or devices illustrated in FIG.
3 may be combined, divided, re-arranged, omitted, eliminated and/or
implemented in any other way. Further, the example age predictor
304, the age prediction model 306, the age cache 308, the example
age updater 310, the example model corrector 312 and/or, more
generally, the example age corrector 124 of FIG. 3 may be
implemented by hardware, software, firmware and/or any combination
of hardware, software and/or firmware. Thus, for example, any of
the example age predictor 304, the age prediction model 306, the
age cache 308, the example age updater 310, the example model
corrector 312 and/or, more generally, the example age corrector 124
could be implemented by one or more analog or digital circuit(s),
logic circuits, programmable processor(s), application specific
integrated circuit(s) (ASIC(s)), programmable logic device(s)
(PLD(s)) and/or field programmable logic device(s) (FPLD(s)). When
reading any of the apparatus or system claims of this patent to
cover a purely software and/or firmware implementation, at least
one of the example age predictor 304, the age prediction model 306,
the age cache 308, the example age updater 310, the example model
corrector 312, and/or the example age corrector 124 is/are hereby
expressly defined to include a tangible computer readable storage
device or storage disk such as a memory, a digital versatile disk
(DVD), a compact disk (CD), a Blu-ray disk, etc. storing the
software and/or firmware. Further still, the example age corrector
124 of FIGS. 1 and 2 may include one or more elements, processes
and/or devices in addition to, or instead of, those illustrated in
FIG. 3, and/or may include more than one of any or all of the
illustrated elements, processes and devices.
[0071] FIG.6 illustrates an example communication flow diagram of
an example manner in which the AME 108 and the database proprietor
110 can collect impressions and demographic information based on a
client device 104 reporting impressions to the AME 108 and the
database proprietor 110. Examples disclosed herein to predict age
may be used in connection with demographic impressions collected
using example techniques described below in connection with FIG. 6.
FIG. 6 also shows example age correctors 124. In some examples, the
age corrector 124 is part of the database proprietor 110 as shown
in FIG. 1. In some examples, the age correct 124 is part of AME 108
as shown in FIG. 2. The example chain of events shown in FIG. 6
occurs when the client device 104 accesses media for which the
client device 104 reports an impression to the AME 108 and the
database proprietor 110. In some examples, the client device 104
reports impressions for accessed media based on instructions (e.g.,
beacon instructions) embedded in the media that instruct the client
device 104 (e.g., instruct a web browser or an app in the client
device 104) to send beacon/impression requests 608 to the AME 108
and/or the database proprietor 110. In such examples, the media
having the beacon instructions is referred to as tagged media. In
other examples, the client device 104 reports impressions for
accessed media based on instructions embedded in apps or web
browsers that execute on the client device 104 to send
beacon/impression requests 608 to the AME 108, and/or the database
proprietor 110 for corresponding media accessed via those apps or
web browsers. In any case, the beacon/impression requests 608
include device/user identifiers 114 as described further below to
allow the corresponding AME 108 and/or database proprietor 110 to
associate demographic information with resulting logged
impressions.
[0072] In the illustrated example, the client device 104 accesses
media 606 that is tagged with beacon instructions 608. The beacon
instructions 608 cause the client device 104 to send a
beacon/impression request 612 to an AME impressions collector 618
when the client device 104 accesses the media 606. For example, a
web browser and/or app of the client device 104 executes the beacon
instructions 608 in the media 606 which instruct the browser and/or
app to generate and send the beacon/impression request 612. In the
illustrated example, the client device 104 sends the
beacon/impression request 612 to the AME impression collector 618
using an HTTP (hypertext transfer protocol) request addressed to
the URL (uniform resource locator) of the AME impressions collector
618 at, for example, a first internet domain of the AME 108. The
beacon/impression request 612 of the illustrated example includes a
media identifier 613 (e.g., an identifier that can be used to
identify content, an advertisement, and/or any other media)
corresponding to the media 606. In some examples, the
beacon/impression request 612 also includes a site identifier
(e.g., a URL) of the website that served the media 606 to the
client device 104 and/or a host website ID (e.g., www.acme.com) of
the website that displays or presents the media 606. In the
illustrated example, the beacon/impression request 612 includes a
device/user identifier 114. In the illustrated example, the
device/user identifier 114 that the client device 104 provides in
the beacon impression request 612 is an AME ID (e.g., a cookie or
other identifier). The AME ID corresponds to an identifier that the
AME 108 uses to identify a panelist corresponding to the client
device 104. In other examples, the client device 104 may not send
the device/user identifier 114 until the client device 104 receives
a request for the same from a server of the AME 108 (e.g., in
response to, for example, the AME impressions collector 618
receiving the beacon/impression request 612).
[0073] In some examples, the device/user identifier 114 may be a
device identifier (e.g., an international mobile equipment identity
(IMEI), a mobile equipment identifier (MEID), a media access
control (MAC) address, etc.), a web browser unique identifier
(e.g., a cookie), a user identifier (e.g., a user name, a login ID,
etc.), an Adobe Flash.RTM. client identifier, identification
information stored in an HTML5 datastore, a vehicle identification
number (VIN) and/or any other identifier that the AME 108 stores in
association with demographic information about users of the client
devices 104. When the AME 108 receives the device/user identifier
114, the AME 108 can obtain demographic information corresponding
to a user of the client device 104 based on the device/user
identifier 114 that the AME 108 receives from the client device
104. In some examples, the device/user identifier 114 may be
encrypted (e.g., hashed) at the client device 104 so that only an
intended final recipient of the device/user identifier 114 can
decrypt the hashed identifier 114. For example, if the device/user
identifier 114 is a cookie that is set in the client device 104 by
the AME 108, the device/user identifier 114 can be hashed so that
only the AME 108 can decrypt the device/user identifier 114. If the
device/user identifier 114 is an IMEI number, the client device 104
can hash the device/user identifier 114 so that only a wireless
carrier (e.g., the database proprietor 110) can decrypt the hashed
identifier 114 to recover the IMEI for use in accessing demographic
information corresponding to the user of the client device 104. By
hashing the device/user identifier 114, an intermediate party
(e.g., an intermediate server or entity on the Internet) receiving
the beacon request cannot directly identify a user of the client
device 104.
[0074] In response to receiving the beacon/impression request 612,
the AME impressions collector 618 logs an impression for the media
606 by storing the media identifier 613 contained in the
beacon/impression request 612. In the illustrated example of FIG.
6, the AME impressions collector 618 also uses the device/user
identifier 114 in the beacon/impression request 612 to identify AME
panelist demographic information corresponding to a panelist of the
client device 104. That is, the device/user identifier 114 matches
a user ID of a panelist member (e.g., a panelist corresponding to a
panelist profile maintained and/or stored by the AME 108). In this
manner, the AME impressions collector 618 can associate the logged
impression with demographic information of a panelist corresponding
to the client device 104.
[0075] In some examples, the beacon/impression request 612 may not
include the device/user identifier 114 if, for example, the user of
the client device 104 is not an AME panelist. In such examples, the
AME impressions collector 618 logs impressions regardless of
whether the client device 104 provides the device/user identifier
114 in the beacon/impression request 612 (or in response to a
request for the identifier 114). When the client device 104 does
not provide the device/user identifier 114, the AME impressions
collector 618 will still benefit from logging an impression for the
media 606 even though it will not have corresponding demographics.
For example, the AME 108 may still use the logged impression to
generate a total impressions count and/or a frequency of
impressions (e.g., an impressions frequency) for the media 606.
Additionally or alternatively, the AME 108 may obtain demographics
information from the database proprietor 110 for the logged
impression if the client device 104 corresponds to a subscriber of
the database proprietor 110.
[0076] In the illustrated example of FIG. 6 to compare or
supplement panelist demographics (e.g., for accuracy or
completeness) of the AME 108 with demographics from one or more
database proprietors (e.g., the database proprietor 110), the AME
impressions collector 618 returns a beacon response message 622
(e.g., a first beacon response) to the client device 104 including
an HTTP "302 Found" re-direct message and a URL of a participating
database proprietor 110 at, for example, a second internet domain.
In the illustrated example, the HTTP "302 Found" re-direct message
in the beacon response 622 instructs the client device 104 to send
a second beacon request 626 to the database proprietor 110. In
other examples, instead of using an HTTP "302 Found" re-direct
message, redirects may be implemented using, for example, an iframe
source instruction (e.g., <iframe src=" ">) or any other
instruction that can instruct a client device to send a subsequent
beacon request (e.g., the second beacon request 626) to a
participating database proprietor 110. In the illustrated example,
the AME impressions collector 618 determines the database
proprietor 110 specified in the beacon response 622 using a rule
and/or any other suitable type of selection criteria or process. In
some examples, the AME impressions collector 618 determines a
particular database proprietor to which to redirect a beacon
request based on, for example, empirical data indicative of which
database proprietor is most likely to have demographic data for a
user corresponding to the device/user identifier 114. In some
examples, the beacon instructions 608 include a predefined URL of
one or more database proprietors to which the client device 104
should send follow up beacon requests 626. In other examples, the
same database proprietor is always identified in the first redirect
message (e.g., the beacon response 622).
[0077] In some examples, the AME 108 assigns an identifier to the
device 104 in response to receiving a first message from the device
104. For example, the AME 108 may send an AME cookie on the device
104 with the beacon response 622. When the device 104 sends
subsequent beacon requests 612, the device 104 may include the AME
cookie to enable to the AME 108 to identify that the device 104 has
already been observed. In some cases, the AME cookie expires after
a valid time period of the cookie, after which a new AME cookie is
set by the AME 108 in response to a beacon request 612 from the
same device 104.
[0078] In the illustrated example of FIG. 6, the beacon/impression
request 626 may include a device/user identifier 114 that is a
database proprietor ID because it is used by the database
proprietor 110 to identify a subscriber of the client device 104
when logging an impression. In some instances (e.g., in which the
database proprietor 110 has not yet set a database proprietor ID in
the client device 104), the beacon/impression request 626 does not
include the device/user identifier 114. In some examples, the
database proprietor ID is not sent until the database proprietor
110 requests the same (e.g., in response to the beacon/impression
request 626). When the database proprietor 110 receives the
device/user identifier 114, the database proprietor 110 can obtain
demographic information corresponding to a user of the client
device 104 based on the device/user identifier 114 that the
database proprietor 110 receives from the client device 104. In
some examples, the device/user identifier 114 may be encrypted
(e.g., hashed) at the client device 104 so that only an intended
final recipient of the device/user identifier 114 can decrypt the
hashed identifier 114. For example, if the device/user identifier
114 is a cookie that is set in the client device 104 by the
database proprietor 110, the device/user identifier 114 can be
hashed so that only the database proprietor 110 can decrypt the
device/user identifier 114. If the device/user identifier 114 is an
IMEI number, the client device 104 can hash the device/user
identifier 114 so that only a wireless carrier (e.g., the database
proprietor 110) can decrypt the hashed identifier 114 to recover
the IMEI for use in accessing demographic information corresponding
to the user of the client device 104. By hashing the device/user
identifier 114, an intermediate party (e.g., an intermediate server
or entity on the Internet) receiving the beacon request cannot
directly identify a user of the client device 104. For example, if
the intended final recipient of the device/user identifier 114 is
the database proprietor 110, the AME 108 cannot recover identifier
information when the device/user identifier 114 is hashed by the
client device 104 for decrypting only by the intended database
proprietor 110.
[0079] In some examples that use cookies as the device/user
identifier 114, when a user deletes a database proprietor cookie
from the client device 104, the database proprietor 110 sets the
same cookie value in the client device 104 the next time the user
logs into a service of the database proprietor 110. In such
examples, the cookies used by the database proprietor 110 are
registration-based cookies, which facilitate setting the same
cookie value after a deletion of the cookie value has occurred on
the client device 104. In this manner, the database proprietor 110
can collect impressions for the client device 104 based on the same
cookie value over time to generate unique audience (UA) sizes while
eliminating or substantially reducing the likelihood that a single
unique person will be counted as two or more separate unique
audience members.
[0080] Although only a single database proprietor 110 is shown in
FIG. 6, the impression reporting/collection process of FIG. 6 may
be implemented using multiple database proprietors 110. In some
such examples, the beacon instructions 608 cause the client device
104 to send beacon/impression requests 626 to numerous database
proprietors 110. For example, the beacon instructions 608 may cause
the client device 104 to send the beacon/impression requests 626 to
the numerous database proprietors 110 in parallel or in daisy chain
fashion. In some such examples, the beacon instructions 608 cause
the client device 104 to stop sending beacon/impression requests
626 to database proprietors once a database proprietor has
recognized the client device 104. In other examples, the beacon
instructions 608 cause the client device 104 to send
beacon/impression requests 626 to database proprietors 110 so that
multiple database proprietors 110 can recognize the client device
104 and log a corresponding impression. In any case, multiple
database proprietors 110 are provided the opportunity to log
impressions and provide corresponding demographics information if
the user of the client device 104 is a subscriber of services of
those database proprietors.
[0081] In some examples, prior to sending the beacon response 622
to the client device 101, the AME impressions collector 618
replaces site IDs (e.g., URLs) of media provider(s) that served the
media 606 with modified site IDs (e.g., substitute site IDs) which
are discernable only by the AME 108 to identify the media
provider(s). In some examples, the AME impressions collector 618
may also replace a host website ID (e.g., www.acme.com) with a
modified host site ID (e.g., a substitute host site ID) which is
discernable only by the AME 108 as corresponding to the host
website via which the media 606 is presented. In some examples, the
AME impressions collector 618 also replaces the media identifier
613 with a modified media identifier 613 corresponding to the media
606. In this way, the media provider of the media 606, the host
website that presents the media 606, and/or the media identifier
613 are obscured from the database proprietor 110, but the database
proprietor 110 can still log impressions based on the modified
values which can later be deciphered by the AME 108 after the AME
108 receives logged impressions from the database proprietor 110.
In some examples, the AME impressions collector 618 does not send
site IDs, host site IDS, the media identifier 613 or modified
versions thereof in the beacon response 622. In such examples, the
client device 104 provides the original, non-modified versions of
the media identifier 613, site IDs, host IDs, etc. to the database
proprietor 110.
[0082] In the illustrated example, the AME impression collector 618
maintains a modified ID mapping table 628 that maps original site
IDs with modified (or substitute) site IDs, original host site IDs
with modified host site IDs, and/or maps modified media identifiers
to the media identifiers such as the media identifier 613 to
obfuscate or hide such information from database proprietors such
as the database proprietor 110. Also in the illustrated example,
the AME impressions collector 618 encrypts all of the information
received in the beacon/impression request 612 and the modified
information to prevent any intercepting parties from decoding the
information. The AME impressions collector 618 of the illustrated
example sends the encrypted information in the beacon response 622
to the client device 104 so that the client device 104 can send the
encrypted information to the database proprietor 110 in the
beacon/impression request 626. In the illustrated example, the AME
impressions collector 618 uses an encryption that can be decrypted
by the database proprietor 110 site specified in the HTTP "302
Found" re-direct message.
[0083] From time to time, the impression data collected by the
database proprietor 110 is provided to a database proprietor
impressions collector 630 of the AME 108 as, for example, batch
(e.g., aggregate) data. As discussed above, some impressions logged
by the client device 104 to the database proprietor 110 are
misattributed by the database proprietor 110 to a wrong subscriber
and, thus, to incorrect demographic information. During a data
collecting and merging process to combine demographic and
impression data from the AME 108 and the database proprietor 110,
demographics of impressions logged by the AME 108 for the client
device 104 will not correspond to demographics of impressions
logged by the database proprietor 110 because the database
proprietor 110 has misattributed some impressions to the incorrect
demographic information. Examples disclosed herein may be used to
determine corrected age-based demographic groups of impression data
provided by the database proprietor 110.
[0084] The example AME 108 of FIG. 6 further includes a ratings
determiner 632. The example ratings determiner 632 generates
ratings information for the media by attributing impressions,
duration (e.g., viewing or listening minutes), and/or audience
counts to demographic groups (e.g., gender and/or age groups). The
ratings information generated by the ratings determiner 632 is
based on the ages predicted by the age corrector 124, where the
ages are corrected for deterioration of an age prediction
model.
[0085] Additional examples that may be used to implement the beacon
instruction processes of FIG. 6 are disclosed in U.S. Pat. No.
8,370,489, entitled "Methods and Apparatus to Determine Impressions
Using Distributed Demographic Information," which is hereby
incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. In addition,
other examples that may be used to implement such beacon
instructions are disclosed in U.S. Pat. No. 6,108,637, entitled
"Content Display Monitor," which is hereby incorporated herein by
reference in its entirety.
[0086] In some examples, the database proprietor 110, before
providing aggregated demographics to the AME 108, uses the age
corrector 124 to correct age-based demographic group
misattributions in the impression data. In some examples, the
aggregate impressions data includes an aggregate age PDF. In some
examples, when the AME 108 receives anonymized user-level
impression data and/or demographic data from the database
proprietor 110, the AME 108 uses the age corrector 124 to correct
age-based demographic group misattributions in the impression
data.
[0087] A flowchart representative of example machine readable
instructions for implementing the age corrector 124 of FIG. 3 is
shown in FIG. 7. A flowchart representative of example machine
readable instructions for implementing the age updater 310 of FIG.
3 is shown in FIG. 8. A flowchart representative of example machine
readable instructions for implementing the demographic impression
aggregator 126 of FIG. 1 is shown in FIG. 9. In this example, the
machine readable instructions comprise a program for execution by a
processor such as the processor 1012 shown in the example processor
platform 1000 discussed below in connection with FIG. 10. The
program may be embodied in software stored on a tangible computer
readable storage medium such as a CD-ROM, a floppy disk, a hard
drive, a digital versatile disk (DVD), a Blu-ray disk, or a memory
associated with the processor 1012, but the entire program and/or
parts thereof could alternatively be executed by a device other
than the processor 1012 and/or embodied in firmware or dedicated
hardware. Further, although the example programs are described with
reference to the flowcharts illustrated in FIGS. 7, 8, 9, and/or
13, many other methods of implementing the example age corrector
124, the example age updater 310, the example model corrector 312,
and/or the example demographic impression aggregator 126 may
alternatively be used. For example, the order of execution of the
blocks may be changed, and/or some of the blocks described may be
changed, eliminated, or combined.
[0088] As mentioned above, the example processes of FIGS. 7, 8, 9,
and/or 13 may be implemented using coded instructions (e.g.,
computer and/or machine readable instructions) stored on a tangible
computer readable storage medium such as a hard disk drive, a flash
memory, a read-only memory (ROM), a compact disk (CD), a digital
versatile disk (DVD), a cache, a random-access memory (RAM) and/or
any other storage device or storage disk in which information is
stored for any duration (e.g., for extended time periods,
permanently, for brief instances, for temporarily buffering, and/or
for caching of the information). As used herein, the term tangible
computer readable storage medium is expressly defined to include
any type of computer readable storage device and/or storage disk
and to exclude propagating signals and to exclude transmission
media. As used herein, "tangible computer readable storage medium"
and "tangible machine readable storage medium" are used
interchangeably. Additionally or alternatively, the example
processes of FIGS. 7, 8, 9, and/or 13 may be implemented using
coded instructions (e.g., computer and/or machine readable
instructions) stored on a non-transitory computer and/or machine
readable medium such as a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a
read-only memory, a compact disk, a digital versatile disk, a
cache, a random-access memory and/or any other storage device or
storage disk in which information is stored for any duration (e.g.,
for extended time periods, permanently, for brief instances, for
temporarily buffering, and/or for caching of the information). As
used herein, the term non-transitory computer readable medium is
expressly defined to include any type of computer readable storage
device and/or storage disk and to exclude propagating signals and
to exclude transmission media. As used herein, when the phrase "at
least" is used as the transition term in a preamble of a claim, it
is open-ended in the same manner as the term "comprising" is open
ended.
[0089] FIG. 7 is a flow diagram of example machine readable
instructions 700 that may be executed to implement the data
corrector 124 of FIGS. 1, 2, and/or 5 to correct ages associated
with demographic impressions associated with subscribers of a
database proprietor 110. Initially, at block 702, the age predictor
304 (FIG. 3) obtains subscriber data (e.g., the subscriber data 136
of FIGS. 1, 2, and 3). The example subscriber data 136 includes an
identifier (e.g., UID 130 of FIGS. 1, 2, and 3) and subscriber
activity metrics (e.g., the subscriber activity metrics 138 of
FIGS. 1, 2, and 3) for one or more subscribers of the database
proprietor 110. In some examples, the subscriber data 136 is
obtained in response to an age prediction model 306 (FIG. 3) being
generated so that the age predictor 304 can make age predictions
based on the subscriber data 136 soon after the age prediction
model 306 is generated. In some examples, the age predictor 304
retrieves subscriber data 136 for a subset of the subscribers of
the database proprietor 110. For example, the age predictor 304 may
retrieve subscriber data 136 of subscribers that have subscribed to
the database proprietor 110 since the age prediction model 306 was
last generated.
[0090] At block 704, the age predictor 304 obtains an age PDF
(e.g., the age PDF 305 of FIG. 3) from the prediction model 306
using the subscriber activity metrics 138. In some examples, using
the subscriber activity metrics 138 as inputs into the age
prediction model 306, the intermediate nodes of the age prediction
model 306 are traversed until the age prediction model 306 reaches
a terminal node. In such an example, the terminal node identifies
an age PDF (e.g., the age PDF 305 of FIGS. 3 and 4) and/or an age
PDF ID (e.g., the age PDF ID 404 of FIGS. 4 and 5). In some
examples, the age PDF 305 is identified by the age PDF ID. At block
706, the age predictor 304 stores the predicted age PDF 305 and/or
the age PDF ID 404, the UID 130 included in the subscriber data
138, and the date the prediction was made (e.g., the prediction
date 502 of FIG. 5) in the age cache 308. At block 708, the age
predictor 304 determines whether there is another subscriber (e.g.,
more subscriber data 136) for which to obtain a predicted age PDF.
If there is another subscriber, program control returns to block
704. Otherwise, if there is not another subscriber, program control
advances to block 710.
[0091] At block 710, the age updater 310 waits until an age request
(e.g., the age request 128 of FIGS. 1 and 2) has been received. For
example, the age updater 310 may receive the age request 128 from
the impression handler 120 (FIG. 1) or the age adjuster 206 (FIG.
2) to determine the age-corrected PDF 134 at a later time (e.g.,
days, weeks, months, etc.) after the age predictor 304 determines
an initial predicted age PDF 305 represented in the age cache 308.
If an age request 128 has been received, program control advances
to block 712. At block 712, the age updater 310 retrieves a
predicted age PDF 305 and/or an age PDF ID 404 and a prediction
date 502 from the age cache 308 based on a UID 130 included in the
age request 128. At block 714, the age updater 310 calculates an
age-corrected PDF 134 (FIGS. 1, 2 and 3). An example process for
implementing the operation of block 714 is described below in
connection with FIG. 8. At block 716, the age updater 310
determines if there is another age request 128. If there is another
age request 128, program control returns to block 710. Otherwise,
if there is not another age request 128, the example program 700
ends.
[0092] FIG. 8 is a flow diagram of example machine readable
instructions 714 that may be executed to implement the age updater
310 of FIG. 3 to calculate an age-corrected PDF 134 (FIGS. 1, 2 and
3) based on a predicted age PDF with a corresponding prediction
date 502 (FIG. 5) and an age request 128 (FIGS. 1, 2, and 3) that
includes an impression date 302. The example process of FIG. 8 may
be used to implement clock 714 of FIG. 7. Initially, at block 800,
the age updater 310 selects a demographic bucket from the predicted
age PDF for which to calculate an aging factor. For example, if the
predicted age PDF (e.g., the predicted age PDFs 305a-305c of FIG.
4) has a 2-11 year-old demographic bucket, a 12-14 year-old
demographic bucket, a 15-17 year-old demographic bucket, an 18-20
year-old demographic bucket, a 21-24 year-old demographic bucket, a
25-29 year-old demographic bucket, a 30-34 year-old demographic
bucket, a 35-39 year-old demographic bucket, a 40-44 year-old
demographic bucket, a 45-49 year-old demographic bucket, a 50-54
year-old demographic bucket, a 55-64 year-old demographic bucket,
and a 65+ year-old demographic bucket, the age updater 310 may
select the 2-11 year-old demographic bucket. At block 802, the age
updater 310 calculates an aging factor for the selected demographic
bucket. In some examples, the aging factors are calculated in
accordance with Equation 2 above. For example, if the impression
date 302 is Sep. 25, 2014, the prediction date 502 is Mar. 2, 2014,
and the span of the selected demographic bucket is five years
(e.g., an ages 2-6 year-old demographic bucket, an ages 7-11
year-old demographic bucket, etc.), the aging factor is 0.114
(208/1826) because 208 is the number of days between Sep. 25, 2014,
and Mar. 2, 2014, and 1826 is the number of days in five years.
[0093] At block 804, the age updater 310 determines whether another
aging factor is to be calculated for another demographic bucket.
For example, another aging factor is to be calculated if one or
more demographic buckets of a predicted age PDF have not had
corresponding aging factors calculated. If another aging factor is
to be calculated for another demographic bucket, program control
returns to block 800. Otherwise, if another aging factor is not to
be calculated for another demographic bucket, program control
advances to block 806. At block 806, the age updater 310 applies
the aging factor(s) calculated at block 802 to the predicted age
PDF. For example, the age updater 310 applies aging factors to the
predicted age PDF to generate the age-corrected PDF 134 (FIGS. 1,
2, and 3). In some examples, the aging factors are applied to the
predicted age PDF in accordance with Equation 3 and Equation 4
above. Example program 714 then ends.
[0094] FIG. 9 is a flow diagram of example machine readable
instructions 900 that may be executed to implement the demographic
impression aggregator 126 of FIG. 1 to calculate aggregated
age-corrected PDFs to include with aggregate demographic
impressions 106 (FIG. 1). The example process of FIG. 9 may be used
when aggregate demographic impressions 106 are to be sent to the
AME 108. Initially, at block 902, the demographic impression
aggregator 126 selects characteristics (e.g., gender, marital
status, media, device type, location, etc.) to include and/or
exclude to generate aggregate demographic impressions 106. For
example, the demographic impression aggregator 126 may select
"males, `Ricky and Morty`, New England" (e.g., a gender, a media
presentation, and a geographical region) as the characteristics to
use to aggregate the demographic impressions. In some examples, the
selected characteristics are based on agreements between the AME
108 (FIG. 1) and the database proprietor 110 (FIG. 1). In some
examples, the selected characteristics are based on requests for
aggregate demographic data 106 by the AME 108. At block 904, the
demographic impression aggregator 126 retrieves the demographic
impressions corresponding to the characteristics selected at block
902 from the impression database 116.
[0095] At block 906, the demographic impression aggregator 126
calculates an aggregate age-corrected PDF based on the
age-corrected PDFs corresponding to the demographic impressions
retrieved at block 904. In some examples, to calculate an aggregate
age-corrected PDF, the demographic impression aggregator 126
averages the probabilities for each demographic bucket. For
example, if the probabilities associated with the 18-20 year-old
demographic bucket for predicted age PDFs to be aggregated are 13%,
20%, 5% and 10%, the aggregate probability for the 18-20 year-old
demographic bucket would be 12% ((13%+20%+5%+10%)/4). In some
examples, the aggregate age-corrected PDF is calculated in
accordance with Equation 1 above. At block 908, the demographic
impression aggregator 126 generates the aggregate demographic
impression data 106. In some examples, the demographic impression
aggregator 126 generates the aggregate demographic impression data
106 by associating the aggregate age-corrected PDF calculated at
block 906 with a count of the demographic impressions retrieved at
block 904. Example program 900 then ends.
[0096] FIG. 10 is a block diagram of an example processor platform
1100 structured to execute the instructions of FIGS. 7, 8, 9,
and/or 13 to implement the age corrector 124, the impression
handler 120, the demographic impression aggregator 126, the
impressions collectors 204, the age adjuster 206, the age predictor
304, the age prediction model 306, the age cache 308, the age
updater 310, and/or the model corrector 312 of FIGS. 1, 2, 3 and/or
6. By way of example, FIG. 10 shows the age predictor 304 and the
age updater 310, but processor platform 1000 may include more of,
fewer of, or different ones of the age corrector 124, the
impression handler 120, the demographic impression aggregator 126,
the impressions collectors 204, the age adjuster 206, the age
predictor 304, the age prediction model 306, the age cache 308, the
age updater 310, and/or the model corrector 312 of FIGS. 1, 2, 3,
and/or 6. The processor platform 1000 can be, for example, a
server, a personal computer, a workstation, or any other type of
computing device.
[0097] The processor platform 1000 of the illustrated example
includes a processor 1012. The processor 1012 of the illustrated
example is hardware. For example, the processor 1012 can be
implemented by one or more integrated circuits, logic circuits,
microprocessors or controllers from any desired family or
manufacturer.
[0098] The processor 1012 of the illustrated example includes a
local memory 1013 (e.g., a cache). The processor 1012 of the
illustrated example is in communication with a main memory
including a volatile memory 1014 and a non-volatile memory 1016 via
a bus 1018. The volatile memory 1014 may be implemented by
Synchronous Dynamic Random Access Memory (SDRAM), Dynamic Random
Access Memory (DRAM), RAIVIBUS Dynamic Random Access Memory (RDRAM)
and/or any other type of random access memory device. The
non-volatile memory 1016 may be implemented by flash memory and/or
any other desired type of memory device. Access to the main memory
1014, 1016 is controlled by a memory controller.
[0099] The processor platform 1000 of the illustrated example also
includes an interface circuit 1020. The interface circuit 1020 may
be implemented by any type of interface standard, such as an
Ethernet interface, a universal serial bus (USB), and/or a PCI
express interface.
[0100] In the illustrated example, one or more input devices 1022
are connected to the interface circuit 1020. The input device(s)
1022 permit(s) a user to enter data and commands into the processor
1012. The input device(s) can be implemented by, for example, an
audio sensor, a microphone, a camera (still or video), a keyboard,
a button, a mouse, a touchscreen, a track-pad, a trackball,
isopoint and/or a voice recognition system.
[0101] One or more output devices 1024 are also connected to the
interface circuit 1020 of the illustrated example. The output
devices 1124 can be implemented, for example, by display devices
(e.g., a light emitting diode (LED), an organic light emitting
diode (OLED), a liquid crystal display, a cathode ray tube display
(CRT), a touchscreen, a tactile output device, a printer and/or
speakers). The interface circuit 1020 of the illustrated example,
thus, typically includes a graphics driver card, a graphics driver
chip or a graphics driver processor.
[0102] The interface circuit 1020 of the illustrated example also
includes a communication device such as a transmitter, a receiver,
a transceiver, a modem and/or network interface card to facilitate
exchange of data with external machines (e.g., computing devices of
any kind) via a network 1026 (e.g., an Ethernet connection, a
digital subscriber line (DSL), a telephone line, coaxial cable, a
cellular telephone system, etc.).
[0103] The processor platform 1000 of the illustrated example also
includes one or more mass storage devices 1028 for storing software
and/or data. Examples of such mass storage devices 1028 include
floppy disk drives, hard drive disks, compact disk drives, Blu-ray
disk drives, RAID systems, and digital versatile disk (DVD)
drives.
[0104] Coded instructions 1032 to implement the machine readable
instructions of FIGS. 7, 8, 9, and/or 13 may be stored in the mass
storage device 1028, in the volatile memory 1014, in the
non-volatile memory 1016, and/or on a removable tangible computer
readable storage medium such as a CD or DVD.
[0105] FIG. 11 depicts an example system 1100 to collect user
information (e.g., user information 1102a, 1102b) from distributed
database proprietors 110a, 110b for associating with impressions of
media presented at a client device 104. Examples disclosed herein
to predict ages may be used in connection with demographic
impressions collected using example techniques described below in
connection with FIG. 11.
[0106] In the illustrated examples, user information 1102a, 1102b
or user data includes one or more of demographic data, purchase
data, and/or other data indicative of user activities, behaviors,
and/or preferences related to information accessed via the
Internet, purchases, media accessed on electronic devices, physical
locations (e.g., retail or commercial establishments, restaurants,
venues, etc.) visited by users, etc. In some examples, user
information 1102a, 1102b is stored in the subscriber accounts
database 122 of FIG. 1. Examples of FIG. 11 are described in
connection with a mobile device, which may be a mobile phone, a
mobile communication device, a tablet, a gaming device, a portable
media presentation device, an in-vehicle or vehicle-integrated
communication system, such as an automobile infotainment system
with wireless communication capabilities, etc. However, examples
disclosed herein may be implemented in connection with impressions
corresponding to mobile and/or non-mobile devices. Example
non-mobile devices include internet appliances, smart televisions,
internet terminals, computers, or any other device capable of
presenting media received via network communications.
[0107] In the illustrated example of FIG. 11, to track media
impressions on the client device 104, the AME 108 partners with or
cooperates with an app publisher 1110 to download and install a
data collector 1112 on the client device 104. The app publisher
1110 of the illustrated example may be a software app developer
that develops and distributes apps to mobile devices and/or a
distributor that receives apps from software app developers and
distributes the apps to mobile devices. The data collector 1112 may
be included in other software loaded onto the client device 104,
such as the operating system 1114, an application (or app) 1116, a
web browser 1117, and/or any other software. In some examples, the
example client device 104 of FIG. 11 is a non-locally metered
device. For example, the client device 104 of a non-panelist
household does not support and/or has not been provided with
specific metering software (e.g., dedicated metering software
provided directly by the AME 108 and executing as a foreground or
background process for the sole purpose of monitoring media
accesses/exposure).
[0108] Any of the example software 1114-1117 may present media 1118
received from a media publisher 1120. The media 1118 may be an
advertisement, video, audio, text, a graphic, a web page, news,
educational media, entertainment media, or any other type of media.
In the illustrated example, a media ID 1122 is provided in the
media 1118 to enable identifying the media 1118 so that the AME 108
can credit the media 1118 with media impressions when the media
1118 is presented on the client device 104 or any other device that
is monitored by the AME 108.
[0109] The data collector 1112 of the illustrated example includes
instructions (e.g., Java, java script, or any other computer
language or script) that, when executed by the client device 104,
cause the client device 104 to collect the media ID 1122 of the
media 1118 presented by the app program 1116 and/or the client
device 104, and to collect one or more device/user identifier(s)
114 stored in the client device 104. The device/user identifier(s)
114 of the illustrated example include identifiers that can be used
by corresponding ones of the partner database proprietors 110a,
110b to identify the user or users of the client device 104, and to
locate user information 1102a, 1102b corresponding to the user(s).
For example, the device/user identifier(s) 114 used in connection
with examples of FIG. 11 may include hardware identifiers (e.g., an
international mobile equipment identity (IMEI), a mobile equipment
identifier (MEID), a media access control (MAC) address, etc.), an
app store identifier (e.g., a Google Android ID, an Apple ID, an
Amazon ID, etc.), an open source unique device identifier
(OpenUDID), an open device identification number (ODIN), a login
identifier (e.g., a username), an email address, user agent data
(e.g., application type, operating system, software vendor,
software revision, etc.), third-party service identifiers (e.g.,
advertising service identifiers, device usage analytics service
identifiers, demographics collection service identifiers), web
storage data, document object model (DOM) storage data, local
shared objects (also referred to as "Flash cookies"), an automobile
vehicle identification number (VIN), etc. In some examples, fewer
or more device/user identifier(s) 114 may be used. In addition,
although only two partner database proprietors 110a, 110b are shown
in FIG. 11, the AME 108 may partner with any number of partner
database proprietors to collect distributed user information (e.g.,
the user information 1102a, 1102b).
[0110] In some examples, the client device 104 may not allow access
to identification information stored in the client device 104. For
such instances, the disclosed examples enable the AME 108 to store
an AME-provided identifier (e.g., an identifier managed and tracked
by the AME 108) in the client device 104 to track media impressions
on the client device 104. For example, the AME 108 may provide
instructions in the data collector 1112 to set an AME-provided
identifier in memory space accessible by and/or allocated to the
app program 1116. The data collector 1112 uses the identifier as a
device/user identifier 114. In such examples, the AME-provided
identifier set by the data collector 1112 persists in the memory
space even when the app program 1116 and the data collector 1112
are not running. In this manner, the same AME-provided identifier
can remain associated with the client device 104 for extended
durations and from app to app. In some examples in which the data
collector 1112 sets an identifier in the client device 104, the AME
108 may recruit a user of the client device 104 as a panelist, and
may store user information collected from the user during a
panelist registration process and/or collected by monitoring user
activities/behavior via the client device 104 and/or any other
device used by the user and monitored by the AME 108. In this
manner, the AME 108 can associate user information of the user
(from panelist data stored by the AME 108) with media impressions
attributed to the user on the client device 104.
[0111] In the illustrated example, the data collector 1112 sends
the media ID 1122 and the one or more device/user identifier(s) 114
as collected data 1126 to the app publisher 1110. Alternatively,
the data collector 1112 may be configured to send the collected
data 1126 to another collection entity (other than the app
publisher 1110) that has been contracted by the AME 108 or is
partnered with the AME 108 to collect media ID's (e.g., the media
ID 1122) and device/user identifiers (e.g., the device/user
identifier(s) 114) from mobile devices (e.g., the client device
104). In the illustrated example, the app publisher 1110 (or a
collection entity) sends the media ID 1122 and the device/user
identifier(s) 114 as impression data 102 to a server 1132 at the
AME 108. The impression data 102 of the illustrated example may
include one media ID 1122 and one or more device/user identifier(s)
114 to report a single impression of the media 1118, or it may
include numerous media ID's 1122 and device/user identifier(s) 114
based on numerous instances of collected data (e.g., the collected
data 1126) received from the client device 104 and/or other mobile
devices to report multiple impressions of media.
[0112] In the illustrated example, the server 1132 stores the
impression data 102 in an AME media impressions store 1134 (e.g., a
database or other data structure). Subsequently, the AME 108 sends
the device/user identifier(s) 114 to corresponding partner database
proprietors (e.g., the partner database proprietors 110a, 110b) to
receive user information (e.g., the user information 1102a, 1102b)
corresponding to the device/user identifier(s) 114 from the partner
database proprietors 110a, 110b so that the AME 108 can associate
the user information with corresponding media impressions of media
(e.g., the media 1118) presented at mobile devices (e.g., the
client device 104).
[0113] In some examples, to protect the privacy of the user of the
client device 104, the media identifier 1122 and/or the device/user
identifier(s) 114 are encrypted before they are sent to the AME 108
and/or to the partner database proprietors 110a, 110b. In other
examples, the media identifier 1122 and/or the device/user
identifier(s) 114 are not encrypted.
[0114] After the AME 108 receives the device/user identifier(s)
114, the AME 108 sends device/user identifier logs 1136a, 1136b to
corresponding partner database proprietors (e.g., the partner
database proprietors 110a, 110b). In some examples, each of the
device/user identifier logs 1136a, 1136b includes a single
device/user identifier. In some examples, some or all of the
device/user identifier logs 136a, 1136b include numerous aggregate
device/user identifiers 114 received at the AME 108 over time from
one or more mobile devices. After receiving the device/user
identifier logs 1136a, 1136b, each of the partner database
proprietors 110a, 110b looks up its users corresponding to the
device/user identifiers 114 in the respective logs 136a-b. In this
manner, each of the partner database proprietors 104a-b collects
user information 1102a, 1102b corresponding to users identified in
the device/user identifier logs 1136a, 1136b for sending to the AME
108. For example, if the partner database proprietor 110a is a
wireless service provider and the device/user identifier log 1136a
includes IMEI numbers recognizable by the wireless service
provider, the wireless service provider accesses its subscriber
records to find users having IMEI numbers matching the IMEI numbers
received in the device/user identifier log 1136a. When the users
are identified, the wireless service provider copies the users'
user information to the user information 1102a for delivery to the
AME 108.
[0115] In some other examples, the example data collector 1112
sends the device/user identifier(s) 114 from the client device 104
to the app publisher 1110 in the collected data 1126, and it also
sends the device/user identifier(s) 114 to the media publisher
1120. In such other examples, the data collector 1112 does not
collect the media ID 1122 from the media 1118 at the client device
104 as the data collector 1112 does in the example system 1100 of
FIG. 11. Instead, the media publisher 1120 that publishes the media
1118 to the client device 104 retrieves the media ID 1122 from the
media 1118 that it publishes. The media publisher 1120 then
associates the media ID 1122 to the device/user identifier(s) 114
received from the data collector 1112 executing in the client
device 104, and sends collected data 138 to the app publisher 1110
that includes the media ID 1122 and the associated device/user
identifier(s) 114 of the client device 104. For example, when the
media publisher 1120 sends the media 1118 to the client device 104,
it does so by identifying the client device 104 as a destination
device for the media 1118 using one or more of the device/user
identifier(s) 114 received from the client device 104. In this
manner, the media publisher 1120 can associate the media ID 1122 of
the media 1118 with the device/user identifier(s) 114 of the client
device 104 indicating that the media 1118 was sent to the
particular client device 104 for presentation (e.g., to generate an
impression of the media 1118).
[0116] Alternatively, in some other examples in which the data
collector 1112 is configured to send the device/user identifier(s)
114 to the media publisher 1120, and the data collector 1112 does
not collect the media ID 1122 from the media 1118 at the client
device 104, the media publisher 1102 sends impression data 102 to
the AME 108. For example, the media publisher 1120 that publishes
the media 1118 to the client device 104 also retrieves the media ID
1122 from the media 1118 that it publishes, and associates the
media ID 1122 with the device/user identifier(s) 114 of the client
device 104. The media publisher 1120 then sends the media
impression data 102, including the media ID 1122 and the
device/user identifier(s) 114, to the AME 108. For example, when
the media publisher 1120 sends the media 1118 to the client device
104, it does so by identifying the client device 104 as a
destination device for the media 1118 using one or more of the
device/user identifier(s) 114. In this manner, the media publisher
1120 can associate the media ID 1122 of the media 1118 with the
device/user identifier(s) 114 of the client device 104 indicating
that the media 1118 was sent to the particular client device 104
for presentation (e.g., to generate an impression of the media
1118). In the illustrated example, after the AME 108 receives the
impression data 102 from the media publisher 1120, the AME 108 can
then send the device/user identifier logs 1136a, 1136b to the
partner database proprietors 110a, 110b to request the user
information 1102a, 1102b as described above.
[0117] Although the media publisher 1120 is shown separate from the
app publisher 1110 in FIG. 11, the app publisher 1110 may implement
at least some of the operations of the media publisher 1120 to send
the media 1118 to the client device 104 for presentation. For
example, advertisement providers, media providers, or other
information providers may send media (e.g., the media 1118) to the
app publisher 1110 for publishing to the client device 104 via, for
example, the app program 1116 when it is executing on the client
device 104. In such examples, the app publisher 1110 implements the
operations described above as being performed by the media
publisher 1120.
[0118] Additionally or alternatively, in contrast with the examples
described above in which the client device 104 sends identifiers to
the AME 108 (e.g., via the application publisher 1110, the media
publisher 1120, and/or another entity), in other examples the
client device 104 (e.g., the data collector 1112 installed on the
client device 104) sends the identifiers (e.g., the user/device
identifier(s) 114) directly to the respective database proprietors
110a, 110b (e.g., not via the AME 108). In such examples, the
example client device 104 sends the media identifier 1122 to the
AME 108 (e.g., directly or through an intermediary such as via the
application publisher 1110), but does not send the media identifier
1122 to the database proprietors 110a, 110b.
[0119] As mentioned above, the example partner database proprietors
110a. 110b provide the user information 1102a, 1102b to the example
AME 108 for matching with the media identifier 1122 to form media
impression information. As also mentioned above, the database
proprietors 110a, 110b are not provided copies of the media
identifier 1122. Instead, the client device 104 provides the
database proprietors 110a, 110b with impression identifiers 1140.
An impression identifier 1140 uniquely identifies an impression
event relative to other impression events of the client device 104
so that an occurrence of an impression at the client device 104 can
be distinguished from other occurrences of impressions. However,
the impression identifier 1140 does not itself identify the media
associated with that impression event. In such examples, the
impression data 102 from the client device 104 to the AME 108 also
includes the impression identifier 1140 and the corresponding media
identifier 1122. To match the user information 1102a, 1102b with
the media identifier 1122, the example partner database proprietors
110a, 110b provide the user information 1102a, 1102b to the AME 108
in association with the impression identifier 1140 for the
impression event that triggered the collection of the user
information 1102a, 1102b. In this manner, the AME 108 can match the
impression identifier 1140 received from the client device 104 via
the impression data 102 to a corresponding impression identifier
1140 received from the partner database proprietors 110a, 110b via
the user information 1102a, 1102b to associate the media identifier
1122 received from the client device 104 with demographic
information in the user information 1102a, 1102b received from the
database proprietors 110a, 110b.
[0120] The impression identifier 1140 of the illustrated example is
structured to reduce or avoid duplication of audience member counts
for audience size measures. For example, the example partner
database proprietors 110a, 110b provide the user information 1102a.
1102b and the impression identifier 1140 to the AME 108 on a
per-impression basis (e.g., each time a client device 104 sends a
request including an encrypted identifier and an impression
identifier 1140 to the partner database proprietor 110a, 110b)
and/or on an aggregated basis. When aggregate impression data is
provided in the user information 1102a, 1102b, the user information
1102a, 1102b includes indications of multiple impressions (e.g.,
multiple impression identifiers 1140) at mobile devices. In some
examples, aggregate impression data includes unique audience values
(e.g., a measure of the quantity of unique audience members exposed
to particular media), total impression count, frequency of
impressions, etc. In some examples, the individual logged
impressions are not discernable from the aggregate impression
data.
[0121] As such, it is not readily discernable from the user
information 1102a, 1102b whether instances of individual user-level
impressions logged at the database proprietors 110a, 110b
correspond to the same audience member such that unique audience
sizes indicated in the aggregate impression data of the
user-information 1102a, 1102b are inaccurate for being based on
duplicate counting of audience members. However, the impression
identifier 1140 provided to the AME 108 enables the AME 108 to
distinguish unique impressions and avoid overcounting a number of
unique users and/or devices accessing the media. For example, the
relationship between the user information 1102a from the partner A
database proprietor 110a and the user information 1102b from the
partner B database proprietor 110b for the client device 104 is not
readily apparent to the AME 108. By including an impression
identifier 1140 (or any similar identifier), the example AME 108
can associate user information corresponding to the same user
between the user information 1102a, 1102b based on matching
impression identifiers 140 stored in both of the user information
1102a, 1102b. The example AME 108 can use such matching impression
identifiers 1140 across the user information 1102a, 1102b to avoid
overcounting mobile devices and/or users (e.g., by only counting
unique users instead of counting the same user multiple times).
[0122] A same user may be counted multiple times if, for example,
an impression causes the client device 104 to send multiple
user/device identifiers to multiple different database proprietors
110a, 110b without an impression identifier (e.g., the impression
identifier 1140). For example, a first one of the database
proprietors 110a sends first user information 1102a to the AME 108,
which signals that an impression occurred. In addition, a second
one of the database proprietors 110b sends second user information
1102b to the AME 108, which signals (separately) that an impression
occurred. In addition, separately, the client device 104 sends an
indication of an impression to the AME 108. Without knowing that
the user information 1102a, 1102b is from the same impression, the
AME 108 has an indication from the client device 104 of a single
impression and indications from the database proprietors 110a, 110b
of multiple impressions.
[0123] To avoid overcounting impressions, the AME 108 can use the
impression identifier 1140. For example, after looking up user
information 1102a, 1102b, the example partner database proprietors
110a, 110b transmit the impression identifier 1140 to the AME 108
with corresponding user information 1102a, 1102b. The AME 108
matches the impression identifier 1140 obtained directly from the
client device 104 to the impression identifier 1140 received from
the database proprietors 110a, 110b with the user information
102a-b to thereby associate the user information 1102a, 1102b with
the media identifier 1122 and to generate impression information.
This is possible because the AME 108 received the media identifier
1122 in association with the impression identifier 1140 directly
from the client device 104. Therefore, the AME 108 can map user
data from two or more database proprietors 110a, 110b to the same
media exposure event, thus avoiding double counting.
[0124] Each unique impression identifier 1140 in the illustrated
example is associated with a specific impression of media on the
client device 104. The partner database proprietors 110a, 110b
receive the respective user/device identifiers 114 and generate the
user information 1102a, 1102b independently (e.g., without regard
to others of the partner database proprietors 104a-b) and without
knowledge of the media identifier 1122 involved in the impression.
Without an indication that a particular user demographic profile in
the user information 1102a (received from the partner database
proprietor 110a) is associated with (e.g., the result of) the same
impression at the client device 104 as a particular user
demographic profile in the user information 1102b (received from
the partner database proprietor 110b independently of the user
information 1102a received from the partner database proprietor
110a), and without reference to the impression identifier 1140, the
AME 108 may not be able to associate the user information 1102a
with the user information 1102b and/or cannot determine that the
different pieces of user information 1102a, 1102b are associated
with a same impression and could, therefore, count the user
information 1102a and the user information 1102b as corresponding
to two different users/devices and/or two different
impressions.
[0125] The examples of FIG. 11 illustrate methods and apparatus for
collecting impression data at an audience measurement entity (or
other entity). The examples of FIG. 11 may be used to collect
impression information for any type of media, including static
media (e.g., advertising images), streaming media (e.g., streaming
video and/or audio, including content, advertising, and/or other
types of media), and/or other types of media. For static media
(e.g., media that does not have a time component such as images,
text, a webpage, etc.), the example AME 108 records an impression
once for each occurrence of the media being presented, delivered,
or otherwise provided to the client device 104. For streaming media
(e.g., video, audio, etc.), the example AME 108 measures
demographics for media occurring over a period of time. For
example, the AME 108 (e.g., via the app publisher 1110 and/or the
media publisher 1120) provides beacon instructions to a client
application or client software (e.g., the OS 1114, the web browser
1117, the app 1116, etc.) executing on the client device 104 when
media is loaded at client application/software 1114-1117. In some
examples, the beacon instructions are embedded in the streaming
media and delivered to the client device 106 via the streaming
media. In some examples, the beacon instructions cause the client
application/software 1114-1117 to transmit a request (e.g., a
pingback message) to an impression monitoring server 1132 at
regular and/or irregular intervals (e.g., every minute, every 30
seconds, every 2 minutes, etc.). The example impression monitoring
server 1132 identifies the requests from the web browser 1117 and,
in combination with one or more database proprietors, associates
the impression information for the media with demographics of the
user of the web browser 1117.
[0126] In some examples, a user loads (e.g., via the browser 1117)
a web page from a web site publisher, in which the web page
corresponds to a particular 60-minute video. As a part of or in
addition to the example web page, the web site publisher causes the
data collector 1112 to send a pingback message (e.g., a beacon
request) to a beacon server 1142 by, for example, providing the
browser 1117 with beacon instructions. For example, when the beacon
instructions are executed by the example browser 1117, the beacon
instructions cause the data collector 1112 to send pingback
messages (e.g., beacon requests, HTTP requests, pings) to the
impression monitoring server 1132 at designated intervals (e.g.,
once every minute or any other suitable interval). The example
beacon instructions (or a redirect message from, for example, the
impression monitoring server 1132 or a database proprietor 104a-b)
further cause the data collector 1112 to send pingback messages or
beacon requests to one or more database proprietors 110a, 110b that
collect and/or maintain demographic information about users. The
database proprietor 110a, 110b transmits demographic information
about the user associated with the data collector 1112 for
combining or associating with the impression determined by the
impression monitoring server 1132. If the user closes the web page
containing the video before the end of the video, the beacon
instructions are stopped, and the data collector 1112 stops sending
the pingback messages to the impression monitoring server 1132. In
some examples, the pingback messages include timestamps and/or
other information indicative of the locations in the video to which
the numerous pingback messages correspond. By determining a number
and/or content of the pingback messages received at the impression
monitoring server 1132 from the client device 104, the example
impression monitoring server 1132 can determine that the user
watched a particular length of the video (e.g., a portion of the
video for which pingback messages were received at the impression
monitoring server 1132).
[0127] The client device 104 of the illustrated example executes a
client application/software 1114-1117 that is directed to a host
website (e.g., www.acme.com) from which the media 1118 (e.g.,
audio, video, interactive media, streaming media, etc.) is obtained
for presenting via the client device 104. In the illustrated
example, the media 1118 (e.g., advertisements and/or content) is
tagged with identifier information (e.g., a media ID 1122, a
creative type ID, a placement ID, a publisher source URL, etc.) and
a beacon instruction. The example beacon instruction causes the
client application/software 1114-1117 to request further beacon
instructions from a beacon server 1142 that will instruct the
client application/software 1114-1117 on how and where to send
beacon requests to report impressions of the media 1118. For
example, the example client application/software 1114-1117
transmits a request including an identification of the media 1118
(e.g., the media identifier 1122) to the beacon server 1142. The
beacon server 1142 then generates and returns beacon instructions
1144 to the example client device 104. Although the beacon server
1142 and the impression monitoring server 132 are shown separately,
in some examples the beacon server 1142 and the impression
monitoring server 1132 are combined. In the illustrated example,
beacon instructions 1144 include URLs of one or more database
proprietors (e.g., one or more of the partner database proprietors
110a, 110b) or any other server to which the client device 104
should send beacon requests (e.g., impression requests). In some
examples, a pingback message or beacon request may be implemented
as an HTTP request. However, whereas a transmitted HTTP request
identifies a webpage or other resource to be downloaded, the
pingback message or beacon request includes the audience
measurement information (e.g., ad campaign identification, content
identifier, and/or device/user identification information) as its
payload. The server to which the pingback message or beacon request
is directed is programmed to log the audience measurement data of
the pingback message or beacon request as an impression (e.g., an
ad and/or content impression depending on the nature of the media
tagged with the beaconing instructions). In some examples, the
beacon instructions received with the tagged media 1118 include the
beacon instructions 1144. In such examples, the client
application/software 1114-1117 does not need to request beacon
instructions 1144 from a beacon server 1142 because the beacon
instructions 1144 are already provided in the tagged media
1118.
[0128] When the beacon instructions 1144 are executed by the client
device 104, the beacon instructions 1144 cause the client device
104 to send beacon requests (e.g., repeatedly at designated
intervals) to a remote server (e.g., the impression monitoring
server 1132, the media publisher 1120, the database proprietors
110a, 110b, or another server) specified in the beacon instructions
1144. In the illustrated example, the specified server is a server
of the AME 108, namely, at the impression monitoring server 1132.
The beacon instructions 1144 may be implemented using JavaScript or
any other types of instructions or script executable via a client
application (e.g., a web browser) including, for example, Java,
HTML, etc.
[0129] FIG. 12 depicts an example age prediction model 306
generated based on a classification tree (e.g., a decision tree)
that uses subscriber activity metrics 138 to predict real ages
(e.g., predicted age PDFs 305) of subscribers of a database
proprietor 110 (FIG. 1). The example subscriber activity metrics
138 include, but are not limited to, user age reported to database
proprietor, number of contacts (e.g., friends, connections, etc.),
median age of contacts, privacy of birthdate (e.g., birthdate is or
is not displayed to contacts), year of high school graduation,
gender, whether a current address is associated with the
subscriber's profile, whether a profile picture is associated with
the subscriber's profile, whether a mobile phone number is
associated with the subscriber's profile, subscriber activity that
occurred within the last thirty days, subscriber activity that
occurred within the last seven days, email address the subscriber
used to register is in the .edu domain, percent of contacts that
are female, degree of privacy settings (e.g., high privacy, medium
privacy, low privacy, etc.), frequency of login (F.sub.LOGIN),
frequency of posting status updates (F.sub.POST), percentage of
logins done via a mobile device (LOGIN), whether a relationship
status is associated with the subscriber's profile, number of days
since the subscriber registered with the database proprietor,
number of messages sent in the past seven days, webpages viewed in
the past seven days, etc.
[0130] In the illustrated example of FIG, 12, the age prediction
model 306 is a classification tree. In the illustrated example of
FIG. 12, the classification tree implementing the age prediction
model 306 may include many nodes and terminals. A detailed view of
a portion of the example age prediction model 306 is shown in FIG.
12 in which the example age prediction model has intermediate
(e.g., decision) nodes 1200a-1200c and terminal (e.g., prediction)
nodes 1202a-1202d. The intermediate nodes 1200a-1200c represent
test conditions based on the subscriber activity metrics 138 that
result in branching paths. For example, an intermediate node 1200a
may represent a test condition based on the frequency with which a
subscriber logs into the database proprietor 110. In such an
example, the test condition may be whether the subscriber logs into
the database proprietor either (i) less than five times per week
(<5 times/week), or (ii) greater than or equal to five times per
week (>5 times/week). The branching paths may either lead to
another intermediate node 1200b-1200c or one of the terminal nodes
1202a-1202d. In the illustrated example, the example terminal nodes
1202a-1202d represent a classification (e.g., the predicted age PDF
305) based on the subscriber activity metrics 138 that is output
from the age prediction model 306 (e.g., and used by the age
predictor 304 of FIG. 3).
[0131] However, the predictive value of the age prediction model
306 model degrades over time as subscriber behaviors (e.g., as
measured by subscriber activity metrics 138) on which the age
prediction model 306 is based change over time. In some examples,
small changes in subscriber-behavior can change the terminal node
1202a-1202d reached by the age prediction model 306. The manner in
which outcomes are affect by such small behavior changes is
observable using the example age prediction model 306 of FIG. 12.
For example, in FIG. 12, the age prediction model 306 is used to
predict the real age (e.g., a predicted age PDF 305 associated with
terminal nodes 1202a-1202d) of a subscriber (e.g. "Subscriber A")
at day D=0 and at day D=822. In the illustrated example, the age
prediction model 306 is generated on day D=0. On day D=0, the login
frequency of the subscriber A is greater than or equal to five
times per week. As a result, a decision at an intermediate node
1200a using login frequency (F.sub.LOGIN) as a test condition, the
branches down a path that leads to an intermediate node 1202c. In
the illustrated example, a decision at an intermediate node 1200c
using login type (LOGIN) as a test condition branches down a path
leading to a terminal node 1202c because less than 50% of the
logins by subscriber A are via a mobile device type when logging
into the database proprietor 110. In the illustrated example, by
day D=822 (e.g., 822 days after day D=0), the subscriber activity
metrics 138 of the subscriber A change so that frequency of login
(F.sub.LOGIN) is less than five times per week. As a result, if the
prediction model 306 generated on day D=0 is used to predict the
real age of the subscriber on day D=822, the resulting terminal
node 1202b would be different compared to the results on day
D=0.
[0132] FIG. 13 is a flow diagram representative of example machine
readable instructions 1300 that may be executed to implement the
example audience measurement entity 108 of FIG. 6 and/or the age
corrector 124 of FIG. 3 to correct for time-based deterioration of
an age prediction model (e.g., the age prediction model 306 of FIG.
3). The example instructions 1300 may be executed after collecting
impression information (e.g., via the AME impressions collector 618
of FIG. 6) and receiving demographic information (e.g., numbers of
impressions and/or audience counts attributed to demographic
groups, where the demographic groups are defined at least partially
based on ages) corresponding to the impression information (e.g.,
via the D.sub.P impressions collector 630).
[0133] The example age predictor 304 of FIG. 3 estimates first ages
of the audience members based on demographic information received
from a database proprietor (e.g., the database proprietor 110)
(block 1302). In the example of FIG. 13, the first ages correspond
to a first time, such as the time at which an age prediction model
306 used to estimate the first ages is trained or calibrated.
[0134] The example age predictor 304 estimates second ages of the
audience members based on the demographic information (block 1304).
In the example of FIG. 13, the second ages correspond to a second
time that is after the first time. The example age predictor 304
uses the same age prediction model 306 used to estimate the first
ages, which may have decreased in accuracy between the first time
and the second time.
[0135] The example age predictor 304 estimates a third age of an
audience member who is not included in the audience members from
the database proprietor 110 (block 1306). In the example of FIG.
13, the third age is estimated using the same age prediction model
used to estimate the first ages and the second ages, and
corresponds to the second time. As a result, the third age may have
a reduced accuracy compared to if the age prediction model 306 was
recently trained and/or calibrated. In some examples, the age
predictor 304 estimates of the third age in response to determining
that the audience member has not been previously identified. For
example, the age predictor 304 may determine that the audience
member not being associated with an AME identifier such as an AME
cookie.
[0136] Blocks 1302, 1304, and/or 1306 may be implemented as
described above in connection with FIGS. 7 and/or 8 above. For
example, the predicted first, second, and third ages may each have
multiple ages and associated probabilities based on the definitions
of the age prediction probability density functions and/or the
decision tree. As described below, the example model corrector 312
may correct the ages in the age prediction PDFs for deterioration
of the age prediction model that is used to determine the age
prediction PDFs. In some examples, the age prediction PDFs are
converted to a single age by, for example, weighting the ages in
the age prediction PDFs by the respective probabilities of those
ages. In some examples, the conversion of age prediction PDFs to
age values may be influenced by additional correction factors.
[0137] In some examples, the age predictor 304 performs blocks
1302, 1304, and/or 1306 in response to request(s) by the model
corrector 312. In some examples, the model corrector 312 selects
the audience members for determination of the first and second ages
from a larger set of audience members based on the third age. In
some such examples, the age predictor 304 performs block 1306 prior
to blocks 1302 and 1304, and the audience members are selected to
be within an upper threshold age difference from the third age. In
some other examples, the audience members are selected from the
larger set of audience members to be within a same age bucket as
the third age.
[0138] The example model corrector 312 of FIG. 3 applies a window
function to the second ages to determine a distribution of ages
(block 1308). In the example of FIG. 13, the model corrector 312
uses the third age of the audience member as a mean of the
distribution. The example window function may be a probability
density function value (e.g., Equation 6 below), in which the third
age is the mean .mu. and the standard deviation .sigma. value is 1
but may be selected based on empirical observations.
f ( x .mu. , .sigma. ) = 1 .sigma. 2 .pi. - ( x - .mu. ) 2 2
.sigma. 2 ( Equation 6 ) ##EQU00005##
[0139] The second ages (input as x in Equation 6) are used to
calculate the respective window values. When the window values are
determined, the example model corrector 312 multiplies the window
values of the second ages by respective ones of the first ages to
determine corrected first age components (block 1310). For example,
a window value that is calculated for a second age of a first
subscriber is multiplied by the first age of the same first sub
scriber.
[0140] The example model corrector 312 sums the corrected first age
components and divides the total by a sum of the window values to
determine an estimated age of the audience member at the first time
(block 1312). For example, the model corrector 312 may determine
the estimated age of the audience member at the first time as a
weighted average of the first ages, using the window values
determined from the third age as the weights. As the third age
changes, the weights applied to the first ages change using the
example window function (e.g., distribution).
[0141] The example model corrector 312 determines the corrected age
of the audience member at the second time based on the estimated
age of the subscriber at the first time and a time difference
between the first and second times (block 1314). For example, the
model corrector 312 ages the audience member from the corrected age
at the first time (determined in block 1312) to the later time. In
other words, if the difference between the first time and the later
time is 2.00 years, the example model corrector 312 adds 2.00 years
to the corrected age determined in block 1312 to obtain the
corrected age at the later time.
[0142] The example instructions 1300 then end and/or repeat for
another subscriber. Example implementations of FIG. 13 are
described below in connection with FIGS. 14 and 15.
[0143] FIG. 14 is a graph of an example distribution 1400 that may
be generated by the model corrector 312 of FIG. 3 to correct for
deterioration of the age prediction model 306. The model corrector
312 uses a predicted age of a new audience member at the later time
(e.g., significantly later than the training or calibration of the
age prediction model) as the mean value 1402 of the distribution
1400. In the example of FIG. 14, the mean value 1402 is 30.00 years
old. Table 1 below includes first estimated ages of a group of
audience members for a first time (e.g., a time at which the age
prediction model 306 is trained or calibrated, such as t=0 years),
second estimated ages of the group of audience members for a second
time after the first time (e.g., t=2 years), and distribution
values based on the second ages and the predicted age. In the
example of FIG. 14 and Table 1, the distribution values are
probability density function values. The graph of FIG. 14 shows the
window values as a function of the corresponding estimated age at
the later time.
TABLE-US-00006 TABLE 6 Example Estimated Ages of a group of 100
Audience Members at times t = 0 and t = 2, and Window Function
values of ages at time t = 2, for a distribution mean of 30.00
Model Model Index t = 0 t = 2 window 1 27.00 28.09 0.065 2 25.13
26.91 0.003 3 39.28 40.60 0.000 4 37.21 38.31 0.000 5 22.25 23.53
0.000 6 35.55 37.38 0.000 7 39.75 40.93 0.000 8 39.64 41.37 0.000 9
31.50 33.21 0.002 10 31.95 33.20 0.002 11 39.76 41.65 0.000 12
24.73 26.01 0.000 13 26.82 28.06 0.061 14 32.39 34.04 0.000 15
28.53 29.60 0.369 16 27.51 28.89 0.215 17 33.78 34.97 0.000 18
35.28 36.78 0.000 19 26.46 27.62 0.023 20 39.71 41.02 0.000 21
20.59 22.27 0.000 22 30.68 32.61 0.013 23 39.92 41.86 0.000 24
33.84 35.13 0.000 25 40.00 41.47 0.000 26 23.74 25.63 0.000 27
33.12 34.24 0.000 28 32.38 33.87 0.000 29 22.22 23.86 0.000 30
29.87 31.51 0.127 31 30.32 32.16 0.039 32 22.89 24.07 0.000 33
28.13 29.62 0.371 34 31.46 32.71 0.010 35 27.29 29.10 0.265 36
33.04 34.79 0.000 37 37.65 39.19 0.000 38 28.94 30.92 0.262 39
27.57 29.17 0.283 40 21.91 23.72 0.000 41 21.10 23.08 0.000 42
21.97 23.72 0.000 43 32.08 33.37 0.001 44 34.82 35.90 0.000 45
29.73 31.69 0.095 46 26.86 28.60 0.150 47 32.01 33.80 0.000 48
33.20 35.06 0.000 49 39.48 40.85 0.000 50 34.16 35.59 0.000 51
27.16 28.33 0.099 52 23.62 24.95 0.000 53 39.58 41.39 0.000 54
20.06 21.54 0.000 55 38.34 39.85 0.000 56 29.46 30.87 0.274 57
23.98 25.95 0.000 58 35.40 36.62 0.000 59 26.51 27.76 0.033 60
34.89 36.83 0.000 61 35.82 37.30 0.000 62 35.91 37.26 0.000 63
26.69 28.30 0.095 64 31.43 32.79 0.008 65 24.95 26.12 0.000 66
37.68 39.29 0.000 67 21.37 23.17 0.000 68 29.31 30.33 0.378 69
26.39 27.61 0.023 70 28.97 30.80 0.290 71 28.22 29.70 0.381 72
24.22 25.26 0.000 73 20.77 22.30 0.000 74 34.70 36.18 0.000 75
29.93 31.53 0.123 76 37.33 39.03 0.000 77 29.29 30.46 0.358 78
21.53 22.85 0.000 79 35.23 36.47 0.000 80 23.44 25.13 0.000 81
22.24 24.12 0.000 82 38.35 40.03 0.000 83 23.21 24.70 0.000 84
39.08 40.21 0.000 85 29.83 31.29 0.173 86 25.23 26.68 0.002 87
32.96 34.70 0.000 88 32.65 33.70 0.000 89 26.71 28.21 0.080 90
30.69 31.76 0.085 91 27.92 29.85 0.395 92 35.68 37.57 0.000 93
34.26 35.77 0.000 94 34.58 35.94 0.000 95 37.05 38.65 0.000 96
25.54 27.06 0.005 97 39.70 41.01 0.000 98 27.40 28.71 0.173 99
28.33 29.66 0.376 100 35.35 37.33 0.000
[0144] The example model corrector 312 multiplies the window values
of Table 6 above by the corresponding ages at time t=0 of Table 6
above (e.g., 27.00*0.065 for audience member 1, 25.13*0.003 for
audience member 2, etc.) to apply the distribution to the ages at
the time t=0 (e.g., age components at time t=0). The model
corrector 312 then sums the age components to determine a corrected
age of the new audience member at time t=0. In the example of Table
6, there are 100 age components to be added. Using the example ages
in Table 6 and an estimated age of 30.00 at time t=2, the example
model corrector 312 determines the corrected age at time t=0 to be
28.42 years. To determine the corrected age of the new audience
member at time t=2, the example model corrector 312 adds the
difference between times t=0 and t=2 (e.g., 2 years) to the
corrected age at time t=0. In the example of FIG. 14 and Table 6,
the example model corrector 312 determines the corrected age at
time t=2 to be 30.42 years (e.g., 28.42 years+(2-0) years).
[0145] FIG. 15 is a graph of another example distribution 1500 that
may be generated by the model corrector 312 of FIG. 3 to correct
for deterioration of the age prediction model 306. The example
distribution 1500 of FIG. 15 uses a predicted age of 35.00 as the
mean 1502 instead of the mean of 30.00 of FIG. 14. Table 7 below
includes distribution values for the second estimated ages using
the mean value 1502 of 35.00.
TABLE-US-00007 TABLE 7 Example Estimated Ages of a group of 100
Audience Members at times t = 0 and t = 2, and Window Function
values of ages at time t = 2, for a distribution mean of 35.00
Model Model Index t = 0 t = 2 Window 1 27.00 28.09 0.000 2 25.13
26.91 0.000 3 39.28 40.60 0.000 4 37.21 38.31 0.002 5 22.25 23.53
0.000 6 35.55 37.38 0.024 7 39.75 40.93 0.000 8 39.64 41.37 0.000 9
31.50 33.21 0.081 10 31.95 33.20 0.079 11 39.76 41.65 0.000 12
24.73 26.01 0.000 13 26.82 28.06 0.000 14 32.39 34.04 0.251 15
28.53 29.60 0.000 16 27.51 28.89 0.000 17 33.78 34.97 0.399 18
35.28 36.78 0.082 19 26.46 27.62 0.000 20 39.71 41.02 0.000 21
20.59 22.27 0.000 22 30.68 32.61 0.023 23 39.92 41.86 0.000 24
33.84 35.13 0.396 25 40.00 41.47 0.000 26 23.74 25.63 0.000 27
33.12 34.24 0.299 28 32.38 33.87 0.212 29 22.22 23.86 0.000 30
29.87 31.51 0.001 31 30.32 32.16 0.007 32 22.89 24.07 0.000 33
28.13 29.62 0.000 34 31.46 32.71 0.029 35 27.29 29.10 0.000 36
33.04 34.79 0.390 37 37.65 39.19 0.000 38 28.94 30.92 0.000 39
27.57 29.17 0.000 40 21.91 23.72 0.000 41 21.10 23.08 0.000 42
21.97 23.72 0.000 43 32.08 33.37 0.105 44 34.82 35.90 0.266 45
29.73 31.69 0.002 46 26.86 28.60 0.000 47 32.01 33.80 0.194 48
33.20 35.06 0.398 49 39.48 40.85 0.000 50 34.16 35.59 0.334 51
27.16 28.33 0.000 52 23.62 24.95 0.000 53 39.58 41.39 0.000 54
20.06 21.54 0.000 55 38.34 39.85 0.000 56 29.46 30.87 0.000 57
23.98 25.95 0.000 58 35.40 36.62 0.108 59 26.51 27.76 0.000 60
34.89 36.83 0.075 61 35.82 37.30 0.029 62 35.91 37.26 0.031 63
26.69 28.30 0.000 64 31.43 32.79 0.035 65 24.95 26.12 0.000 66
37.68 39.29 0.000 67 21.37 23.17 0.000 68 29.31 30.33 0.000 69
26.39 27.61 0.000 70 28.97 30.80 0.000 71 28.22 29.70 0.000 72
24.22 25.26 0.000 73 20.77 22.30 0.000 74 34.70 36.18 0.200 75
29.93 31.53 0.001 76 37.33 39.03 0.000 77 29.29 30.46 0.000 78
21.53 22.85 0.000 79 35.23 36.47 0.135 80 23.44 25.13 0.000 81
22.24 24.12 0.000 82 38.35 40.03 0.000 83 23.21 24.70 0.000 84
39.08 40.21 0.000 85 29.83 31.29 0.000 86 25.23 26.68 0.000 87
32.96 34.70 0.381 88 32.65 33.70 0.172 89 26.71 28.21 0.000 90
30.69 31.76 0.002 91 27.92 29.85 0.000 92 35.68 37.57 0.015 93
34.26 35.77 0.297 94 34.58 35.94 0.257 95 37.05 38.65 0.001 96
25.54 27.06 0.000 97 39.70 41.01 0.000 98 27.40 28.71 0.000 99
28.33 29.66 0.000 100 35.35 37.33 0.026
[0146] Using the example ages in Table 7 and an estimated age of
35.00 at time t=2, the example model corrector 312 determines the
corrected age at time t=0 to be 33.55 years. To determine the
corrected age of the new audience member at time t=2, the example
model corrector 312 adds the difference between times t=0 and t=2
(e.g., 2 years) to the corrected age at time t=0. In the example of
FIG. 15 and Table 2, the example model corrector 312 determines the
corrected age at time t=2 to be 35.55 years (e.g., 33.55
years+(2-0) years). While example times t=0 and t=2 are used in the
above examples, any other times may be used.
[0147] From the foregoing, it will be appreciated that examples
have been disclosed which allow association of accurate age-based
demographic groups with impressions generated to exposure to media.
Additionally, it will be appreciated that examples have been
disclosed which enhance the operations of a computer to improve the
accuracy of impression-based data so that computers and processing
systems therein can be relied upon to produce audience analysis
information with higher accuracies.
[0148] Although certain example methods, apparatus and articles of
manufacture have been disclosed herein, the scope of coverage of
this patent is not limited thereto. On the contrary, this patent
covers all methods, apparatus and articles of manufacture fairly
falling within the scope of the claims of this patent.
* * * * *
References