U.S. patent application number 14/219487 was filed with the patent office on 2015-09-24 for predicting arrival times of vehicles based upon observed schedule adherence.
This patent application is currently assigned to Xerox Corporation. The applicant listed for this patent is Xerox Corporation. Invention is credited to Narayanan Unny Edakunni, Vaibhav Rajan, Abhishek Tripathi.
Application Number | 20150269491 14/219487 |
Document ID | / |
Family ID | 54142462 |
Filed Date | 2015-09-24 |
United States Patent
Application |
20150269491 |
Kind Code |
A1 |
Tripathi; Abhishek ; et
al. |
September 24, 2015 |
PREDICTING ARRIVAL TIMES OF VEHICLES BASED UPON OBSERVED SCHEDULE
ADHERENCE
Abstract
A method and system for determining real-time delay information
in a transportation system. Historical operational information
about the transportation system, including data related to a
plurality of arrival events corresponding to one or more stops
within the transportation system is received and a dependency graph
is built based upon the historic information. The dependency graph
defines relationships that exist in the transportation system
between the plurality of arrival events, each of the relationships
defining a specific dependent relationship between at least two of
the arrival events. Delay dependency values are fitted into the
dependency graph, each of the delay dependency values being
associated with one of the plurality of relationships and defining
a specific dependency value associated with that relationship.
Predictive delay information is determined based upon the fitted
dependency graph for one or more of the arrival events based upon
current operating information.
Inventors: |
Tripathi; Abhishek;
(Mahadevpura, IN) ; Rajan; Vaibhav; (Kammanahalli,
IN) ; Edakunni; Narayanan Unny; (Kannamangala,
IN) |
|
Applicant: |
Name |
City |
State |
Country |
Type |
Xerox Corporation |
Norwalk |
CT |
US |
|
|
Assignee: |
Xerox Corporation
Norwalk
CT
|
Family ID: |
54142462 |
Appl. No.: |
14/219487 |
Filed: |
March 19, 2014 |
Current U.S.
Class: |
706/46 |
Current CPC
Class: |
G06N 5/048 20130101;
G06N 5/04 20130101; G08G 1/0129 20130101; G08G 1/0141 20130101;
G01C 21/3492 20130101; G08G 1/127 20130101 |
International
Class: |
G06N 5/04 20060101
G06N005/04; G01C 21/34 20060101 G01C021/34; G06N 5/02 20060101
G06N005/02 |
Claims
1. A method for determining real-time delay information in a
transportation system, the method comprising: receiving, by a
processing device, historical operational information about the
transportation system, wherein the historical operational
information comprises data related to a plurality of arrival events
corresponding to one or more stops within the transportation
system; building, by the processing device, a dependency graph
based upon the historic information, wherein the dependency graph
defines a plurality of relationships that exist in the
transportation system between the plurality of arrival events, and
wherein each of the plurality of relationships defines a specific
dependent relationship between at least two of the plurality of
arrival events; fitting, by the processing device, a plurality of
delay dependency values into the dependency graph, wherein each of
the plurality of delay dependency values is associated with one of
the plurality of relationships and defines a specific dependency
value associated with that relationship; determining, by a
processing device, predictive delay information as determined based
upon the fitted dependency graph for one or more of the plurality
of arrival events based upon current operating information related
to the transportation system; and outputting, by a processing
device, an indication of the predictive delay information.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the dependency graph comprises at
least one parent node representing at least one of the plurality of
arrival events that is not dependent upon any other of the
plurality of arrival events
3. The method of claim 2, wherein determining predictive delay
information further comprises: receiving at least one real-time
observed delay for the at least one of the plurality of arrival
events associated with the parent node; propagating the delay
through the fitted dependency graph; and returning real-time
predictive delay information based upon the propagation.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein each arrival event comprises an
associated geographic location and an associated time of day that
the arrival event is predicted to occur.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein building the dependency graph
further comprises modeling the historical operational information
using a linear relation model to determine the relationships
between the plurality of arrival events.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein modeling the historical
operational information using a linear regression model further
comprises including external variables including at least one of
weather information, demographic information, and timing
information.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein fitting the dependency graph
further comprises: determining, for each relationship in the
dependency graph, a coefficient of regression for each of the
plurality of arrival events associated with the relationship; and
modeling each relationship using a linear regression model to
determine the delay dependency value for that relationship.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the linear regression model
comprises a lasso regression model.
9. The method of claim 1, wherein outputting an indication of
predictive delay information comprises at least one of: producing a
report outlining the predictive delay information; updating dynamic
display information at one or more stops in the transportation
system indicating at least a portion of the predictive delay
information; providing at least a portion of the predictive delay
information to one or more vehicle operators in the transportation
system; and providing at least a portion of the predictive delay
information to a dispatcher in the transportation system.
10. A system for determining real-time delay information in a
transportation system, the system comprising: a processing device;
and a non-transitory computer readable medium in communication with
the processing device, the computer readable medium comprising one
or more programming instructions for causing the processing device
to: receive historical operational information about the
transportation system, wherein the historical operational
information comprises data related to a plurality of arrival events
corresponding to one or more stops within the transportation
system, build a dependency graph based upon the historic
information, wherein the dependency graph defines a plurality of
relationships that exist in the transportation system between the
plurality of arrival events, and wherein each of the plurality of
relationships defines a specific dependent relationship between at
least two of the plurality of arrival events, fit a plurality of
delay dependency values into the dependency graph, wherein each of
the plurality of delay dependency values is associated with one of
the plurality of relationships and defines a specific dependency
value associated with that relationship, determine predictive delay
information as determined based upon the fitted dependency graph
for one or more of the plurality of arrival events based upon
current operating information related to the transportation system,
and output an indication of the predictive delay information.
11. The system of claim 10, wherein the dependency graph comprises
at least one parent node representing at least one of the plurality
of arrival events that is not dependent upon any other of the
plurality of arrival events
12. The system of claim 11, wherein the one or more instructions
for causing the processing device to determine predictive delay
information further comprise one or more instructions for causing
the processing device to: receive at least one real-time observed
delay for the at least one of the plurality of arrival events
associated with the parent node; propagate the delay through the
fitted dependency graph; and return real-time predictive delay
information based upon the propagation.
13. The system of claim 10, wherein each arrival event comprises an
associated geographic location and an associated time of day that
the arrival event is predicted to occur.
14. The system of claim 10, wherein the one or more instructions
for causing the processing device to build the dependency graph
further comprise one or more instructions for causing the
processing device to model the historical operational information
using a linear relation model to determine the relationships
between the plurality of arrival events.
15. The system of claim 14, wherein the one or more instructions
for causing the processing device to model the historical
operational information using a linear regression model further
comprise one or more instructions for causing the processing device
to include external variables including at least one of weather
information, demographic information, and timing information.
16. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more instructions for
causing the processing device to fit the dependency graph further
comprise one or more instructions for causing the processing device
to: determine, for each relationship in the dependency graph, a
coefficient of regression for each of the plurality of arrival
events associated with the relationship; and model each
relationship using a linear regression model to determine the delay
dependency value for that relationship.
17. The system of claim 16, wherein the linear regression model
comprises a lasso regression model.
18. The system of claim 10, wherein the one or more instructions
for causing the processing device to output an indication of
predictive delay information comprise one or more instructions for
causing the processing device to perform at least one of: produce a
report outlining the predictive delay information; update dynamic
display information at one or more stops in the transportation
system indicating at least a portion of the predictive delay
information; provide at least a portion of the predictive delay
information to one or more vehicle operators in the transportation
system; and provide at least a portion of the predictive delay
information to a dispatcher in the transportation system.
Description
BACKGROUND
[0001] The present disclosure relates to predicting arrival times
of vehicles in a public transportation system, such as a public
bus, train or plane system. More specifically, the present
disclosure relates to modeling dependency graphs to predict the
arrival times of the vehicles.
[0002] Public transportation is a crucial element of most cities
and towns all around the world. It is generally a safe, cheap and a
sustainable mode of transportation for large numbers of people.
However, adoption and utilization of public transportation by the
general public typically depends on the quality of service being
provided.
[0003] Many service providers monitor and analyze analytics related
to the services they provide. For example, computer aided
dispatch/automated vehicle location (CAD/AVL) is a system in which
public transportation vehicle positions are determined through a
global positioning system (GPS) and transmitted to a central server
located at a transit agency's operations center and stored in a
database for later use. The CAD/AVL system also typically includes
two-way radio communication by which a transit system operator can
communicate with vehicle drivers. The CAD/AVL system may further
log and transmit incident information including an event identifier
(ID) and a time stamp related to various events that occur during
operation of the vehicle. For example, for a public bus system,
logged incidents can include door opening and closing, driver
logging on or off, wheel chair lift usage, bike rack usage, current
bus condition, and other similar events. Some incidents are
automatically logged by the system as they are received from
vehicle on-board diagnostic systems or other data collection
devices, while others are entered into the system manually by the
operator of the vehicle.
[0004] For a typical public transportation company, service
reliability is defined as variability of service attributes.
Problems with reliability are ascribed to inherent variability in
the system, especially demand for transit, operator performance,
traffic, weather, road construction, crashes, and other similar
unavoidable or unforeseen events. As transportation providers
cannot control all aspects of operation owing to these random and
unpredictable disturbances, they must adjust to the disturbances to
maximize reliability. Several components that determine reliable
service are schedule adherence, maintenance of uniform headways
(e.g., the time between vehicles arriving in a transportation
system), minimal variance of maximum passenger loads, and overall
trip times. However, most public transportation companies put a
greater importance on schedule adherence, including predicted
arrival times of a vehicle at a specific stop.
[0005] Research related to travel time prediction is generally
classified into two categories: (1) dynamically tracking a vehicle
to predict its likely arrival time at a specific stop; and (2)
using historical information to map a set of static features (such
as time of day, bus stop location, route information) to calculate
arrival time at a specific stop. However, both of these approaches
have various drawbacks. Approach 1 relies heavily on the real-time
tracking signal (e.g., the GPS location of a vehicle) and is
greatly impacted by problems with the tracking signal such as loss
of signal during operation of the vehicle. Additionally, approach 1
is directed to real-time modeling of the movement of the vehicle,
and is more highly effective for short range predictions.
[0006] In approach 2, the models used are typically based upon
static features such as historical operating parameters of a
vehicle or a specific route within the transportation system. This
results in a prediction that is typically accurate for long range
time predictions, but it cannot quickly adapt to changing dynamics
within the transportation system that can result in unexpected
delays or changes to arrival times.
SUMMARY
[0007] In one general respect, the embodiments as described herein
disclose a method for determining real-time delay information in a
transportation system. The method includes receiving historical
operational information about the transportation system, wherein
the historical operational information comprises data related to a
plurality of arrival events corresponding to one or more stops
within the transportation system. The method further includes
building a dependency graph based upon the historic information,
wherein the dependency graph defines a plurality of relationships
that exist in the transportation system between the plurality of
arrival events, and wherein each of the plurality of relationships
defines a specific dependent relationship between at least two of
the plurality of arrival events and fitting a plurality of delay
dependency values into the dependency graph, wherein each of the
plurality of delay dependency values is associated with one of the
plurality of relationships and defines a specific dependency value
associated with that relationship. Additionally, the method
includes determining predictive delay information as determined
based upon the fitted dependency graph for one or more of the
plurality of arrival events based upon current operating
information related to the transportation system and outputting an
indication of the predictive delay information.
[0008] In another general respect, the embodiments as described
herein disclose a system for determining real-time delay
information in a transportation system. The system includes a
processing device and a non-transitory computer readable medium in
communication with the processing device. The computer readable
medium comprising one or more programming instructions for causing
the processing device to receive historical operational information
about the transportation system, wherein the historical operational
information comprises data related to a plurality of arrival events
corresponding to one or more stops within the transportation
system, build a dependency graph based upon the historic
information, wherein the dependency graph defines a plurality of
relationships that exist in the transportation system between the
plurality of arrival events, and wherein each of the plurality of
relationships defines a specific dependent relationship between at
least two of the plurality of arrival events, fit a plurality of
delay dependency values into the dependency graph, wherein each of
the plurality of delay dependency values is associated with one of
the plurality of relationships and defines a specific dependency
value associated with that relationship, determine predictive delay
information as determined based upon the fitted dependency graph
for one or more of the plurality of arrival events based upon
current operating information related to the transportation system,
and output an indication of the predictive delay information.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0009] FIG. 1 depicts a sample flow chart for determining real-time
delay information based upon observed schedule adherence according
to an embodiment.
[0010] FIG. 2 depicts a sample listing of historic data for
building a dependency model according to an embodiment.
[0011] FIG. 3 depicts a sample dependency graph according to an
embodiment.
[0012] FIG. 4 illustrates the sample dependency graph of FIG. 3
including a listing of nodal dependency values according to an
embodiment.
[0013] FIG. 5 illustrates the sample dependency graph of FIG. 4
including observed delay values for multiple nodes within the graph
according to an embodiment.
[0014] FIG. 6 depicts the sample dependency graph of FIG. 5 with
delay values propagated to each node within the graph according to
an embodiment.
[0015] FIGS. 7A and 7B depict sample visualizations of the delay
information as displayed on a map according to an embodiment.
[0016] FIG. 8 depicts various embodiments of a computing device for
implementing the various methods and processes described
herein.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0017] This disclosure is not limited to the particular systems,
devices and methods described, as these may vary. The terminology
used in the description is for the purpose of describing the
particular versions or embodiments only, and is not intended to
limit the scope.
[0018] As used in this document, the singular forms "a," "an," and
"the" include plural references unless the context clearly dictates
otherwise. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific
terms used herein have the same meanings as commonly understood by
one of ordinary skill in the art. As used in this document, the
term "comprising" means "including, but not limited to."
[0019] As used herein, a "computing device" refers to a device that
processes data in order to perform one or more functions. A
computing device may include any processor-based device such as,
for example, a server, a personal computer, a personal digital
assistant, a web-enabled phone, a smart terminal, a dumb terminal
and/or other electronic device capable of communicating in a
networked environment. A computing device may interpret and execute
instructions.
[0020] A "dependency graph" refers to a directed graph showing a
set of nodes connected by edges, wherein the edges have an
associated direction defining a dependency between one node and
another. A dependency between edge-connected nodes may be defined
and quantified by a value assigned to the edge.
[0021] The present disclosure is directed to techniques for
predicting arrival times of vehicles at different locations in a
transportation network. It should be noted that the following
examples refer to vehicles such as busses in a public
transportation system by way of example only, and the techniques
and processes as described herein can be applied to additional
modes of transportation including, but not limited to, trains,
boats, trams, airplanes, and other similar vehicles that operate on
a fixed schedule.
[0022] As described herein, historical data related to operation of
a transportation network, specifically data related to vehicle
delay at different stops at different points of time in a day, that
can be used to build a network of dependencies among the vehicle
stops in the transportation network, represented as a dependency
graph. As described herein, an arrival event (AE) refers to an
abstract entity that corresponds to a particular vehicle (e.g., a
bus) arriving at a particular stop at a particular time of the day.
For a specific transportation system, there may be a set of unique
AEs in a day such that an AE would not be observed more than once
in a day. In terms of implementation, an AE can be models as a
tuple, or an ordered list of elements. For example, a tuple for an
AE may include {route ID of the vehicle, trip ID of the vehicle, ID
of the stop, expected time of arrival}. This model of AE may ensure
that each AE uniquely identifies an item in the schedule of the
transportation system without any repetition of AEs. During
observance of the operation of the vehicles in the transportation
system, each AE may be associated with an actual time of arrival
and, as determined based upon the AE's associated expected time of
arrival, a delay. Based upon the measured delays for one or more
AEs, the present disclosure models expected delay for AEs that are
directly dependent upon AEs that precede them in time.
[0023] In the following examples, a simplified public
transportation system is described that includes seven AEs, labeled
sequentially as 1 through 7 in the figures For example, in the
dependency graphs as shown in FIGS. 3-6, each circled number 1
through 7 represent a specific AE. It should be noted, however,
that the AEs as observed and measured herein may not all be on the
same vehicle route within the transportation system. Rather, all
stops, and thus all AEs, within the transportation are measured and
analyzed to determine delay dependency information.
[0024] FIG. 1 illustrates an example of a flow for a particular
process for determining expected delay in a transportation system
according to an embodiment. A system, such as a monitoring and/or
dispatching computer system associated with an operations center
for the transportation network, may receive 102 a listing of
historical operational data. The historical data may represent data
related to the AEs in the transportation system as observed over a
number of days.
[0025] An example of a data structure for storing the historical
information is shown in FIG. 2, where a sample table includes a
listing of AE, a day of the year column indicating on which day the
information was collected, a time of arrival column indicating what
time of the day the information was collected, and a delay column
indicating what the observed delay was for that AE on that
specifically listed day and time. As shown in FIG. 2, the delay may
be a positive or negative number. A positive number may indicate
that the bus was late in arriving to the stop associated with that
AE. Conversely, a negative number may indicate that the vehicle was
early arriving to the stop associated with that AE.
[0026] Based upon the historical data, a dependency graph or model
for the transportation system may be built 104 for each of the AEs.
By performing various calculations and analysis, various parameters
for the construction of the dependency graph may be determined. For
example, dependencies to preceding AEs may be determined fir each
subsequent AE. For example, as shown in FIG. 2, AEs 1, 2 and 3
consistently precede AE 4. Thus, a dependency relationship may be
determined that maps the delay associated with AEs 1, 2 and 3 to
the delay of AE 4.
[0027] Based upon further analysis of the historical information,
the system may build a dependency graph for all AEs in the
transportation system, and fit 106 specific delay dependency
information into the dependency graph. For example, specific edge
values may be assigned to each dependency relationship as shown in
the dependency graph, defining a specific quantifiable relationship
between the AEs.
[0028] To continue the above example, based upon the historical
information it is shown that AEs 1, 2 and 3 consistently precede AE
4 in time. However, as shown in FIG. 3, this does not necessarily
mean that a delay at each of AEs 1, 2 and 3 directly contributes to
the delay at AE 4. Mathematically, a probability distribution of
delay at AE 4 may be conditioned on the observed delays at AEs 1, 2
and 3. Such a distribution may be expressed mathematically as
P(a4|a.sub.1, a.sub.2, a.sub.3), wherein a.sub.1 . . . a.sub.4 are
random variables corresponding to delays of the respective AEs.
[0029] In an embodiment, specific dependency values may be modeled
using a simple linear relation between an outcome AE (e.g., AE 4)
and the dependent AEs. For example, the probabilistic distribution
of a4 may be modeled as a linear combination of a1, a2 and a3, with
a Gaussian noise value corrupting the outcome, represented as:
a.sub.4=m.sub.1a.sub.1+m.sub.2a.sub.2+m.sub.3a.sub.3+.epsilon.
where m.sub.1, m.sub.2 and m.sub.3 represent coefficients of
regression for each respective AE, and .epsilon. corresponds to the
Gaussian white noise.
[0030] When fitting the model to the data, it is desirable to
obtain sparse models where one or more of the coefficients of
regression are zero. A highly sparse model may ensure that only the
most influential dependencies are included in the model, and hence
improves the interpretability of the model. Thus, a lasso
regression may be used to produce a sparse model. A lasso
regression, or a lasso linear regression, is a process that
encourages sparse models of linear fit, where multiple independent
variables are excluded from the mapping. In this example, running a
lasso regression on the historical data may result in m.sub.3=0,
which indicates that there is 0 dependency value between AE 4 and
AE 3, leading to the conclusion that AE 4 is dependent only upon AE
1 and AE 2. Additionally, the lasso regression may also result in
m.sub.1=1 and m.sub.2=2.2, indicating that there is a dependency
value of 1 between AE 4 and AE 1, and a dependency value of 2.2
between AE 4 and AE 2.
[0031] Such a determination and modeling process may be completed
for each AE to determine which preceding AEs impact its delay, and
a complete dependency graph for the transportation system may be
built 104. FIG. 3 illustrates a sample dependency graph showing the
relationships between each of the stops in the transportation
system, and how AEs at each of the stops are directly relate and
dependent upon each other. Each node in the dependency graph
represents a specific AE, and the directed edges in the graph
represent dependency. The arrows on each edge indicate the
direction of flow of the dependency. For example, as shown in FIG.
3, AE 5 is directly dependent upon AE 4, which is directly
dependent upon AEs 1 and 2. Thus, any delay at AEs 1 and 2 will
indirectly contribute to the delay at AE 5.
[0032] Similarly, as the dependency determination is completed for
each AE in the transportation system, a quantitative dependency
value for each dependent relationship may be determined. The
specific delay dependency information can be fitted 106 into the
previously built dependency graph. For example, as shown in FIG. 4,
the specific delay dependency information may be represented as
weights on each edge of the dependency graph. As described above, a
dependency value of 1 was determined for m.sub.1, which represents
the dependency value or strength between AE 1 and AE 4, and is thus
assigned to the arrow between AE 1 and AE 4. Similar values may be
assigned to each dependent relationship within the dependency
graph, resulting in the fitted dependency graph as shown in FIG. 4.
Additionally, as shown in FIG. 4, AE 1 and AE 2 may be considered
parent nodes in the dependency graph as those specific nodes are
not dependent upon any other nodes in the graph. Similarly, AEs 3,
4, 5, 6 and 7 may be considered child nodes as they are dependent
upon at least one other node in the dependency graph.
[0033] It should be noted that the modeling techniques as described
above with regard to building 104 and fitting 106 the dependency
graph are shown by way of example only, and additional modeling
techniques may be used. For example, more complex techniques like
non-linear regression modeling may be used. Similarly, external
variables such as weather information, demographic information, the
day of the week, and other similar variables could be used to
enrich the model.
[0034] Additionally, it should be noted that the dependency graphs
as shown herein are shown as acyclic graphs by way of example only.
However, it is likely that applying the techniques as described
herein would result in an acyclic graph as the graphs are typically
constructed such that any parent node will precede a child node in
time. Such a condition may prevent any cycles in the graph.
[0035] After the dependency graph is built 104 and fitted 106 with
specific delay dependency information, the graph may be used to
determine 108 predictive delays that are likely to occur in the
transportation system. To determine 108 the predictive delays, an
algorithm or other similar process may receive 110 observed delay
at one or more particular AEs which can be used to predict the
delay of AEs that are dependent upon the observed AEs. The
predictive delays at those AEs can then be propagated 112 through
the dependency graph to each additional AE.
[0036] In order to fully propagate the delay information, delay
information for each node that functions solely as a parent (i.e.,
each node that is not dependent upon any other nodes) should be
observed. For example, as shown in FIG. 5, the current delay
information for node 1 (relating to AE 1) and node 2 (relating to
AE 2) should be observed. As shown in FIG. 5, the current delay 502
for AE 1 may be 2 minutes, and the current delay 504 for AE 2 may
be 3 minutes.
[0037] Based upon the relationships and dependency values as
previously determined and included in the dependency graph, these
current delay values may be propagated 112 throughout the graph,
resulting in a set of real-time predictive delay information. For
example, as shown in FIG. 6, the set of real-time predictive delay
information may include a predictive delay 602 of 0.3 minutes for
AE 3 (i.e., the 3 minute delay currently observed at AE 2 times the
dependency value 0.1 between AE 2 and AE 3). Additionally, to
continue the above example, the set of real-time predictive delay
information may include: [0038] A predictive delay 604 of 8.6
minutes for AE 4 (i.e., the 2 minute delay currently observed at AE
1 times the dependency value of 1 between AE 1 and AE 4 plus the 3
minute delay currently observed at AE 2 times the dependency value
of 2.2 between AE 2 and AE 4); [0039] A predictive delay 606 of
10.3 minutes for AE 5 (i.e., the 8.6 minute predictive delay 604
for AE 4 times the dependency value 1.2 between AE 4 and AE 5);
[0040] A predictive delay 608 of 1 minute at AE 6 (i.e., the 10.3
minute predictive delay 606 of AE 5 times the dependency value of
0.1 between AE 5 and AE 6); and [0041] A predictive delay 610 of
26.8 minutes for AE 7 (i.e., the 8.6 minute predictive delay 608 of
AE 4 times the dependency value of 0.6 between AE 4 and AE 7 plus
the 10.3 minute predictive delay 606 of AE 5 times the dependency
value of 2.1 between AE 5 and AE 7).
[0042] The algorithm or other process may return 114 the real-time
predictive delay information to the computer system, which may
output 116 the real-time predictive delay information. For example,
the predictive delay information may be output 116 as an updated
visualization of the current operating status of a transportation
network. As shown in FIG. 7A, a map 702 may include a visual
representation of each stop for a particular transportation
network. Upon determining 108 the real-time predictive delay
information, the system may produce an updated map 704 that
includes both a visual representation of each stop in the
transportation network, but also a predictive delay value for each
upcoming arrival event associated with those stops. Such a
visualization may aid a dispatch operator or a manager of the
transportation system quickly analyze what the predictive delays
look like for the transportation system, and make alterations to
the operation of the transportation system, such as dispatching
additional or larger vehicles, to reduce any anticipated
delays.
[0043] Additionally, the predictive delays may be output 116 in
additional manners. For example, digital display boards at each
stop may be updated to include predictive delay information,
thereby informing passengers of any potential delays they may
experience. Additionally, warnings or other messages may be
automatically sent to a driver indicating that their current timing
information indicates that they may experience a delay at later
stops. The driver may adjust their route accordingly. For example,
the driver may reduce the amount of time they wait at a particular
stop before proceeding to the next stop.
[0044] Additionally, the real-time predictive information can be
used beyond merely providing information related to the current
operational status of a transportation network. For example, the
predictive delay information may be collected, categorized and
analyzed to produce one or more trend reports that can be used to
identify specific areas in the transportation network that are
likely to have predictive delays, as well as specific times of the
day or days of the week when delays are likely to be predicted.
Such trend reports can be used to alter schedules, provide
additional training to drivers and operational personnel, and
perform other actions that may prevent additional delays in the
future.
[0045] The calculations, modeling, analysis and derivations as
described above may be performed and implemented by an operator of
a computing device located at an operations center (e.g., a central
operations center for a public transportation provider). FIG. 8
depicts a block diagram of internal hardware that may be used to
contain or implement the various computer processes and systems as
discussed above. An electrical bus 800 serves as the main
information highway interconnecting the other illustrated
components of the hardware. CPU 805 is the central processing unit
of the system, performing calculations and logic operations
required to execute a program. CPU 805, alone or in conjunction
with one or more of the other elements disclosed in FIG. 8, is a
processing device, computing device or processor as such terms are
used within this disclosure. Read only memory (ROM) 810 and random
access memory (RAM) 815 constitute examples of memory devices.
[0046] A controller 820 interfaces with one or more optional memory
devices 825 to the system bus 800. These memory devices 825 may
include, for example, an external or internal DVD drive, a CD ROM
drive, a hard drive, flash memory, a USB drive or the like. As
indicated previously, these various drives and controllers are
optional devices. Additionally, the memory devices 825 may be
configured to include individual files for storing any software
modules or instructions, auxiliary data, incident data, common
files for storing groups of contingency tables and/or regression
models, or one or more databases for storing the information as
discussed above.
[0047] Program instructions, software or interactive modules for
performing any of the functional steps associated with the
processes as described above may be stored in the ROM 810 and/or
the RAM 815. Optionally, the program instructions may be stored on
a tangible computer readable medium such as a compact disk, a
digital disk, flash memory, a memory card, a USB drive, an optical
disc storage medium, a distributed computer storage platform such
as a cloud-based architecture, and/or other recording medium.
[0048] An optional display interface 830 may permit information
from the bus 800 to be displayed on the display 835 in audio,
visual, graphic or alphanumeric format. Communication with external
devices may occur using various communication ports 840. A
communication port 840 may be attached to a communications network,
such as the Internet or a local area network.
[0049] The hardware may also include an interface 845 which allows
for receipt of data from input devices such as a keyboard 850 or
other input device 855 such as a mouse, a joystick, a touch screen,
a remote control, a pointing device, a video input device and/or an
audio input device.
[0050] It should be noted that a public transportation system is
described above by way of example only. The processes, systems and
methods as taught herein may be applied to any environment where
performance based metrics and information are collected for later
analysis, and provided services may be altered accordingly based
upon the collected information to improve reliability or to reduce
delay.
[0051] Various of the above-disclosed and other features and
functions, or alternatives thereof, may be combined into many other
different systems or applications. Various presently unforeseen or
unanticipated alternatives, modifications, variations or
improvements therein may be subsequently made by those skilled in
the art, each of which is also intended to be encompassed by the
disclosed embodiments.
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