U.S. patent application number 13/861761 was filed with the patent office on 2013-08-29 for inferring demographic compositions of television audiences.
Invention is credited to Diane Lambert, Daniel J. Zigmond.
Application Number | 20130227601 13/861761 |
Document ID | / |
Family ID | 46200833 |
Filed Date | 2013-08-29 |
United States Patent
Application |
20130227601 |
Kind Code |
A1 |
Zigmond; Daniel J. ; et
al. |
August 29, 2013 |
Inferring Demographic Compositions Of Television Audiences
Abstract
Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs
encoded on a computer storage medium, for inferring a demographic
composition of a television audience of a television program. In
one aspect, a method extrapolates television audience demographics
from rated programs to unrated programs by attributing demographics
of rated programs to unrated programs when the rated and unrated
program are related by demographically rated channel tunes.
Inventors: |
Zigmond; Daniel J.; (Menlo
Park, CA) ; Lambert; Diane; (Berkeley Heights,
NJ) |
Family ID: |
46200833 |
Appl. No.: |
13/861761 |
Filed: |
April 12, 2013 |
Related U.S. Patent Documents
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Application
Number |
Filing Date |
Patent Number |
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13277827 |
Oct 20, 2011 |
8468559 |
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13861761 |
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61422561 |
Dec 13, 2010 |
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Current U.S.
Class: |
725/14 |
Current CPC
Class: |
H04H 60/64 20130101;
H04H 60/33 20130101; H04H 60/45 20130101; H04N 21/44213
20130101 |
Class at
Publication: |
725/14 |
International
Class: |
H04N 21/442 20060101
H04N021/442 |
Claims
1. A system, comprising: a data processing apparatus; and software
stored on a computer readable medium comprising instructions
executable by the one or more processing devices and upon such
execution cause the data processing apparatus to perform operations
comprising: identifying a first television program, the first
television program being a television program for which the
demographics of a viewing audience of the first television program
is determined to be not reliably specified in ratings data;
identifying first channel tune records for viewing devices from
viewing device reporting data, each first channel tune record
identifying a television channel change to a broadcast of the first
television program from a broadcast of a respective second
television program, each respective second television program
having ratings data that specifies demographics of a viewing
audience of the respective second television program; identifying
second channel tune records for viewing devices from the viewing
device reporting data, each second channel tune record identifying
a television channel change from a broadcast of the first
television program to a broadcast of a third television program,
the third television program having ratings data that specifies
demographics of a viewing audience of the third television program;
and estimating, from the first and second channel tune records, the
demographics of the viewing audience of the first television
program.
2. The system of claim 1, wherein estimating the demographics of
the viewing audience of the first television program comprises: for
each first channel tune record, determining demographics of the
viewing audience of the respective second television program from
the ratings data; for each second channel tune record, determining
demographics of the viewing audience of the respective third
television program from the ratings data; attributing the
demographics determined for each channel tune record to the first
television program; and estimating the demographics of the viewing
audience of the first television program from the demographics
attributed to the first television program.
3. The system of claim 2, wherein estimating the demographics of
the viewing audience of the first television program from the
demographics attributed to the first television program comprises:
aggregating the demographics attributed from each channel tune; and
determining averaged demographics from the aggregated
demographics.
4. The system of claim 2, wherein the ratings data are divided into
two or more intervals that occur during broadcast times of the
television programs; and determining demographics of the viewing
audience of the respective first television program from the
ratings data comprises for each channel tune record of each
respective first program: a time at which the identified channel
tune occurred; and determining demographics of the viewing audience
from the ratings data of the interval within which the time
occurred.
5. The system of claim 2, wherein attributing the demographics
determined for each channel tune record to the first television
program comprises: for each channel tune record, determining a
confidence measure for the demographics determined for the channel
tune record; and for each channel tune record, only attributing the
demographics determined for the channel tune record to the first
television program when the confidence measure for the demographics
is determined to meet a threshold confidence measure.
6. The system of claim 5, wherein: the threshold confidence measure
is a minimum count number; and determining a confidence measure for
the demographics determined for each channel tune record comprises:
determining, for each respective second television program
identified in first channel tune records, a number of channel tune
records identifying a channel tune between the broadcast of the
respective second television program and the broadcast of the first
television program; determining, for each respective third
television program identified in second channel tune records, a
number of channel tune records identifying a channel tune between
the broadcast of the respective third television program and the
broadcast of the first television program; and determining the
confidence measure for the demographics determined for each channel
tune record based on the number of channel tune records determined
for the respective television programs.
7. The system of claim 5, wherein: determining a confidence measure
for the demographics determined for each channel tune record
comprises: aggregating the demographics determined for each channel
tune record; and for each channel tune record, determining a
similarity metric that measures the similarity of the demographics
for the channel tune record to the aggregated channel tune records;
the threshold confidence measure is a minimum similarity threshold;
and the confidence measure for the demographics of a channel tune
record is determined to meet the threshold confidence measure when
the similarity metric for the channel tune record is equal to or
greater than the minimum similarity threshold.
8. A computer-implemented method performed by a data processing
apparatus, the method comprising: identifying a first television
program, the first television program being a television program
for which the demographics of a viewing audience of the first
television program is determined to be not reliably specified in
ratings data; identifying first channel tune records for viewing
devices from viewing device reporting data, each first channel tune
record identifying a television channel change to a broadcast of
the first television program from a broadcast of a respective
second television program, each respective second television
program having ratings data that specifies demographics of a
viewing audience of the respective second television program;
identifying second channel tune records for viewing devices from
the viewing device reporting data, each second channel tune record
identifying a television channel change from a broadcast of the
first television program to a broadcast of a third television
program, the third television program having ratings data that
specifies demographics of a viewing audience of the third
television program; and estimating, from the first and second
channel tune records, the demographics of the viewing audience of
the first television program.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein estimating the demographics of
the viewing audience of the first television program comprises: for
each first channel tune record, determining demographics of the
viewing audience of the respective second television program from
the ratings data; for each second channel tune record, determining
demographics of the viewing audience of the respective third
television program from the ratings data; attributing the
demographics determined for each channel tune record to the first
television program; and estimating the demographics of the viewing
audience of the first television program from the demographics
attributed to the first television program.
10. The method of claim 9, wherein estimating the demographics of
the viewing audience of the first television program from the
demographics attributed to the first television program comprises:
aggregating the demographics attributed from each channel tune; and
determining averaged demographics from the aggregated
demographics.
11. The method of claim 9, wherein the ratings data are divided
into two or more intervals that occur during broadcast times of the
television programs; and determining demographics of the viewing
audience of the respective first television program from the
ratings data comprises for each channel tune record of each
respective first program: a time at which the identified channel
tune occurred; and determining demographics of the viewing audience
from the ratings data of the interval within which the time
occurred.
12. The method of claim 9, wherein attributing the demographics
determined for each channel tune record to the first television
program comprises: for each channel tune record, determining a
confidence measure for the demographics determined for the channel
tune record; and for each channel tune record, only attributing the
demographics determined for the channel tune record to the first
television program when the confidence measure for the demographics
is determined to meet a threshold confidence measure.
13. The method of claim 12, wherein: the threshold confidence
measure is a minimum count number; and determining a confidence
measure for the demographics determined for each channel tune
record comprises: determining, for each respective second
television program identified in first channel tune records, a
number of channel tune records identifying a channel tune between
the broadcast of the respective second television program and the
broadcast of the first television program; determining, for each
respective third television program identified in second channel
tune records, a number of channel tune records identifying a
channel tune between the broadcast of the respective third
television program and the broadcast of the first television
program; and determining the confidence measure for the
demographics determined for each channel tune record based on the
number of channel tune records determined for the respective
television programs.
14. The method of claim 12, wherein: determining a confidence
measure for the demographics determined for each channel tune
record comprises: aggregating the demographics determined for each
channel tune record; and for each channel tune record, determining
a similarity metric that measures the similarity of the
demographics for the channel tune record to the aggregated channel
tune records; the threshold confidence measure is a minimum
similarity threshold; and the confidence measure for the
demographics of a channel tune record is determined to meet the
threshold confidence measure when the similarity metric for the
channel tune record is equal to or greater than the minimum
similarity threshold.
15. A computer readable storage device comprising instructions
that, when executed by a data processing apparatus, cause the data
processing apparatus to perform operations comprising: identifying
a first television program, the first television program being a
television program for which the demographics of a viewing audience
of the first television program is determined to be not reliably
specified in ratings data; identifying first channel tune records
for viewing devices from viewing device reporting data, each first
channel tune record identifying a television channel change to a
broadcast of the first television program from a broadcast of a
respective second television program, each respective second
television program having ratings data that specifies demographics
of a viewing audience of the respective second television program;
identifying second channel tune records for viewing devices from
the viewing device reporting data, each second channel tune record
identifying a television channel change from a broadcast of the
first television program to a broadcast of a third television
program, the third television program having ratings data that
specifies demographics of a viewing audience of the third
television program; and estimating, from the first and second
channel tune records, the demographics of the viewing audience of
the first television program.
16. The computer readable storage device of claim 15, wherein
estimating the demographics of the viewing audience of the first
television program comprises: for each first channel tune record,
determining demographics of the viewing audience of the respective
second television program from the ratings data; for each second
channel tune record, determining demographics of the viewing
audience of the respective third television program from the
ratings data; attributing the demographics determined for each
channel tune record to the first television program; and estimating
the demographics of the viewing audience of the first television
program from the demographics attributed to the first television
program.
17. The computer readable storage device of claim 16, wherein
estimating the demographics of the viewing audience of the first
television program from the demographics attributed to the first
television program comprises: aggregating the demographics
attributed from each channel tune; and determining averaged
demographics from the aggregated demographics.
18. The computer readable storage device of claim 16, wherein the
ratings data are divided into two or more intervals that occur
during broadcast times of the television programs; and determining
demographics of the viewing audience of the respective first
television program from the ratings data comprises for each channel
tune record of each respective first program: a time at which the
identified channel tune occurred; and determining demographics of
the viewing audience from the ratings data of the interval within
which the time occurred.
19. The computer readable storage device of claim 16, wherein
attributing the demographics determined for each channel tune
record to the first television program comprises: for each channel
tune record, determining a confidence measure for the demographics
determined for the channel tune record; and for each channel tune
record, only attributing the demographics determined for the
channel tune record to the first television program when the
confidence measure for the demographics is determined to meet a
threshold confidence measure.
20. The computer readable storage device of claim 19, wherein: the
threshold confidence measure is a minimum count number; and
determining a confidence measure for the demographics determined
for each channel tune record comprises: determining, for each
respective second television program identified in first channel
tune records, a number of channel tune records identifying a
channel tune between the broadcast of the respective second
television program and the broadcast of the first television
program; determining, for each respective third television program
identified in second channel tune records, a number of channel tune
records identifying a channel tune between the broadcast of the
respective third television program and the broadcast of the first
television program; and determining the confidence measure for the
demographics determined for each channel tune record based on the
number of channel tune records determined for the respective
television programs.
Description
CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS
[0001] This application is a continuation application of, and
claims priority to, U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/277,827,
entitled Inferring Demographic Compositions Of Television
Audiences, which was filed on Oct. 20, 2011, which claims the
benefit under 35 U.S.C. .sctn.119(e) of U.S. Application No.
61/422,561, titled "Inferring Demographic Compositions Of
Television Audiences," and filed on Dec. 13, 2010. The disclosures
of the foregoing applications are incorporated herein by reference
in their entirety.
BACKGROUND
[0002] This disclosure relates to determining demographics of a
program audience.
[0003] Advertisers often set exposure goals for advertising
campaigns for advertising content, e.g., television ads, and devise
strategies to achieve these goals, e.g., when to air the
advertising campaign content. Accordingly, advertisers are very
interested in knowing the number of viewers in program audiences
and the demographics of program audiences, e.g., the percentage of
male and female viewers for a given program, and the ages of the
male and female viewers.
[0004] The number of viewers of a television program can be
determined in a variety of ways. For example, viewing device logs,
such as set top box logs that include channel tune records, can be
analyzed to determine the number of set top box devices tuned to
particular television programs at particular times. Behavioral
algorithms can also be applied to discount view counts that are
likely false, e.g., view counts that occur late at night and
multiple hours after a last channel tune are discounted as it is
likely that a viewer has fallen asleep. Panels or surveys can also
be used to determine the number of viewers.
[0005] Demographic information is typically gathered using panels
or surveys. However, it is impractical to sample enough people to
determine the audience composition for every particular television
program. Accordingly, while ratings information in terms of the
number of viewers may be available for many television programs,
the programs are nevertheless unrated with respect to
demographics.
SUMMARY
[0006] In general, the subject matter of this specification relates
to systems and methods for inferring a demographic composition of a
television audience of a television program.
[0007] In general, one innovative aspect of the subject matter
described in this specification can be embodied in methods that
include the actions of accessing ratings data describing, for each
of a plurality of first television programs, demographics of a
viewing audience of the first television program; identifying
demographically rated channel tune records, each of the
demographically rated channel tune records identifying a channel
tune between a broadcast of a respective first television program
and a broadcast of a second television program; and estimating,
from the demographically rated channel tune records, the
demographics of the viewing audience of the second television
program. Other embodiments of this aspect include corresponding
systems, apparatus, and computer programs, configured to perform
the actions of the methods, encoded on computer storage
devices.
[0008] Another innovative aspect of the subject matter described in
this specification can be embodied in methods that include the
actions of identifying a first television program, the first
television program being a television program for which the
demographics of a viewing audience of the first television program
is determined to be not reliably specified in ratings data;
accessing ratings data describing, for each of a plurality of
second television programs and third television programs,
demographics of a viewing audience of each second television
program and each third television program; identifying first
channel tune records for viewing devices from viewing device
reporting data, each first channel tune record identifying a
television channel change to a first channel from a respective
second channel, each television channel change being between a
broadcast of a respective second television program on the
respective second channel and a broadcast of the first television
program on the first television channel; identifying second channel
tune records for viewing devices from the viewing device reporting
data, each second channel tune record identifying a television
channel change from the first television channel to a respective
third channel, each television channel change being between the
broadcast of the first television program on the first television
channel and by a broadcast of a respective third television program
on a respective third channel; and estimating, from the first and
second channel tune records, the demographics of the viewing
audience of the first television program. Other embodiments of this
aspect include corresponding systems, apparatus, and computer
programs, configured to perform the actions of the methods, encoded
on computer storage devices.
[0009] Particular embodiments of the subject matter described in
this specification can be implemented so as to realize one or more
of the following advantages. Audience demographics can be
determined for demographically unrated television programs by
leveraging off the demographic rating information of other
television programs by an automated process, which reduces the cost
associated with determining demographics of demographically unrated
television programs.
[0010] The details of one or more embodiments of the subject matter
described in this specification are set forth in the accompanying
drawings and the description below. Other features, aspects, and
advantages of the subject matter will become apparent from the
description, the drawings, and the claims.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0011] FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an example television
advertisement system.
[0012] FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating demographically rated
tune-ins to an unrated television program and demographically rated
tune-outs from the unrated television program.
[0013] FIG. 3 is a flow diagram of an example process for
determining demographics for an unrated television program.
[0014] FIG. 4 is a flow diagram of an example process for
determining whether to attribute demographics for a channel tune
record to an unrated program.
[0015] FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a programmable processing
system.
[0016] Like reference numbers and designations in the various
drawings indicate like elements.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
.sctn.1.0 Overview
[0017] FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an example television
advertisement system 100. Television advertisement system 100
delivers advertising campaign content, e.g., television
ads/creatives, to an advertising population to facilitate operator
monetization of programming and quantification of content delivery
to target markets. The advertisement can be shown separately from a
television program in the form of a television commercial, or can
be shown concurrently with a television program in the form of an
overlay or text stream on a portion of a television display.
[0018] The television advertisement system 100 is typically
implemented in a plurality of computer servers, and can provide and
receive data over a network. Example networks include local area
networks (LANs), wide area networks (WANs), telephonic networks,
and wireless networks. Additionally, the television advertisement
system 100 can, for example, communicate over several different
types of networks, e.g., the Internet, a satellite network, and a
telephonic network.
[0019] In general, the television advertisement system 100 receives
television advertisements and campaign data from advertisers 140.
An advertiser is entity that provides television advertisements,
such as a commercial entity that sells products or services, an
advertising agency, or a person. The television advertisement
system 100 facilitates the provisioning of television
advertisements to television providers 120. A television provider
is an entity that facilitates the delivery of a television
broadcast (e.g., the programming of a television network) to
viewers, such as cable provider, a digital satellite provider, a
streaming media provider, or some other media provider.
[0020] The television advertisement system 100 can also obtain
viewing information related to viewing devices 130. Example viewing
devices 130 include set top boxes, digital video recorders and
tuners, and other television processing devices that facilitate the
viewing of the television signal on a television device. In some
implementations, logs related to viewing device 130 activity, e.g.,
set top box logs, can be anonymized to remove personal information
related to viewing activities by the television advertising system
or prior to being provided to the television advertisement system
100. In some implementations, users of the set top box devices may
opt out of the log collection process so that their viewing habits
are not disclosed to any third party.
[0021] The viewing information can be provided by the television
providers 120, or can be provided by third parties. In the example
system 100 of FIG. 1, the viewing information is provided in the
form of set top logs from the television providers 120.
[0022] The system 100 can also receive data from a ratings service
150. A ratings service 150 is an entity that gathers ratings
information, including demographic information, from households.
The ratings service 150 implements an audience measurement system
to determine the audience size and composition (demographics) of
television programming. Example audience measurement systems
include viewer diaries, a system in which a target audience records
it viewing history and provides the viewing history to the ratings
service 150. Another example involves the use of set to box meters
that gather the viewing history of a household and transmit the
history data to the service 150 on a period basis (e.g., daily).
Other audience measurement systems can also be used to generate
ratings information that includes demographic data.
[0023] The television advertisement system 100 also includes one or
more data stores to store set top log data, ratings data,
television advertisements and associated advertisement data. In
some implementations, the television advertisement system 100
includes a television advertisement data store 102, a programming
data store 104, a device log data store 106, and a ratings data
store 108.
[0024] The television advertisement data store 102 stores data
defining television advertisements that can be broadcast or aired
during an advertisement spot. Example television advertisements
include video advertisements, banner advertisements, overlay
advertisements, etc. The advertisement data store 102 also includes
advertising campaign information for multiple advertisers. An
advertising campaign describes an ad or a group of related ads, and
conditions for airing the advertisement.
[0025] The programming data store 104 stores programming schedules
and advertisement avails. The advertisement distribution engine 110
uses the programming schedules and advertisement avails to auction
and schedule advertisements.
[0026] The device log data store 106 can include, for example, data
logs/television reporting data from viewing devices 130, e.g., set
top boxes, satellite receivers, etc. The log data store 106 can
store reporting data that include channel identifiers, e.g.,
channel tune records, identifying channels for programming that was
presented on televisions 132 by use of the viewing devices 130,
such as may occur when the viewing device 130 is processing video
data to record and/or display. The log data store 106 can also
store reporting data that include device time data identifying
times and/or durations at which (or with which) a viewing device
was used to present the programming of the channels; and device
identifiers identifying the viewing devices 130. The log data can
be anonymized to protect individual users, through, for example,
removal of personally identifying information, demographic
aggregation of data, anonymization of user identifiers and/or
device identifiers, and the like.
[0027] The ratings data 108 stores ratings data for programs. For
each program, the ratings data describes the demographics of a
viewing audience of the program. For many programs, the ratings
data 108 are received from the ratings service. However, as
described above, it is often impractical for the ratings service
150 to sample enough people to determine the audience composition
for every particular television program. Accordingly, while ratings
information in terms of the number of viewers may be available for
many television programs, many of the programs are nevertheless
unrated with respect to demographics. As will be described in more
detail below, a demographic estimation engine 114 can determine a
demographic composition of a television audience of an unrated
television program from the demographics of one or more rated
television programs.
[0028] In addition to the demographic estimation engine 114, the
television advertisement system 100 also includes an advertisement
distribution engine 110 and a reporting engine 112. The
advertisement distribution engine 110 is configured to provide
approved advertisements to the television provider 120. In some
implementations, the advertisements are provided to the television
provider 120 in advance of airing the advertisements. In some
implementations, after receiving a request for any new
advertisements to be downloaded for airing by the provider 120, the
television advertisement system 100 labels the download with a
particular ID that can be used later to identify the advertisement
and the distribution engine 110 can deliver the advertisement to
the appropriate provider 120.
[0029] The reporting engine 112 can, for example, receive
advertisement reporting information from the provider 120 and
determine whether the selected television advertisement aired based
on the advertisement report information (an advertisement may not
air due to a programming irregularity, e.g., a sporting event going
beyond a scheduled broadcast, an interruption to scheduled
programming due to breaking news), and generate reports from the
reporting information. The reports can include impressions and
demographics of the viewing audiences.
[0030] The reporting engine 112 access the advertising data 102,
programming data 104, device log data 106 and the ratings data 108
and, using this information, creates associations between the
device identifiers, the channel identifiers and the device time
data to identify the time blocks in which each viewing device 130
was used to present programming on the channel corresponding to the
time block, and the duration each viewing device was used to
present the programming for the channel associated with that time
block.
[0031] The reporting engine 112 determines the number of
impressions for each airing of an advertisement. The impressions
can, for example, be measured statistically. An impression can be a
household impression, e.g., the airing of an advertisement in
household and independent of the number of televisions in a
household. If the advertisement is aired on a viewing device in the
household, one household impression can be recorded. In other
implementations, impressions can be measured by an analysis of
activity logs of the viewing devices 130. For example, a household
may have three viewing devices 130, and at a given time two of the
devices may be tuned to a first channel and the third device may be
tuned to a second channel. If a first commercial airs on the first
channel and a second commercial airs on the second channel during a
time that the logs for the viewing devices 130 indicated that the
viewing devices are tuned to the channels, impressions can be
generated for each viewing device.
.sctn.2.0 Estimating Demographics for Demographically Unrated
Programs
[0032] For television programs that have been rating by the ratings
service 150, the system 100 can determine ratings information from
the ratings data 108 received the rating service 150. Such
information can include the number of viewers in the viewing
audience of the television programs, and the demographic
composition of the viewing audience for each television program.
However, many the television programs do not have demographic
rating information available for them. This can be due to an
insufficient number of viewers that watched a television program
for the rating service 150 to determine a demographic composition
with the required level of certainty. For example, if the rating
service 150 receives information from 10,000 panelist, and only 75
panelists watched a particular television program, the sample set
of 75 may be too small to extrapolate the demographic composition
to a larger audience. Accordingly, for television programs for
which the rating service 150 did provide demographic rating
information with an acceptable level of certainty, the demographic
estimation engine 114 can estimate demographic composition of a
television audience for an unrated television program from tune-ins
to the unrated television program from rated television programs,
and from tune-outs to rated television programs from the unrated
television program.
[0033] The process by which the demographic estimation engine 114
determines the demographic composition of television audiences for
unrated programs is better understood with reference to FIG. 2,
which is a block diagram illustrating demographically rated
tune-ins to an unrated television program and demographically rated
tune-outs from the unrated television program.
[0034] The demographic estimating engine 114 identifies television
programs for which the demographics of a viewing audience are not
reliably specified in ratings data 108. For example, for certain
programs the ratings data 108 received from the ratings service 150
may not include demographic data, or may include demographic data
that is determined to be unreliable, e.g., demographic data derived
from a very small sample set. As shown in FIG. 2, for example, the
demographic estimation engine 114 identifies an unrated program
202.
[0035] The demographic estimation engine 114, however, has access
to demographics of viewing audiences of numerous other television
programs for which demographic data are available. For example, the
television programs 204 and 206 are other television programs for
which demographic ratings data related to male and female
viewership are available.
[0036] Once these television programs 202, 204, and 206 are
identified, the demographic estimation engine 114 searches for
channel tune records of viewing devices that indicate the viewing
devices changed channels (and thus television programs) from the
rated programs to the unrated program, or from the unrated program
to rated programs. These records each capture a channel change from
either a rated program 200 program, or from an unrated program to
rated program, i.e., a channel change between an unrated program
and a rated program. The channel change between two programs can be
from the first program to the second program, or from the second
program to the first program. The changing of a channel from a
rated program to an unrated program is referred to as a
"demographically rated tune-in," (DRTI) and the changing of the
channel from an unrated program to a rated program is referred to
as a "demographically rated tune-out" (DRTO). From these
demographically rated channel tune records, the demographic
estimation engine 114 estimates the demographics of the viewing
audience of the unrated television program.
[0037] For example, with respect to FIG. 2, the demographic
estimation engine 114 determines demographics of the viewing
audience of the respective television program 204 from the ratings
data 108, and determines the demographics of the viewing audience
of the respective television program 206 from the ratings data 108.
These demographics are then attributed to the unrated television
program 202, and thus to each demographically rated channel tune,
to estimate the demographics of the viewing audience of the first
television program 202. In some implementations, the demographic
estimation engine 114 aggregates the demographics attributed from
each channel tune and determines averaged demographics from the
aggregated demographics.
[0038] For example, the demographics of each of the television
programs 204 and 206 with respect to male and female viewership are
shown for each program in FIG. 2. These demographics are treated as
probabilities that the viewer is either a male or female. The
probabilities are aggregated and then averages of all of the
incoming demographically rated tune-ins and all the outgoing
demographically rated tune-outs are determined. Assuming there is
only four demographically rated tune-ins and for demographically
rated tune-outs a shown in FIG. 2 for the unrated program 202, the
estimated demographics for the unrated programs are:
(0.5+0.6+0.3+0.4+0.6+0.3+0.5+0.2)/8=42.5% Estimated Male
Audience:
(0.4+0.4+0.7+0.6+0.4+0.7+0.5+0.80)/8=57.5% Estimated Female
Audience:
[0039] For illustrative purposes only, only one demographically
rated tune-in and one demographically rated tune-out is shown for
each respective program 204 and 206. However, in practice the
number of demographically rated tune-ins and demographically rated
tune-outs for each rated program relative to the unrated program
can number in the hundreds to the thousands. More generally, a
particular demographic D is determined according to the
formula:
D = i = 1 m D DRTI ( i ) + k = 1 n D DRTO ( k ) m + n
##EQU00001##
where:
[0040] D.sub.DRTII(i) is a contribution of the particular
demographic D for the i.sup.th demographically rated tune-in;
[0041] D.sub.DRTO(k) is a contribution of the particular
demographic D for the k.sup.th demographically rated tune-out;
[0042] m is the number of demographically rated tune-ins for the
particular demographic; and
[0043] n is the number of demographically rated tune-outs for the
particular demographic.
[0044] In some implementations, only the demographically rated
tune-ins are used to estimate the audience demographics.
Alternatively, in some implementations, only the demographically
rated tune-outs are used to estimate the audience demographics.
[0045] Additionally, the ratings information shown in FIG. 2 for
the rated programs 204 and 206 are for an entire program. In some
implementations, the ratings data are divided into two or more
intervals that occur during broadcast times of the television
programs (e.g., 15 minute intervals). The demographic estimation
engine 114 determines, for each channel tune record of each
respective television program 204 and 206, a time at which the
identified channel tune occurred. Using the time information, the
demographic estimation engine 114 determines the demographics of
the viewing audience from the ratings data of the interval within
which the time occurred. Thus, for example, a particular rated
television program that has multiple demographically rated channel
tunes for an unrated program may contribute different demographics
to the unrated program, depending on the time that the channel tune
occurred. For example, assume a rated television program is a
half-hour program, and the demographics in the first 15 minute
interval are 50% male, and 50% female, while the demographics in
the second 15 minute interval are 48% male, and 52% female.
Demographically rated channel tunes occurring in the first 15
minute interval will be assigned a probability of 50% male and 50%
female, while demographically rated channel tunes occurring in the
second 15 minute interval will be assigned a probability of 48%
male, and 52% female.
[0046] Once the demographic compositions of unrated programs are
estimated, they are stored in the ratings data 108. In some
implementations, the demographic estimation engine 114 cannot use
estimated ratings data 108 to further estimate demographics of
other unrated programs. For example, after the demographic
composition is determined for the unrated program 202 and stored in
the ratings data 108, a channel tune from the unrated program 202
to another unrated program 210 is not considered a demographically
rated tune in. In other implementations, the channel tune from the
unrated program 202 to another unrated program 210 can be
considered a demographically rated channel tune after the estimated
demographic data for the unrated program 202 are stored in the
ratings data 108.
[0047] FIG. 3 is a flow diagram of an example process 300 for
determining demographics for an unrated television program. The
process 300 can be implemented in the demographic estimation engine
114.
[0048] The process 300 identifies a first television program (310).
The first television program is an unrated television program. For
example, the demographic estimation engine 114 identifies the
television program 202, which is an unrated program.
[0049] The process 300 accesses ratings data for demographically
rated television programs (320). For example, the demographic
estimation engine 114 accesses ratings data 108 provided by rating
service 150. Using the ratings data, the process 300 identifies
second television programs on second channels (322), and identifies
third television programs on third channels (324). For example, the
demographic estimation engine 114 identifies second television
programs 204, and identifies third television programs 206, as
shown in FIG. 2.
[0050] The process 300 identifies first channel tune records
identifying television channel changes determined to be captured by
broadcasts of respective second television programs and by a
broadcast of the first television program (330). For example, the
demographic estimation engine 114 identifies demographically rated
channel tune records for the demographically rated tune-ins from
the television programs 204 to the television program 202.
[0051] The process 300 identifies second channel tune records
identifying television channel changes determined to be captured by
broadcasts of respective third television programs and by a
broadcast of the first television program (340). For example, the
demographic estimation engine 114 identifies demographically rated
channel tune records for the demographically rated tune-outs from
the television program 202 to the television programs 206.
[0052] The process 300 estimates, from the first and second channel
tune records, the demographics of the viewing audience of the first
television program (350). For example, the demographic estimation
engine 114 and estimates the demographics of the unrated program
202 from the demographically rated channel tune records identified
in step 340 above.
.sctn.3.0 Filtering Demographics from Attribution
[0053] FIG. 4 is a flow diagram of an example process 400 for
determining whether to attribute demographics for a channel tune
record to an unrated program. The process 400 can be performed by
the demographic estimation engine 114.
[0054] There may be situations where a demographically rated
channel tune record may not accurately represent an estimation of
an audience member. This is because audiences may not be consistent
between different programs. Accordingly, the demographics
associated with any particular demographically rated channel tune
record can be compared to the overall demographics of all of the
demographically rated channel tune records to determine whether the
demographics are similar enough to not constitute noise.
[0055] For example, a child within a household may be watching a
children's television program. The children's television program
has associated demographics with a very young viewing audience. An
adult within the household may change the channel to another
program that has, in fact, a mature demographic, for example, a
financial analysis program. Assuming the children's television
program is unrated with respect to demographics, the process 300
above would attribute the demographics of the financial analysis
program to the children's television program.
[0056] It is very likely, however, that a large majority of
demographically rated tune-ins and demographically rated tune-outs
for the unrated children's television program come from rated
children's television programs. Accordingly, the demographics
associated with the news program are likely to be so dissimilar
from the aggregate demographics of the demographically rated
tune-ins and tune outs for the unrated children's television
program that they can be effectively discounted. These
dissimilarities can be identified based on the relative number of
demographically rated channel tunes between respective programs,
and/or by the similarity of the demographics of a particular
channel tune record to the demographics of all other channel tune
records.
[0057] For each channel tune record, the process 400 determines a
confidence measure for the demographics determined from the channel
tune record (410). For example, in some implementations, the
demographic estimation engine 114 determines, for each respective
first television program, a number of channel tune records
identifying a channel tune determined to be captured by the
broadcast of the respective first television program and the
broadcast of the second television program. Alternatively, the
demographic estimation engine 114 aggregates the demographics
determined for all demographically rated channel tune records and,
for each channel tune record, determines a similarity metric that
measures the similarity of the demographics for the channel tune
record to the demographics of the aggregated channel tune
records.
[0058] For each channel tune record, the process 400 only
attributes the demographics determined for the channel tune record
to the first television program when the confidence measure for the
demographics is determined to meet a threshold confidence measure.
For example, in the implementations in which the demographic
estimation engine 114 determines a number of channel tune records
is a confidence measure, the threshold confidence measure is a
minimum count number, and the confidence measure for the
demographics of a channel tune record is determined to meet
threshold confidence measure when the number of channel tune
records for the respective first television program exceeds the
minimum count number. Likewise, in the implementations in which the
demographic estimation engine 114 determines a similarity metric,
the threshold confidence measure is a minimum similarity threshold,
and thee confidence measure for the demographics of a channel tune
record is determined to meet threshold confidence measure when the
similarity metric for the channel tune record is equal to or
greater than the minimum similarity threshold.
[0059] Other filtering techniques can also be used. For example,
demographically rated tune-ins and tune-outs that are indicative of
"channel surfing" can be filtered from attribution. Consider the
case of a viewer changing from channel 45 to 57 by incrementing
quickly through channels 46-54. At that time, the programming on
channels 45 and 57 may have an adult demographic, while the
programming on channels 51-54 may have a children's demographic.
Additionally, some of the programs on the channels may be
demographically rated by the ratings service 150, while others may
not be demographically rated. Thus, attributing various
demographics for each rated tune-in and tune-out may results in an
inaccurate smearing of the demographics. Accordingly, a minimum
dwell time that measure the amount of time a viewing device 130 was
tuned to a particular channel can be required before the
demographics of rated tune-ins and tune-outs are attributed to
unrated programs. The estimation engine 114 determines the minimum
dwell time from time tags present in the channel tune records.
[0060] In some implementations, the minimum dwell time can be
required for both programs to which a tune-in and tune-out relates.
For example, with respect to FIG. 2, for each demographically rated
tune-in, each program 204 must be presented on the viewing device
130 for at least the minimum dwell time before the channel change
(e.g., two minutes), and the unrated program 202 must be
presentment for at least the minimum dwell time after the channel
change (e.g., two minutes). If these conditions are met, then the
demographics for the demographically rated tune-in can be
attributed to the unrated program 202. The same filtering technique
can be required for demographically related tune-outs.
[0061] This filtering process can also be used to preclude such
records from being processed by the process 300 prior to the
execution of the process 300.
.sctn. 4.0 Additional Implementation Details
[0062] Embodiments of the subject matter and the operations
described in this specification can be implemented in digital
electronic circuitry, or in computer software, firmware, or
hardware, including the structures disclosed in this specification
and their structural equivalents, or in combinations of one or more
of them. Embodiments of the subject matter described in this
specification can be implemented as one or more computer programs,
i.e., one or more modules of computer program instructions, encoded
on computer storage medium for execution by, or to control the
operation of, data processing apparatus. Alternatively or in
addition, the program instructions can be encoded on an
artificially generated propagated signal, e.g., a machine-generated
electrical, optical, or electromagnetic signal, that is generated
to encode information for transmission to suitable receiver
apparatus for execution by a data processing apparatus. A computer
storage medium can be, or be included in, a computer-readable
storage device, a computer-readable storage substrate, a random or
serial access memory array or device, or a combination of one or
more of them. Moreover, while a computer storage medium is not a
propagated signal, a computer storage medium can be a source or
destination of computer program instructions encoded in an
artificially generated propagated signal. The computer storage
medium can also be, or be included in, one or more separate
physical components or media (e.g., multiple CDs, disks, or other
storage devices).
[0063] The operations described in this specification can be
implemented as operations performed by a data processing apparatus
on data stored on one or more computer-readable storage devices or
received from other sources.
[0064] The term "data processing apparatus" encompasses all kinds
of apparatus, devices, and machines for processing data, including
by way of example a programmable processor, a computer, a system on
a chip, or multiple ones, or combinations, of the foregoing The
apparatus can include special purpose logic circuitry, e.g., an
FPGA (field programmable gate array) or an ASIC (application
specific integrated circuit). The apparatus can also include, in
addition to hardware, code that creates an execution environment
for the computer program in question, e.g., code that constitutes
processor firmware, a protocol stack, a database management system,
an operating system, a cross-platform runtime environment, a
virtual machine, or a combination of one or more of them. The
apparatus and execution environment can realize various different
computing model infrastructures, such as web services, distributed
computing and grid computing infrastructures.
[0065] A computer program (also known as a program, software,
software application, script, or code) can be written in any form
of programming language, including compiled or interpreted
languages, declarative or procedural languages, and it can be
deployed in any form, including as a stand alone program or as a
module, component, subroutine, object, or other unit suitable for
use in a computing environment. A computer program may, but need
not, correspond to a file in a file system. A program can be stored
in a portion of a file that holds other programs or data (e.g., one
or more scripts stored in a markup language document), in a single
file dedicated to the program in question, or in multiple
coordinated files (e.g., files that store one or more modules, sub
programs, or portions of code). A computer program can be deployed
to be executed on one computer or on multiple computers that are
located at one site or distributed across multiple sites and
interconnected by a communication network.
[0066] The processes and logic flows described in this
specification can be performed by one or more programmable
processors executing one or more computer programs to perform
actions by operating on input data and generating output.
Processors suitable for the execution of a computer program
include, by way of example, both general and special purpose
microprocessors, and any one or more processors of any kind of
digital computer. Generally, a processor will receive instructions
and data from a read only memory or a random access memory or both.
The essential elements of a computer are a processor for performing
actions in accordance with instructions and one or more memory
devices for storing instructions and data. Generally, a computer
will also include, or be operatively coupled to receive data from
or transfer data to, or both, one or more mass storage devices for
storing data, e.g., magnetic, magneto optical disks, or optical
disks. However, a computer need not have such devices. Devices
suitable for storing computer program instructions and data include
all forms of non volatile memory, media and memory devices,
including by way of example semiconductor memory devices, e.g.,
EPROM, EEPROM, and flash memory devices; magnetic disks, e.g.,
internal hard disks or removable disks; magneto optical disks; and
CD ROM and DVD-ROM disks. The processor and the memory can be
supplemented by, or incorporated in, special purpose logic
circuitry.
[0067] Embodiments of the subject matter described in this
specification can be implemented in a computing system that
includes a back end component, e.g., as a data server, or that
includes a middleware component, e.g., an application server, or
that includes a front end component, e.g., a client computer having
a graphical user interface or a Web browser through which a user
can interact with an implementation of the subject matter described
in this specification, or any combination of one or more such back
end, middleware, or front end components. The components of the
system can be interconnected by any form or medium of digital data
communication, e.g., a communication network. Examples of
communication networks include a local area network ("LAN") and a
wide area network ("WAN"), an inter-network (e.g., the Internet),
and peer-to-peer networks (e.g., ad hoc peer-to-peer networks).
[0068] The computing system can include clients and servers. A
client and server are generally remote from each other and
typically interact through a communication network. The
relationship of client and server arises by virtue of computer
programs running on the respective computers and having a
client-server relationship to each other. In some embodiments, a
server transmits data (e.g., an HTML page) to a client device
(e.g., for purposes of displaying data to and receiving user input
from a user interacting with the client device). Data generated at
the client device (e.g., a result of the user interaction) can be
received from the client device at the server. An example of one
such type of computer is shown in FIG. 5, which shows a block
diagram of a programmable processing system (system). The system
500 that can be utilized to implement the systems and methods
described herein. The architecture of the system 500 can, for
example, be used to implement a computer client, a computer server,
or some other computer device.
[0069] The system 500 includes a processor 510, a memory 520, a
storage device 530, and an input/output device 540. Each of the
components 510, 520, 530, and 540 can, for example, be
interconnected using a system bus 550. The processor 510 is capable
of processing instructions for execution within the system 500. In
one implementation, the processor 510 is a single-threaded
processor. In another implementation, the processor 510 is a
multi-threaded processor. The processor 510 is capable of
processing instructions stored in the memory 520 or on the storage
device 530. The memory 520 stores information within the system
500. In one implementation, the memory 520 is a computer-readable
medium. In one implementation, the memory 520 is a volatile memory
unit. In another implementation, the memory 520 is a non-volatile
memory unit.
[0070] The storage device 530 is capable of providing mass storage
for the system 500. In one implementation, the storage device 530
is a computer-readable medium. In various different
implementations, the storage device 530 can, for example, include a
hard disk device, an optical disk device, or some other large
capacity storage device.
[0071] The input/output device 540 provides input/output operations
for the system 500. In one implementation, the input/output device
540 can include one or more of a network interface device, e.g., an
Ethernet card, a serial communication device, e.g., and RS-232
port, and/or a wireless interface device, e.g., an 802.11 card. In
another implementation, the input/output device can include driver
devices configured to receive input data and send output data to
other input/output devices, e.g., keyboard, printer and display
devices 560.
[0072] While this specification contains many specific
implementation details, these should not be construed as
limitations on the scope of any inventions or of what may be
claimed, but rather as descriptions of features specific to
particular embodiments of particular inventions. Certain features
that are described in this specification in the context of separate
embodiments can also be implemented in combination in a single
embodiment. Conversely, various features that are described in the
context of a single embodiment can also be implemented in multiple
embodiments separately or in any suitable subcombination. Moreover,
although features may be described above as acting in certain
combinations and even initially claimed as such, one or more
features from a claimed combination can in some cases be excised
from the combination, and the claimed combination may be directed
to a subcombination or variation of a subcombination.
[0073] Similarly, while operations are depicted in the drawings in
a particular order, this should not be understood as requiring that
such operations be performed in the particular order shown or in
sequential order, or that all illustrated operations be performed,
to achieve desirable results. In certain circumstances,
multitasking and parallel processing may be advantageous. Moreover,
the separation of various system components in the embodiments
described above should not be understood as requiring such
separation in all embodiments, and it should be understood that the
described program components and systems can generally be
integrated together in a single software product or packaged into
multiple software products.
[0074] Thus, particular embodiments of the subject matter have been
described. Other embodiments are within the scope of the following
claims. In some cases, the actions recited in the claims can be
performed in a different order and still achieve desirable results.
In addition, the processes depicted in the accompanying figures do
not necessarily require the particular order shown, or sequential
order, to achieve desirable results. In certain implementations,
multitasking and parallel processing may be advantageous.
* * * * *