U.S. patent application number 11/135731 was filed with the patent office on 2006-05-04 for determining odds of a possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest.
Invention is credited to Gabriel Heskin, Greg Oliver, David Ian Ross, Ronnie Mitchell Tarter.
Application Number | 20060094506 11/135731 |
Document ID | / |
Family ID | 36262756 |
Filed Date | 2006-05-04 |
United States Patent
Application |
20060094506 |
Kind Code |
A1 |
Tarter; Ronnie Mitchell ; et
al. |
May 4, 2006 |
Determining odds of a possible outcome of an event which occurs
during a contest
Abstract
A method of determining odds of a possible outcome of an event
which occurs during a contest is disclosed. The contest may be a
sporting contest such as a football game. The method includes
accepting a set of one or more current parameter values (such as
score or field position) which influence the likelihood of the
possible event outcome (such as the likelihood of a running play).
The set of current parameter values is used to retrieve
situation-specific likelihood data from a data store. Odds
associated with the possible outcome are set based at least in part
on the likelihood data. The odds may be adjusted using one or more
non-situation-specific factors indicating an average likelihood of
the event outcome (such as an average likelihood of a running play
for a team regardless of situation). The method may expedite odds
determination. An associated system and machine readable medium are
also disclosed.
Inventors: |
Tarter; Ronnie Mitchell;
(Jolly Harbour, AG) ; Oliver; Greg; (Toronto,
CA) ; Heskin; Gabriel; (Jolly Harbour, AG) ;
Ross; David Ian; (Toronto, CA) |
Correspondence
Address: |
MARGER JOHNSON & MCCOLLOM, P.C.
210 SW MORRISON STREET, SUITE 400
PORTLAND
OR
97204
US
|
Family ID: |
36262756 |
Appl. No.: |
11/135731 |
Filed: |
May 23, 2005 |
Current U.S.
Class: |
463/42 |
Current CPC
Class: |
G06Q 10/00 20130101;
G06Q 50/34 20130101; G07F 17/3288 20130101 |
Class at
Publication: |
463/042 |
International
Class: |
A63F 9/24 20060101
A63F009/24 |
Claims
1. A method of determining odds of a possible outcome of an event
which occurs during a contest, comprising: accepting a set of one
or more current parameter values, a likelihood of said possible
outcome of said event being dependent upon each parameter;
utilizing said set of current parameter values to retrieve
likelihood data from a data store; and setting odds associated with
said possible outcome of said event based at least in part on said
likelihood data.
2. The method of claim 1 wherein said setting odds further
comprises adjusting said likelihood data, X, to obtain adjusted
likelihood data Y, utilizing at least one factor indicating a mean
or median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of
different sets of parameter values.
3. The method of claim 2 wherein said at least one factor comprises
a first factor, A, obtained by determining a mean or median
likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of different sets
of parameter values across a group of entities which have performed
said event.
4. The method of claim 3 wherein said at least one factor further
comprises a second factor, B, obtained by determining a mean or
median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of
different sets of parameter values for an entity of said group of
entities which is performing said event.
5. The method of claim 4 wherein said adjusted likelihood data, Y,
is related to said unadjusted likelihood data, X, by the formula
Y=((B-A.sup.2)/(A-A.sup.2)).times.X+(1-((B-A.sup.2)/(A-A.sup.2))).times.X-
.sup.2.
6. The method of claim 5 wherein said contest is a sport and each
entity of said group of entities is a participant in said
sport.
7. The method of claim 6 wherein each said participant is an
individual participant where said sport is an individual sport and
a team where said sport is a team sport.
8. The method of claim 1 wherein said method is for determining
odds of all possible outcomes of said event and wherein said
setting odds is for setting odds associated with each possible
outcome of said event based at least in part on said likelihood
data.
9. The method of claim 8 further comprising, responsive to said
setting odds, populating a display with an odds indication for each
possible outcome of said event.
10. The method of claim 9 further comprising: establishing a given
odds indication for a given possible outcome as an automatically
adjusted odds indication; accepting manual adjustment of any said
odds indication; and on a manual adjustment of an odds indication
other than said automatically adjusted odds indication,
commensurately adjusting said automatically adjusted odds
indication to maintain a certain cumulative probability of all
possible outcomes of said event.
11. The method of claim 10 further comprising juicing each said
odds indication.
12. The method of claim 11 further comprising, on receiving a user
prompt, exporting an indication of said event and each said odds
indication.
13. The method of claim 11 further comprising: on receiving a first
user prompt, providing an indication of said event and each said
odds indication; receiving bets on at least one possible outcome of
said event; and on receiving a second user prompt, ceasing to
receive bets on any possible outcome of said event.
14. The method of claim 7 wherein said sport is American football
and wherein said parameter values are values for field position,
down, and yards to go to the next first down.
15. A computer system for determining odds of a possible outcome of
an event which occurs during a contest, comprising: a user
interface; a display; a data store; and a processor for: receiving
a set of one or more current parameter values from said user
interface, a likelihood of said possible outcome of said event
being dependent upon each parameter; utilizing said set of current
parameter values to retrieve likelihood data from said data store;
setting odds associated with said possible outcome of said event
based at least in part on said likelihood data; and displaying an
indication of said odds on said display.
16. A machine-readable medium encoded for determining odds of a
possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest,
comprising: machine executable code for accepting a set of one or
more current parameter values, a likelihood of said possible
outcome of said event being dependent upon each parameter; machine
executable code for utilizing said set of current parameter values
to retrieve likelihood data from a data store; and machine
executable code for setting odds associated with said possible
outcome of said event based at least in part on said likelihood
data.
17. The machine-readable medium of claim 16 wherein said machine
executable code for setting odds further comprises machine
executable code for adjusting said likelihood data, X, to obtain
adjusted likelihood data Y, utilizing at least one factor
indicating a mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a
plurality of different sets of parameter values.
18. The machine-readable medium of claim 17 wherein said at least
one factor comprises a first factor, A, obtained by determining a
mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a plurality of
different sets of parameter values across a group of entities which
have performed said event.
19. The machine-readable medium of claim 18 wherein said at least
one factor further comprises a second factor, B, obtained by
determining a mean or median likelihood of said event outcome for a
plurality of different sets of parameter values for an entity of
said group of entities which is performing said event.
20. The machine-readable medium of claim 19 wherein said adjusted
likelihood data, Y, is related to said unadjusted likelihood data,
X, by the formula
Y=((B-A.sup.2)/(A-A.sup.2)).times.X+(1-((B-A.sup.2)/(A-A.sup.2))).times.X-
.sup.2.
Description
FIELD OF THE INVENTION
[0001] The invention relates to the determination of odds of a
possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest, for
possible use in electronic wagering systems which permit bets to be
placed during live contests, such as sporting contests.
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
[0002] Electronic wagering systems which permit bets to be placed
during live sporting contests are known. In one arrangement, the
entity that accepts the wager (the house) provides a betting
interface to a user (a bettor) by way of a web site. During the
contest (e.g. a football game), which the user may watch via a
televised broadcast, the user accesses the web site via an
Internet-connected computer. The house presents a set of
propositions to the user via the web site in respect of which bets
may be placed. A "proposition" is a query regarding an event which
has multiple potential outcomes. The event is typically a discrete
event which is expected occur in the relatively near future (e.g.,
a next play, kick, or throw) in the context of a sporting contest
(or simply "sport"). The set of propositions changes dynamically as
play progresses. The propositions displayed at any given moment
depend upon the current status of the game, as well as the type of
sporting contest being played. For example, propositions may
include, in the case of a football game in which a play is about to
commence: "Will the next play be a run or a pass?". In the case of
a soccer match where a penalty kick is imminent, a proposition may
be "Will the penalty kick be successful?". And in the case of a
baseball game where a pitch is about to be thrown, a proposition
may be "Will the next pitch be a ball or a strike?".
[0003] Each proposition is presented along with the odds associated
with each potential outcome. The term "odds" refers to the amount
that a bet on an event outcome pays, which is based on the actual
likelihood of the event outcome but may include other factors, such
as a house commission (referred to as "juice" in betting parlance).
The proposition and associated odds are cumulatively referred to as
a "line". The act of presenting lines to a user so as to permit the
user to place bets is referred to as the posting of lines "on the
board" (or simply "on board").
[0004] The user may place a bet in respect of any line that is
currently on board, e.g., by using his computer keyboard or mouse
to select an outcome and specify a betting amount. When the
relevant event is about to commence, lines pertaining to that event
are typically taken "off the board" (or simply "off board") by the
house to prevent users from betting once the actual outcome is
suggested or apparent. After the event has occurred, the house is
responsible for assessing the outcome of the event, determining
whether each bet placed in respect of that event has won or lost,
informing the user of the outcome, and crediting or debiting a
user's account appropriately based on the amount of the wager and
the odds associated with the selected outcome.
[0005] The determination of odds is an important aspect of known
electronic wagering systems because the odds will ultimately
determine whether or not the house will profit. As is known in the
art, the house does not usually place any bets, but merely serves
as a broker, matching users who bet on opposing outcomes. From the
house's perspective, it is desirable for the bets placed on
opposing outcomes of a proposition to be equal (balanced), so that
the winners' profits can be paid from the losers' losses, while the
house keeps the commissions which it charges for brokering the
transactions. The odds for opposing outcomes should thus ideally be
set to encourage equal betting between outcomes across multiple
users. As well, the odds should not be such that a few lucky bets
placed on unlikely outcomes will result in a depletion of the
house's funds.
[0006] The odds that are presented to a user are usually set by a
human administrator acting on behalf of the house. The
administrator may also be in charge of posting lines onto the
board, removing lines from the board, and determining bet outcomes
and payouts. Accordingly, the administrator may be burdened with
many tasks.
[0007] Contributing to the burden on a human administrator is the
limited amount of time that may be available for performing the
above-noted tasks. During the course of a single National Football
League (NFL) or National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA)
football game, for example, 100-150 plays are typically executed.
When no timeouts, commercial breaks or injury stoppages have been
made, an NFL team is normally allowed a maximum of 40 seconds after
the completion of a play to commence the next one to avoid a
penalty (a maximum of only 25 seconds is allowed in the NCAA).
Teams typically begin a play with 5 to 15 seconds left on the play
clock, leaving at most a 25 to 35 second window of opportunity for
a human administrator to assess the situation, determine
appropriate odds for each of the propositions to be presented and
post lines on the board so that users may review the odds and place
bets. If a football team adopts what is known as a "no-huddle" or
"hurry-up" offense, this window of opportunity may be reduced to as
short as 5 to 10 seconds.
[0008] During this short period of time, odds must be determined
and lines placed on the board as quickly as possible, so that users
have sufficient time read the odds and place bets. If a user does
not have enough time to place a bet, potential income for the house
may be lost. Creating odds with speed is therefore important for
purposes of promoting betting activity and for increasing the
potential income for the house. The degree of speed that is
desirable may of course depend on the type of contest that is under
way (e.g. slower response times may be acceptable for sports having
a slower pace, such as golf or baseball, than for other sports such
as football). Nevertheless, faster odds determination is generally
better from the perspective of the house.
[0009] Rapid odds determination may also be desirable for contests
other than sporting contests (e.g. elections).
[0010] A manner of quickly determining odds associated with an
event outcome would therefore be desirable.
SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
[0011] A method of determining odds of a possible outcome of an
event which occurs during a contest is disclosed. The contest may
be a sporting contest such as a football game. The method includes
accepting a set of one or more current parameter values (such as
score or field position) which influence the likelihood of the
possible event outcome (such as the likelihood of a running play).
The set of current parameter values is used to retrieve
situation-specific likelihood data from a data store. Odds
associated with the possible outcome are set based at least in part
on the likelihood data. The odds may be adjusted using one or more
non-situation-specific factors indicating an average likelihood of
the event outcome (such as an average likelihood of a running play
for a team regardless of situation). The method may expedite odds
determination. An associated system and machine readable medium are
also disclosed.
[0012] In accordance with an aspect of the present invention there
is provided a method of determining odds of a possible outcome of
an event which occurs during a contest, comprising: accepting a set
of one or more current parameter values, a likelihood of the
possible outcome of the event being dependent upon each parameter;
utilizing the set of current parameter values to retrieve
likelihood data from a data store; and setting odds associated with
the possible outcome of the event based at least in part on the
likelihood data.
[0013] In accordance with another aspect of the present invention
there is provided a computer system for determining odds of a
possible outcome of an event which occurs during a contest,
comprising: a user interface; a display; a data store; and a
processor for: receiving a set of one or more current parameter
values from the user interface, a likelihood of the possible
outcome of the event being dependent upon each parameter; utilizing
the set of current parameter values to retrieve likelihood data
from the data store; setting odds associated with the possible
outcome of the event based at least in part on the likelihood data;
and displaying an indication of the odds on the display.
[0014] In accordance with still another aspect of the present
invention there is provided a machine-readable medium encoded for
determining odds of a possible outcome of an event which occurs
during a contest, comprising: machine executable code for accepting
a set of one or more current parameter values, a likelihood of the
possible outcome of the event being dependent upon each parameter;
machine executable code for utilizing the set of current parameter
values to retrieve likelihood data from a data store; and machine
executable code for setting odds associated with the possible
outcome of the event based at least in part on the likelihood
data.
[0015] Other aspects and features of the present invention will
become apparent to those ordinarily skilled in the art upon review
of the following description of specific embodiments of the
invention in conjunction with the accompanying figures.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0016] Exemplary embodiments of the invention will now be described
with reference to the attached drawings in which:
[0017] FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an electronic wagering
system exemplary of an embodiment of the invention;
[0018] FIG. 2 illustrates a client interface that is presented to a
bettor at a bettor computer of the system of FIG. 1;
[0019] FIG. 3 illustrates a control panel interface that is
presented to an administrator of the system of FIG. 1 at an
administrator computer;
[0020] FIG. 4 illustrate an odds adjustment window which forms part
of the control panel interface of FIG. 3;
[0021] FIG. 5 illustrates an exemplary set of historical data that
is stored in a database of the electronic wagering system of FIG.
1;
[0022] FIG. 6 illustrates a portion of the historical data of FIG.
5 which pertains to a particular sporting league;
[0023] FIG. 7 illustrates a situation identifier table component of
the data illustrated in FIG. 6;
[0024] FIG. 8 a situation-specific league statistics component of
the data illustrated in FIG. 6;
[0025] FIG. 9 illustrates a table which forms part of the
statistics of FIG. 8 which contains likelihoods for various types
next play event outcomes for an NFL football team in various game
situations; and
[0026] FIG. 10 illustrates operation for odds determination.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0027] FIG. 1 illustrates an electronic wagering system 10 which
permits bettors (users) to place bets during live sporting contests
or other types of contests. In particular, the system 10 allows
bettors to place bets on the outcome of events (e.g. plays, penalty
kicks, etc.) which occur during the course of the sporting
contest.
[0028] Electronic wagering system 10 is a distributed system having
four components, namely, a bet server 14, an administrator computer
18, a broadcast server 26 and a bettor computer 22. The bet server
14, administrator computer 18, broadcast server 26 and bettor
computer 22 may be located in different geographic locations. In
the illustrated embodiment, the bet server 14 and broadcast server
26 are co-located. The four devices 14, 18, 26 and 22
intercommunicate by way of a network 20, which in the present
embodiment comprises the public Internet, but which may comprise
other types of networks in alternative embodiments.
[0029] The bet server 14 is a computing device, such as an
INTEL.RTM. processor-based server platform for example, which
executes bet server software. The bet server 14 has a number of
responsibilities which generally pertain to the betting process.
First, the bet server 14 is responsible for establishing betting
sessions with one or more bettor computers 22. This may entail
authenticating bettor usernames and passwords entered at betting
computers 22, to ensure that any subsequent betting transactions
which may occur are genuine. Second, the bet server 14 is
responsible for receiving and validating bet requests from one or
more bettor computers 22. Validation may entail checking a bettor
account for sufficiency of funds as well as checking bet timestamps
to ensure that bets are not placed after a betting time window has
closed. Third, the bet server 14 receives grading notifications
from the administrator computer 18 indicating which of a number of
potential event outcomes has actually occurred. This information is
used for the purpose of assessing whether the bets that have been
placed are winners or losers. The bet server 14 may have additional
responsibilities. The bet server software may be implemented as a
.NET Windows service written in the C# programming language, and
may be loaded from a machine readable medium, such as a removable
magnetic or optical disk 15. In the present embodiment, the bet
server 14 is located at a sportsbook location.
[0030] The bet server 14 has an associated database 16. Database 16
is a SQL server database which serves as a central data store for
various types of data associated with the electronic wagering
system 10. For example, database 16 includes data regarding bettor
accounts, ongoing sporting contests ("games"), current propositions
and lines regarding upcoming game events, actual event outcomes,
placed bets, and bettor payouts. As well, the database 16 stores
historical data 17 consisting of historical league and team
averages for various game event outcomes. The historical data 17 is
used for purposes of quickly determining odds associated with a
particular event outcome for a team of interest in a particular set
of game circumstances, as will be described. The database 16 is
typically co-located with the bet server 14, although this is not
required.
[0031] Administrator computer 18 is a computing device executing
software which permits a human administrator 19 acting on behalf of
the house to control the electronic wagering system 10. In
particular, the software executing at administrator computer 18
presents a control panel graphical user interface (GUI) 50 for
controlling, for a chosen sporting contest, which bets (i.e. which
lines) are available to bettors 23 at any given time as well as the
odds associated with potential event outcomes. As lines and odds
are determined by the administrator 19, they are communicated to
broadcast server 26 (described below) which in turn broadcasts this
information to one or more bettor computers 22. The GUI 50 also
includes an editable scoreboard which is updated by the
administrator 19 throughout the course of a contest for
presentation to bettors 23, also by way of broadcast server 26. As
well, the GUI 50 of administrator computer 18 allows the
administrator 19 to "grade" lines, i.e., to formally indicate which
of the multiple potential outcomes of a recent event actually
occurred. When lines are graded, appropriate grading notifications
are sent from administrator computer 18 to the bet server 14, so
that bet outcomes may be determined.
[0032] The control panel GUI 50 employs a number of mechanisms
which permit the administrator 19 to quickly determine and adjust
odds associated with event outcomes and post lines "on the board"
(i.e. cause lines in respect of which bets may be placed to be
displayed at bettor computers 22), so that bettors 23 are afforded
as much time as possible to review odds and place bets. These
mechanisms include automatic determination of default odds
associated with certain event outcomes, as well as the optional
automatic adjustment of odds for certain event outcomes, as will be
described. The software executing on administrator computer 18 may
be implemented as a C#.Net Windows.RTM. application, and may loaded
from a machine readable medium, such as a removable magnetic or
optical disk 21 for example. Administrator computer 18 is located
at an administrator location, which may conveniently be a location
having a broadband Internet connection.
[0033] Broadcast server 26 is a server which broadcasts scoreboard,
line and odds information received from administrator computer 18
to all connected bettor computers 22. The broadcast server 26
essentially alleviates the administrator computer 18 from the
burden of communicating with multiple bettor computers. Broadcast
server 26 receives notifications indicative of the creation and
modification of lines, as well as indications that lines are to be
posted on board or taken off board and scoreboard updates, from
administrator computer 18. This information may be combined with
other data retrieved from database 16 and broadcast to all
connected bettor computers 22. In the present embodiment, the
broadcast information takes the form of XML messages which are
created from .Net DataSets generated at broadcast server 26. The
server 26 uses a TCP/IP multicasting system to efficiently transmit
the XML messages to all connected bettor computers 22 (the same
messages are sent to each computer 22). To achieve these
objectives, the broadcast server 26 executes software 27, which may
be loaded from a machine readable medium, such as a removable
magnetic or optical disk 27 for example.
[0034] Bettor computer 22 is a computing device, such as an
Internet connected personal computer (PC), providing a client
interface 24 which allows a bettor 23 to interact with the
electronic wagering system 10. The client interface 24 dynamically
displays data based on scoreboard, line and odds information
received periodically from broadcast server 26 and upon bet
information received from bet server 14 to a bettor 23. The client
interface 24 allows a bettor 23 to perform such actions as: view
current game information including game status and score; view
currently posted lines; place bets; and view bet outcome
information. The client interface 24 may for example be implemented
as a Java.TM. applet 25 which is launched from a main web page. The
main web page may be a simple ASP .Net application that may be
hosted on the broadcast server 26, the bet server 14, or on a
separate machine, whose purpose may solely be to provide the
Java.TM. applet to bettors via their web browsers. The user may
access the main web page by way of a commercially available web
browser, such as Internet Explorer.TM. or Firefox.TM. for example,
executing at bettor computer 22. Conveniently, most
Internet-connected computing devices equipped with suitable web
browsers may become bettor computers 22. It will be appreciated
that the number of bettor computers 22 connected to the system 10
at any given time may be greater than one, however only one
computer 22 is illustrated in FIG. 1 for the sake of clarity.
[0035] The electronic wagering system 10 may include other
components in addition to bet server 14, administrator computer 18,
broadcast server 26 and bettor computer 22, which are not
illustrated in FIG. 1, for the sake of clarity.
[0036] FIGS. 2 and 3 illustrate the GUIs 24 and 50 presented to a
bettor 23 and administrator 19 respectively. FIGS. 2 and 3
cumulatively provide an overview of the operation of the system 10
and thus serves as a good context for the subsequent description of
odds determination methodology, which is the focus of the present
description.
[0037] Referring first to FIG. 2, the client interface 24 of FIG. 1
which is presented to a bettor 23 at bettor computer 22 is
illustrated. The interface 24 illustrated in FIG. 2 is particular
to an NFL football game. As illustrated, the client interface 24
has four panels, namely, a scoreboard panel 32, a betting panel 34,
a lines panel 36, and a bet list panel 39.
[0038] Scoreboard panel 32 displays current game status and score
information to the bettor 23. The information displayed within
scoreboard panel 32 is the same sort of information that is
displayed on a scoreboard at a stadium where NFL football games are
played. The various fields appearing in scoreboard panel 32 are
referred to generically as dynamic contest parameters, since they
change dynamically as the contest progresses. The fields that are
displayed in panel 32 may differ for different sports. In the
present NFL football example, the fields include quarter, score,
time left to play in the current quarter (the "clock"), field
position, down, yards to go to next first down, and possession
information. The information displayed in scoreboard panel 32 is
received from broadcast server 26 and originates from administrator
computer 18.
[0039] Betting panel 34 indicates the status of the bettor's
financial account and allows the bettor 23 to select a default
betting amount for "one-click" betting (described below). The
balance information displayed in betting panel 34 originates from
bet server 14.
[0040] The lines panel 36 presents lines that are currently on the
board, i.e., visible by the bettor 23 and available for betting.
The set of displayed lines changes dynamically as the football game
progresses. In the example illustrated in FIG. 2, two lines 37 and
38 are displayed in panel 36, each with a set of buttons
representing potential event outcomes for the associated
proposition. For example, line 61, which is based on the
proposition "What will the next play be?", has four buttons 40, 41,
42 and 43 representative of the outcomes "Pass Completion", "Pass
Incomplete", "Rush" (i.e. running play), and "Turnover"
respectively.
[0041] The odds for each outcome are displayed in American terms
within the button associated with that outcome. In American terms,
a positive value +X means that 100 dollars must be wagered to win X
dollars, whereas a negative value -Y means that Y dollars must be
wagered to win 100 dollars. The manner in which these odds are
determined will be described below.
[0042] The user may alternatively choose to have odds displayed in
European terms through a configuration option of client interface
24. Positive American odds are converted to European terms by
dividing the odds by 100 and adding 1 (e.g. +250 would convert to
3.50). Negative odds are converted by inverting the odds (i.e.
dividing 1 by the odds), multiplying by -100 and adding 1 (e.g.
-150 would convert to 1.67). The lines information displayed in
lines panel 36 is received from broadcast server 26.
[0043] Bet list panel 39 displays a list of the bets that have been
placed by the bettor 23 during the current game, along with bet
outcomes and payouts. After a bet is placed, the bet outcome will
indicate "pending" until grading is completed by the administrator
19.
[0044] To place a bet, a bettor 23 who has specified a default
betting amount in the betting panel 34 of client interface 24
merely clicks on (i.e. selects) a button associated with the
desired event outcome in the current lines panel 36. The amount of
the bet will be automatically be set to equal the default betting
amount specified in betting panel 34. This is referred to as
"one-click" betting. Advantageously, bets may be placed quickly in
this manner, which increases the likelihood of a greater number of
bets. Alternatively, the user may configure the client interface 24
to present a confirmation prompt before any bet is accepted, so
that the likelihood of unintentionally placed bets is reduced.
[0045] Turning to FIG. 3, the control panel interface 50 which is
displayed to an administrator 19 at administrator computer 18 of
FIG. 1 is illustrated. The control panel interface 50 includes two
panels, namely, a scoreboard panel 52 and a lines panel 56.
[0046] Scoreboard panel 52 provides various controls for updating
dynamic contest parameters, such as current game status and score
information, that are ultimately presented to bettor 23. In the
present embodiment, the administrator 19 updates scoreboard content
via edit boxes 54 and radio buttons 55, as game play progresses.
The administrator 19 may merely mimic scoreboard updates which
occur on the scoreboard of a televised broadcast of the game. After
each scoreboard update or set of updates is made in panel 52, the
administrator 19 selects the "Lines Onboard" button 68 (below lines
panel 56) in order to communicate the updated scoreboard, along
with any new lines, to bettor(s) 23 via broadcast server 26 (the
Lines Onboard button 68 is described in more detail below). In
situations when no new lines need to be posted for an extended
period (e.g. during a basketball game), such that the administrator
9 wishes to refresh bettors' client interface 24 without creating
lines, the "Send Scoreboard" button 58 (also below lines panel 56)
may be selected in order to simply update bettors' scoreboards. The
"Send Scoreboard" button 58 has an associated hotkey <F12> on
the keyboard of administrator computer 18, which may be selected
instead of button 58. The hotkey frees the administrator 19 from
having to use a computer mouse or other pointing device, which may
be cumbersome and time-consuming, in order to send scoreboard
updates to bettors.
[0047] Lines panel 56 is used by the administrator 19 for the
purpose of creating lines, posting lines on the board, and removing
lines from the board as game play progresses. Four exemplary lines
60, 62, 64 and 66 are illustrated in FIG. 3. Each line is made up
of a number of fields, namely, an active field 70, a lock field 72,
a status field 74, a proposition field 76, and an outcomes field
78.
[0048] Active field 70 is a checkbox which indicates whether the
line is currently "active", i.e., editable by the administrator 19
and eligible for posting on the board. When a line is active, the
line will be posted on board when the administrator selects the
"Lines Onboard" button 68 and will be taken off board when the
administrator 19 selects the "Lines Offboard" button 69, unless the
line is locked (see below description of lock field 72). "Lines
Onboard" button 68 and "Lines Offboard" button 69, as well as their
associated keyboard hotkeys <Enter> and <Esc>
respectively, are intended to permit the administrator 19 to
quickly post lines onto the board and quickly remove lines from the
board, respectively. Selection of button 68 may be referred to
generically as the generation of a first user prompt while
selection of button 69 may be referred to as the generation of a
second user prompt (in this context, the term "user" refers to the
administrator 19). When a line is inactive, the line is not
editable and is not posted on board or taken off board when the
administrator 19 selects button 68 or 69 respectively. In the
present embodiment, odds are not displayed for inactive lines. An
administrator 19 may maintain inactive lines within lines panel 56
for possible later activation when game conditions are
suitable.
[0049] Lock field 72 is a checkbox which indicates whether the line
is currently "locked". When a line is locked, the line will remain
on board even when the "Lines Offboard" button 69 has been
selected. Typically, only lines whose outcomes are not expected to
be known for some time, (i.e., lines with "long term outcomes") are
locked. For example, if a line is based on the proposition "Which
team will score more points this quarter?", the event outcome will
not be apparent until the quarter is completed. It may be desirable
to display this line during most of the multiple plays/downs that
comprise a football quarter, in order to permit bets to be placed
as the quarter progresses. During the quarter, it may also be
desirable to post and remove other lines based on propositions
whose outcomes will be known more quickly, such as lines based on
the proposition "What will the next play be?". By locking the line
with the long-term outcome, the administrator 19 may post and
remove the other lines using buttons 68 and 69 without affecting
the former line's "on board" status. If it is necessary to remove
all lines (regardless of locked status), the administrator 19 may
select the "Lines Offboard ALL" button 73, or associated hotkey
<Shift+Esc>.
[0050] The status field 74 of lines panel 56 indicates whether the
line is currently on board or off board. In order to provide a
clear visual indication of status, the "on board" indicator may be
one color while the "off board" indicator is another color. As
well, both indicators may employ appropriate text in large, bold
fonts. These characteristics may reduce the likelihood of the
administrator 19 inadvertently leaving on board lines when they
should be off board, and vice versa.
[0051] The proposition field 76 of a line indicates the proposition
on which the line is based. In the present embodiment, which
pertains to an NFL football game, any one of the ten propositions
listed in Table 1 below may appear field 76 (potential event
outcomes are indicated in the last column of Table 1):
TABLE-US-00001 TABLE 1 Propositions for NFL Football Games #
Proposition Potential Outcomes 1. What will the next play be? Pass
Completion, Pass Incomplete, Rush, Turnover 2. Will the [offensive
team] get a first down on Yes, No this series of downs? 3. What
will the [offensive team] do on this Touchdown, Field drive? Goal,
No Score 4. Where will the [defensive team] start their Over, Under
drive from after this kickoff? 5. Where will the [defensive team]
start their Over, Under drive from after this punt? 6. Will this
field goal attempt be successful? Yes, No 7. Which player will
reach [yard count] [Home Player], passing/rushing/receiving yards
first? [Visiting Player] 8. How many passing/rushing/total yards
will Over, Under the [offensive team] get during this drive? 9.
Which team will beat the spread? [Home Team], [Visiting Team] 10.
Will the total score be over or under? Over, Under
[0052] Values in square brackets in the propositions of Table 1 are
placeholder (i.e. variables) that are replaced with actual values
in the lines that are displayed in lines panel 52 of control panel
interface 50 and lines panel 36 of client interface 24 (FIG. 2).
Some of these replacements are performed automatically by the
system 10 (e.g. substitutions of team names) while others may
require input from the administrator 19 (e.g. selection of
individual team players from a roster).
[0053] The number and types of propositions for other
leagues/contests or in alternative embodiments may differ. For
example, propositions for basketball may include the following:
1) What will the next point be?
2) What team will get the next block?
3) What team will get the next steal?
4) What team will get the next 3-point field goal?
5) Which player will get a steal first?
6) Which player will get a 3-point field goal first?
7) Which player will get a block first?
8) Which team will beat the spread?
9) Will the total score be over or under?
10) Which team will reach [pts] points first?
11) Which player will reach [pts] points first?
[0054] Propositions for baseball may include the following:
1) What will the outcome of this plate appearance be?
2) Will [player] score a run as a result of this plate
appearance?
3) How many RBI's will [player] get during this plate
appearance?
4) Will [player] get an RBI during this plate appearance?
5) Will [player] ground into a double play?
6) How many runs will the [team] score this inning?
7) How many hits will the [team] have this inning?
8) Will the [team] get a stolen base this inning?
[0055] The outcomes field 78 of a line indicates potential event
outcomes for that line. Each line will have at least two mutually
exclusive outcomes in field 78, with associated odds for each
outcome. When a line is activated, the "default odds" for each
potential outcome will be displayed within an edit box. The term
"default odds" refers to a likelihood of an event outcome, versus
"odds" in the sense of a bettor payout as define above. There are
two types of default odds. The first type, which may be referred to
as "precompiled default odds", is based on historical data 17 (FIG.
1), and is of primary interest in the present description. The
second type of default odds, which may be referred to as "standard
default odds", is used when no precompiled default odds are
available. The latter type of default odds simply constitutes an
apportionment of odds evenly between all potential event outcomes
(e.g. if four potential outcomes exist, each will have default odds
of 25%). This type of default odds is not central to the present
description.
[0056] The odds are displayed in field 78 as percentages due to the
fact that most administrators are able to best appreciate the odds
in this form. The percentage odds for all of the potential event
outcomes in a single line will normally total 100% (e.g. the
percentages in edit boxes 80, 82 and 84 of line 60 total 100%). To
maintain this 100% total in the event that the administrator 19
manually adjusts one or more of the odds, which may occur as
described below, one of the edit boxes may be configured to
automatically set its value to "100%-T %", where T % is the total
of the percentages in all other edit boxes. The edit box having
this capability may be visually distinct from the other edit boxes
in order to alert the administrator 19 to this feature. For
example, in line 60 of FIG. 3, the last edit box 84 (associated
with the "No Score" potential outcome) is gray, indicating that the
displayed value (59.2%) is automatically generated by subtracting
the total of the percentages in the other, white edit boxes 80 and
82 (38.8%) from 100%. Only one edit box per line may have this
feature; it is not necessarily the rightmost edit box.
[0057] Depending upon the type of proposition in respect of which
odds are displayed, the odds appearing in the edit boxes of
outcomes field 78 may be precompiled default odds or standard
default odds. Precompiled default odds are only used for
propositions for which the precompiled default odds have been
previously generated and stored in historical data 17 of database
16. The set of propositions for which precompiled default odds are
available is typically hard-coded in the system 10. In the present
embodiment, precompiled default odds are available for propositions
1 to 6 of Table 1 above. Standard default odds are used for
propositions 7 to 10 of Table 1.
[0058] Where the default odds displayed in the edit boxes of field
78 are precompiled default odds, they may either be unadjusted odds
or adjusted odds. Unadjusted odds are based solely on game
situation-specific league average statistics, and may be referred
to as "straight precompiled default odds". Adjusted default odds
are also based on game situation-specific league average
statistics, but further incorporate team-specific statistics which
are intended to reflect any deviation of the team from league
averages. In order for the odds to be displayed in the edit boxes
in adjusted form, an odds adjustment formula should exist for the
relevant outcome (odds adjustment formulae do not necessarily exist
for all outcomes). As well, the administrator 19 should have
activated odds adjustment, i.e., configured the control panel
interface 50 to automatically apply the relevant formula to cause
the percentages displayed in the edit boxes of field 78 to
incorporate team-specific statistics.
[0059] To activate odds adjustment, the administrator 19 should
have entered various statistics specific to the current team. This
is typically done prior to game time (although the statistics may
be entered or updated during game time). The entered statistics may
be referred to as "factors" since they constitutes variable factors
in otherwise fixed equations that are used for odds adjustment. The
administrator 19 should also toggle a setting which activates
automatic application of the formulae. This is typically done on
demand at game time. Both of these steps are performed by way of a
separate odds adjustment window 100 (FIG. 4), which is launched via
adjustment button 98 (FIG. 3).
[0060] The exact formulae for performing odds adjustment are
proposition and outcome dependent, however generally they are all
quadratic equations defining a curve with the three points (0,0),
(A,B) and (1,1), as follows: Y = ( B - A 2 A - A 2 ) .times. X + (
1 - ( B - A 2 A - A 2 ) ) .times. X 2 ( 1 ) ##EQU1## Where: [0061]
X=league-average probability of an event outcome occurring for a
given situation (i.e. precompiled default odds to be adjusted)
[0062] Y=adjusted outcome probability (i.e. adjusted odds) [0063]
A=league-average probability of an event outcome occurring
regardless of game situation [0064] B=team-specific probability of
an event outcome occurring regardless of game situation
[0065] Although equation (1) may occasionally create unrealistic
adjustments when B varies greatly from A, for most scenarios
equation (1) results in reasonable adjustments. The specific
formulae used for various propositions and event outcomes of an
(American) football game will be set forth later in this
description.
[0066] The odds adjustment window 100 that is launched when button
98 is selected is illustrated in FIG. 4. As illustrated, window 100
includes league selector radio buttons 102 and a team-specific
factors panel 104.
[0067] League selector radio buttons 102 allow the administrator 19
to select the relevant league for the current sporting contest. The
selection of league via buttons 102 determines which league's
statistics from historical data 17 of FIG. 1 (described below) will
be used for purposes of odds adjustment calculations. As will be
appreciated, the odds adjustment formulae include two categories of
factors: team-specific factors and league-average factors.
Team-specific factors (e.g. factor B of equation (1) above) are the
factors which are entered in team-specific factors panel 104
(described below). League-average factors (e.g. factor A of
equation (1) above) are read from historical data 17 of database 16
(FIG. 1). The setting of radio buttons 102 dictates which league's
factors will be read from historical data 17.
[0068] In the present embodiment, odds adjustment is only performed
for the NFL and NCAA football leagues, thus only these leagues may
be selected via buttons 102. Alternative embodiments may offer odds
adjustment for other leagues or sports.
[0069] The team-specific factors panel 104 of FIG. 4 allows entry
of up to six different team-specific factors which may be used in
various odds adjustment formulae. The over/under factor 106
indicates an expected total point score for the two teams in the
current sporting contest. The home spread factor 108 indicates the
home spread (i.e. the expected scoring differential between the
home team and visitor team in the current contest). The home pass
accuracy 110 indicates the pass accuracy of the home team (i.e. the
home team in the current contest, which is a specific NFL football
team) expressed as a probability of completion of a thrown pass
regardless of game situation. The home run frequency 112 indicates
the run frequency of the home team expressed as a probability of
executing a running play regardless of game situation. The visitor
pass accuracy 114 and visitor run frequency 116 are analogous to
factors 110 and 112 but pertain to the visitor team rather than the
home team.
[0070] The "Use Factors" checkbox 118 is an on-off toggle for
controlling whether or not the odds adjustment formulae are to be
automatically applied. When checkbox 118 contains a check mark,
odds adjustment is automatically performed using whatever data has
been entered in team-specific factors panel 104, as well as
league-average data read from the database 16. The values in the
various fields of panel 104 may be entered well in advance of a
sporting contest, based on statistics obtained from a source of
sports statistics such as web site www.statistics.com for example,
so that the administrator 19 may merely click checkbox 118 during
the contest to activate automatic odds adjustment or deactivate
it.
[0071] Regardless of whether odds adjustment is performed, the odds
in the edit boxes of field 78 of FIG. 3 may also be manually
adjusted. This may be done by the administrator 19 based on
knowledge of current game factors (e.g. weather conditions, player
injuries, etc.). It is possible for the percentage odds in a line
to be manually adjusted to that their total is more than or less
than 100%. This may be done in exceptional cases, e.g., to cause
certain outcome to appear more desirable to bettors for purposes of
promoting balanced betting. Specifically, this may be done by first
adjusting the odds in the edit boxes which are not automatically
set (during which time, the odds in the gray box adjust
automatically to 100%-T %) and thereafter setting the odds in the
gray box to a different value.
[0072] In addition to displaying default odds in percentage form in
the edit boxes of outcomes field 78, the actual odds that will be
seen by bettors 23 are displayed nearby in superscript, in American
or European terms. These odds are generated in two steps. First,
the percentage odds P (i.e. decimal probability P) are converted to
American terms with an applied "juice" factor by way of equation
(1) below:
AmericanOdds=if((1+JuiceFactor).times.(-100.times.P)/(1-P)<-100,
(2) (1+JuiceFactor).times.(-100.times.P)/(1-P),
[100.times.(1-P)]/[(1+JuiceFactor).times.P)])
[0073] In equation (2), if the term
(1+JuiceFactor).times.(-100.times.P)/(1-P) is less than -100, the
American odds are computed using the term
(1+JuiceFactor).times.(-100.times.P)/(1-P); otherwise they are
computed using the term
[100.times.(1-P)]/[(1+JuiceFactor).times.P)].
[0074] The juice factor constitutes the house's commission for
acting as a broker. In the present embodiment, a base juice factor
of 15% (i.e. 0.15) is applied, i.e. the odds are reduced by 15%.
For unlikely events, the odds may be reduced by a higher percentage
juice factor, with the percentage increasing progressively for
event outcome likelihoods that are below a threshold. For example,
a threshold may be set at 16%, such that for likelihoods that are
less than 16%, an additional juice factor is added to the base
juice factor. The additional juice factor may be determined by
multiplying the difference between the threshold and the likelihood
by a multiplier, such as 3 (e.g. for a likelihood of 13%, the
additional juice factor will be (16%-13%).times.3 or 9%, for a
total juice factor of 15%+9% or 24%). The rationale for increasing
the juice factor for unlikely or extremely unlikely event outcomes
is to prevent a lucky bettor from depleting the funds of the house
by placing a substantial bet on an unlikely or extremely unlikely
outcome.
[0075] Second, the resultant odds are rounded down to the nearest
increment of 5.
[0076] To generate European odds, the conversion from the American
odds described earlier would be applied to the rounded odds.
Conversion is performed after rounding so that any payout will be
the same regardless of the user's choice of American or European
style odds display.
[0077] The above two steps are performed automatically by the
software executing at administrator computer 18. Thus, the three
percentages 22%, 18.8%, and 59.2% displayed in edit boxes 80, 82
and 84 are automatically converted to +305, +375 and -170 shown at
90, 92 and 94 respectively. These are the odds that will ultimately
be displayed at bettor computers 22.
[0078] Referring again to FIG. 3, it is noted that certain lines of
lines panel 56 include additional edit boxes 86 beyond those used
to display outcome odds. The additional edit boxes are used to set
certain thresholds which form part of the relevant bet. For
example, lines 62, 64 and 66 contain edit boxes 86 which the
administrator 19 may edit in order to set a number of points
above/below which the teams must score for a bettor to prevail in
an over/under total score proposition (line 62), to set a point
spread (line 64), or to set a yard line above/below which a
defensive team must begin its post-punt drive for a bettor to
prevail in an over/under post-punt drive starting point proposition
(line 66).
[0079] Referring to FIG. 5, an exemplary set of historical data 17
that is stored in the database 16 of FIG. 1 is shown. Historical
data 17 includes a number of distinct groupings 200, 202 and 204 of
data. Each data grouping 200, 202 and 204 is specific to a type of
sport and league, and may be accessed independently of other data
groupings. Each data grouping may be a distinct set of database
tables within database 16 for example. The historical data 17
illustrated in FIG. 5 includes NFL football data 200, NCAA football
data 202, and Major League Baseball (MLB) data 204. Additional data
groupings for other sports and/or leagues (not illustrated) may be
included within historical data 17. Data groupings 200, 202 and 204
may generally be referred to as "league data" 200, 202 and 204.
[0080] FIG. 6 illustrates NFL league data 200 of FIG. 5 in greater
detail. As illustrated, league data 200 includes a situation ID
table 210, situation-specific league statistics 218, and
non-situation-specific league statistics 219.
[0081] Situation ID table 210 is illustrated in FIG. 7 in greater
detail. Table 210 is a table which permits an identifier uniquely
representative of a game situation (a "situation ID") to be
retrieved based on a number of dynamic contest parameters
representative of that game situation. As illustrated in FIG. 7,
the table 210 includes a column for each dynamic contest parameter
that is considered to influence the likelihood of an event outcome
in respect of which a bet may be placed using the system 10 for the
current sport and league. In the NFL football example illustrated
in FIG. 7, the table 210 includes three columns 212, 214 and 216
which contain the dynamic contest parameters field position, down,
and yards to go to first down, respectively. Each row of the table
210 represents a unique potential game situation, i.e. a unique
combination of field position, down, and yards to go parameter
values. The table 210 is populated with sufficient rows to
represent most game situations, within certain limits of precision
of the parameters (e.g., field position may be rounded to the
nearest yard). The table 210 further includes a situation ID column
217. The situation ID value in column 217 for a particular row is
unique within table 210 and uniquely identifies the contest status
(i.e. game situation) represented by the parameter values in
columns 212, 214 and 216.
[0082] FIG. 8 illustrates the situation-specific league statistics
218 of FIG. 6 in greater detail. Statistics 218 constitute a set of
database tables which contain league-average likelihoods of event
outcomes (i.e. precompiled default odds) for particular game
situations. Each table represents a different type of event which
may occur during a sporting contest in the relevant sport and
league. In the present NFL football example, statistics 218 include
six tables, each representative of a event which may occur during
an NFL football game. In particular: table 220 contains
probabilities of the execution of different types of plays; table
222 contains probabilities of a first down being achieved; table
224 contains probabilities of various drive outcomes; tables 226
and 228 contain probabilities of various defensive team field
positions following kickoff or punt returns, respectively; and
table 230 contains probabilities of a field goal being scored. It
should be appreciated that all of the probabilities in tables 220,
222, 224, 226, 228 and 230 are league-average (versus
team-specific) statistics which are generated based on historical
league records well before the commencement of a sporting contest
between teams of that league. The purpose of each of the tables is
to permit the precompiled default odds of a particular event
outcome for a particular game situation to be retrieved.
Specifically, an event outcome identifier ("outcome ID") and a
situation ID are utilized to retrieve the default odds.
[0083] FIG. 9 illustrates one of the tables comprising statistics
218 of FIG. 7, namely, next play likelihood table 220, in greater
detail. As illustrated, table 220 has three columns: a situation ID
column 232, an outcome column 234 and a likelihood column 236. The
first column 232 contains situation IDs which uniquely identify
game situations. The second column 234 contains outcome IDs which
uniquely identify event outcomes. In the case of table 220, which
contains likelihoods of outcomes associated with a "next play"
event, the outcome IDs appearing in column 234 are RUSH, PASS and
TURNOVER. These IDs denote a running play, a completed pass and a
turnover, respectively. The outcome IDs could be represented as
integer, binary or other values for efficiency; however textual
values are used in column 234 of FIG. 9 for clarity.
[0084] The third column 236 of table 220 contains outcome
probabilities (i.e. precompiled default odds). The probabilities of
table 220 are actually averages which have been generated from
historical records of the past N NFL seasons, where N is an integer
(e.g. 3). To generate a probability for a given game situation
(e.g. field position: opponent's 15 yard line; down: 3.sup.rd;
yards to go: 2), historical records of NFL teams faced with the
identical situation are examined to determine what play the teams
executed in that situation. The fact that historical averages are
deemed to be probabilities of future occurrence of the event
outcomes reflects an underlying assumption that event outcome
probabilities are generally static over time.
[0085] An astute reader familiar with the rules of NFL football may
note that the set of outcomes represented by the outcome IDs
enumerated above is an incomplete set of "next plays" that may be
executed by a football team. It is also possible for a fourth
outcome, namely, an incomplete pass, to occur. The reason that no
outcome ID is included in table 220 for this outcome is that the
likelihood of an incomplete pass may be determined indirectly by
subtracting the combined probabilities of a RUSH, PASS and TURNOVER
from 1.0 (i.e. 100%). In general, omission of one of a finite set
of potential event outcomes may be used as a technique for limiting
the size of any of tables making up statistics 218, since the
likelihood of the outcome may be computed indirectly as described.
Conversely, it may be desirable to include all potential event
outcomes in each of tables of statistics 218 to avoid the need for
such "100%-X" computations.
[0086] So, by using tables 210 and 220, the league-average
likelihood of a running play, complete pass, or turnover (or,
indirectly, of an incomplete pass) may be determined for a
particular combination of the field position, down, and yards to go
parameters, all by way of simple table lookups.
[0087] It should be appreciated that not all events in respect of
which bets may be placed using system 10 will be influenced by the
same set of dynamic contest parameters. For example, the likelihood
of success of a field goal may be influenced only by field
position, and not by down or yards to go to next down. For this
reason, situation ID table 210 of FIG. 7 is capable of accepting
"wild card" values for any dynamic contest parameters which do not
affect an event outcome, and still return a meaningful situation
ID. For example, in the case when the "down" and "yards to go"
dynamic contest parameters do not influence event outcomes, the
table 210 may be populated with a number of records containing
values of "-1" in columns 214 and 216 (FIG. 7). The unique
situation IDs returned from such rows could be used to index into,
say, the field goal likelihood table 230, which may contain only
100 records: one field goal probability for each possible field
position in increments of one yard.
[0088] Referring back to FIG. 6, non-situation-specific league
statistics 219 consist of league statistics which are not specific
to any game situation. For example, non-situation-league statistics
219 include league-average probabilities of the execution of a
running play, regardless of field position, down and yards to go.
The statistics 219 are maintained for use in odds adjustment
formulae (i.e. as factor A of equation (1) above) which may be
automatically applied for certain event outcomes, as described
above. Like the situation-specific league statistics 218,
non-situation-specific league statistics 219 are averages generated
from the past N NFL seasons, however only one average is maintained
per event outcome (rather than many averages for many different
game situations). The league statistics 219 maintained in the
present embodiment are indicated Table 3 below, along with the
propositions whose odds may be affected thereby: TABLE-US-00002
TABLE 3 Non-situation-specific League Statistics Statistic
Propositions whose odds may be affected League-average run
likelihood What will the next play be? League-average turnover What
will the next play be? likelihood League-average pass What will the
next play be? completion frequency League-average non-offensive
Will the [offensive team] get a first down touchdown points per
game on this series of downs? What will the [offensive team] do on
this drive? League-average drives per Will the [offensive team] get
a first down game on this series of downs? What will the [offensive
team] do on this drive? League-average points per Will the
[offensive team] get a first down touchdown on this series of
downs? Will the [offensive team] get a first down on this series of
downs? League-average first down Will the [offensive team] get a
first down likelihood on this series of downs? League-average
offensive Will the [offensive team] get a first down touchdowns per
drive on this series of downs? What will the [offensive team] do on
this drive?
[0089] FIG. 10 illustrates operation 1000 of the present embodiment
for performing odds determination. For purposes of illustration,
FIG. 10 is described assuming that an administrator 19 wishes to
generate American style odds for the outcome "Rush" for the
proposition "What will the next play be?" in the context of an NFL
football game. It is assumed that the current contest status (i.e.
game situation) for the team in respect of which odds are to be
generated is as follows: field position: opposing team's 1 yard
line; down: 3.sup.rd; and yards to go to the next first down:
goal.
[0090] Initially, a situation ID representative of the current
contest status is retrieved (S1002) based on the current values of
the field position, down, and yards to go dynamic contest
parameters. The ID is retrieved by way of a table lookup in
situation ID table 210 (FIG. 7). In the present example, the
current parameter values match row 700 of the table 210, thus a
situation ID of "04321" (from column 217 of that row) is returned.
This situation ID represents the current game situation.
[0091] Next, the precompiled default odds for the outcome of
interest (i.e. the likelihood of a running play) are retrieved
based on the determined situation ID (S1004 of FIG. 10). The
default odds are retrieved by way of a table lookup within the next
play likelihood table 220 (FIG. 9). The situation ID of "04321" and
outcome ID of "RUSH" yield a match for row 900 of table 220,
containing a likelihood of "0.829" in its likelihood column 236.
This indicates that, on average, a running play will occur 82.9% of
the time in the NFL in this game situation.
[0092] Subsequently, an assessment is made as to whether automatic
odds adjustment is to be performed (S1006 of FIG. 10). In the
present example, it is assumed that the administrator 19 has
checked the "Use Factors" check box 118 of odds adjustment window
100 (FIG. 4), indicating that automatic odds adjustment should in
fact be performed.
[0093] Based on the proposition in respect of which odds are being
determined (i.e. "What will the next play be?"), the odds
adjustment formula to be applied is identified (S1008). In the
present example, the odds adjustment formula to be applied is
equation (3) below: AdjRun = ( RunFreq - LgAvgRun 2 LgAvgRun -
LgAvgRun 2 ) .times. .times. Run + ( 1 - ( RunFreq - LgAvgRun 2
LgAvgRun - LgAvgRun 2 ) ) .times. .times. Run 2 ( 3 ) ##EQU2##
Where: [0094] Run=probability of a running play (i.e. precompiled
default odds) in the current game situation, before odds adjustment
[0095] AdjRun=probability of a running play after odds adjustment
[0096] RunFreq=run frequency for the current team regardless of
game situation [0097] LgAvgRun=league-average run frequency
regardless of game situation
[0098] It will be appreciated that equation (3) includes a
team-specific team factor RunFreq and a league-average factor
LgAvgRun. These are specific examples of the factors B and A,
respectively, of equation (1) above. The team-specific factor
RunFreq is retrieved from the appropriate field of odds adjustment
window 100, which will have been filled in by the administrator 19
prior to game time. In the present example, the RunFreq value will
be retrieved from either the home run frequency field 112 or
visitor run frequency field 116 (FIG. 4), depending upon whether
the team of interest is the home team or visiting team,
respectively (S1010 of FIG. 10). It is assumed that this value is
0.621 (i.e. 62.1% of plays executed by this team overall are
running plays). The league-average factor LgAvgRun is retrieved
from the non-situation-specific league statistics 219 (FIG. 6) of
database 16 (S1012). It is assumed that this value is 0.4779 (i.e.
47.79% of plays executed by NFL teams overall are running
plays).
[0099] Using the retrieved factors, equation (3) is then applied to
effect odds adjustment (S1014 of FIG. 10). In the present example,
the precompiled default odds of a running play (82.9%) are adjusted
to 91.0%, as follows: AdjRun = .times. ( ( .621 - .4779 2 ) / (
.4779 - .4779 2 ) ) .times. .829 + .times. ( 1 - ( ( .621 - .4779 2
) / ( .4779 - .4779 2 ) ) ) .times. .829 2 = .times. .910 .times.
.times. or .times. .times. 91.0 .times. % ##EQU3##
[0100] This percentage reflects the belief that the current team is
more likely the than the average NFL team to execute a running play
in the current game situation.
[0101] At this stage, the administrator 19 may consider whether
manual adjustment of the odds is warranted (S1016). This could
occur, for example, in poor weather conditions or toward the end of
a game when the result is apparent. In the present example, the
administrator 19 has observed that the offensive team is passing
more than usual, thus he reduces the likelihood of a running play
to 88% (S1018).
[0102] Thereafter, the 88% percentage is converted to American
style odds, resulting in odds of -733.3 (S1020). Subsequently the
juice factor is applied (15% in this case) and rounding is
performed, as described previously (S1022). The resulting odds,
i.e. -845, are then displayed in the lines panel 56 of control
panel interface 50 of administrator computer 18 (FIG. 3). Assuming
the administrator 19 takes steps to post the line, the odds will
become visible in the lines panel 36 of client interface 24 of
bettor computer 22 (FIG. 2), allowing bets to be placed. Operation
1000 of FIG. 10 is thus concluded.
[0103] Depending upon the proposition and event outcome for which
odds determination is being performed, the formula that is applied
when automatic odds adjustment has been elected at S1006 to S1014
of FIG. 10 may differ. In the example embodiment, odds adjustment
is available for the following propositions/event outcomes:
1. "What will the next play be?"/Running Play
[0104] (see equation (3) above) 2. "What will the next play
be?"/Completed Pass AdjPass = ( PassAcc - LgAvgPCPct 2 LgAvgPCPct -
LgAvgPCPct 2 ) .times. ( Pass Pass + PassInc ) + ( 1 - ( PassAcc -
LgAvgPCPct 2 LgAvgPCPct - LgAvgPCPct 2 ) .times. ( LgAvgPCPct Pass
Pass + PassInc ) 2 ) .times. ( 1 - AdjRun - TO ) ( 4 ) ##EQU4##
Where: [0105] AdjPass=probability of a completed pass after odds
adjustment [0106] PassAcc=pass accuracy adjustment factor
determined at the discretion of the administrator using
team-specific historical pass completion percentages as a guide
line (Pass Completion Percentage=Number of Complete Passes/Number
of Pass Attempts) [0107] LgAvgPCPct=league-average pass completion
"percentage" (actually expressed as a probability) [0108]
Pass=probability of a completed pass (i.e. precompiled default
odds) in the current game situation, before odds adjustment [0109]
PassInc=probability of an incomplete pass (i.e. precompiled default
odds) in the current game situation [0110] AdjRun=probability of a
running play after odds adjustment [0111] TO=probability of a
turnover (i.e. precompiled default odds) in the current game
situation
[0112] Per equation (4), the ratio between "Pass Complete" and
"Pass Incomplete" is adjusted using a quadratic equation having the
same structure as equation (1) above.
3. "What will the next play be?"/Pass Incomplete
AdjPassInc=1-AdjRun-TO-AdjPass; (5) Where: [0113]
AdjPassInc=probability of a incomplete pass after odds adjustment
[0114] AdjRun=probability of a running play after odds adjustment
[0115] TO=probability of a turnover (i.e. precompiled default odds)
in the current game situation [0116] AdjPass=probability of a
completed pass after odds adjustment
[0117] Equation (5) requires adjusted odds for the probability of
running play and the probability of a completed pass to be computed
in order for the adjusted odds for an incomplete pass to be
computed. The precompiled default odds for a turnover are used in
unadjusted form because no odds adjustment is available for the
"turnover" outcome in the present embodiment. 4. "Will the
[offensive team] get a first down on this series of downs?"/Yes
AdjFdY = ( ( 0.5287 + ( 0.0671 .times. ( Score - LvgAvgNTdPts )
LgAvgTdPts ) - 0.00364 .times. ( ( Score - LgAvgDr ) LgAvgTdPts ) 2
) - LgAvgFdPct 2 LgAvgFdPct - LgAvgTdPts 2 ) .times. FdY + ( 1 - (
( 0.5287 + ( 0.0671 .times. ( Score - LvgAvgNTdPts ) LgAvgTdPts ) -
0.00364 .times. ( ( Score - LgAvgDr ) LgAvgTdPts ) 2 ) - LgAvgFdPct
2 LgAvgFdPct - LgAvgTdPts 2 ) ) .times. FdY 2 ( 6 ) ##EQU5## Where:
[0118] AdjFdY=probability of a first down in the current game
situation after odds adjustment [0119] Fdy=probability of no first
down (i.e. precompiled default odds) in the current game situation
[0120] Score=projected score for team of interest [0121]
LgAvgNTdPts=league-average non-offensive touchdown points per game
[0122] LgAvgDr=league-average drives per game [0123]
LgAvgTdPts=league-average points per touchdown [0124]
LgAvgFdPct=league-average first down percentage (expressed as a
probability)
[0125] Equation (6) accounts for a team's projected first down
percentage relative to the league average. The "B" factor in
equation (6) above is the team-specific first down percentage,
which is derived from the team's projected score. A team's
projected first down percentage is determined by curve fitting data
of all of the league's teams' historical first down percentages for
the past N seasons and offensive touchdowns per game (where N is an
integer) to a quadratic equation by determining the lowest sum of
squared absolute errors. The numeric coefficients of equation (6)
were determined by curve fitting to the sum of the least squares
between data points. The data points are derived from historical
team-specific statistics for first down percentage and offensive
touchdowns per game. The projected score may be computed by
subtracting a team's spread from the points expected to be scored
by both teams in total (over/under) and then dividing the result by
two. The latter two factors may for example be based on the spread
and total points being offered by sportbooks on the game.
5. "Will the [offensive team] get a first down on this series of
downs?"/No AdjFdN=1-AdjFdY (7) Where: [0126] AdjFdN=probability of
no first down in the current game situation after odds adjustment
[0127] AdjFdY=probability of a first down in the current game
situation after odds adjustment 6. "What will the [offensive team]
do on this drive?"/Touchdown AdjTd = ( ( Score - LgAvgNtdPts
LgAvgDr LgAvgTdPts ) - LgAvgTd 2 ( LgAvgTd - LgAvgTd 2 ) ) .times.
Td + ( 1 - ( ( Score - LgAvgNtdPts LgAvgDr LgAvgTdPts ) - LgAvgTd 2
( LgAvgTd - LgAvgTd 2 ) ) ) .times. Td 2 ( 8 ) ##EQU6## Where:
[0128] AdjTd=probability of a touchdown for this drive in the
current game situation after odds adjustment [0129] Score=projected
score for team of interest [0130] LgAvgNTdPts=league-average
non-offensive touchdown points per game [0131]
LgAvgDr=league-average drives per game [0132]
LgAvgTdPts=league-average points per touchdown [0133]
LgAvgTd=league-average offensive touchdowns per drive [0134]
Td=probability of a touchdown for this drive in the current game
situation (i.e. precompiled default odds)
[0135] Equation (8) accounts for a team's projected offensive
touchdowns per drive relative to the league average.
7. "What will the [offensive team] do on this drive?"/No Score
AdjNS=1-AdjTd-FG (9) Where: [0136] AdjNS=probability of no score
for this drive in the current game situation after odds adjustment
[0137] AdjTd=probability of a touchdown for this drive in the
current game situation after odds adjustment [0138] FG=probability
of field goal for this drive in the in the current game
situation
[0139] For the remaining propositions/outcomes that are set forth
above in Table 1, no automatic odds adjustment is available.
[0140] Odds adjustment formulae may be used for adjusting odds
associated with event outcomes for other sports. For example, in
basketball the following equation (10) may be used for the
proposition "Which team will get the next 3-point field goal?":
Adnx .times. .times. 3 = 3 .times. pm opp .times. .times. 3 .times.
pa ( 3 .times. pm opp .times. .times. 3 .times. pa ) + ( 3 .times.
pa opp .times. .times. 3 .times. pm ) ( 10 ) ##EQU7## Where: [0141]
Adnx3=the probability that a team will get the next 3-point field
goal, after odds adjustment [0142] 3pm=a team's 3-point field goals
made per game [0143] 3pa=a team's 3-point field goals allowed per
game [0144] opp3pm=the opposing team's 3-point field goals made per
game [0145] opp3pa=the opposing team's 3-point field goals allowed
per game
[0146] It is noted that, in this case, the odds adjustment equation
(10) does not conform to equation (1) above. The term "3-point
field goals allowed" refers to the amount of 3-point field goals
given up against all opposing teams per game.
[0147] As should now be appreciated, the manner of determining odds
described above allows odds determination to be performed quickly,
due to the used of precompiled default odds which are quickly
retrievable based on current values of dynamic contest parameters.
As well, when it is desired to adjust the odds to incorporate
team-specific deviations from league averages, odds determination
may be expedited due to the automatic application of odds
adjustment formulae whose team-specific factors have been
previously entered.
[0148] As will be appreciated by those skilled in the art,
modifications to the above-described embodiment can be made without
departing from the essence of the invention. For example, although
the above-described embodiment pertained to odds determination in
the context of an American football game, the same odds
determination technique could be used for event outcomes for other
types of sport, such as individual participant sports (e.g. golf or
tennis), or for contests other than sporting contests, such as
elections for example.
[0149] The above described embodiment refers to the use of "dynamic
contest parameters" to perform table lookups of situation-specific
likelihood data. It should be appreciated that the term "dynamic
contest parameters" is not necessarily limited to parameters which
are traditionally displayed on scoreboards. For example, parameters
such as weather conditions or degrees of player injuries could form
the basis of situation-specific likelihood data lookups.
[0150] The above-described embodiment also employs the term
"league-average". This term should not be understood to necessarily
connote an averaging calculation. Some embodiments may for example
employ a median determination.
[0151] For the sake of simplicity, odds adjustment calculations may
take the form of a straight multiplier rather than a quadratic
equation as previously described. For example, if a specific
football team is known to be 30% more likely to run than the league
average of 40%, the league average may be adjusted by multiplying
it by 130%, to arrive at a team-specific likelihood of 52%. This
type of odds adjustment may be advantageous in its simplicity;
however it may not always produce acceptable results. For example,
when the likelihood of an event outcome for the league overall is
high, multiplication by a scalar may cause the resultant
team-specific likelihood to exceed 100%--a statistical
impossibility.
[0152] It is not necessary to employ situation IDs for uniquely
identifying game situations. In alternative embodiments, current
parameter values of dynamic contest parameters may be used directly
to access tables in which situation-specific league statistics are
stored. The statistics may take the form of multi-dimensional
tables.
[0153] Precompiled default odds may be generated for a sport and
league by examining historical records of any number of past
seasons. For contests which do not have annually occurring seasons
(e.g. Olympic competitions or political elections), a "season" may
refer to an interval between contests (or between logical contest
groupings). Intervals could be larger than a year or smaller than a
year.
[0154] It will also be appreciated that database 16 need not
necessarily be a SQL server database or even a relational database.
Other forms of data stores for the various types of data associated
with the electronic wagering system 10 described above could be
employed. The alternative data stores need not necessarily be in
same location as bet server 14.
[0155] The situation-specific league statistics 218 (FIG. 6) need
not necessarily constitute a set of separate database tables where
each table is associated with a different event. A single lookup
table could be employed for all event outcomes. In such a table,
different event outcomes could be identified by their outcome
IDs.
[0156] Bet server 14, broadcast server 26, bettor computer 22 and
administrator computer 18 are not necessarily servers and computers
in the traditional sense. Various forms of computing devices having
processors in communication with memory capable of storing machine
executable code and displays capable of displaying a user
interface, such as laptop computers, tablet computers, or personal
digital assistants for example, could be employed, provided that
they are capable of operation in the manner described above.
[0157] Numerous further modifications and variations of the present
invention are possible in light of the above teachings. It is
therefore to be understood that within the scope of the appended
claims, the invention may be practiced otherwise than as
specifically described herein.
* * * * *
References