U.S. patent application number 10/740201 was filed with the patent office on 2004-07-15 for linked information system.
Invention is credited to Banker, Shailen V..
Application Number | 20040139077 10/740201 |
Document ID | / |
Family ID | 33434866 |
Filed Date | 2004-07-15 |
United States Patent
Application |
20040139077 |
Kind Code |
A1 |
Banker, Shailen V. |
July 15, 2004 |
Linked information system
Abstract
A linked information system employing evolutionary media content
links is provided. In another aspect of the present invention, a
media content distribution system includes selected media content
accessible to remotely located users in an electronic format over a
computer network. A further aspect of the present invention selects
media content during the course of a human analysis based on
relevance to tracked topics.
Inventors: |
Banker, Shailen V.;
(Dearborn, MI) |
Correspondence
Address: |
HARNESS, DICKEY & PIERCE, P.L.C.
P.O. BOX 828
BLOOMFIELD HILLS
MI
48303
US
|
Family ID: |
33434866 |
Appl. No.: |
10/740201 |
Filed: |
December 18, 2003 |
Related U.S. Patent Documents
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Application
Number |
Filing Date |
Patent Number |
|
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60434863 |
Dec 20, 2002 |
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Current U.S.
Class: |
1/1 ;
707/999.01 |
Current CPC
Class: |
G06Q 30/0283 20130101;
G06Q 10/10 20130101; G06F 16/958 20190101 |
Class at
Publication: |
707/010 |
International
Class: |
G06F 017/30 |
Claims
What is claimed is:
1. A media content distribution system, comprising: a computer
network having a source and remote users; selected media content
accessible to the users in an electronic format over the computer
network, the selected media content being selected through human
analysis at the source based on content and relevance to tracked
topics; the source linking the selected media content to track
trends developing between different originating creators of the
media content; and a distribution module operably using the
computer network to distribute the media content to the users over
the computer network based on the topic selection, wherein the
human analysis constantly incorporates new information as it
becomes available, and the selected media content and links between
information therein are adjusted in an evolutionary manner
depending upon additional receipt of media content and further
subsequent human analysis.
2. The system of claim 1, wherein the links between information
includes hyperlinks to media content, the hyperlinks organized
according to importance to at least one of a tracked topic and
other media content.
3. The system of claim 1, wherein the links between information
includes markup of the selected media content communicating
relevance of the contained information in an organizational
context.
4. The system of claim 1, wherein the links between information are
operable to identify selected media content according to an
organization reflecting internal dynamics of related information as
identified during the course of the human analysis.
5. The system of claim 1, wherein the human analysis incorporates
feedback from the user to adjust the selection of the selected
media content and the links between information.
6. The system of claim 1 comprising an expert link supplementing
the selected media content and accessible to the user over the
computer network.
7. The system of claim 1 comprising a plurality of user discussion
forums organized according to the tracked topics and accessible to
the user over the computer network.
8. The system of claim 1 comprising a user database operable to
store recognized selections of tracked topics by a user as user
preferences, and operable to store user email information.
9. The system of claim 1 comprising: a user database operable to
store recognized selections of tracked topics by a user as user
preferences, and operable to store user email information; and an
email generator operable to generate an email based on the user
preferences and additions to the links between information over a
given amount of time.
10. The system of claim 1, wherein the links between information
are operable to identify selected media content according to an
organization reflecting an identification of internal dynamics
relating to the selected information, wherein the identification
occurs as a result of the human analysis.
11. The system of claim 1, wherein the selected media content is
selected based on its relevance to tracked topics relating to the
field of economics.
12. Computer software comprising: a browsable datastore of
information content; first programmed instructions linking the
content based at least in part on subject topics, wherein links are
based on relevance of some content to other content display
instructions adapted to communicate content and links to a user;
and second programmed instructions allowing the links to be revised
as the content is added.
13. The software of claim 12, comprising a rolling topic management
module adapted to hibernate topics and revive topics based on
relevance of the topics to current events.
14. The software of claim 12, comprising: a survey results display
module adapted to present topically organized information to users
in combination with an interpretation of the information and an
invitation to provide feedback relating to the interpretation of
the information; and an input receptive of user feedback, wherein
the survey results display module is adapted to present the user
feedback and an adjusted interpretation of the information based on
the user feedback.
15. The software of claim 12, wherein said browsable datastore
includes topics relating to economy and business markets,
behavioral aspects, and an external view of countries and
regions.
16. The software of claim 12, wherein the display module includes:
a plurality of active windows visually configured to convey a
relationship between risk and opportunity, wherein a visual
configuration of the plurality of active windows form a spectrum
defined with low risk and high opportunity at substantially one
end, and high risk and low opportunity at substantially another
end; and a plurality of subtopics visually populating the plurality
of active windows, wherein the plurality of subtopics relate to the
topic of the visual display.
17. The software of claim 12, comprising an output adapted to
communicate markup of information contents indicating relevance of
the information content to at least one of a topic organizing the
information content and other information content.
18. A method of selecting media content, comprising: tracking news
themes over time for their impact; continually receiving new media
content containing information; selecting media content containing
information relevant to the tracked themes; following the
information relevant to the tracked themes in detail over time to
determine internal dynamics of the information; setting new
hypotheses for evolving information based on the determined
internal dynamics; and selecting media content containing
information relevant to the new hypotheses.
19. The method of claim 18 comprising developing links between
selected media content based on relevance of the contained
information to the new hypotheses.
20. The method of claim 18 comprising redeveloping links between
selected media content based on a human analysis of relevance of
the contained information to the new hypotheses.
21. The method of claim 18, wherein following the information
relevant to the tracked themes in detail over time to determine
dynamics of the information comprises determining underlying
dynamics of the information.
22. The method of claim 18, wherein following the information
relevant to the tracked themes in detail over time to determine
dynamics of the information comprises determining how the
information changes over time.
23. The method of claim 18, wherein following the information
relevant to the tracked themes in detail over time to determine
dynamics of the information comprises determining metamorphosing
dynamics of the information.
24. The method of claim 18, wherein following the information
relevant to the tracked themes in detail over time to determine
dynamics of the information comprises determining concealed
dynamics of the information.
25. The method of claim 18 comprising evaluating the new hypotheses
over time in light of continually new information relevant to the
new hypotheses.
26. The method of claim 18, comprising grouping media content based
on relevance of the contained information.
27. The method of claim 26, comprising regrouping media content
over time based on a human analysis of relevance of the contained
information.
28. The method of claim 18, comprising developing links between
selected media content based on relevance of the contained
information.
29. The method of claim 28, comprising redeveloping links between
selected media content over time based on a human analysis of
relevance of the contained information.
30. The method of claim 18, comprising marking up key portions of
selected media content based on relevance of the contained
information.
31. The method of claim 30, comprising developing links between
selected media content based on the marked-up portions of the
selected media content.
32. The method of claim 30, comprising deselecting media content
over time based on newly deemed irrelevance of the contained
information resulting from a human analysis of the information.
33. The method of claim 18 comprising adjusting information of
selected media contents for skewed effects.
34. A method of cross-linking news reports comprising: establishing
first level linkages between news reports and identified topics
corresponding to themes; creating at least second level linkages
based on issues related to the media content based on internal
dynamics of information contained in the media content; and
reconfiguring the first and second level linkages based on newly
evolving information and insights.
35. The method of claim 34, wherein the reconfiguring occurs over
time based on a human analysis of newly received information.
36. The method of claim 35, wherein the newly received information
includes newly defined topics.
37. The method of claim 36, wherein the newly defined topics
correspond to hypotheses developed in the course of tracking
information over time.
38. The method of claim 35, wherein the newly received information
includes new media content.
39. The method of claim 35, wherein the newly received information
includes user feedback.
40. A method of analyzing information in real time, comprising:
continually receiving media content comprising the information;
developing a footprint trail by selecting information based on
relevance of the information to subjects of study, and by linking
information to information based on internal dynamics of the
information; and using the footprint trail to predict trends
relating to the subjects of study.
41. The method of claim 40, comprising identifying big shifts in a
series of interrelated events of a footprint trail that radically
change key parameters of a situation.
42. The method of claim 41, comprising exposing the identified big
shifts to instigate redefinition of parameters and development of
new strategies for new situations.
43. The method of claim 40, wherein the foot print trail
corresponds to selected portions of interrelated information and
links between the selected portions that accurately communicate how
the selected portions of information are interrelated.
Description
CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS
[0001] This application claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional
Application No. 60/434,863, filed on Dec. 20, 2002. The disclosure
of the above application is incorporated herein by reference in its
entirety.
FIELD OF THE INVENTION
[0002] The present invention generally relates to index and
retrieval systems, and particularly relates to linked knowledge and
information and media content distribution systems between remote
communication sites.
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
[0003] The development of computer systems in general, and the
development and expansion of the Internet in particular, has led to
many developments in information index and retrieval systems and
media content distribution systems. The phrase media content is
defined as third party sources that exist independently of this
invention, including television, radio, Internet information, print
information, print media, professional Journals, expert
seminars/presentations, and research. For example, Internet web
browsers typically accept user input, perform a search of all media
content on the Internet based on a comparison between keywords
extracted from the user input and identifying tags associated with
the media content, and return hyperlinks to the media content in an
order of relevance determined based on a number of successful
matches between the user input and the identifying tags. Also,
index and retrieval systems of databases and/or cataloging systems
typically accept user input, and perform a search of user-specified
database(s) or sections thereof based on a comparison between
keywords extracted from the user input and text of user-specified
sections of media content and/or user-specified sections of media
content identification information. These index and retrieval
systems typically return hyperlinks to media content and/or
identification information directing a user to the media content
and/or a source of the media content. The aforementioned and
related index and retrieval systems and media content distribution
systems, however, have limitations that burden the user.
[0004] Chief among the limitations of the aforementioned and
related index and retrieval systems is the vast amount of the media
content addressed by these systems and consequent difficulty with
focusing a search. This limitation leads to information overload.
For example, a user browsing the Internet for information on a
particular topic relating to a complex field of study encounters
difficulty in eliminating media content unrelated to the topic
and/or field of study without also eliminating some media content
related to the topic and/or field of study. Also, the user browsing
the Internet has difficulty eliminating media content of low
relevance to the topic or field of study respective to other media
content relevant to the topic or field of study. Further, the user
browsing the Internet has no option available for eliminating media
content of low quality from the search. Finally, even a searcher of
a more narrowly focused database encounters these same difficulties
due to the fact that portions of the media content are, with few
exceptions, generally treated as of equal value within the more
narrow focus of the database. The aforementioned difficulties are
further exacerbated by additional limitations.
[0005] An additional limitation of primary concern is the general
lack of identified relationships between media content, and
deficiency among a few notable exceptions to both maintain quality
of media content and indicate a degree of relevance of media
content to a topic of interest and/or other media content. This
lack of identified relationships is true for print and electronic
media. Among proprietary legal databases, for example, Westlaw's
Key Cite/Key Number and Lexis/Nexis's Shepherd's Citations features
succeed in indicating relevance and irrelevance of case law to a
predefined legal issue and/or other case law. These features fail,
however, to select media content based on both quality and
relevance, and the result is inclusion of case law cited to other
case law that is of low quality and/or entirely irrelevant. Also,
the indicated relevance and irrelevance are primarily applied to
differentiate cites that are relevant from those that are
irrelevant. Further, even where relative degrees of relevance are
employed, such as Westlaw's depth of treatment stars, these degrees
of relevance merely indicate how one case was treated in another
case (mentioned, cited, discussed, or upheld). Thus, these and
similar relative degrees of relevance indicators fail to operate to
accurately indicate importance of one case to another. Still
further, these and similar relative degree of relevance indicators
are significantly based on preexisting citation of one case to
another, and do not generally incorporate a correlation between
related portions of media content based on a logical analysis of
the media content that identifies underlying dynamics even where
preexisting citations do not exist. Finally, previous linked
information systems fail to continuously receive new media content,
add it to the system, and use a real time analysis to identify
internal dynamics of the information and reevaluate, reselect, and
reorganize previously selected information of the system in real
time. Internal dynamics is defined as the underlying dynamics of
intelligent streams of information that carry meaning at many
levels, and which are continuously changing, evolving, and being
shaped by the flow of events and/or new insights/discoveries.
[0006] The need remains for a media content distribution system
that ensures quality and relevance of media content while
facilitating user access to desired media content. A solution is
required that accurately identifies relevance of media content to
topics of interest and to other media content based on a real time
analysis of continuously received media content, and organizes the
currently relevant information in a manner accessible to users by
providing links to information based on the relevance and internal
dynamics identified in real time. The present invention provides
such a solution.
SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
[0007] According to the present invention, a linked information
system employing evolutionary media content links is provided. In
another aspect of the present invention, a media content
distribution system includes selected media content accessible to
remotely located users in an electronic format over a computer
network. A further aspect of the present invention selects media
content during the course of a human analysis based on relevance to
tracked topics. In still another aspect of the present invention,
linking of information is operable to identify selected media
content according to an organization reflecting relevance of
contained information to the tracked topics and to other media
content as determined during the course of the human analysis. Yet
a further aspect of the present invention employs a distribution
module receptive of a topic selection by a user over the computer
network and operable to distribute the linking of information to
the user over the computer network based on the topic selection.
Another aspect of the present invention provides a human analysis
that continuously takes place over time to incorporate newly
received information and determine change in meaning of previously
selected information, and the selected media content and
organization information are adjusted based on results of the human
analysis.
[0008] The present invention is advantageous over previous media
content distribution systems because it works with information in
real time, at a point in time, to help decision makers. It also
provides a footprint trail (how particular information has
developed up to a current point in time) for clues to future
development. It further works with information, constantly
improving and updating, and provides multiple enriched pieces of
information with first, second, and additional level linkages for
depth and to assist in identifying trends as pieced together from
many, varied sources of information. It still further provides
linkages with experts and dissemination of the information, thus
providing a seamless link of experts with detailed information. It
still further allows a user to get the big picture quickly and
explore in depth using first, second, and additional level
linkages. Thus, a user can go back and forth between the big
picture and an in depth view with a few clicks or keystrokes. Still
further, it provides information in an order of importance based on
groups of users (not individuals) polled. It is market driven for
business and government decision making and automatically
reprioritizes information presented for expert comments and initial
presentation. It still further has applications in many subject
areas, including economics, business, finance, general law,
medicine, and technical research. Finally, it aptly couples an
artificial agent with a human agent for superior information
analysis and handling capability capitalizing on strengths of each
agent. It does not rely on artificial agents (computer and software
based) to do the work where they are weak, as with detecting
internal dynamics and identifying trends within many varied sources
of information.
[0009] The preferred embodiment of the present invention is
particularly designed to be useful in the filed of business and
economics. The field of business and economics is defined broadly
as both domestic and international, and relating to business,
politics, law, economics, political economy, and all other related
fields and information to assist business decision makers in seeing
the totality of the picture of events. Further areas of
applicability of the present invention will become apparent from
the detailed description and appended claims provided hereinafter.
It should be understood that the detailed description and specific
examples, while indicating the preferred embodiment of the
invention, are intended for purposes of illustration only and are
not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0010] The present invention will become more fully understood from
the detailed description and the accompanying drawings,
wherein:
[0011] FIG. 1A is a flow diagram depicting how this invention
provides solutions to problems currently unsolved in the
distribution of information over media content distribution systems
by using a Decision Maker's Model;
[0012] FIG. 1B is a flow diagram depicting an overview of the
processes of the present invention;
[0013] FIG. 1C is a flow diagram depicting a overview of the Linked
Information System, showing its Information Processing features,
the Software architecture, and the relation to the outside world of
Information sources, users and experts;
[0014] FIG. 1D is a flow diagram depicting organization,
distribution, and reorganization of media content in response to
changes over time according to the present invention;
[0015] FIG. 2 is a block schematic and information flow diagram
depicting the feedback-based, organization and reorganization of
media content in real time according to the present invention;
[0016] FIG. 3 is a partial perspective view depicting relational
interface functionality of a media content distribution system
according to the present invention;
[0017] FIG. 4 is a block diagram depicting an editor interface
system for a media content distribution system according to the
present invention;
[0018] FIG. 5 is a block diagram depicting interrelated data
objects for use with a media content distribution system according
to the present invention;
[0019] FIG. 6 is a block diagram depicting access and retrieval of
data objects using a media content distribution system according to
the present invention;
[0020] FIG. 7 is a screenshot of a user interface of a media
content distribution system according to the present invention;
[0021] FIG. 8 is a partial perspective, block diagram depicting use
of a markup overlay file with markup viewing software to generate a
marked up file from a retrieved file;
[0022] FIG. 9 is a schematic block diagram depicting selective
citation options for media content of various types of
availability, with incorporation of automatic reorganization of
organized media contents;
[0023] FIG. 10 is a flow diagram depicting a method of selectively
distributing media content based on availability of the media
content;
[0024] FIG. 11 is schematic block and flow diagram depiction server
side operation for a media content distribution system according to
the present invention;
[0025] FIG. 12 is a partial perspective block diagram depicting
email distribution features of a media content distribution system
according to the present invention;
[0026] FIGS. 13 and 14 are flow diagrams depicting development of
information according to the present invention;
[0027] FIGS. 15 and 16 are flow diagrams depicting distribution of
information according to the present invention;
[0028] FIG. 17 is a flow diagram depicting a method of forcing
discussion by grouping opinion according to the present
invention;
[0029] FIGS. 18A and 18B are flow diagrams depicting a method of
compensating for skewed effects according to the present
invention;
[0030] FIG. 19 is a flow diagram depicting a method of selecting
sources of information and issues, questions, and decisions;
[0031] FIG. 20 is a flow diagram depicting how a subset of the
total list of information sources is chosen using set criteria;
[0032] FIG. 21 is a flow diagram depicting how the selection of
information according to the present invention works as a real time
dynamic process;
[0033] FIG. 22 is a bar graph showing hypothetical frequency of
access for information on each question/issue shown therein for
users in the group of economists, bankers, policy planners in
corporations, and government;
[0034] FIG. 23 is a flow diagram depicting a method of identifying
internal dynamics according to the present invention;
[0035] FIG. 24 is a flow diagram depicting a process of identifying
and reacting to big shifts in an information stream;
[0036] FIG. 25 is a flow diagram depicting how the linkage with
experts who directly interact with the site is provided according
to the present invention;
[0037] FIG. 26 is a flow diagram depicting how selected information
is disseminated, and how a peer site for user exchange operates
according to the present invention;
[0038] FIG. 27 is a flow diagram depicting coupling of a human
agent with an artificial agent according to the present
invention;
[0039] FIG. 28 is a flow diagram depicting the existing method of
meeting information needs through key word search in contrast with
the present invention;
[0040] FIG. 29 is a flow diagram depicting a method for tackling
information overload according to the present invention;
[0041] FIG. 30 is a flow diagram depicting selected information as
viewed by subscribers according to the present invention;
[0042] FIG. 31 is a flow diagram depicting pricing and billing
arrangements according to the present invention;
[0043] FIG. 32 is a flow diagram depicting dissemination of
information according to the present invention;
[0044] FIG. 33 is a flow diagram depicting interactive features of
information dissemination according to the present invention;
[0045] FIG. 34A is a flow diagram depicting generation of an index
and report on the behavioral aspect of the markets is generated
according to the present invention;
[0046] FIG. 34B is a graphical chart depicting construction of a
hypothetical Point Index for behavioral aspects of markets
according to the present invention;
[0047] FIG. 35 is a flow diagram depicting email distribution of a
newsletter according to the present invention;
[0048] FIG. 36 is a flow diagram depicting formulation and
validation of hypotheses through tracking of information according
to the present invention; and
[0049] FIG. 37 is a block diagram depicting visual display of a
progressive organization framework according to the present
invention;
[0050] FIG. 38 is a flow diagram depicting a method of operation
for a graphic user interface according to the present
invention;
[0051] FIGS. 39-42 are block diagrams depicting various progressive
organization frameworks according to the present invention;
[0052] FIG. 43 is a block diagram depicting simultaneous layered
display of topically inter-related organizational frameworks
according to the present invention;
[0053] FIG. 44 is a flow diagram depicting development of the
Initial Index, the User Index and the Expert Index, and the
Response and Feedback Loops between the Originator of the Index and
the Users and the Experts;
[0054] FIG. 45 is a flow diagram depicting how the User Index and
the Expert Index are developed in parallel after the Initial Index
is completed; and
[0055] FIG. 46 is a flow diagram depicting the Simulation feature
of the Index for all Users and Experts.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENT
[0056] At this time information sourced through a search word or
phrase is the primary way of accessing information from such
sources as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, and this
has problems of turning up a huge number of items with some of the
material even unrelated to the search word. For instance a search
for "U.S. Budget Deficits" on Nov. 20, 2003, turned up 996 entries
on the New York Times site all presented without any order of
importance and including many unrelated items on Bolivia, China
trade, Colombia, Italy etc. This puts a heavy tax on a educated
user's or decisionmaker's time as well as expense. In addition to
this searches for media content such as Wall Street Journal's
Factiva search employ 8,000 sources many of which may be redundant
or of relatively low quality, and only clutter and muddy up the
results.
[0057] With the present invention as shown in FIG. 1A critical
information is provided at step 5000 first and in the forefront by
priority. Lower quality information is cleared, to provide what
educated users and decision makers can like to see. The
opportunities of new medium such as the Internet are captured at
step 5002 by exploiting all the possibilities of accessing
information at step 5004, structuring information 5006, and
layering information 5008. The Single Glance Display Mechanisms
offer solutions to exploit the layering information possibilities
at step 5010. The Multilevel Linkages offer solutions to in depth
and richer ways of accessing information at step 5012. The Pareto
principle and Decision Maker's model structure for information
offer solutions for structuring information at step 5014 to best
exploit all the structural possibilities of new medium. Confidence
Index is another mechanism for structuring information at step 5016
for ease of decisionmaking. The Single Glance Display mechanism
offers solution to information problem for decisionmakers by
combining and fully utilizing all three accessing, structuring and
layering possibilities of the information at step 5018.
[0058] FIG. 1B shows the Information Processing features 6000 in
the upper half of the diagram after information selection has
occurred, and Interactive and Feedback Features 6002 in the lower
half for inventions and applications such as the Single Glance
Display Mechanism and the Confidence Index. Information is selected
at one point in step 6004, and is then processed for information
streams, tracked themes, and footprint trail at step 6006. It is
further processed for Internal Dynamics--underlying dynamics,
metamorphosing and concealed dynamics at step 6008. Also determined
at step 6008 are the first, second and third level linkages between
different pieces of information. On the lower half of the diagram,
the information is structured in the form of Single Glance Display
Mechanisms, whereby the user obtains bibliographic information,
assumptions for hypotheses and expert opinion at step 6010 by
clicking on a risk/opportunity box. This information is distributed
to users and experts at step 6012 who provide feedback and who also
share the information on peer sites at step 6014. More information
on the direction of a trend is obtained by clicking on an arrow on
the boxes at step 6016. The bottom portion of the diagram shows
structuring of information further accomplished by the Confidence
Index at step 6018. The Interactive and Feedback Features on the
lower right of the diagram are further enhanced by providing a
Simulation feature for Users and for Experts, through a Simulation
Sheet on which Users and Experts input changes to obtain new
results for a customized perspective at step 6020. This can be
shared and compared with peers for discussion.
[0059] FIG. 1C is a flow diagram depicting on the right side of the
diagram the Content Originator for Information Processing 7000
working within the framework of the Software Architecture 7002. The
Software Architecture 7002 provides the storage/retrieval, markup
files, transmission, user and expert interfaces and email
generator. The Information Processing includes processing at
several levels starting with Information manipulation for Internal
Dynamics at step 7004, the first, second and third level linkages
of information. The next level is Information Architecture at step
7006, with Footprint Trails, Rolling Topics Index etc. This
proceeds at step 7008 in the flow diagram to Information Schematics
and Display with critical information shown on Risk/Opportunity
displays. This proceeds further to the graphic interface at step
7010 with user and expert which includes pareto topics for users
and simulation features for users and experts. Outside of this on
the left side of the diagram is the external world of Information
by source for Country or Region at step 7012 and the Users and
Experts at step 7014.
[0060] The invention is further described below in the form of a
media content distribution system that provides organized (linked)
cites to users for retrieving media content in electronic form over
a remotely located user communications network, preferably the
Internet. In particular, the preferred embodiment is engineered to
function in view of current Internet protocols, with a novel
implementation of existing object code, and with electronic files
in the well known Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML) format. The
following description of the preferred embodiment is merely
exemplary in nature and is in no way intended to limit the
invention, its application, or uses.
[0061] According to the present invention and as detailed in FIG.
1D, a human editor receives media content 102 that is initially
unorganized as at 100A. An example of media content 102 corresponds
to several news articles A, B, and C containing information
relating to a field of study, such as economics. The editor
performs a logical and intuitive analysis of these articles to
select media content for quality and relevance to the field of
study, to organize (group by category/topic and develop internal
links) the media content based on the analysis, and make the
organized media content available to users and experts in
electronic form by storing organizational information 104 in a
networked server system as at 106A and, optionally, some or all of
media content 102 as well. Organizational information 104 and,
optionally, media content 102 is then distributed to users 108A and
B on remote client systems.
[0062] As an example of organization of media content according to
the present invention, consider organization of three articles of
similar publishing date, wherein the first article points out the
relative impact of trucking prices on particular areas of industry,
the second article points out dependency of trucking fees on oil
prices, and the third article pertains to rising oil prices. In
this case, organization according to the present invention of the
three articles includes a link between the first article and the
second article, wherein the link points out relevance of the second
article to the first article. Further, organization according to
the present invention of the three articles includes a link between
the second article and the third article, wherein the link points
out relevance of the third article to the second article. If the
above case is extended to an example wherein a tracked topic
relates to investment prospects in a particular area of industry,
and the particular area of industry is mentioned in the first
article, then organization of the media content according to the
present invention includes a link between the tracked topic and the
first article, wherein the link indicates relevance of the first
article to the tracked topic. As a result of this linking, a
footprint trail is developed that leads users interested in the
tracked topic to the first second, and third articles. In other
cases where the logical reasoning behind relevance of articles to
one another is not so readily apparent, the organization includes
markup of relevant portions of article contents and, preferably,
links directly to the marked-up portions of the articles. Comments
can also be added, if necessary, to assist users in understanding
relationships between selected and linked information within a
particular context.
[0063] Further according to the present invention, users and,
optionally, experts review the media content using the
organizational information and supplement the media content 102
with user and/or expert feedback. The supplemented media content
110 contains the originally selected articles, expert comments,
user feedback, and/or additional, new articles 109. The editor
receives the supplemented media content 110 as at 100B and performs
a logical and intuitive analysis in view of the supplementation and
changes in impact of information over time such as internal
dynamics 111. The logical analysis is able to determine importance
of information and impact of the information on other information
in real time, thus identifying new topics and relationships and
spotting trends. The editor reselects and reorganizes (regroups and
relinks) the media content 110 based on the results of the logical
and intuitive analysis and adds first and second level linkages.
The editor then makes the reorganized media content available to
users and experts in electronic form by storing the adjusted
organizational information 104 in a networked server system 106 as
at 106b and, optionally, some or all of the supplemented media
content 110 as well. The adjusted organizational information 112
and, optionally, media content 110 is further distributed to users
108, and real time reselection and reorganization of media content
continues to take place according to the present invention.
[0064] The feedback-based, organization and reorganization of media
content in real time according to the present invention is explored
in greater detail with reference to FIG. 2. Therein, unorganized
media content 102 is continuously received and incorporated into an
ongoing logical and intuitive analysis 104. The logical and
intuitive analysis is used to generate organized media content 202
that is communicated to experts 204 in a related field of study.
The experts provide expert feedback 206 which can be directly
incorporated into the ongoing logical and intuitive analysis 200
and/or used to supplement the organized media content 202 to
generate supplemented, organized media content 110. The
supplemented, organized media content 110 is communicated to users
108, which provide user feedback 208 that is incorporated into the
ongoing logical and intuitive analysis 200. The supplemented,
organized media content 110 is also incorporated into the ongoing
logical and intuitive analysis 200. Thus, the logical and intuitive
analysis 200 affects deselection, reselection, and reorganization
of media content in real time based on the continuously received
new, unorganized media content 102, the expert feedback 206, the
user feedback 208, and the supplemented, organized media content
110. This process continues recursively and in an evolutionary
manner to reselect, reorganize, and resupplement media content in
real time in response to newly received information from a variety
of sources. A media content distribution system according to the
present invention is able to facilitate this process and support
the organizational information structure derived by use of this
process that works with information in real time, at a point in
time, to help decision makers.
[0065] A media content distribution system according to the present
invention facilitates the real time organization and distribution
of information to users. As a result, an editor is able to use a
logical and intuitive analysis to organize information to make it
readily understandable and accessible to users, to track changes in
information and in the meaning of information over time, and to
adjust the information content and organization in real time to
reflect the tracked changes. More details on this logical and
intuitive analysis, along with techniques of expert
supplementation, trend spotting, and skew adjustment are discussed
below with reference to study in the field of economics. It should
be readily understood that the present invention is useful with
other fields of study.
[0066] Referring to FIG. 13, a method of developing information
according to the present invention starts at 1300 and proceeds to
step 1302, wherein selection of information takes place in
accordance with the Pareto principle. Therein information of
highest quality and relevance is preferentially selected over
information of relatively low quality and/or relevance. As a
result, a smaller subset of information pertaining to events and
circumstances having the greatest impact relating to the field of
study are isolated from the greater subset of information
pertaining to events of relatively low impact.
[0067] In step 1302, the important information is selected using
several sub steps. For example, sub step 1304 includes initially
selecting information based on its relevance to objective and
intuitive themes. Also, sub step 1306 selects information based on
internal dynamics of the information that become evident during
analysis (tracking) of the information over time. Types of internal
dynamics include underlying dynamics, metamorphosing dynamics, and
concealed dynamics as further described below. Further, sub step
1308 selects information based on relevance to hypotheses that are
developed during logical and intuitive analysis of information over
time, and this process is further described below. Finally, sub
step 1310 includes selecting information that presents a balanced
perspective based on its ability to balance other information that
presents a skewed perspective of exaggerated positive or negative
sentiment, thereby affecting a skew adjustment, and this process is
also further described below. Altogether, these sub steps
accomplish selection of information of high quality and
relevance.
[0068] The process by which the information is developed proceeds
from step 1302 to step 1312, wherein primary links are established.
Primary links may in one sense be thought of as links that are
obvious based on a direct impact of the information that is evident
on its face. For example, an article can claim to be relevant to a
particular question, issue, or decision in its title, opening
paragraph, and/or categorization of the article in a news source.
Further, the information reported in an article can be readily
understood to mean something without knowledge of complementary or
contradictory information. Thus, the primary link may be understood
as a categorization of the information, and directly or indirectly
linking the information to a topic (question, issue, or decision)
is one example of a primary link.
[0069] Secondary and additional links are also established in step
1312. For example, secondary links may be thought of as links that
are not obvious from the study of the information on its face.
Thus, where knowledge of an article impacts another article by
contradicting, confirming, or otherwise affecting a
reinterpretation of the article, a link developed to the other
article, or even to another category to which the other article is
primarily linked, constitutes a secondary link. Also, additional
links may be thought of as links that result from an identification
of internal dynamics of information. These links are similar to
secondary links because secondary links can also be established in
view of internal dynamics of information that are already
identified. Additional links differ from secondary links, however,
in that the link is established in response to a newly identified
internal dynamic that is made evident by the information in
question. The identification of internal dynamics is an important
part of the link establishment process.
[0070] Step 1312 includes several sub steps that include
identification of internal dynamics of information. For example,
sub step 1314 includes identifying the underlying dynamics of the
information, wherein it is acknowledged that information is
embodied in streams that carry meaning at many levels, and these
levels are delineated in real time as information is received.
Also, sub step 1316 includes identifying metamorphosing dynamics,
wherein it is acknowledged that streams of information are
constantly changing (metamorphosing). Metamorphosing dynamics
refers to these transformational changes, such that a change in
direction can be delineated in real time as information is
received. Further, sub step 1318 includes identifying concealed
dynamics that are not readily apparent. Concealed dynamics is
defined as what is not said but must be inferred. Together, these
sub steps effectively identify internal dynamics of information
concurrent with establishment of primary, secondary, and additional
linkages.
[0071] From step 1312, the process by which the information is
developed proceeds to step 1320, wherein the information stream is
followed, and sub steps are included in this process. For example,
as new information is received, a footprint trail is developed at
sub step 1322 wherein information is analyzed, selected, and linked
in relation to questions, issues, and/or decisions invoked by
previously received, selected, and linked information. This process
occurs in real time, thus ensuring that the important questions,
issues, and decisions of the day are thoroughly explored and the
information pertaining to them well developed. Also, large shifts
in information are identified in step 1324 based on a comparison of
newly received information to previously analyzed information.
Together, these sub steps effectively follow the information stream
in real time.
[0072] The real time organizational and reorganizational process
embodied in steps 1302, 1312, and 1320 is promiscuous, in that each
of the steps feeds into operation of the other step. For example,
following the information stream in step 1320 assists in
identifying internal dynamics of the information stream, and
therefore feeds into operation of steps 1312 and 1302, wherein
internal dynamics are respectively utilized for linkage and
selection of information. Also, identification of the internal
dynamics of information concurrent with the linking process impacts
selection of information and following of the information stream.
Further, selection of information directly impacts following of the
information stream and identification of internal dynamics in the
linking process.
[0073] The organization of information developed according to this
promiscuous process is capable of relating information of greatest
importance to issues, questions, and decisions of the day. Of great
importance, the organized information is not diluted by the
presence of relatively insignificant information or information
that is out of date. Of equal importance, the linked information
conveyed by the bibliographic list consistently has an organization
developed by a logical and intuitive analysis in view of the latest
available information.
[0074] Information development continues with reference to FIG. 14,
wherein an information display is developed. Steps 1404, 1406 and
1408 correspond to sub steps of step 1402 that accomplish step
1402. For example, step 1404 includes developing a bibliographic
list of the information according to the organization for each
important issue, question, and/or decision. Also, step 1406
includes providing a commentary similar to a book review that
provides a perspective on the associated question, issue, or
decision. Step 1408 includes forcing discussion by accumulating
opinions relating to the question, issue, or decision that are
expressed in the media, grouping the opinions together, and
providing a forum for users and/or experts to comment. Together,
these sub steps achieve a display of information that makes the
information easily accessible and readily understandable in an
interactive environment.
[0075] The method proceeds from step 1402 to step 1410, wherein an
expert link is developed. Steps 1412 and 1414 correspond to sub
steps of step 1410 that accomplish step 1410. In particular, step
1412 includes assembling expert resources corresponding
knowledgeable individuals that may also be well-known for their
expertise and have outstanding credentials establishing their
expertise relating to a particular question, issue, or decision. At
step 1414, an exchange is developed between experts on questions,
issues, or decisions on which they have expertise. Experts comment
on new developments and an effort is made to ensure vigorous
discussion for critical issues and questions, and to ensure that
assumptions are tested where there are critical differences. With
the information developed into an organizational structure with an
information display and expert link, the task remains to distribute
the information to users and receive feedback.
[0076] A method of distributing the developed information according
to the present invention is discussed in greater detail with
reference to FIGS. 15 and 16. Referring to FIG. 15, the expert link
is provided to users in step 1500. Related sub steps include
experts commenting on new developments in sub step 1502, and users
viewing the exchange of information between experts in sub step
1504. Thus, users may, in one example, view an online chat between
experts and, under some circumstances, pose questions. With the
expert link provided, the method proceeds to step 1506, wherein
interactive features are developed for users. Related sub steps
include providing opportunities for users to enter comments at sub
step 1508, and providing chat and/or posting capability to allow
users to exchange views at sub step 1510. With interactive features
developed at step 1506, the method proceeds to step 1512, wherein
users are incorporated into a feedback loop. Related sub steps
include providing users with the opportunity to comment on the
choice of topics at sub step 1514, and providing users the
opportunity to comment on topic content at sub step 1516. This user
feedback can be implemented in the information development process
to improve the information development.
[0077] Referring to FIG. 16, the method continues with step 1600,
wherein interactive features for the first and second level
linkages are provided; and related sub steps combine to accomplish
step 1600. For example, the user is provided easy access to the
first and second level linkages with one or two mouse clicks at sub
step 1602. Also, users are provided the ability at sub step 1604 to
easily access the full text of media content by using the linkages
as hyperlinks to electronic files containing the content. Further,
users are provided the opportunity at sub step 1606 to share
information with peers by email simply by copying and pasting
selected portions of media content into emails and/or attaching
electronic files comprising the media content, along with users'
own comments in the body of the emails. These sub steps combine to
effectively accomplish provision of interactive features to
users.
[0078] Other ways of providing information to users are also
included in the method. For example, from step 1600, the method
continues to step 1608, wherein an indexed report on behavioral
aspects of the market is regularly provided to users. Also, the
method includes periodically providing a newsletter to users with
interactive features at step 1610, as with an update email.
Additional ways of distributing the information may also be
provided.
[0079] The preferred method of providing users access to media
content has a synergistic effect as related by step 1612. Therein,
improved linkages and service motivate users to access full text of
media content using online databases that bill users based on a
number of hits, such that the greater number of hits, the lower the
cost per hit. For example, with users accessing these databases
through the hyperlinks provided by the present invention, the
users' collective buying power is accumulated and leveraged to
negotiate better prices for the users to full text access as with
sub step 1614. Also, providing users the ability to access full
text with one or two mouse clicks at sub step 1616 feeds into the
process of leveraging the users' buying power by motivating them to
generate an increased amount of hits so that a better price can be
negotiated on their behalf. The method ends at 1618.
[0080] The present invention also includes a method for forcing
discussion on issues by overcoming organizational issues relating
to expert opinions expressed in the media. Without the aid of the
present invention, users cannot keep track of all well-informed
experts' opinions on critical questions. Also, experts cannot
recall or are not aware of all others who expressed opinion on that
question. With the present invention, users and experts can see
expert opinion expressed on a critical issue at a glance. This
capability facilitates and even forces further discussion.
[0081] Referring to FIG. 17, the method of forcing discussion by
grouping opinion begins at 1700. Therein, it proceeds to step 1702
wherein an issue emerges, and a decision is made at 1704 to
identify the issue based on its significant implications.
Proceeding to step 1706, the issue is tracked in the media as
experts comment on the issue. Links developed during this tracking
process develop a footprint trail at step 1708 from which users can
retrace the development of discussion on the issue. Media expert's
opinions on the issue are extracted and grouped with corresponding
quotations at step 1710. These quotations also provide ready access
to the original article by serving as hyperlinks to electronic
files containing the articles or having hyperlinks associated
therewith as at step 1712. Proceeding to step 1714, users and
experts are given space to enter comments relating to the grouped
opinions on the Internet website of the media distribution system
according to the present invention. The method ends at 1716.
[0082] Referring to FIG. 18, a method of compensating for skewed
effects according to the present invention is discussed in greater
detail. For example, after a theoretical "bubble" in the economy
bursts, the after effect of the euphoria of expectations that the
"bubble" generated still linger. The after effects linger on in
terms of a definite skew in perceptions and expectations 1800.
There is still a residual belief in the early 24-36-48 month period
after a bubble that the economy will regain some of the luster of
the bubble years. Evidence of this effect is seen in the manner
economists consistently overestimated growth forecasts in 2001-2002
and how budget revenues were overestimated in 2001-2002. Making
this task more difficult are measurement errors and poor funding
for government forecasting agencies. For example, in July end 2002,
revised forecasts showed 3 quarters of decline in growth for 2001
instead of just one. This revision showed that productivity effects
were smaller than previously estimated.
[0083] The reverse of this skew occurs as pessimism clouds
perception on the negative side. Negative news events are viewed
with a skew in the opposite direction. Both when the skew is
negative 1802 in response to negative events 1804 and skew is
positive 1806 in response to positive events 1808, the effect is to
generate unrealistic expectations 1810A and 1810B that do not
correspond to reality. The effect of these unrealistic expectations
1810A and 1810B on business decision making is perverse. At one end
with the negative skew the effect is acceptance of status quo and
no new decision making initiative as at 1812. With positive skew
the effect is poor decision making that does not correspond to
reality and results in overexpansion and being overextended as at
1814.
[0084] The linked information system 1816 according to the present
invention helps reduce these skews to provide a balanced
perspective that corresponds more closely to realities, a balanced
perspective with awareness of risks and anticipation of events as
at 1818. The result in business decision making is realistic
proactive decision making, taking decision making initiative in a
realistic manner as at 1820. The realities taken into account are
comprehensive profits and productivity effects in the economy,
level of trust and capitalism's mechanism of operation, issue
resolution for deregulation, mergers and acquisitions, boards,
incentives and ethics, government and deficits internationally,
political stability in the middle east and oil prices, global
capital markets and the dollar, developing economies, Brazil,
China, to mention key elements.
[0085] An issue emerges at 1822 with conflicting opinions on either
side as at 1824 and 1826, or a widely accepted belief is
questioned. A check is made at 1828 if the issue has significant
implications to make it worth pursuing. If no stop at 1830, if yes
it is determined at 1833 whether it shows signs of a skewed
judgment. If opinions are polarized it merits checking why or if
there are other signs of a skew such as holding onto a belief when
conditions surrounding it have changed. An example from economics
is holding onto a belief in large budget surpluses when conditions
in the economy have changed drastically as happened in 2001. If
spending patterns are not checked in timely fashion this could lead
to commitments totally out of line with actual deficit
finances.
[0086] Verification of the data and information occurs at 1834
before proceeding to 1836 for expert opinion on the question. As an
example, a polarization of opinion occurred in October 2002 about
how a change in government can affect Brazil's debt situation and
maintaining the successful policies of the prior Cardozo
administration, with Wall Street analysts dire predictions and
favorable views of the change inside Brazilian business. Expert
opinion in this case of Gary Becker, 1992 economics Nobel Prize
winner and of experts at the Economist magazine suggest a scenario
of moderation and constructive change. 1832, 1834 and 1836 are in a
loop which is repeated until the sources of error are
identified.
[0087] Referring to FIG. 19, the process of selecting sources of
information and issues, questions, and decisions begins with
scanning and reading media content for questions, issues and
decisions. If the information is relevant to an objective theme of
a targeted field of study as at 1902, relevant to a subjective
theme of the field of study as at 1904, or relevant to a tracked
question, issue, or decision as at 1906, then the information is
selected as at 1908. Otherwise, it is deselected as at 1910.
Selection and deselection is a simultaneous process. After
reflecting on the gathered information at 1912, the material is
again reviewed at 1914 to determine whether it is complete or if
something has been left out that is relevant, and, if so, the
needed information is obtained and added. Based on successive
events some material is deemed no longer relevant or is obsolete,
and is deleted.
[0088] The information is grouped into categories based on a
detailed index with subcategories at 1916. Example categories
include government and political process, business sectors, and
international by economic sectors and country. The categories and
index are validated, adding and deleting as necessary at 1918.
First level linkages are made within and across groupings for the
issues/questions/decisions that are tracked at 1920. Special
categories are pulled out to track critical issues at 1922. An
example special category is, "5.8% 1st quarter growth and economic
recovery by end of 2002: Will it abort?" This question is a
critical issue for business investment; if demand is not
forthcoming, incorrect investment decisions can be disastrous.
According to the example, information is pulled in and indexed at
1924 for 1. corruption, 2. Governance, 3. confidence, 4. risks, and
5. current account. The special categories are also validated at
1926, adding and deleting as necessary.
[0089] Second level linkages are made for content of information
pieces at 1928. For example, a linkage between the budget deficit
and the US dollar exchange rate repeatedly occurs in information
pieces content, and links between these pieces of content are
appropriate second level linkages. Abstracts of articles can be
generated at step 1930. The next step is to absorb new information
in light of second level linkages at step 1932. For example, if an
earlier dated New York Times report discussing "tax collections
running lower than expected" is revealed to be critical based on
the second level linkages, then it is included. The relevant
issue/question/decisions tracked and the special category are
validated at 1918 and 1926 by collecting information from users and
experts in the subject matter. Also, changes detected at 1934 in
the information stream, and big shifts in particular, are used to
adjust the grouping of information by defined categories at
1916.
[0090] FIG. 20 shows how a subset of the total list of information
sources is chosen using set criteria. Information sources relating
to a field of study are listed at 2000. Criteria are initially set
based on quality and relevance to objective and subjective themes
relating to the field of study as at 2002. Based on whether the
source meets the criteria as at 2004, a source is either unlisted
as at 2006, or assembled as at 2008. Questions/issues/decisions are
selected for tracking at 2010 based on a logical and intuitive
analysis of the assembled sources. Information is selected among
the assembled sources based on relevance to the questions, issues,
and decisions, organized according to relevance, and distributed to
users at 2012. Users are polled and results tracked at 2014, and
the results are used to adjust the selection of questions, issues,
and decisions. If needed, as at 2016, the criteria and list of
selected sources are updated for needed changes. Also, if needed,
as at 2018, the questions, issues, and decision are updated for
needed changes.
[0091] FIG. 21 shows how the selection of information works as a
real time dynamic process, wherein information is scanned in
preselected sources at 2100, and information is selected at 2102 or
deselected at 2104. At 2106, it is determined how the information
affects and/or is affected by the previous information, and more
information is scanned at 2100 and selected at 2102 if needed in
view of the determination at 2106. At 2108, final selection takes
place and critical content and/or key remarks are highlighted at
2110 by adding markup as appropriate. At 2112, the finally selected
information is sorted according to criticality, and revelation of
any missed selections during this process results in addition of
the missed selections. Finally, information is deleted at 2114
based on obsolescence of the information.
[0092] The process by which user feedback is used in selection of
questions, issues, and decisions for tracking is explored in
greater detail with reference to FIG. 22. FIG. 22 is a bar graph
showing hypothetical frequency of access for information on each
question/issue shown therein for users in the group of economists,
bankers, policy planners in corporations, and government. These
types of Pareto charts show order of importance of questions for
users and helps in the future evolved selection of the most
important questions, issues, and/or decisions to track.
[0093] According to the present invention, the premise is rejected
that informed streams of information in any subject matter can be
tackled successfully by software or computer-based agents acting on
their own. Instead, software or computer agents act as enabling
elements when coupled with the lead role of human agents. This is
because of the internal dynamics of informed streams as more fully
explained below.
[0094] First, it is necessary to discover the nature of the
information and create some new definitions to create a new
understanding of information streams. Streams of information are
defined as streams covering a flow of information over a period of
time. Informed streams of information are defined as streams that
carry meaning at many levels, an underlying dynamic. Like a river
flows and has different appearance at different times of the day,
or at different points on different stretches of the river, these
streams are constantly changing (metamorphosing). Metamorphosing
dynamics refers to these transformational changes. The concealed
dynamics, like the ground under the river, are not readily
apparent. Concealed dynamics are defined as what is not said but
must be inferred.
[0095] The process of identifying these internal dynamics is
explored in greater detail with reference to FIG. 23. Therein, the
first level linkages are established in step 2300 as discussed in
greater detail above. Second level linkages are identified at 2302
to delineate underlying dynamics at 2304. The information piece is
revisited at 2308 to delineate metamorphosing dynamics at 2308.
Delineation of metamorphosing dynamics and underlying dynamics feed
into one another, as each can affect the other. Additional linkages
are identified at 2310, and the information piece is again
revisited at 2312 to delineate concealed dynamics at 2314. The
validity of the identification of internal dynamics is checked at
2316, optionally based on expert opinion. Finally, the collection
of information pieces is reconfigured based on new insight at
2318.
[0096] Examples of linkages and internal dynamics are given below
with reference to the field of study of economics. Therein, an
information stream is followed with respect to a tracked objective
theme corresponding to the U.S. Budget Deficit.
[0097] Example: U.S. Budget Deficit
[0098] 1st Level Linkage (Information Stream October 2001-May
2002)
[0099] 1) Tax cuts and deficit.
[0100] 2) New 2002 budget and deficit.
[0101] a. defense allocation
[0102] b. farm subsidy
[0103] 2nd Level Linkage (Information Stream January.-May 2002)
[0104] 1) Dollar-Euro exchange rate and deficit.
[0105] 2) Foreign capital inflows to finance budget and current
account deficits--$2 billion a day.
[0106] Additional Linkages (Information Stream May 2002)
[0107] 1) tax revenues collected lower than expected.
[0108] Delineated Underlying Dynamics (Information Stream October
2001-May 2002)
[0109] 1) Behavioral perceptions: from attitude of deficits are bad
(balanced budget) to deficits are OK.
[0110] 2) Politics of Democratic versus Republican political
parties
[0111] a. corporate welfare (refunds of alternative minimum tax to
corporations) versus extending unemployment insurance payments to
laid off employees.
[0112] b. payoff government debt or more tax cuts.
[0113] Metamorphosing Dynamics (Information Stream January-May
2002)
[0114] 1) Bigger government is OK.
[0115] 2) Markets need help.
[0116] Concealed Dynamics (Information Stream May 2002)
[0117] 1) deficits for many years to come.
[0118] 2) uncertain future for economy.
[0119] Following an information stream is further similar to
traveling a river in that one finds that at some stretches of the
river there are major changes in land surface (big shifts). Big
shifts are a result of some series of events that radically change
key parameters of the situation, and require redefinition of
approach and strategy to successfully accommodate the new dynamics
and the big shift. Only human agents can identify such shifts.
[0120] An example of a series of changing events and a big shift,
with radical change in key parameters of the situation is given
below with references to the field of business and economics.
Therein, an information stream is followed with respect to a
tracked objective theme corresponding to oil supplies and oil
prices.
[0121] Example: Oil Supplies and Oil Prices
[0122] Information stream (October 2001-October 2002) increasingly
volatile situation in the Middle East.
[0123] Changing Events
[0124] 1. Suicide bombings and Israeli retaliation.
[0125] 2. Post 9/11 tensions between U.S. and Middle East oil
suppliers.
[0126] 3. Proposed regime change and planned U.S.-British invasion
of Iraq.
[0127] 4. Increasing U.S. rapport with Russia and modernization of
Russian oil industry with increased production.
[0128] 5. Conflicting Russian vs. Saudi Arabian goals as oil
suppliers.
[0129] Big Shift
[0130] 1. Shift to greater reliance on sources outside of volatile
Middle East region, such as Russia.
[0131] 2. Potential for a return of Iraqi crude oil to the market
after regime change and modernization of Iraqi production.
[0132] Changes in Key Parameters and Corresponding Strategy
[0133] 1. Seeking to diversify sources of oil for stable supply,
and reduce dependence on volatile Muslin nations like Saudi
Arabia.
[0134] 2. Political strategies to establish or promote friendly
democratic governments in Middle East such as Iraq and Iran as
short and medium term policy.
[0135] 3. By so doing to ensure stable sources of supply of oil at
favorable prices to support economic growth for the medium to long
term for the world economy.
[0136] A process of identifying and reacting to big shifts in an
information stream is explored in greater detail with reference to
FIG. 24. Therein, an information stream with internal dynamics is
followed at 2400. Linkages provide a foot print trail to major
controversy in the followed stream at 2402, and a series of
changing events is revealed at 2404. Thus a big shift can be
identified at 2406 that radically changes key parameters of a
related situation as at 2408. Key articles, reports, or other media
are gathered as evidence of the big shift at 2410 and thus assist
in identifying the big shift at 2406 and restating the changed
parameters at 2412. Finally, an approach or strategy for following
the stream, tracking information, interpreting information, and/or
organizing information is redefined at 2414 for the new situation
and strategy identified from the restated parameters.
[0137] FIG. 25 shows how the linkage with experts who directly
interact with the site is provided. These experts are
professionally engaged to provide supplemental commentary
particularly pointing out the significance of selected media
content in the context of topics of interest to users and in view
of developing information. The experts are typically well-known in
the field of interest with credentials providing a basis for their
status as experts. FIG. 25 starts with an in depth search at 2500
and putting together of a list of experts on the subject at 2502.
Criteria are set for assembling expert resources at 2504. Experts
that do not meet the set criteria as at 2506 are excluded from the
list at 2508. Information from conferences, gatherings of experts,
papers at conferences, authors, or similar origins is collected for
developing the list at 2510. The expert information is disseminated
to users at 2512, and results are tracked, and users polled at
2514. If the tracked results and/or user poll indicates the need
for changes to the list as at 2516, then the list is updated with
some deletions and some additions based on user assessment and
performance assessment. New criteria are also set and new sources
assembled.
[0138] FIG. 26 shows how this information is disseminated, and how
a peer site for user exchange operates. In FIG. 26, users and
experts help to identify at 2600 and validate at 2602 current and
critical issues. Experts comment on new developments in these
issues at 2604 , and exchange views at 2606. Users can view the
expert information and comments on a website at 2606, and can click
to go to detailed information on the issue at 2608, with first
level, second level, and additional linkages provided as clickable
options at 2610 Alternatively, users can enter a separate password
to go to a peer user site at 2612 where they can exchange comments
with peers at 2618 and also revisit the site at 2620 to exchange
additional comments. Whichever option a user exercises, a one click
reverse option is provided at 2614 for going back to the expert
link at 2606.
[0139] With reference to FIG. 27, coupling of a human agent with an
artificial agent according to the present invention is explored in
greater detail, and in particular with regard to an XML
implementation. Therein, "agent" is defined as the entity or person
doing the selection, linkage, making the connection and retrieving
of information. There are human agents and artificial agents.
According to the present invention, human agents do the tasks they
are best equipped to do, such as selection of information at 2700,
and linkages of information at 2702 (first and second level
linkages and additional linkages). The human agents put XML tags on
the linkages at 2704, and store the information in an electronic
format at 2706. Also, human agents update the information with
additional linkages and XML tags at 2708. Artificial agents are the
XML language based agents (and other software or computer based
agents) which are best equipped to take over after selection and
linkage tasks are completed, to go out on the web and read the
connections or linkages based on the XML tags on information, and
retrieve information for users as at 2710. Thus, the artificial
agent(s) perform the simpler tasks building on prior work of human
agents. User and expert insights are automatically collected at
2712, and human agents use this information to adjust the linkages
of the information and associated XML tags.
[0140] Examples of XML tags for terms which are related are given
below:
[0141] [budget deficit]
[0142] [current account deficit]
[0143] [currency exchange rate]
[0144] [country ID].
[0145] According to the XML implementation of the present
invention, the name tags can have links to relevant sections of
online literature also coded with XML and interaction can point to
other linkages. So if budget deficit and current account deficit
figures deteriorate, other economic information (interest on debt
and capital inflows) can be pulled in and the effect on currency
exchange rates tracked to see if it's out of line.
[0146] FIGS. 28 and 29 show contrasting methods. FIG. 28 shows the
existing method of meeting information needs through key word
search, and FIG. 29 the method for tackling information overload.
The existing method of FIG. 28 draws virtually on the whole
universe of information 2800 without weeding out for quality.
Relevance is determined depending solely on keywords used for
search and locating their presence in titles or abstracted content
as at 2802. Results of a search at 2804 may be extremely poor, and
it is typically necessary to select and view articles at 2806 to
determine if search needs are met for quality and relevance at
2808, and then likely resume the search at 2810, perhaps from the
starting point. Thus, it is a trial/error approach which has to be
repeated if the results are poor. This is the approach in Dow
Jones, Lexis/Nexis, and others.
[0147] The contrasting method of the present invention is shown in
FIG. 12, and it uses sources preselected for quality 2900, and
tracked questions, issues, and decisions 2902 for identifying
relevance of information. Content is analyzed and preselected for
quality and relevance at 2904, and other information excluded at
2906. The result is that a selected universe of information 2908 is
generated based on quality and relevance of the selected
information from the universe of information 2800. The selected
universe of information 2908 is further filtered according to
questions, issues and decisions 2902 in combination with user
preference and/or choice (such as topic selection) at 2910. The
result at 2912 is a bibliographic list with important information
presented in a book review format with expert commentary and
linkages provided. The user can further connect to an expert link
at 2914 and/or connect to a peer site at 2916 for exchange of
comment. A user can still further select to access an article at
2918 and view the article at 2920.
[0148] The method of the present invention has several advantages
over the previous method of FIG. 28. For example, the method of
FIG. 28 using a trial and error approach that is random and
erratic, whereas the method for tackling information overload is
focused and consistent. Repeating searches in the method of FIG. 28
is costly and time consuming, and two cost elements are involved.
The cost of the professional search time is one cost element, and
the cost of accessing materials from source publishers is another
cost element. These costs are duplicated in thousands and thousands
of different locations resulting in lost productivity and
efficiency in the dissemination of information. Another cost is
imposed without the universal availability of quality and relevant
information, in poorer decision making and in lack of information
sharing and exchange. In addition there is no expert link or a link
to peer user groups to exchange comments.
[0149] FIG. 30 shows the selected information 3000 viewed by
subscribers. A bibliography type list 3002 of the relevant
articles, reports and opinion is viewable at 3004. A book review
type commentary at 3006 is viewable at 3008. Developed, first and
second level linkages 3010 are viewable at 3012, and highlighted
facts 3014 are viewable at 3016. An overall perspective 3018
synthesizing the meaning of the whole is also viewable at 3020.
[0150] Pricing and billing arrangements according to the present
invention are discussed in further detail with reference to FIG.
31. Therein, the pricing and billing arrangement starts with a
negotiated agreement with the source publishers at 3100 which
enables capability to offer one click direct access to the full
text of articles to subscribers at 3102. When users click on an
article at 3104, source publishers record the number of hits from
users at 3106. As articles are preselected for quality and
relevance, hits lead to useful results for users, which in turn
increases the number of hits at 3108. To make it attractive to
users to click frequently for full article access, a higher cost is
brought down by renegotiating with publishers at 3110 as tracked
volume increases at 3112. Users are billed by source publishers for
the hits on their subscription bill at 3114, making it one
bill.
[0151] FIG. 32 shows how the information is disseminated. It starts
with the user subscribing to the service at 3200 and providing
personal information at 3202. The user clicks on
issues/questions/decisions he can like to follow at 3204 from among
the options offered and suggesting questions/issues. At 3208, the
computer server activates the user's preference information when he
signs on with his ID and password at 3206. The server uses the
preference information to identify groups of information relevant
to the user at 3210. It pulls in the groups of information relevant
to the user and presents it in the order of importance at 3212.
[0152] The specific information as viewed by the user is shown in
FIG. 30. This presented information covers the bibliography type
list of relevant articles, reports and opinion, the review and
commentary, the 1st and 2nd level linkages and highlighted facts,
and an overall perspective. The individual user's preference
information is actively followed at and helps identify the most
active issues/questions/decisions for the user at 3214 (FIG. 32).
In addition user groups are polled at 3216, and
questions/issues/decisions updated and finely tuned.
[0153] FIG. 33 relates to FIG. 32, and includes interactive
features for dissemination of information. A user signs on and
views information relevant to their selected topics at 3300. Users
have choices to click on an article or report for full text access
at 3302. They can also choose an option of direct bill or dealing
directly with the source website as at 3304. Users can directly
view the article content at 3306, and optionally enter comments on
articles and send them by email for information sharing with peers
at 3308. The user can choose to click on first level linkages at
3310 and second level linkages at 3312 to further explore
information.
Behavioral Aspects Index
[0154] The preferred embodiment of a economic index of the present
invention is now disclosed in detail. In general, the term
Behavioral Aspect Index refers to the indexes and/or sub-indexes as
a whole, whether alone or in various combinations. Thus, there may
be four or even more sub-indexes, including an initial index (media
index), respondent index, such as the user index and/or expert
index, and an overall index (composite index). The initial index
may have a behavioral part, which may be one of three or more parts
of the initial index. The other two parts may be an economic part
and an external part. These parts of the index serve as
super-categories organizing categories and/or subcategories as
further explained below.
[0155] FIG. 44 is a flow diagram depicting the development of the
Initial sub-Index, the User sub-Index and the Expert sub-Index, and
the response and feedback loops between the originator of the Index
and the Users and the Experts in an Index module of the computer
program and system. At the top of the flow diagram the originator
of the Index selects information sources at step 8000, and at the
next step 8002 selects clips on events (reports, expert opinion).
At the following step 8004 the originator develops the Initial
Index. Once the Initial sub-Index is developed this information is
passed onto the selected Users as shown on the upper right side of
the diagram. This is feedback loop 1 as at 8006 for Users. Selected
Users give their response to Initial sub-index clips/events at step
8008 on a scale of strongly favorable to strongly unfavorable. This
information is passed onto the originator of the Index, collected
and used to develop a User sub-Index at step 8010. Selected Users
also give their general feedback to the Initial sub-index at step
8012.
[0156] This process is repeated for Experts, in Feedback and
response Loop 2 as at 8014 for Experts. From the response
information of selected Experts, an Expert Index is developed at
step 8016. Finally the Initial Index, the User Index and the Expert
Index are combined at step 8018 to develop an Overall Index.
Feedback loop 3 as at 8020 for Users and Experts at the lower right
corner is designed so that selected Users and Experts give their
general feedback on the Overall Index to the originator of the
Index at steps 8022A and 8022B.
[0157] FIG. 45 is a flow diagram depicting how the User sub-Index
and the Expert sub-Index modules are developed in parallel after
the Initial Index is completed. The Initial Index is first
developed at step 8100, and feedback in terms of questions and
clarification is exchanged between the originator of the Index and
the selected Users and selected Experts. At step 8102, Users are
selected with responsibility for objectivity. Next these Users
receive the Initial sub-Index and the response sheet at step 8106.
At step 8108, Users assign inputs on a scale from strongly
favorable to strongly unfavorable to events/clips on the Initial
Index. At step 8110, Users send the completed response sheets to
the originator of the Index. At steps 8112 and 8114, the user
response sheet information is consolidated for all selected Users
and the User sub-Index developed. In the same manner the Expert
sub-Index information is obtained on the right side of the flow
diagram, including steps 8104A-8104F. As a result of this parallel
process, the Expert sub-Index is developed, and the method includes
combining the Initial Index, the User sub-Index and the Expert
sub-Index to obtain the overall Index at step 8116.
[0158] FIG. 46 is a flow diagram depicting the simulation feature
sub-module of the Index for all Users and Experts to use on an
optional basis. This simulation feature allows the users of the
program and system to hypothetically change various input values
and observe their affect upon the index outcome; these simulations
are not typically compiled or used in the actual overall index. The
first step 8200 is the development of the Initial sub-Index. In the
next step 8202 all users and experts receive the Initial Index and
with it a simulation sheet. The Users and Experts fill in the
simulation sheet, using a scale from strongly favorable to strongly
unfavorable for clips/events, for the next step 8204. In the
following step 8206, Users and Experts click on simulation calc to
generate a customized Index based on their own perspective. These
results can be shared with peers on user and expert peer sites at
step 8208. Each company or other organization also can have its
peer sites formed for the purpose of exchanging this and other
information from the present invention. Finally in the last step
8210, Users and Experts provide feedback to the originator of the
Index.
[0159] The index of present invention attempts to capture the
market "thinking" and "mood", the "market" is defined herein as
both financial and general business activities including the stock
exchanges, brokerage and financial firms, pension funds, mutual
fund companies, large investors, small investors, firms and
corporations themselves.
[0160] The following examples impact the "thinking" of "markets",
what is swaying the "market" thinking, what makes it behave in a
certain way, and what influences the "moods" and tendencies?
[0161] 1. What are informed people reading to arrive at their own
individual understanding of business events?
[0162] 2. What is being said? What are the different opinions being
expressed about actions and events taking place. What and where is
weight given to and where is skepticism expressed, where disdain
and what is being questioned. Together these constitute perceptions
about the market.
[0163] 3. There are statistics about the economy, confidence
indexes from consumers and business surveys and these are
interpreted positively or negatively.
[0164] 4. There is also a sense of mood or feeling, of optimism or
pessimism on an index of 1 to 10 when speaking of the economy.
Interpreatation of statistics or which statistics are chosen can
depend on the mood index of optimism or pessismism. It is a
question of how much confidence there is that things will work out
as expected.
[0165] 5. Then there is the allowance for surprise. What surprises
to anticipate, what surprises to expect, and an assessment of the
possibilities of that occurring and the probabilities attached to
them. The subjective probabilities are derived from the mood of
whether optimistic or pessimistic thinking prevails.
[0166] 6. And then outside the orbit of expected or anticipated
possible events, are events that are outside the realm of
imagination. How well can these be controlled to limit damage is
the question to be asked here, or what opportunities does this open
up in the future that can be capitalized upon. Or what suggests
temporary setback now but opens up opportunities later on, a kind
of mixed situation. Examples are the fall of the Berlin Wall, the
collapse of the communist system and the entry of many developing
countries into the western economic system. Another is the collapse
of long term capital management hedge fund and the rescue effort
launched by the Federal Reserve to limit repercussions and shocks
in the financial system.
[0167] The Index of the present invention advantageously provides a
reasonably reliable tool fashioned out of this material of
behaviors, information expert opinion which is easily communicated
to decision makers in business, the government, and the financial
markets, to supplement or replace the conventional indexes based on
Better/Worse responses and government statistics. The vagueness of
the conventional Ifo and ZEW indexes have been criticized in a New
York Times article on Oct. 5, 2003, written by Mark Landler.
[0168] Traditional Better/Worse response indexes have many
detrimental constraints. The amount of information that can be
gleaned is mostly directional since the respondent can only respond
as better or worse, and neutral responses do not count
significantly or not at all. The question of "are things looking
better or worse or are they looking much better or much worse?"
remains unanswered. Why things are getting better or worse has to
be gleaned from outside of the respondent's information by using
one's judgment about events at the time.
[0169] In general, market behavior as it unfolds has particular
characteristics, the higher the uncertainty level the greater the
tendency of businesses to postpone major expenditures in plant and
equipment and large investments, until the future is seen as more
stable and promising. International crises and volatility in inputs
(such as oil both price and availability) provide exemplary
elements of uncertainty. Confidence breaking corporate revelations
act as a similar brake by introducing the element of uncertainty as
to future government regulation and its implications for business
and management. To a lesser degree, deficit spending, cost of war
and reconstruction, and the lack of pricing power add to
uncertainty.
[0170] In addition to uncertainty, other critical characteristics
of the unfolding market behaviors which influence business activity
are confidence, a sense of basic fairness and equity. These
characteristics are critical in influencing the level and vigor of
business activity and can itself be calculated as part of the
overall Index and as a separate sub-index in itself which becomes a
component of the overall Index. For instance, compensation is an
equity issue, behavior of corporate board of director members is a
confidence issue, behavior of management is a confidence issue, and
all ethics issues also translate into confidence issues. Currently
nowhere is a conventional index taking into account these
characteristics of business processes that are everyday at work in
our society and enterprise system and determine their health, vigor
and pace.
[0171] An example of a hypothetical behavioral Media sub-Index
module constructed in this manner is as follows. The weighting is
one-half for a first category, and one-fourth for each of two
additional categories: the first is based on the economic aspects
in the USA; the second is based on four behavioral aspects
specified as uncertainty, confidence, corporate governance,
fairness and equity; and the third is based on the external
picture.
[0172] The User and Expert sub-Indexes are similarly constructed as
the Media Index using user and expert opinion on the same topics as
the Media Index. These three sub-indexes, Media Index, User Index
and Expert Index can be weighted in various ways and combined to
produce a composite index reflecting media, User and Expert views,
and sentiment. One weighting scheme places equal weight on each
sub-index. Another weighting scheme places fifty percent of the
weight on the media index, and fifty percent on the respondent
index made up of the two classes of respondents, selected users and
selected experts. Thus, the user index and expert index may each be
weighted at twenty-five percent. It is envisioned that other
classes of respondents and other sub-indexes may be included, and
that various weighting schemes can be employed accordingly.
[0173] Sub-Indexes for major European economies can be constructed
in the same manner for Germany, France and the UK. and a sub-index
can be constructed in the same way for Japan and China. This can
thus cover the 6 major world economies. Based on the same structure
they can provide a consistent comparison on how each is performing
and future expectations, as well as provide a consistent period to
period comparison. This gives a consistent integrated view of the
world economy for decision makers in business and government.
[0174] A preferred embodiment example of the Index of the present
invention uses news clips from the period around September 2003.
The + mark next to a topic notes that this topic was given most
attention in the media during this period. Two ++ marks notes that
this topic got special attention.
[0175] Economic Part of Index:
[0176] 1. Inflation, corporate pricing power
[0177] 2. Budget deficits +
[0178] 3. Dollar and the Current account deficit ++
[0179] 4. Unemployment/Incomes and Purchasing power/Housing Markets
++
[0180] 5. Business Inventories +
[0181] 6. Corporate profits +
[0182] 7. Corporate Debt
[0183] 8. Corporate Investment
[0184] 9. Financial markets--Credit markets
[0185] 10. Financial markets--Stock and Bond markets +
[0186] 11. Systemic Risks--A Range of Risks on Financial system
Radar +
[0187] Behavioral Aspect Part of Index:
[0188] 1. Confidence in Business--Corporate governance, corporate
behaviors
[0189] 2. Confidence
[0190] 2.1--in financial markets +
[0191] 2.2--in the economy for employment ++
[0192] 3. Fairness and Equity
[0193] 3.1--Management Compensation +
[0194] 3.2--Health Insurance
[0195] 3.3--Incomes
[0196] 3.4--Unemployment
[0197] 4. Uncertainty about domestic political and economic
factors
[0198] 4.1--about interest rates
[0199] 4.2--about deficits
[0200] 4.3--about unemployment ++
[0201] 4.4--about the economy in general
[0202] 5. Uncertainty about International political and economic
factors
[0203] 5.1--Wars
[0204] 5.2--Reconstruction ++
[0205] 5.3--Alliances
[0206] 5.4--Free Trade
[0207] 5.5--Terrorism
[0208] External or International Part of Index:
[0209] 1. Asia--Japan
[0210] 1.1 Bank Debt
[0211] 1.2 Deflation
[0212] 1.3 Deficits
[0213] 1.4 Yen Dollar exchange rate ++
[0214] 1.5 Government and Political factors
[0215] 1.6 Reforms--Corporate Sector
[0216] 2. Asia--China, S. Korea
[0217] 2.1 Bank Debt
[0218] 2.2 Yuan-Dollar exchange rate ++
[0219] 2.3 Government and Political factors
[0220] 2.4 Economy
[0221] 3. W. Europe--Germany, France, U.K.
[0222] 3.1 Reforms--Taxes, Labor, Pension, Health Care etc. ++
[0223] 3.2 Economic Growth, Deflation, Interest rates and Deficits
+
[0224] 3.3 Euro--Dollar exchange rates ++
[0225] 3.4 Government and Political factors +
[0226] 3.5 Reforms--Corporate Sector
[0227] 4. Middle East
[0228] 4.1 Iraq Reconstruction ++
[0229] 4.2 Oil prices and Supplies +
[0230] 4.3 Government and Political factors
[0231] 5. Free Trade Issues
[0232] 5.1 WTO
[0233] 5.2 U.S. Trade deficits
[0234] Rolling Topics are used in the Index. Because topics change
in importance given from one period to the next and some topics
lose significance and can be omitted or hibernated, topics are
rolled in to the next period accounting for these changes by
editing of the topics. Examples can be given from the the Rolling
Topics or subjects for International. The Yuan/Dollar and
Euro/Dollar exchange rates became an issue in September 2003. So
this is added. The North Korean bomb threat issue was defused after
the U.S. success in Iraq and this is omitted or hibernated. Also
deflation was not as much of an issue in U.S. or Japan, though
still more so in Japan, so this does not get a + mark though it is
retained.
[0235] The Index is still stable and solidly anchored as all of the
basic categories are included and do not change, all key categories
for the U.S. economy and the behavioral aspects and country/region
aspects do not change, making for constructive period to period
comparison. The Rolling Topic edit and the overall structure of the
Index enhance the comparison.
[0236] The following is an example of the Index calculation for a
sample component-unemployment under part of the Index. A news clip
sample is provided from September/October 2003. Note that WSJ
refers to the Wall Street Journal, NYT refers to the New York
Times, BW refers to Business Week. Clips refers to clippings of
articles and reports from these and other information sources.
[0237] WSJ links:
[0238] 1. A Jobless Recovery?, Allan Meltzer Sep. 26, 2003.
[0239] 2. There's No Such Thing as a Jobless Recovery, Martin
Feldstein, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0240] 3. Clues to the Cure for Unemployment Begin to Emerge, David
Wessel, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0241] 4. Long a Drag on the Economy, Capacity Glut Begins to Ebb,
Greg Ip, Sep. 8, 2003.
[0242] Economist:
[0243] 1. Flying on One Engine, Zanny Beddoes, The Economist, Sep.
20, 2003.
[0244] 2. The Misery of Manufacturing, The Economist, Sep. 27,
2003.
[0245] NYT Links:
[0246] 1. Slowing Stream of New Jobs Helps to Explain Slump, David
Leonhardt, Oct. 1, 2003.
[0247] 2. Rhetoric vies with Reality on a Hot Topic: Jobs, David
Leonhardt, Oct. 12, 2003.
[0248] 3. Overcapacity Stall New Jobs, Louis Uchitelle, Oct. 19,
2003.
[0249] Business Week Links:
[0250] 1. Jobs: The Turning Point Is Here, P40, Coy,Hof and Arndt,
Oct. 27, 2003.
[0251] 2. A Jobs Recovery, Yes. A Hiring Boom, No, Cooper and
Madigan, Oct. 20, 2003.
[0252] Insight Links
[0253] WSJ Links:
[0254] 1. False Hopes for the Economy and False Fears, Edmund S.
Phelps, Jun. 3, 2003.
[0255] 2. Why U.S. Manufacturing Won't Die, Clare Ansberry, July 3,
2003.
[0256] 3. If Current Recovery Loses Steam, Economy May Face Real
Trouble, Greg Ip, Aug. 19, 2003.
[0257] 4. Wall Street Journal Left Behind Series and Less Sweat
More Tech series of articles and reports including the
following:
[0258] a. A New Blue Collar World, Ansberry, Jun. 30, 2003.
[0259] b. Laid Off Factory Workers are Finding Many Jobs are Drying
Up for Good, Ansberry, Jul. 21, 2003.
[0260] Insight Links
[0261] WSJ Links:
[0262] 1. False Hopes for the Economy and False Fears, Edmund S.
Phelps, Jun. 3, 2003.
[0263] 2. Why U.S. Manufacturing Won't Die, Clare Ansberry, Jul. 3,
2003.
[0264] 3. If Current Recovery Loses Steam, Economy May Face Real
Trouble, Greg Ip, Aug. 19, 2003.
[0265] 4. Wall Street Journal Left Behind Series and Less Sweat
More Tech series of articles and reports including the
following:
[0266] a. A New Blue Collar World, Ansberry, Jun. 30, 2003.
[0267] b. Laid Off Factory Workers are Finding Many Jobs are Drying
Up for Good, Ansberry, Jul. 21, 2003.
[0268] Insight Links, balancing information and skew correction are
further as follows. Insight Links are clips that bring a well
respected author's view to a difficult issue for example, Insight
Link I above. They can also bring an insightful view of the issue
from a reporter's angle. Because they take a longer view they may
not be precisely from the period considered, in this case
September-October 2003. As with the author's view, Insight Links 1
above, can bring a balanced view of things, not tending to biases
in either direction, and correct skews and imbalances in reported
thinking, also pointing out the reason for these skews or
imbalances. Insight Links provide a broad perspective.
[0269] Content Links are also now discussed. Content Links are
links contained in the article or report. For instance, they
include Experts or well informed appropriate sources whose views
the writer has obtained and quotes. For example, Uchitelle in the
New York Times article extensively quotes the views of Procter and
Gamble executives who describe their costcutting efforts to tackle
the manufacturing overcapacity they are facing. It shows how this
impacts unemployment and wages, possibly a microcosm of what may be
unfolding across a range of companies and industries in economy as
of that time period.
[0270] A calculation framework for the Index is also discussed. The
views expressed can be considered as Strongly Favorable with a +2
(100 points), Favorable with +1 (80 points), Neutral with a 0 (60
points), Unfavorable with a -1 (40 points), Strongly Unfavorable
with a -2 (20 points). Each of the news clips can be considered for
the view expressed favorable or unfavorable and the strength of the
view expressed as strongly favorable or strongly unfavorable. If
the view was not favorable or unfavorable or saw both a balanced
upside and downside to the situation this can be considered as
neutral.
[0271] An exemplary points index for the Unemployment component for
the Economy portion of the Index for September/October 2003 is as
follows.
[0272] WSJ:
1 1. Meltzer +1 80 points 2. Feldstein +1 80 points 3. Wessel +1 80
points 4. Greg Ip +1 80 points
[0273] Economist:
2 5. Beddoes -1 40 points 6. Bureaus around the world 0 60
points
[0274] NYT:
3 7. Leonhardt 1 -1 40 points 8. Leonhardt 2 -1 40 points 9.
Uchitelle -1 40 points
[0275] BW:
[0276]
4 10. Coy, Hof, and Arndt +1 80 points 11. Cooper and Madigan -1 40
points
[0277] The total points for the 11 source clips is 660 points, with
an average of 60 for all 11 source clips. This reflects an overall
neutral view with upside and downside fairly balanced.
Manufacturing faces structural changes which increase unemployment.
Companies serious cost cutting efforts also increase unemployment
and put downward pressure on wages. But as the economy improves
there is cautious optimism for improvement in jobs in the future.
However, there is considerable uncertainty as to the duration and
resilience of the recovery. A longer term Insight view casts doubt
on the frames for the discussion of a recession and recovery, when
the current situation may be a return to more normal times.
[0278] A resilience test for Index points is further discussed. The
following are ways the resilience of the points index can be
tested.
[0279] 1. Excluding a clip as in this case No. 5 Beddoes. This
gives an index of 62 points. Beddoes gives an overall perspective
of the economy which is critical but not directly related to
employment.
[0280] 2. Review the Wall Street Journal and New York Times clips
on unemployment throughout this period for a second look. For the
WSJ this showed the 2 series on unemployment through the "Less
Sweat, More Tech and Left Behind" article which give a detailed
picture of the real world of employment at different companies in
different geographic regions and in different industries. The New
York Times also showed some of this real life and real world
situation beyond the statistics. Browsing revealed 2 clips worth
mention.
[0281] As Factory Jobs Vanish, Sweet Talk Could Turn Tough, Lydia
Polgren, Oct. 12, 2003. This NYT clip is about the closure of the
Carrier Coporation plant in Syracuse causing a loss of 1200
jobs.
[0282] In Business: A Corner Transformed and Jobs Created, Carin
Rubenstein, Sep. 21, 2003. This clip is about a Westchester, N.Y.
company Fortunoff that received 9000 applications for 700 new jobs
at its new store there.
[0283] 3. Add a 12.sup.th and 13.sup.th clip, in this case the
following NYT clip:
[0284] Spotted: Evidence that Tax Cut Worked, Edmund Andrews, Oct.
19, 2003.
[0285] And the following most recent WSJ clip.
[0286] Leading Indicators Index Falls 0.2%, Greg Ip, Oct. 21,
2003.
[0287] New Clips:
5 12. Andrews NYT 0 60 13. Greg Ip WSJ 0 60
[0288] This leaves the points index at 60 where it was before this
addition. With the new clips added, the evidence still shows at
best a cautious optimism with a real awareness that some of the
structural changes now underway in manufacturing are here to stay
and unemployment is unlikely to go back to what it was in the boom
years.
[0289] The points component for the other components of the
economic part of the Index are calculated in a similar way. The
clips are show below by component.
[0290] 1. Deflation, corporate pricing power clips:
[0291] All Links:
[0292] 1. Cloud over Sun Microsystems: Plummeting Computer Prices,
Tam, WSJ, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0293] 2. Consumer Price Index Up 0.3%, Mostly Because of Gasoline,
NYT, Oct. 17, 2003 (A 2.3% increase for 12 months ending September
2003, core prices excluding food and energy up only 1.2% September
2003 over September 2002).
[0294] 3. What Happened To Deflation, Miller, Arndt and Berner, BW,
Nov. 3, 2003.
[0295] 2. Budget Deficits:
[0296] All Links:
[0297] 1. Deficit May Pass $500 Billion Mark, McKinnon and Ip, Sep.
9, 2003.
[0298] 2. Sound Biting the Deficit, Editorial, NYT, Oct. 4,
2003.
[0299] 3. Deficit Doubles But Falls Far Short of Forecast, Edmund
Andrews, NYT, Oct. 21, 2003.
[0300] 4. Washington's Fiscal Fantasies, Editorial, Business Week,
Oct. 13, 2003.
[0301] 3 The US Dollar and Exchange Rates with Yuan, Yen and the
Euro:
[0302] WSJ Links:
[0303] 1. Leave the Yuan Alone, Chen Zhao, Aug. 14, 2003.
[0304] 2. China Won't Let Currency Rise Quickly Rebuffing US
Request, Wonacott and Phillips, Sep. 3, 2003.
[0305] 3. Snowed in Beijing, Editorial, Sep. 3, 2003.
[0306] 4. Don't Blame the Yuan, Glenn Hubbard, Sep. 9, 2003.
[0307] 5. Snow's Currency Job, Sep. 23, 2003.
[0308] 6. Currency Kabuki, Oct. 15, 2003.
[0309] 7. Bush's Bad Currency, Editorial, Oct. 17, 2003.
[0310] 3. The US Dollar and Exchange Rates:
[0311] BW Links:
[0312] 1. Drowning in Dollars, BW, Balfour, Webb, Coy and Engardio,
Aug. 25, 2003.
[0313] NYT Links:
[0314] Doubts Expressed as Bush Presses Asia On Currency, Andrews,
Sep. 25, 2003.
[0315] Economist Links:
[0316] Tilting at Dragons, Oct. 25, 2003.
[0317] 4. Unemployment:
[0318] Shown Previously:
[0319] 5. Inventories/Capacity:
[0320] WSJ and NYT Links:
[0321] 1. Long a Drag on the Economy, Capacity Begins to Ebb, Greg
Ip, WSJ, Sep. 8, 2003.*
[0322] 2. Overcapacity Stalls New Jobs, Uchitelle, Oct. 19,
2003.*
[0323] 3. Inventories Fall to A Low Point in Sales Terms, NYT, Oct.
9, 2003.
[0324] 6. Corporate Profits:
[0325] NYT Clips:
[0326] 1. G.E. Earnings Decline 11%, Key Product Lines Are
Sluggish, Deutsch, Oct. 11, 2003.
[0327] 2. Intel Says Net Doubles, With Sales Up Overseas, Flynn,
Oct. 15, 2003.
[0328] 3. Market Place; IBM Earnings Don't Impress Wall Street,
Lohr, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0329] 4. G.M. Profit Beats Estimates, With Aid of Finance Unit,
Hakim, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0330] 5. Du Pont Posts Loss, Cautious on Outlook, Reuters, Oct.
22, 2003.
[0331] 6. American Airlines Earns Slight Profit, Associated Press,
Oct. 22, 2003.
[0332] 7. Daimler Has Slim Profit at Chrysler in Quarter, Landler,
Oct. 22, 2003.
[0333] 8. Improvement In Bottom Lines Pumping Up Investor's Hopes,
Fuerbringer, Oct. 21, 2003.
[0334] 7. Stock Markets:
[0335] Clips Similar to Profits for Calculation Index.
[0336] 8. Systemic Risks--Risks To The Financial System on the
Radar:
[0337] All Clips:
[0338] 1. U.S. Is Said To Be Open To Ending Credit Lines Of Loan
Giants, Labaton, NYT, Oct. 23, 2003.
[0339] 2. Woes at Financier of Mortgages Spurs Concerns, Barta
Sapsford, WSJ, Sep., 26, 2003.
[0340] 3. Flubbing It, WSJ, Editorial, Oct. 7, 2003.
[0341] Insight Links for Economic Portion of Index:
[0342] Firms Had a Hand In Pension Plight They Now Bemoan, WSJ,
Jul. 10, 2003.
[0343] A China Trade Primer, WSJ Editorial, Aug. 17, 2003.*
[0344] China's Economy Is A Paper Tiger, Hugo Restall, Op-Ed, WSJ,
Aug. 5, 2003.
[0345] Don't Look Down, NYT, Paul Krugman, Oct. 14, 2003.*
[0346] The Productivity Boom Is Just Warming Up, Business Week,
Gary Becker, Oct. 20, 2003.*
[0347] Flying On One Engine, Economist, Sep. 18, 2003.
[0348] 7. The Technology Deflator, Robert Shiller, WSJ, Jun. 12,
2003.
[0349] 8. How To Deflate Overblown Fears of Deflation, Glenn
Hubbard, Op-Ed, WSJ, Jun. 9, 2003.
[0350] Calculation of Index Points for Economy Portion of
Index:
[0351] 1. Deflation:
6 Based on factual information of CPI Index 0 60
[0352] 2. Budget Deficits:
7 McKinnon and Ip -1 40 NYT Editorial -1 40 Andrews 0 60 BW
Editorial -1 40 Total of 180 points for an average of 45
[0353] 3. U.S. Dollar and Exchange Rates:
[0354] Chen Zhao
[0355] Wonnacott and Phillips
[0356] WSJ Snow Editorial 1
[0357] WSJ Snow Editorial 2
[0358] Hubbard 1--Don't Blame the Yuan
[0359] Hubbard 2--Currency Kabuki
[0360] WSJ Bad Currency Editorial
[0361] BW Balfour, Webb and Coy
[0362] NYT Andrews
[0363] Economist Tilting At Dragons
[0364] Favorable or Unfavorable based on proposition--Considering
the global economic growth picture is the best option for USA at
present to make constructive changes but no abrupt devaluing of
currencies that might lead to difficulties. Consistently all clips
above point out the dangers of abruptly devaluing the Chinese Yuan
which could cause deflation and wreck one of the few engines of
growth in the global economy while at the same time to push for
other constructive changes in trade and in stabilizing Chinese
banks. The calculation of this index component gives a +2 for all
the above clips and a corresponding score of 80. This issue's other
ramifications are also taken up in the external or international
portion of the Index.
[0365] 4. Unemployment. Shown previously. Calculated point index of
60.
[0366] 5. Business Inventories/Production Capacity:
8 Greg Ip 0 60 Uchitelle 0 60 NYT Inventories Fall 0 60
[0367] Average of 60.
[0368] 6. Corporate Profits:
9 Deutsch, G. E. -1 40 Flynn, Intel +1 80 Lohr, IBM 0 60 Hakim, GM
0 60 Reuters, Du Pont -1 40 AP, American Airlines 0 60 Daimler
Chrysler -1 40 Fuerbringer +1 80
[0369] Total of 460 points for an average of 57 points.
[0370] 7. Stock Markets:
[0371] Use calculated points for Corporate Profits of 57.
[0372] 8. Systemic Risks--Risks to Financial System on Radar:
10 Labaton, NYT +1 80 Barta, Sapsford, FHLB's, WSJ -1 40 Flubbing
It, Editorial WSJ -1 40
[0373] Total of 160 points for an average of 53 points.
[0374] Based on the above calculation the points index for the
economic portion is calculated. A total of 472 points for all of
the components for an average of 59 points.
[0375] Summary of Points for Economic Part of Index:
11 Deflation 60 Deficits 45 US Dollar/Exchange Rates 80
Unemployment 60 Business Inventories/ 60 Production Capacity
Corporate Profits 57 Stock Markets 57 Systemic Risks 53
[0376] A Total of 472 Points for all Components of the economic
part of Index for an average of 59 points.
[0377] Economic Average: 59 Points.
[0378] The points Index for the confidence in business component of
the behavioral part of the Index is now described. The following
are the clips for confidence in business for September/October
2003. This covers corporate governance and corporate behaviors and
is the first of five components in the behavioral part of the
Index. This period saw a series of revelations much like the Enron
affair and daily reporting covering the new events of that day. It
covers the Grasso pay package affair, the Spitzer Mutual Fund
Probe, the SEC Inquiry into Trading by Specialist firms of the New
York Stock Exchange ("NYSE, and other probes of financial firms
such as AIG and Bank of America uncovering wrongdoing. A
chronological sequence of the daily reporting from the WSJ is shown
here, as well as clips from the NYT, and Business Week. The
behavioral aspect refers to confidence that is created or eroded in
the public mind about ethical standards and the lack of ethical
standards of business executives. The daily report suggesting lack
of confidence first in Mr. Grasso's judgment, then that of the
Board of the NYSE, and further reports of the failure in corporate
self governance at NYSE because of the failure to pursue the
trading inquiry until the SEC moved in, systematically erode this
confidence. The only positive aspect of the episode was the
selection of a new CEO for the NYSE and his efforts to clean up the
cozy system in place for insiders of the NYSE and the restoration
of the public trust with the removal of the old Board and a new
management in place. But overall this restoration of trust can take
considerable period of time to create confidence, as a month's
worth of negative reporting on this episode coupled with the Mutual
Fund inquiry, piled up onto earlier revelations following the Enron
affair continue to reinforce a public distrust in Business ethics
and standards. There is therefore no separate rating of the clips
in this case as they are with small exceptions such as the
selection of the new CEO of the NYSE consistently in the Strongly
Unfavorable category or -2, with a point index of 20.
Chronologically, the links for the confidence in business component
of the behavioral part of the Index are listed as follows with
important clips having an asterik placed at the end.
[0379] On the Grasso Affair:
[0380] WSJ Links:
[0381] 1. SEC Head Demands Details on Pay Deal for NYSE's Grasso,
Solomon and Kelly, Sep. 3, 2003.
[0382] 2. Grasso Forgoes Extra $48 million Raising New Questions
for NYSE, Kelly and Craig, Sep. 10, 2003.
[0383] 3. Grasso May Have Influenced Details of NYSE Pay Package,
Craig, Francis and Dugan, Sep. 11, 2003.*
[0384] 4. More Disclosures, Uncertainty at the NYSE, Kelly and
Craig, Sep. 12, 2003.
[0385] 5. SEC Is To Seek More NYSE Details, Cohen and Solomon, Sep.
15, 2003.
[0386] 6. Grasso Quits NYSE Amid Pay Furor, Kelly, Craig and Dugan,
Sep. 18, 2003.*
[0387] 7. Grasso a Can-Be Cop, Decides to Surrender, Kelly and
Craig, Sep. 18, 2003.
[0388] 8. Weakened NYSE Must Face Challenges, Craig and Kelly, Sep.
18, 2003.
[0389] 9. Heat Shifts to Board of Leaderless NYSE, Craig and Kelly,
Sep. 19, 2003.*
[0390] 10. NYSE Will Delay Its Game Plan For Change, Craig, Pacelle
and Kelly, Sep. 23, 2003.
[0391] 11. As End Neared Grasso Held On In Hopes Pay Furor Can Ebb,
Sep. 26, 2003.*
[0392] 12. NYSE's Reed Scraps Report, Plans New One, Sep. 26,
2003.*
[0393] 13. Reed To Alter the Way NYSE Governs Itself, Kelly and
Craig, Sep. 29, 2003.
[0394] NYT Links Grasso Affair:
[0395] 14. Consultant to Grasso on Pay Is Also Adviser To Exchange,
Landon Thomas, Jr., Sep. 24, 2003.
[0396] 15. McCall To Quit Stock Exchange After Pay Furor, Landon
Thomas Jr., Sep. 26, 2003.*
[0397] 16. Big Board Ponders Pay Disclosures, Landon Thomas Jr.,
Oct. 10, 2003.
[0398] Business Week Link Grasso Affair:
[0399] 17. The 140 Million Dollar Man, Gary Weiss, Business Week
Cover, Sep. 15, 2003.*
[0400] On the Spitzer Mutual Fund Probe and SEC Inquiry into NYSE
Trading Firms and Other inquiries:
[0401] WSJ Links:
[0402] 1. Spitzer Kicks off Fund Probe with a $40 million
Settlement, Smith and Lauricella, Sep. 4, 2003.
[0403] 2. With Mutual Funds, Is the Investor No. 1?, Karen Damato,
Sep. 5, 2003.*
[0404] 3. Scrutiny of Mutual Funds Grows as SEC Probes Deal with
Brokers, Lauricella and Solomon, Oct. 23, 2003.
[0405] 4. Revenge of the Investor Class, Editorial, Oct. 23,
2003.*
[0406] 5. NYSE to Punish Five Specialists in Trading Inquiry,
Cohen, Craig, and Kelly,Oct. 16, 2003.
[0407] 6. NYSE Trading Probe Took Late Sharp Turn(SEC Nudge
Provided Impetus Prompting Questions Concerning Efficacy of
Self-Regulatory System), Oct. 17, 2003.*
[0408] 7. AIG Is Charged By SEC with Fraud, Smith and Francis, Sep.
12, 2003.
[0409] 8. Bank of America Sought Assets, Got Troubles, Mollenkamp,
Sep. 12, 2003.
[0410] NYT Links:
[0411] 9. SEC Steps In as Fines Are Planned on 5 Firms, Landon
Thomas Jr., Oct. 17, 2003.
[0412] Insight Links:
[0413] WSJ Links:
[0414] 1. Enron's Getaway Drivers, editorial on the $300 million
penalty on Enron bankers.
[0415] 2. JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup, Jul. 29 2003.*
[0416] 3. The Big Board's Barrel (The NYSE's Chairman Got $140
Million. For What?!), Susan Lee, Sep. 10, 2003.*
[0417] 4. Wide SEC Review May Revamp Structure of U.S. Stock
Markets, Solomon and Kelly, Sep. 19, 2003.
[0418] 5. Where Was the NYSE Board?, Lublin, Sep. 11, 2003.*
[0419] 6. The Market's Most Valuable Stock is Trust, Shiller, Sep.
25, 2003.*
[0420] BW Links:
[0421] 7. Lessons from the Grasso Affair, Sep. 29, 2003.*
[0422] 8. Restoring Trust in Mutual Funds, Sep. 22, 2003.*
[0423] NYT Links: 9. Can Exchanges Regulate Themselves as Rivalry
Grows?, Norris, Oct. 17, 2003.*
[0424] Calculation for the Behavioral Aspect Portion of the
Index:
12 1. Confidence in Business -2 20 2. Confidence in Financial
Markets -2 20 1. Mutual Fund Inquiry 2. Chase Citigroup $300
million Enron Penalty 3. SEC's NYSE Trading Inquiry 3. Confidence
in the Economy 0 60 for Employment-Job Security Using Employment
component of Economy portion of Index 4. Fairness and Equity 1.
Management Compensation -2 20 Using Confidence in Business
component Grasso affair 2. Health Insurance -1 40
[0425] Links:
[0426] 1. Census Sees Surge in Americans Without Insurance,
Schaefer and McGinley,WSJ, Sep. 30, 2003.
[0427] 2. Walmart Cost-Cutting Finds a Big Target in Health
Benefits, Wysocki and Zimmerman, WSJ, Sep. 30, 2003.
13 5. Incomes/Depression of wages 0 60
[0428] Use unemployment component links Uchitelle etc. on wage
influence.
[0429] Other Links:
[0430] 1. Is Wal-Mart Too Powerful, Bianco and Zellner, BW, Oct. 6,
2003.
[0431] 2. The High Cost of Low Prices, BW Editorial on Wal-mart,
Oct. 6, 2003.
[0432] 3. Inside Southwest Airlines, Storied Culture Feels Strains,
Trottman, WSJ, Jul. 11, 2003 (Insight Link).
14 5. Unemployment Blue collar 0 60 White Collar Link below 0
60
[0433] Link:
[0434] Skilled Workers Mount Opposition to Free Trade, Swaying
Politicians, Schroeder and Aeppel, WSJ, Oct. 10, 2003.
[0435] Total of 180 points for Fairness and Equity with an average
of 45.
15 6. Uncertainty a. Interest Rates (hibernate) -- -- b. Deficits
(Input from Economy) 45 c. Unemployment 0 60 (Input from Economy)
d. Economy in General 61 (Input from overall Economy)
[0436] Total of 166 points points for an average of 55.
16 7. International Political and Economy a. Wars - Daily human
toll of Iraq bomb attacks. 0 60 b. Reconstruction $87 billion
funding for Iraq-Congressional approval; +1 87 Passage of USA
favored UN Resolution; Madrid Conference for Donors to Iraq
Reconstruction, A Success.
[0437] All Clips for a. and b. Above
[0438] 1. The Billions Needed for Iraq Could exact a Toll on
Fragile Economy, BW, Sep. 22, 2003.
[0439] 2. The Struggle for Iraq: The Reconstruction; Unanimous Vote
By UN's Council Adopts Iraq Plan, Felicity Barringer, NYT, Oct. 17,
2003.
[0440] 3. Lawmakers Back Request By Bush on Funds for Iraq,
Firestone, NYT Oct. 18, 2003 (House vote 303 to 125, Senate 87 to
12, Senate requires Iraq to repay $10 billion).
[0441] 4. About $13.4 billion is pledged for the Reconstruction of
Iraq, Phillips, Oct. 27, 2003.
[0442] 5. Indebted to Saddam, WSJ Editorial, Oct. 27, 2003.
[0443] 6. The Rebirth of a Nation, Ana Palacio, WSJ, Oct. 27,
2003.
[0444] 7. Bombings Plunge Iraqi Capital into Chaos at Start of
Ramadan, Filkins and Berenson, NYT, Oct. 27, 2003.
17 Nussbaum 0 60 Barringer +2 100 Firestone +2 100 Philips +2 100
WSJ Editorial 0 60 Palacio +2 100
[0445] Total of 520 points for an average of 87.
18 Berenson 0 60 c. Alliances +1 80
[0446] Shift in German Position Supporting US for Reconstruction of
Iraq.
[0447] UK's Blair and Spain's Aznar both Retain Popularity after
Iraq Stance.
[0448] All Clips:
[0449] 1. In a Shift Schroeder Says Germany Is Ready To Help
Rebuild Iraq, Kempe and Champion,WSJ, Sep. 18, 2003, (An hour long
interview with WSJ's Kempe and Champion in Schroeder's Berlin
office).
[0450] 2. Bush and Schroeder Look To Move Past Differences on Iraq,
Bumiller, NYT, Sep. 24, 2003.
[0451] 3. Blair's Popularity Survives Criticism Over Iraq Stance,
Champion, WSJ, Sep. 26, 2003.
[0452] 4. NATO To Consider Expansion Of Afghan Force, Shishkin,
WSJ, Sep. 19, 2003.
[0453] 5. As Long As It Takes, Colin Powell, WSJ, Sep. 19,
2003.
[0454] 6. Premier's Party Regains Power In Madrid Vote, Ousting
Leftists, Fuchs, NYT Oct. 27, 2003.
19 Kempe, Champion +1 80 Bumiller +1 80 Champion +1 80 Shishkin +1
80 Powell +1 80 Fuchs +1 80 d. Free Trade +1 80
[0455] Inputting US Dollar-Yuan exchange rate points index
component. Free Trade aspects of issues in China-US trade reflected
by Senate proposal of high tariffs on Chinese imports.
20 e. Terrorism 0 60
[0456] Absence of any significant incident to disrupt economy.
[0457] Total points for uncertainty for international political and
economic factors is 360 points for an average of 72 points.
[0458] Summary of Behavioral Aspect of Index
21 Confidence in Business -2 20 Confidence in Financial Markets -2
20 Confidence in Economy for 60 Employment Fairness and Equity 45
Uncertainty 55 International Politics and Economics 73
[0459] Average for the behavioral portion of the Index is a total
of 273 points with an average of 45 points.
[0460] Behavioral Average: 45 Points.
[0461] Calculation of External or International Part of the
Index:
[0462] 1. Asia--Japan
[0463] 1.1 Bank Debt:
[0464] Japan's Takenaka is reappointed Banking and Economic Policy
Minister and reaffirms intention to continue to pursue banking
reforms. Prime Minister Koizumi pushes for Banking Reform after
strong victory in LDP election.
[0465] All Clips:
[0466] 1. Takenaka Sets Strict Goals To Improve Japan's Banks,
Fackler, WSJ, Sep. 26, 2003 (Takenaka's first interview with
foreign press since his reappointment as Banking and Economic
Policy Minister.)
[0467] 2. Unlikely Team Sets Japanese Banking On Road to Reform,
Fackler, WSJ, Aug. 6, 2003.
[0468] 3. Japan Still in Dreamland about the Bank Crisis, Brian
Bremner, BW, Jun. 2, 2003.
[0469] 4. Persistence Pays: Japan's Bank Regulator Makes Gains, Ken
Belson, NYT, Sep. 30, 2003.
22 Fackler 1 +2 100 Fackler 2 +2 100 Bremner -1 40 Belson +1 80
[0470] Total of 320 points for an average of 80 points.
[0471] 1.2 Deflation:
[0472] Bank of Japan chief conveys firm intent to pursue easy money
policy to fight deflation.
[0473] All Clips:
[0474] 1. In Tokyo, More Steps Toward Fixing the Economy, Belson,
NYT, Oct. 11, 2003.
[0475] 2. Bank of Japan Chief Vows To Continue Easy Policy, Belson,
NYT, Sep. 4, 2003.
23 Belson 1 +1 80 Belson 2 +1 80
[0476] 1.3 Deficits (hibernate)
[0477] 1.4 Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate:
[0478] All Clips:
[0479] 1. Japan's Economy Grows at 3.9% Pace, Belson, NYT, Sep. 11,
2003.
[0480] 2. Bank of Japan Chief Vows To Continue Easy Policy, Belson,
NYT, Sep. 4, 2003.
[0481] 3. Currency Quid Pro Quo, Bremner, BW, Oct. 20, 2003.
24 Belson 1 +2 100 Belson 2 +1 80 Bremner +1 80
[0482] Total of 260 points for an average of 87 points for
yen-dollar exchange Rate.
[0483] 1.5 Government and Politics:
[0484] Events:
[0485] 1. Premier Koizumi wins LDP election with 60% of vote.
[0486] 2. Koizumi forms Cabinet that strongly supports Reform
efforts.
[0487] 3. Reappoints Takenaka as Banking and Economic Policy
Minister.
[0488] All Clips:
[0489] 1. With a Big Victory, Japanese Premier Gains Momentum,
Onishi, Sep. 21, 2003.
[0490] 2. A Reform Cabinet in Japan, Bremner, BW, Oct. 6, 2003.
[0491] 3. New Cabinet in Japan Emphasizes Fiscal Reform, Onishi and
Belson, NYT Sep. 23, 2003.
[0492] Insight Link:
[0493] 1. Why Koizumi Is Still Riding High, Bremner, BW, Jun. 16,
2003.
25 Onishi 1 +2 100 Onishi 2 +2 100 Bremner +2 100
[0494] 1.6 Reforms--Corporate Sector:
[0495] About a four-fold improvement in Return on Equity to 7%
since 1998. Corporate Governance Reforms Make Progress.
[0496] Clips:
[0497] 1. Wal-Mart's Foray Into Japan Spurs A Retail Upheaval,
Zimmerman and Fackler, Sep. 19, 2003.
[0498] 2. Corporate Japan's Stealth Makeover, Bremner, BW, Sep. 29,
2003.
[0499] 3. Japan: Learning the Hard Way, Bremner, BW, May 19,
2003.
26 Zimmerman and Fackler +2 100 Bremner 1 +2 100 Bremner 2 +1
80
[0500] Average for Reforms-Corporate Sector of 93 points.
[0501] Points Summary for Japan
27 Bank Debt 80 Deflation 80 Yen-Dollar Rate 87 Government and
Politics 100 Reforms-Corporate Sector 93
[0502] Average for Japan is 88 Points.
[0503] Calculation of External or International Part of Index
[0504] 2. Asia--China:
[0505] 2.1 Bank Debt:
[0506] All clips:
[0507] 1. China's Banks Face Growing Threat From Major Fraud,
Leggett, WSJ, Aug. 4, 2003.
[0508] 2. Speed and Courage: Banks in China Must Get Lending Right,
Wessel, WSJ, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0509] 3. China's Bank Regulator Promises Sector Cleanup, Kathy
Chen, WSJ, Oct. 16, 2003 ( First interview with a foreign newspaper
since taking office in March).
[0510] 4. Surge in Lending in China Stokes Economic Worries, Chen
and Leggett, WSJ, Oct. 3, 2003.
28 Leggett -2 20 Wessel -2 20 Chen -1 40 Chen and Leggett -2 20
[0511] Average of 25 for China Bank Debt.
[0512] 2.2 Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate:
[0513] All clips:
[0514] 1. As Fight Heats Up Over China Trade, Business Is Split,
Wonacott and Chang, WSJ, Sep. 4, 2003.
[0515] 2. Tilting At Dragons, Finance and Economics, Economist,
Oct. 25, 2003.
[0516] 3. Is It China's Fault? Miller Engardio, Roberts, BW, Oct.
13, 2003.
[0517] 4. Don't Blame Job Woes on China, Editorial BW, Oct. 13,
2003.
[0518] 5. Another Big Reason China Won't Devalue, Balfour, BW, Oct.
6, 2003.
29 Wonacott and Chang 0 60 Economist +1 80 Engardio, Roberts +2 100
BW Editorial +2 100 Balfour +2 100
[0519] Average for China Yuan Dollar Exchange rate of 88 points
[0520] An international aspect is determined-good for the USA or
good for country X (Japan, China or some other Country). When there
are apparently conflicting goals, as in the Dollar-Yen or
Dollar-Yuan exchange rates, is "favorable" seen as favorable to the
USA or favorable to Japan or China in the external or international
part of the Index? When viewed against the backdrop of USA job
losses this becomes a politicized issue.
[0521] The response is that though countries have apparently
conflicting goals there is a solution that is mutually beneficial
to all. There is no solution in a globalized economy benefiting and
largely built on free trade for win-lose solutions as win-lose
solutions quickly become lose-lose solutions as countries do a tit
for tat policy action. This is the crucial point. Engines for
growth in any part of the global economy are beneficial to keeping
the global economy from stalling in the current situation so
efforts are made not to destabilize and upset this. This is true in
the USA-China debate that the Yuan is undervalued and in the
Dollar-Yen exchange rate. The present invention system and
programmed calculations, however, advantageously account for this
issue unlike conventional and overly simplistic methods.
[0522] 2.3 Government and Political Factors:
[0523] Events:
[0524] China's decision to backdown after street protests against a
new internal security measure.
[0525] Clips:
[0526] 1. Chinese Reversal In Hong Kong Reveals Dilemma on
Democracy, Pottinger and Hutzler, Sep. 8, 2003.
[0527] 2. A Shining Example for Asia, WSJ, Editorial, Jul. 15,
2003.
[0528] 3. Why the Tung Administration Lacks Legitimacy, Yeung
Wai-Hong, Op-Ed, WSJ, Jul. 15, 2003.
30 Pottinger +1 80 WSJ Editorial +2 100 Wai-Hong +1 80
[0529] Average of 87 points for China Government and Political
factors.
[0530] 2.4 China Economy:
[0531] Clips:
[0532] 1. Is This Boom In Danger, Roberts and Balfour, BW, Nov. 3,
2003.
[0533] 2. Surge in Lending In China Stokes Economic Worries, Chen
and Leggett, WSJ, Oct. 3, 2003.
[0534] 3. Living on Borrowed Growth, Weijian Shan, WSJ OpEd, Oct.
7, 2003.
31 Balfour -2 20 Chen and Leggett -2 20 Shan -2 20
[0535] Average of 20 for China Economic Growth.
[0536] Summary of Points Index Component for China:
32 Bank Debt 25 Dollar-Yuan Exchange Rate 88 Government and
Political factors 87 Economy 20
[0537] Average for China in External portion of Index of 55
points.
[0538] 3. Western Europe--Germany, France, U.K.:
[0539] 3.1 Reforms--Taxes, Labor, Pension, Health Care etc.:
[0540] All clips:
[0541] 1. A Long Hard Climb, German and French Economic reforms,
World Europe, Economist, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0542] 2. From Third Way to Thatcherism, Global Agenda, Economist,
Oct. 17, 2003.
[0543] 3. In Deep Crisis, Germany Starts To Revamp Vast Welfare
State, Rhoads, Jul. 10, 2003.
[0544] 4. France's Economic Reforms: Fizzling Out?, Matlack, BW
Oct. 13, 2003.
[0545] 5. Give This Employment Policy The Guillotine, Rossant, BW,
Oct. 27, 2003 (The 35 hour week).
33 Economist 1 +1 80 Economist 2 +1 80 Rhoads, WSJ +1 80 Matlack,
BW 0 60 Rossant, BW -1 40
[0546] Average of 68 for Germany/France reforms.
[0547] 3.2 Economic Growth, Deflation, Interest Rates,
Deficits:
[0548] All clips:
[0549] 1. German Think Tanks Offer Glum Budget Picture, WSJ, Oct.
22, 2003.
[0550] 2. Sunny Skies for Europe? Grab That Umbrella, Landler, NYT,
Oct. 5, 2003.
[0551] 3. As U.S. Shows Signs of Strength, Global Economies Look
Up, Too, Hilsenrath, Rhoads, Buckman, WSJ, Aug. 12, 2003.
[0552] 4. German Survey Adds To Hopes for EU Rebound, Rhoads, WSJ,
Jul. 29, 2003.
[0553] 5. A Big Bet on Land In the East Haunts Germany's Banks,
Walker, WSJ, Aug. 5, 2003.
[0554] 6. Spain's Housing Prices Prompt Fears of a Bust, House and
Vitzthum, WSJ, Aug. 5, 2003.
34 Think Tanks, WSJ -1 40 Landler, NYT -1 40 Hilsenrath +1 80
Walker, WSJ -1 40 House and -1 40 Vitzthum
[0555] Average of 48 for Economic Growth for Germany, Spain
[0556] 3.3 Euro-Dollar Exchange Rates (hibernate)
[0557] 3.4 Government and Political Factors:
[0558] Clips:
[0559] 1. Blair's popularity survives criticism over Iraq stance,
Champion, WSJ, Sep. 26, 2003.
[0560] 2. France's Economic Reforms: Fizzling Out?, Matlack, BW,
Oct. 13, 2003.
35 Champion 0 60 Matlack 0 60
[0561] Average for Government and Political factors of 60
points.
[0562] 3.5 Reforms--Corporate Sector:
[0563] All clips:
[0564] 1. For Siemens, Move Into USA Causes Waves Back Home,
Karnitschnig, WSJ, Sep. 8, 2003.
[0565] 2. Peugeot's Formula for Success: Steering Clear of
Megamergers, Boudette, WSJ, Aug. 4, 2003.
36 Karnitschnig, WSJ +1 80 Boudette, WSJ +1 80
[0566] Average for Europe Reforms--Corporate Sector of 80.
[0567] Insight Links:
[0568] 1. Scrap the Pact, WSJ Review and Outlook, Jul. 16,
2003.
[0569] 2. Old Europe's Choice, Gordon Brown, WSJ OpEd, Oct. 16,
2003.
[0570] 3. Britain's Trumpet, WSJ Editorial, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0571] 4. The ECB's New Boss, Fairlamb and Rossant, BW, Sep. 22,
2003.
[0572] Summary for Europe:
37 Reforms 68 Economic Growth 48 Government and Political factors
60 Reforms Corporate Sector 80
[0573] Average for Europe component of External part of Index of 64
points.
[0574] 4. Calculation for Middle East:
[0575] 4.1 Iraq Reconstruction:
[0576] Use calculation from 5.2 of behavioral aspect of Index
titled reconstruction which was 87 points.
[0577] 4.2 Oil Prices and Supplies:
[0578] All clips:
[0579] 1. Hidden Pipeline. Inside OPEC's Backroom Deal To Keep Oil
Supplies Flowing. Consumer Nation's Watchdog In Return Makes
Tapping Its Stockpile A last Resort. Bhushan Bahree, WSJ, Jul. 29,
2003.
[0580] 2. Saudis Woo Russia With Oil Accord. Moscow Agrees To Curb
Output Surge If Prices Fall. Jeanne Whalen, WSJ, Sep. 3, 2003.
38 Bahree +1 80 Whalen +1 80
[0581] 4.3 Government and Political Factors:
[0582] Events:
[0583] Iran nuclear oversight settlement of European foreign
ministers Iraq governing council plan.
[0584] Points assigned of 80 points.
[0585] Total Middle East of 247 points (87+80+80) for an average of
82 points.
[0586] 5.0 Free Trade Issues (hibernate)
[0587] Calculation of External or International Part of Index
[0588] External Index Summary:
39 Japan 88 China 55 Germany 64 Middle East 82
[0589] Total of 289 points for an average of 72 points for external
part of Index.
[0590] External Average: 72 Points
[0591] Summary of Index for the USA Combining 3 Parts:
40 Economy Part 59 Points Behavioral Aspect Part 45 Points External
or International Part 72 Points
[0592] Weighting System for the 3 Parts:
41 Economy Part 50% or 1/2 Behavioral Aspect Part 25% or 1/4
External Part 25% or 1/4 USA INDEX 58.7 POINTS
[0593] Resilience test of Index for new events:
[0594] The points sub-Index is tested for impact of any new events
or most recent events.
[0595] 1. Event--The Commerce Department announced a 7.2%
annualized growth rate for the third quarter of 2004.
[0596] New Clips:
[0597] 1. Economy Turned In Its Best Growth Rate In Nearly Two
Decades, Schlesinger and Hilsenrath, WSJ, Oct. 31, 2003.
[0598] 2. Prestigious Party Poopers Persist, Browning and
Lucchetti, WSJ, Nov. 2, 2003.
[0599] 3. Say Goodbye To Refi Madness, Palmieri, Coy, Miller, BW,
Nov. 10, 2003.
[0600] 4. The Fed: Another Failure To Communicate, Cooper and
Madigan, BW Nov. 10, 2003.
[0601] 5. Mobile Home Loans Hang Over Fannie Mae, Barta and
Zuckerman, BW, Nov. 2, 2003.
[0602] Palmieri, Coy, Miller Clip for 1.4 Unemployment/Incomes and
Purchasing Power/Housing Markets points to Refi Boom as a big
factor in the growth spurt in 2003 and this will not continue. Tax
Cuts will also not be a big factor in 2004 as they were in 2003 for
consumer purchasing power. The score for 1.4 is not likely to
change from 60 points. Other components 1.1 Deflation at 60 points,
1.2 Budget Deficits at 45 points,1.3 Dollar and Exchange Rates and
1.5 Business Inventories and Production Capacity of 60 points are
not likely to change. 1.8 Systemic Risks continues at 53 points as
evidenced by Clip 5 Barta and Zuckerman. Clip 2 Browning and
Lucchetti shows that the evidence of expert opininon is mixed about
whether the strong results for third quarter 2003 will continue
into 2004. The net impact is that the Economy Index of 59 Points
can not be changed by the event.
[0603] 2. The External Index component for Japan and China is
tested for resilience with the most recent information. This
includes papers by experts presented at conferences.
[0604] New Paper:
[0605] 1. Weakening Market and Regulatory Discipline in Japanese
Financial System, Mitsuhiro Fukao, Keio University, paper submitted
at Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Conference on Market Discipline:
The Evidence Across Countries and Industries, Oct. 31, 2003.
[0606] 2. Interview with Mitsuhiro Fukao, Shailen Banker,
Intelilinks, Conference on Market Discipline, Federal Reserve Bank
of Chicago, Oct. 31, 2003.
[0607] The paper and the interview points out the hurdles facing
the Japanese regulatory efforts to cleanup the bad loans in the
banking sector as long as deflationary trends make bank profits
nonexistent. Because of Japanese banks large stock portfolio
Japanese bank asset position is extremely sensitive to rise or fall
of the Nikkei index. All this suggest progress may be slower than
expected and require greater discipline. If Japan bank debt is
lowered from 80 favourable to 40 unfavorable what can be the
impact? The impact is to lower the external or international points
sub-Index to 70 points from 72 points. The impact of this on the
USA Index which combines the 3 parts economy, behavioral and
external is to lower it by 1/2 point from 58.7 points to 58.2
points. Considering the renewed resolve and new mandate for Koizumi
to pursue bank and other reforms the Japan bank debt in the light
of Fukao's paper can be lowered to 60 (neutral) in which case the
impact on the USA Index can be small. The external sub-Index can be
71 points and the USA sub-index can be 58.5 points.
[0608] 2. China--Economy:
[0609] All Clips:
[0610] 1. Inflation Returns To China, Though Modest, A Sustained
Rise in Prices Is the First In Years, Leggett and Areddy, WSJ, Oct.
29, 2003.
[0611] 2. Mitsuhiro Fukao Interview referred to above.
[0612] In the case of China a low score for the economy of 20 was
because of misallocations of capital, poor quality of bank lending,
and risks in an overheating economy. Fukao in the interview
indicates that though China has a bad loan problem with its banks
similar to Japan's, the expansion in China is so large that the
momentum can sustain continued growth for some time. Leggett and
Areddy point to the effects of the expansion in curbing deflation.
If this is given a score of 60 given the effects on employment,
demand and inflation of economic expansion this can raise the China
component to 65 points from 55 points. The external index points
can be 75 Points up from 72 points and the USA Index can be 59.5
points up from 58.7 points.
[0613] 2. The behavioral sub-Index part of the USA sub-Index
remains unchanged as business confidence continues to see the
impact of new revelations in mutual funds (for example, Putnam
Funds) and inquiry into trading specialists at NYSE. No new events
for business uncertainty.
[0614] Initial Index, User Index and Expert Index Structure for
Each Country:
[0615] The Index just discussed is the Initial sub-Index for the
USA which provides a framework of topics, structure, events, clips,
content links, insight links, and accompanying commentary. It also
provides a methodology for calculating the Initial sub-Index,
weighting and averaging, hibernation principle for topics not
prominent for the particular period, and rolling topics principle
for the Index to include new topics that are prominent in the
particular period or periods. The term Initial is used for this
sub-Index as this sub-Index gets developed further with the
addition of the information collected from the User which is the
basis for the User sub-Index, and it also gets developed a second
time with the addition of information collected from experts which
is the basis for the Expert sub-index.
[0616] The User sub-Index is based on the information that is
collected from Users using the framework of the Initial sub-Index.
The Expert sub-Index is based on information collected from Experts
using the framework of the Initial sub-Index. Users and Experts are
selected by the originator and are selected with responsibility for
objectivity. In addition to information collected on the basis of
the Index framework, other information is collected as feedback
from Users and Experts and this is fed in an information loop back
to the Initial sub-Index for improvement.
[0617] The User sub-Index is now further disclosed. The User is
asked to provide his input on the clips or events or statement
about the event as appropriate. He can use the similar framework of
topics as the Initial sub-index and indicate for the clips or
events or statement about the event whether it was -2 strongly
unfavorable, -1 unfavorable, 0 neutral, +1 favorable, or +2
strongly favorable. Using the example of the unemployment component
of the economic portion of the Index this can be as follows. For
reference we bring up the clip sample from September/October 2003
that was used earlier in the Initial sub-Index for the unemployment
component of the economic portion of the Index.
[0618] Clip Sample from September/October 2003:
[0619] WSJ links:
[0620] 1. A Jobless Recovery?, Allan Meltzer Sep. 26, 2003.
[0621] 2. There's No Such Thing as a Jobless Recovery, Martin
Feldstein, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0622] 3. Clues to the Cure for Unemployment Begin to Emerge, David
Wessel, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0623] 4. Long a Drag on the Economy, Capacity Glut Begins to Ebb,
Greg Ip, Sep. 8, 2003.
[0624] Economist:
[0625] 5. Flying on One Engine, Zanny Beddoes, The Economist, Sep.
20 2003.
[0626] 6. The Misery of Manufacturing, The Economist, Sep. 27,
2003.
[0627] NYT Links:
[0628] 7. Slowing Stream of New Jobs Helps to Explain Slump, David
Leonhardt, Oct. 1, 2003.
[0629] 8. Rhetoric vies with Reality on a Hot Topic: Jobs, David
Leonhardt, Oct. 12, 2003.
[0630] 9. Overcapacity Stall New Jobs, Louis Uchitelle, Oct. 19,
2003.
[0631] Business Week Links:
[0632] 10. Jobs: The Turning Point Is Here, P40, Coy,Hof and Arndt,
Oct. 27, 2003.
[0633] 11. A Jobs Recovery, Yes. A Hiring Boom, No, Cooper and
Madigan, Oct. 20, 2003.
[0634] Insight Links:
[0635] WSJ Links:
[0636] 1. False Hopes for the Economy and False Fears, Edmund S.
Phelps, Jun. 3, 2003.
[0637] 2. Why U.S. Manufacturing Won't Die, Clare Ansberry, Jul. 3,
2003.
[0638] 3. If Current Recovery Loses Steam, Economy May Face Real
Trouble, Greg Ip, Aug. 19, 2003.
[0639] 4. Wall Street Journal Left Behind Series and Less Sweat
More Tech series of articles and reports including the
following:
[0640] a. A New Blue Collar World, Ansberry, Jun. 30, 2003.
[0641] b. Laid Off Factory Workers are Finding Many Jobs are Drying
Up for Good, Ansberry, Jul. 21, 2003.
[0642] For the first clip in WSJ clips by Allan Meltzer the
selected User can give his input From Strongly Unfavorable -2 to
Strongly Favorable +2. For example the statement the User can
respond to can be: "The Department of Labor's Establishment Survey
showing a job loss of 2.7 million jobs since President G. W. Bush
took office is misleading and incorrect. The Department of Labor's
Household Survey showing a much smaller job loss of 220,000 jobs is
closer to reality, and far more typical for a period with recession
and slow recovery. As the speed of recovery picks up the latter
loss will disappear by next year."
[0643] Under NYT links, the statement can be worded for example as
follows: "David Leonhardt provides examples of Democratic
exaggeration of huge job losses (3 million) and Republican
exaggeration of fairly small job loss based on the Labor
Department's Household Survey. But the reality he argues is that it
is nowhere near this political rhetoric. Yet he says we have
experienced the worst job loss in 20 years." The User can respond
from Strongly Favourable +2 to Strongly Unfavorable -2.
[0644] The results can be a collection of points for the selected
sample of Users. This can be averaged to get an average point score
for that question.
[0645] Similiarly the separate links for Greg Ip and Louis
Uchitelle on Capacity Glut Ebbing, and Overcapacity Stalling New
Jobs can be worded for User response. Users can also have access to
these clips and can be expected to have read them before
responding.
[0646] The Expert sub-Index is now discussed. For Experts, a more
sophisticated insight link such as Edmund Phelps (False Hopes for
the Economy and False fears, WSJ, Jun. 3, 2003) can be used in
addition to these clips and the article made accessible to Experts.
Another link for Experts is Weijan Shan's Living on Borrowed
Growth, WSJ, Oct. 7, 2003. Other aspects and calculation can be
similar to the User sub-Index and Initial sub-Index.
[0647] The Overall Index is now discussed in greater detail. The
Overall Index can be a combination of the Initial sub-index, the
User sub-Index and the Expert sub-index by averaging for all three
sub-Indexes, giving equal weight to each. A separate commentary can
accompany the Overall Index.
[0648] Commentary for the index is included as follows. The value
of this calculation of the Index is that it brings out several
critical insights that otherwise get buried in the vast daily flow
of information. First with the U.S., the score of 45 for the
behavioral aspect portion of the Index reflects the state of
corporate governance, transparency, ethics in business that
translate into confidence of investors and create a dynamic
environment for business. A continuous flow of revelations in the
media since the Enron affair, occurs almost daily, the latest being
the Grasso compensation affair and the lawsuits (for example,
Quattrone, Tyco). This has created a real barrier to sustaining the
recovery supposedly underway through the undermining of confidence
in business leaders. Surprisingly what appeared to be the greater
danger has come out better than expected. The Iraq reconstruction
has moved forward after the unanimous passage of the U.S. sponsored
UN resolution, the Congress mandate for $87 billion for Iraq, and
the Madrid conference with donor pledges for Iraq.
[0649] The profit recovery itself is cost cutting that translates
directly into the bottom line. So as with P&G its better
performance by elimination of some jobs, cost cutting and vigorous
competition with competitors such as Kimberly Clark and Colgate who
have as consequence shown poorer results. Pricing power is still
limited. Deflation continues to be a threat even though it received
less mention this quarter with core inflation up only 1.3%
(excluding food and energy costs for 12 months ending September
2003).
[0650] Better results for Intel were partly due to increased demand
in Asia--if Chinese growth slows will this be a temporary factor.
The strategic move to higher margin Centrino chips will continue to
help, so results can be mixed. Overall low confidence in business,
lack of pricing power, continued overcapacity( though mitigated
somewhat) especially in industries such as auto, the political
environment of deficits boosting, create a drag on sustained
recovery. This is reflected in the overall U.S. points Index level
of 58.7 points combining all three parts.
[0651] On the external aspect, the surprise is the score for China
visavis Japan. The points Index for Japan, 88 points (or 80 points
with resilience test), compared to the points Index for China of 55
points (or 65 points with resilience test). Because China's growth
has been extraordinary for the last decade and Japan's mediocre it
becomes intuitive to expect this to continue. But the point Index
shows the real dangers as China accelerates rates of growth even
further. Chinese banks have a large percentage of bad or
non-performing loans. Its banking system is fragile and can suffer
if a currency revaluation is not properly handled, pulling the U.S.
into the picture in terms of continued forbearance with a
undervalued Yuan. Weijian Shan, a partner at Newbridge Capital,
(Living on Borrowed Growth, WSJ, Oct. 7, 2003) quotes Standard and
Poor's estimate of $518 billion, or more than 40% of China's GDP to
clean up China's banking system. It only goes to show the weak
underpinnings of China's growth--overly dependent on foreign
investment, tendency to industry overcapacity and deflation, and a
fragile banking system. Japan's corporate sector is in the process
of being revitalized, Bank's forced to cleanup bad loans by the
government with a new mandate in recent elections, and Bank of
Japan pouring liquidity into the financial system to check
deflation. Japan appears to be moving in a positive direction
compared to China.
[0652] With the detailed consideration of information in the Index
and its structure such turning points and its early warning signs
are detected early. With this Index the tendency to overoptimism or
overpessimism skews one way or the other are also limited by
referring to basic factual information. Much of the best reports
and best media commentary are based on factual information, and
these facts organized in a certain structure bring out a picture
that is closer to what is really happening. The structure of the
Index forces information to be considered systematically in its
entirety as far as possible and with the detailed consideration of
critical information it gives a more complete picture than a
selective consideration of certain facts and omission of others
inherent in competing approaches without this discipline of topic
structure and detailed information and approach.
[0653] The Index according to the present invention has many unique
features.
[0654] 1. The Index shown here provides a consistent organized
framework with topic structure, selected information sources for
quality and reliability, selected clips of reports and of opinion
and events, detailed information, and Index calculation, so that
Users and Experts have a place to work in. Before Users and Experts
operate in disparate frameworks, bias and assumptions are not
spelled out, and in scattered locations. No "apples to apples"
organization for discussion and information collection is in place
so that communication is chaotic as if in different languages. The
Index shown here forces a level playing field on all players.
[0655] 2. Feedback loops operate to improve capture of information
from Users and Experts, so that Index product gets better with more
use of the information transmitted in the feedback loops,
iterations and practice, and improves level playing field for all
players.
[0656] 3. The international aspect is captured here in detail. The
international aspect is blended into the Index calculation for the
USA. In a global economy with trade flows back and forth between
USA, Europe and Asia, and with globalized manufacturing, design and
development of corporations, this integration is better reflected
in the USA sub-Index by incorporating this through the external
portion of the USA sub-Index, with components for China, Japan,
Germany, France and UK. Oil prices and supplies is incorporated
through the Middle East component of the external sub-index. Wars,
reconstruction, alliances, and terrorism are incorporated in the
behavioral aspect portion of the Index under uncertainty of
international political and economic factors. In the economic
portion of the Index, this international aspect is brought in under
1.3 heading of Dollar and current account deficit. This methodology
of blending in of the international aspect into the domestic USA
Index at different and appropriate locations is a unique feature of
this Index.
[0657] 4. Specific Behavioral Aspects are captured in the Initial
sub-index. Media sentiment in specific areas with clips
covering:
[0658] 1. Confidence in business--corporate governance, corporate
behaviors;
[0659] 2 Confidence in financial markets, in economy for
employment;
[0660] 3. Fairness and equity in management compensation, health
insurance for employees, incomes and unemployment;
[0661] 4. Uncertainty about domestic political and economic
factors, about interest rates, about deficits, unemployment, and
the economy in general;
[0662] 5. Uncertainty about international political and economic
factors, wars, reconstruction, alliances, free trade,
terrorism.
[0663] 5. The Index provides specific information from a clip, or
report of an event, or a specifically worded statement about an
event or article, before inviting a response from the User or
Expert. The responses are not made vaguely about better or worse
conditions in business or the economy as in existing Indexes (for
example, IFO, Tankan, Conference Board, Institute of Supply
Management).
[0664] 6. Another feature is the Rolling Topic where new topics
that have assumed prominence can be brought into the Index, some
topics that are not prominent for a particular period or periods
can be retained but hibernated (ie not scored), and some topics can
be omitted once they have declined in significance. Example: In the
Index calculation here corporate debt and corporate investment were
hibernated.
[0665] 7. Making results and the source detail such as the clips
and other information, etc, accessible. Clips selected are
accessible, Experts information accessible and User information
accessible. Content links and insight links from clips accessible
to Users. This provides extensive information and detail to
understand the results and be able to make changes where
appropriate and conduct simulations by the User that can provide a
customized perspective to the User. This is not currently possible
with any of the Indexes, and has the potential to become a very
important feature of this product.
[0666] 8. A critical difference is the linked information system
invention described earlier herein that supports the Index product.
The linked information system and the Index are designed for
electronic use and internet use unlike the other traditional Index
products.
[0667] 9. There is no User sub-Index and Expert sub-Index in the
manner set out here at this time with traditional methods. The
invention Initial sub-Index for the USA as calculated here with use
of clips and points assignment follows an entirely new concept,
structure, methodology and implementation.
[0668] User and Expert response sheet, and User and Expert
simulation sheet are now further discussed. The selected User or
selected Expert uses a response sheet on the internet provided by
the creator or originator of the Index to indicate his responses to
the clips, event described in clip or worded description inviting
response. The response sheet can make it possible for the User or
Expert to indicate his response in a convenient manner in a short
time, and concentrate his time and attention to reviewing the
clips, accessible linkages or other information on the event and
providing feedback or questions to the creator of the Index. A
response sheet is also used for the risk/opportunity boxes to
obtain User feedback in a convenient manner requiring minimal user
time.
[0669] A simulation sheet for Users and for Experts can also be
provided with the Initial sub-Index, User sub-Index, and Expert
sub-Index when they are released so that Users and Experts can make
changes where appropriate and conduct simulations to provide a
customized perspective to the User and the Expert in a minimal
amount of time. A Simulation Sheet is also provided with the
risk/opportunity boxes so that Users and Experts can make changes
to the assumptions, wording of the hypotheses, and conduct
simulations to provide a customized perspective to the User and the
Expert in a minimal amount of time. User and Expert feedback can be
used to improve the simulation sheets to make it easy to change at
appropriate locations and to quickly see the results of the
simulation.
[0670] The following is an example of the commentary that precedes
the Initial sub-Index that can be accessible to users as events
unfold and which tie into the Initial sub-Index when it is put out
on the internet website. In this case it relates to category 5
entitled international political and economic factors in the
behavioral aspect of the Index. It can help Users follow these
developments and later the Initial Index when it is put out. For
example: "Today's report on Blair shows that Blair is still popular
in UK and could win the next election leading at this time by 5
points in polls. Mr. Chirac has 51% of respondents expressing lack
of confidence in him and German polls show Mr. Schroeder trailing
the Christian Democrats by 12 points, 49 to 37 points. Mr.
Schroeder also suffered defeat in state elections in Bavaria last
week. Mr Schroeder indicated a change in policy towards supporting
U.S. efforts for reconstruction of Iraq in an interview with the
Wall Street Journal. The interview with the WSJ lasted an hour and
indicated a shift in German policy to U.S. led Iraq efforts. Maybe
the German polls and election results had something to do with
Schroeder's comments to the WSJ (Kempe and Champion, Sep. 18,
2003)."
[0671] FIG. 34A shows how an index and report on the behavioral
aspect of the markets is generated. Topics are identified at 3400
for sentiment that are critical in determining confidence in the
economy and markets. Information relevant to these topics is
gathered at 3402 and bibliography/commentary developed at 3404, and
this is accumulated for weekly, monthly perspective at 3406.
Further, this is categorized for a point system index at 3408.
Users, business leaders and experts are polled weekly at 3410 and
the information is fed back to 3400 to fine tune topic selection,
and is used for overall commentary at 3412. The report and index on
behavioral aspect of the markets is generated at 3414.
[0672] A hypothetical point system index constructed in this way is
shown in FIG. 34B. The topics chosen are seen as critical at a
particular time in determining confidence in the economy and
markets and are modified as the situation changes. In this example,
there is a negative shift of 1-5 points in business sentiment on a
behavioral aspect index. From September to October 2002 the overall
shift was negative, with negative sentiment inside the U.S. and
some positive sentiment outside the U.S.
[0673] Sentiment on each of the topics is shown in FIG. 34B. The
issues/questions under each topic are as follows:
[0674] (1) Negative sentiment with $100-200 billion estimated cost
of war in Iraq exacerbating deficits, and continuing deflationary
signs, and early signs of a housing bubble.
[0675] (2) Negative sentiment for industry with a focus on Ford
debt, Lucent layoffs, and Intel outlook.
[0676] (3) Negative sentiment on governance with SEC's Pitt
blundering on the Bigg's nomination.
[0677] (4) Negative for investor sentiment with continuously
declining stock markets.
[0678] (5) Externally somewhat positive sentiment with expert
opinion positive about a change of government in Brazil, and signs
of serious action on Japan's bank debt with appointment of Takenaka
to tackle this by Prime Minister Koizumi.
[0679] FIG. 35 shows the dissemination of a newsletter that is
provided to users by email. When subscribing to the service, the
user may optionally subscribe to the newsletter at 3500. The user
also provides personal information including desired information at
3502. Specifically, the user checkmarks issues, questions, and
decisions of interest and suggest additional updates at 3504. The
service provider is thus able to identify the most active issues,
questions, and decisions at 3506, and poll Users and use the
results to fine-tune information selection, tracking, and
organization at 3508.
[0680] When a User opens his email at 3510, he is able to view a
bibliographic type list of the relevant articles, reports and
opinion with commentary and expert opinion at 3512. The newsletter
may be distributed weekly or even nightly, and hyperlinks to
articles and/or source websites may be provided in the body of the
email. Where a hyperlink directly to an article is not provided, a
user may obtain full text access by going to the relevant website
of the source publisher, and entering the author name to search,
and the specific article identified by date. In the body of the
email or as an attachment, a user can also view a monthly index and
report on behavioral aspect of markets at 3514. User is offered the
option of adding his comments to the newsletter points at 3516 and
electronically mailing them to colleagues for information sharing
at 3518. Information about User preferences is followed to identify
the most active issues/questions/decisions and fine tune its
wording.
[0681] FIG. 36 shows how important patterns in information that are
evident and supported by facts and expert opinion are stated or
worded carefully as hypotheses at 3600. The information to support
or refute is followed and selected as it appears on a daily basis
at 3602. Some examples of hypotheses and evidence (taken on Jul. 1,
2002) are given below:
[0682] a. USA Hypothesis: Big shift in economy as cracks appear in
workings of capitalism, in transparency, governance, and
ethics.
[0683] Evidence: "Worldcom investigation focus shifts to ousted CEO
Ebbers," Wall Street Journal, Jul. 1, 2002, page 1.
[0684] b. South American Hypothesis: Will contagion affect the
region or is Argentine collapse a self-contained event?
[0685] Evidence: "Winning world cup will not help Brazilian
economic prospects," New York Times, Jul. 1, 2002.
[0686] c. Russian Hypothesis: Is it becoming more like the West? Is
it working to Integrate into the West?
[0687] Evidence: "Russia glances at West for its new Legal Code,"
New York Times, Jul. 1, 2002.
[0688] d. Chinese Hypothesis: Are old avenues of growth sputtering
(ex. town and village enterprises, agriculture)? Are no new paths
to growth in sight?
[0689] Is democracy (political participation) a major unmet
challenge?
[0690] Evidence: "Hong Kong's lack of political progress," Wall
Street Journal, Jul. 1, 2002.
[0691] e. European Hypothesis: Are cracks appearing in capitalism's
workings?
[0692] Evidence: "Vivendi CEO forced to resign," New York Times,
Jul. 1, 2002. "Failures of privatization in Europe," Economist,
Jul. 5, 2002.
[0693] Further according to the present invention, additional
evidence is collected over a period time, and relevant sentences
within each article are analyzed and marked if relevant to one or
more topics. The question is asked and answered as to whether the
hypothesis holds at 3604. If not, an analysis produces information
on what has changed at 3606, and this information leads to
generation of a new hypothesis at 3608. If the hypothesis holds
then a footprint trail (links) is built from the marked textual
evidence supporting the hypothesis at 3610. This confirmation leads
to the question at 3612-what are the implications? The answers
provide insights that are disseminated in the newsletter and the
website through the bibliographic list and book review commentary
at 3614.
[0694] The media content distribution system according to the
present invention is further discussed below with respect to a
web-based implementation. Therein, editor and user interfaces
combine with an index and retrieval system to accomplish
organization and distribution of media content according to the
present invention. It should be understood that the media content
distribution system according to the present invention, although
discussed in terms of automated access and distribution systems, is
not intended to limit the use of the method of present invention to
automation of any sort. Similarly, description of the present
invention in terms of a web-based environment is not intended to
limit the system of the present invention to an Internet
application.
[0695] Referring to FIG. 3, a media content distribution system
according to the present invention has an editor, or system
administrator, interface 300 and a user interface 302. Interfaces
300 and 302 mutually communicate as at 304 over a communications
network and according to functionality defined by the media content
distribution system. Accordingly, the media content distribution
system has an editor Graphical User Interface (GUI) 306 and a user
GUI 308 that provide the defined functionality.
[0696] On the editor side, the editor GUI 306 allows the editor to
perform several functions. For example, the editor GUI 306 provides
a source selection function 310 that allows the editor to select
and deselect sources of information over time. Also, the editor GUI
306 provides a topic definition function 312 that allows a user to
define topics according to objective and subjective themes in a
field of study, hypotheses developed by tracking information over
time, and other questions, issues, and decisions relating to the
field of study. Further, the editor GUI 306 provides a markup
function 314 that allows an editor to markup media content
according to its relevance to a topic and/or other media content.
Finally, the editor GUI 306 provides an organization function 316
that allows an editor to organize media content by grouping media
content by topic/category, creating links between media content and
media content, and/or ranking the media content according to it's
importance to a category and/or other media content. The
organization information thus generated is operable to
relationships between media content and provide access to the media
content for the user.
[0697] On the user side, user GUI 308 allows the user to perform
several functions. For example, user GUI 308 provides a selection
function 318 that allows a user to specify topics/categories of
interest to the user, such as a question, issue, or decision
relating to a field of study. Also, user GUI 308 provides a
receiving function 320 that allows a user to receive organization
information relevant to the specified topic along with any
available markup and, optionally, the associated media content.
Further, user GUI 308 provides a selection function that allows a
user to retrieve and view associated marked up media content by
selecting it using the organization information.
[0698] The editor GUI 306 of the present invention is discussed in
greater detail with reference to FIG. 4. Therein, the editor
communicates with server system 106 via various input devices 400,
such as a keyboard 400A, a microphone 400B combined with speech
recognition function 402, and a scanner 400C combined with text
recognition function 404. Using these input devices, the editor is
able to input textual media content that is available in hardcopy
406 and store it in an electronic media content database 408. The
editor is also able to browse the Internet 410 or other network for
media content in electronic form and/or use other capabilities of
server system 106, such as a DVD/CD ROM drive, fire wire port, or
other data transfer technology to access electronic media content.
Browsing the Internet 410 allows the editor to access various
online databases 412A, 412B, and 412C containing electronic media
content and thus determine availability of the electronic media
content on the Internet 410 for a user to access at leisure.
[0699] For each new source of media content, the editor can choose
to use source definition function 414 of the editor GUI 306 to
define a source, such as a single article, an online journal or
magazine, and/or a news/wire database, in association with a file
path leading to the source in database 408 or on the Internet 412.
In future browsing, the editor can set browsing function 416 of the
editor GUI 306 so that any keyword or other search is constrained
to search only defined sources and thus increase quality of the
search where sources are selected for quality.
[0700] Once the media content is located or stored in electronic
form, the editor is able to view it in browser window 414 of the
editor GUI 306. If the media content is new, a new cite object 500
(FIG. 5) is instantiated along with a new topics table object 504
and a new cites table object 506 serving as primary and secondary
links fields of cite object 500, respectively. Topics table object
504 and cites table object 506 are not initially expanded. Other
fields of cite object 500, such as a media content link field and a
set of date fields, can be automatically filled based on the file
path or url and the date, and/or left null or partially null to
allow the editor to fill those fields. The editor can enter
information (identifying text) about the media content in ID text
box 420, such as title, author, source, and date, to fill an ID
text field.
[0701] The editor is also able to use markup palette 422 to choose
various types of markup to lay over displayed media content using a
mouse and keyboard 400. Various types of highlighting, line
drawings, and text boxes are examples of types of markup that can
be made to overlay the displayed media content. For example, in
some cases, the editor may choose to highlight a section of media
content and then erase the highlight. Also, the editor may choose
to add text as a parenthetical statement explaining a contradiction
and/or incorporating a hypertext link to another part of the media
content and/or other media content. Further, the editor may choose
to write notes in a margin and/or draw an arrow from one
highlighted portion of the media content to another.
[0702] The editor can choose to use topic/category definition
function 424 of the editor GUI 306 to define a new topic, thereby
instantiating a new topics object 508 (FIG. 5) that is added to
existing topics objects 425. The topics object 508 is useful in
many ways. For example, the topics object 508 can store text
identifying its title, can store a hyperlink url for a user
discussion forum relating to the topic, can store a pointer to a
text file containing information about the topic that provides the
user with an overall perspective, and can store date fields
relating to creation and editing of the topic object. Also, the
topics objects 508 can serve as a defined category for grouping
information contained in media content, so that cite objects can
link directly or indirectly to topics objects 508 through topics
table objects 504.
[0703] The titles of all existing topics table objects 425 appear
in topic selection window 426. Topics selection window 426 allows
the editor to enter fields in the topics table object 504 (FIG. 5)
associated with the cite object. From among the selectable topics
of topic selection window 426, the editor can specify the topics to
which the displayed media content is relevant. Specifying relevance
of the displayed media content to a topic causes topics table
object 504 (FIG. 5) to automatically expand to store information
about how the displayed media content is relevant to the selected
topic, and there are two ways to store this information.
[0704] A first way the editor can indicate relevance of the
displayed media content to a selected topic is to specify a degree
of relevance (importance) in the form of a relevance score via
topic selection window 426. This relevance score is useful for
comparing relevance of the displayed media selection relating to
the specified topic to other media content also relevant to the
specified topic and having a relevance score. The system can be
engineered to equate a lower relevance score with a higher level
importance. The opposite also applies, in that the system may be
engineered to equate a higher relevance score with a higher level
of importance. Where a number is used, the editor must be aware of
choices made in engineering the system in order to properly use
this functionality, but the system might also be engineered so that
descriptive terms indicate the level of importance. Topics table
object 504 is able to store this relevance score in association
with the topic title.
[0705] A second way the editor can indicate relevance of the
displayed media content to a selected topic is to add markup to the
displayed media content respective of its relevance to the selected
topic. For example, clicking on an add button next to a selected
topic in topic selection window 426 creates a markup overlay file
427 containing the markup information and indexing information for
adding the markup to the displayed media content. Form and content
of the markup overlay file is discussed below with reference to
FIG. 8. This markup overlay file 427 is then stored in topics table
object 504 in association with the title of the selected topic. If
a new topic is selected, the same markup can be added with respect
to the newly selected topic. The editor can also erase some or all
of the current markup overlaying the displayed media content,
and/or add new markup, and then click on the add button next to the
newly selected topic to create a new markup overlay file 427 and
store a pointer to it in topics table object 504 in association
with the title of the newly selected topic.
[0706] The editor can also specify existing cites 428 to other
media content to which the displayed media content is relevant
using cite selection window 429. Therein, the editor can browse
available cites and select them as being relevant, thus causing
them to appear in cite selection window 429 and causing cites table
object 506 to expand by storing pointers to the other cite objects
associated with the selected cites. Similar to topics table object
504, cites table object 506 is also able to store information about
how the displayed media content is relevant to selected cites.
Particularly, and similar to use of topics selection window 426,
the editor can use cite selection window 429 to give a selected
cite a relevance score and create and store a markup overlay file
427 in cites table object 506.
[0707] The editor GUI 306 also has some other features, For
example, the editor GUI 306 has an ordering information text box
430 that allows the editor to enter text informing a user how to
obtain the media content off line, and/or how to subscribe to a
service that will allow the user to access the media content
online. Also, a time sensitivity factor pull down menu 432 allows
the editor to enter a numeral representing a degree to which the
information contained in the displayed media content is sensitive
to the passage of time. This time sensitivity factor can be used by
the system to generate a notification to the editor after an amount
of time specified by the time sensitivity factor that the cite
needs to be reviewed. Further, the editor GUI 306 has an add cite
button that allows the editor to create a new cite object by adding
the cite object 500 to existing cite objects 428 and/or indicating
that the cite creating process has been completed. Finally, the
editor GUI 306 has a cite editing function 434 that allows the
editor to edit existing cite objects 428 by changing information
such as links, relevance scores, and associated markup, or by
deleting one or more cite objects 428.
[0708] Referring to FIG. 6, the media content distribution system
according to the present invention is able to respond to user input
in the form of a topic selection 600 by communicating the topic
selection to a search and retrieval module 602. In turn, search and
retrieval module 602 is able to search the existing cite objects
428 and return as at 604 any cite objects 428 relevant to topic
five. For example, consider the case where a first cite object's
topics table object indicates that it is relevant to topic five
with a relevance score of nine, and a second cite object's topics
table object indicates that it is relevant to topic five with a
relevance score of four. Also, assume that a higher relevance score
indicates a higher level of importance. In this case, search and
retrieval module 602 compares the relevance scores and returns the
first cite object and the second cite object in an order according
to their respective relevance as at 428A. Additionally, search and
retrieval module 602 notes those markup overlay files among mark up
files 427A that are associated with the first and second cites'
relevance to topic five and returns the indicated markup overlay
files 427A1 in association with the associated cites of the
returned cites 428A.
[0709] Search and retrieval module 602 is also capable of returning
cites that are relevant to other cites. For example, extend the
previous considered case to the case where third, fourth, and fifth
cites have information stored in their cites table objects
indicating that they are relevant to the first cite. Also consider
that they have associated relevance scores of eight, nine, and
three, respectively. Further, consider that a sixth cite has
information stored in its cites table object indicating that it is
relevant to the fifth cite with a relevance score of six. In this
extended case, search and retrieval module 602 compares relevance
scores and returns the third, fourth, and fifth cite objects in an
order according to their respective relevance as at 428B and
preserves the relevance of the ordered cites at 428B to the first
cite in the form of a pointer. Search and retrieval module 602
further returns sixth cite as at 428C based on its relevance to the
third cite, and preserves the relevance of the sixth cites at 428C
to the third cite in the form of a pointer. Additionally, search
and retrieval module 602 notes those markup overlay files among
mark up files 427B that are associated with the third, fourth, and
fifth cites' relevance to the first cite and associated with the
sixth cite's relevance to the third cite and returns the indicated
markup overlay files 427B1 and 427B2 in association with the
associated cites of the returned cites 428B and 428C.
[0710] The user GUI 308 is explained in greater detail with
reference to FIG. 7, wherein a user can create an account using
registration function 700. Therein, a user can enter personal
information and specify topics of interest. In response to a user's
specification of a topic as a topic of interest, the media content
distribution system performs a search and retrieval function as
discussed above and the returned information is used to populate a
topic access window 702. Further, populated information fields of a
corresponding topic object are also used to populate the topic
access window 702. Using topic access window 702, a user can
receive an overview of the topic via perspective window 704. Also,
using bibliographic window 706A, the user can view ranked cites
that serve as hyperlinks leading to media content that is relevant
to the selected topic. Further, using bibliographic window 706B,
the user can view ranked cites that serve as hyperlinks leading to
media content that is relevant to another ranked cite. These
hyperlinks can be selected by the user to retrieve and display the
relevant media content with markup particularly point out the
relevant portion of the media content and indicating how the
particular portion of the media content is relevant. Experts can
also write articles discussing groups of cites, and this expert
feedback can be additionally incorporated into the ranked cites
viewable in bibliographic windows 706A and 706B.
[0711] Topic access window 702 also has other features. For
example, if a cite cannot serve as a direct hyperlink, then a
source website link function 708 may be employed along with
instructions on how to access the media content. Also, topic access
window 702 includes a user feedback function 710 that allows the
user to contact the editor, automatically adjust importance of a
cite, and/or initiate a new topic. Further, discussion forum link
function 712 allows a user to enter a discussion forum relating to
the selected topic and interact with other users and/or experts,
experience experts interacting with one another, take surveys, and
otherwise proffer additional user feedback. Finally, a user can
browse other related and unrelated topics using topic browsing
function 714. The editor can analyze this user/expert feedback and
decide whether to modify links and/or identify new or obsolete
trends or "footprints" of information.
[0712] Referring to FIG. 8, the manner by which a user is able to
view retrieved media content with markup is further detailed.
Therein, a user is served a markup viewer applet 800 through which
the user views retrieved media content. Thus, when the user
accesses the system server 106 through the Internet 410, and
selects a particular cite to viewable media content, then the
electronic file comprising the media content is transferred to the
markup viewer applet 800 from database 408 or database 412 on a
source website 804, along with the applicable mark up file 427. In
most cases, the markup viewer applet constructs a new electronic
file 802 comprising the media content with the markup added, and
displays the new file to the user.
[0713] The actual form of the markup information and the indexing
information in the markup file 427 is dependent on the type of
electronic file containing the media content and the technique used
to later add the markup to the media content. For example, with
media content available as a hypertext file corresponding to a web
page, it is reasonable to engineer the system to determine the type
of file and, in the case of a hypertext mark up file, create the
markup information as hypertext file snippets, and to create
indexing information that includes a textual comparison to marked
up portions of the file, and/or distances from the beginning and
end of the hypertext file. Furthermore, a technique is implemented
that receives the hypertext file and the markup overlay file and
generates a new hypertext file by inserting the hypertext markup
snippets in appropriate places as indicated by the indexing
information. Other types of files, such as PDF, BMP, and XML
require implementations and techniques that complement their
characteristics. For XML files, a similar implementation and
technique may be used. For other types of files, a screen capture
may need to be employed at one or more points in the process to
accomplish the objective. Another alternative may include
displaying the media content, and then displaying the markup
without removing the media content from the display, thereby
destructively interfering with display of the media content. Use of
FLASH technology is one of many ways to accomplish this aim. Also,
a portion of a file can be displayed in one window with another
window of the same or a different frame concurrently displaying
comments and/or other markup relevant to the displayed portion of
the file. Moreover, availability of these techniques makes it
possible to provide markup for media content that is already
available to users online without it being necessary to manually
markup hardcopy of files and create an additional database of image
files with large memory and bandwidth requirements. It also
eliminates the need to copy contents of an existing proprietary
database, thus removing the requirement for an editor to negotiate
with providers of such databases respective to such a need.
[0714] As discussed above, relevance scores of cites can be
adjusted in response to user feedback 208 and also in response to
the passage of time 908. A relevance score adjuster 910 can be used
to accomplish the first end by receiving user feedback 208 from
several users and recommending to the editor that a relevance score
be adjusted based on predetermined rules. For example, relevance
score adjuster 910 may have a threshold value that automatically
activates based on a number of users, so that when a given
percentage of users agree that the relevance score should be
adjusted, then the relevance score adjuster 910 can communicate the
user opinion to the editor. The relevance score adjuster can also
be employed to alert the editor in response to the passage of time
910 based on the time sensitivity factor associated with a cite.
For example, if a cite is highly time sensitive, then the relevance
score adjuster 910 can frequently recommend the cite for
reevaluation. If the editor chooses to remove a cite, other cites
relevant to a removed cite can also have their cite table objects
coincidentally automatically adjusted to remove any relevance
information relating to the removed cite.
[0715] It may be that some cites included in the media distribution
system according to the present invention do not serve as
hyperlinks to electronic media content owing to varying degrees of
availability of media content. Venn diagram 900 illustrates various
classes of availability of media content. Specifically, media
content may be available online, offline, or both. Also, some media
content may be freely available, such as United States court
decisions, available only for a fee as with European court
decisions, or available only to the user due, for example, to
copyright considerations and/or restricted access. For media
content that is available only to the user, whether available
online, offline, or both, cites 428 provide access to the media
content by providing ordering information to the user. On the other
hand, where media content is only available offline, the media
content can be put in electronic format and stored in database 408.
For media content incorporated into database 408 or available
online, cites 428 serve as hyperlinks to the media content. Markup
overlay files 427 can be used with most or all of the media content
available online or in database 428, but is also possible to markup
media content on a permanent or semi-permanent basis when storing
it in database 408. For example, a hardcopy of the media content
can be marked up manually with a permanent marker, and the hardcopy
scanned as an image file and stored in database 408.
[0716] A method according to the present invention of selectively
distributing media content based on availability of the media
content is discussed with reference to FIG. 10. The method begins
at 1000 and proceeds to step 1002, wherein input is received from a
user. If the received input corresponds to a topic selection, then
the method proceeds to step 1004, wherein a topic selection by a
user is recognized based on the received input. Proceeding
therefrom to step 1006, the method includes retrieving cites based
on the recognized selection and organization of the cites according
to the topics. The retrieved cites are communicated to the user at
step 1008, and the method returns to step 1002. When a retrieved
cite is selected by a user according to user input received at step
1002, then selection of a retrieved cite is recognized at step
1010. Depending on whether the corresponding media content is
already available online as at 1012, then if the media content is
already available online the method proceeds to step 1014, and
links to the media content at a source website. If the information
is freely available as at 1016, then the method ends at 1018.
Otherwise, the method records the hit on the source website for
billing purposes at step 1020 and ends at 1018.
[0717] The selective media content distribution system of the
present invention proceeds differently if the media content is not
already available online as at 1012. For example, if the media
content is stored in the database as at 1022, then the media
content is retrieved from the database at step 1024. The retrieved
media content is communicated to the user at step 1026, and the
method ends at 1018. If the media content is not stored in the
database at 1022, however, then the method proceeds to step 1028
and provides the user with ordering information sufficient to
identify the media content and, in some cases, direct the user to
an online ordering system. The method ends at 1018.
[0718] The server side information flow of a media content
distribution system according to the present invention is discussed
in greater detail with reference to FIG. 11. Therein, an
input/output module 1100 is operable to communicate selectable
topics and user discussion forums information 1101 to a user. It is
further operable to receive a topic selection 600 from a user
directly or in the form of a natural language query 1104. A
received natural language query 1104 is communicated to a topic
extractor 1106, wherein a keyword extractor 1108 generates
extracted keywords 1110 based on the natural language query 1108.
Thus, prepositions, articles, and other insignificant components of
the natural language query are discarded. A synonym mapper 1112
generates additional keywords based on the extracted keywords using
an electronic thesaurus, thereby generating mapped keywords 1114
comprising both the extracted keywords 1110 and synonyms for the
extracted keywords 1110. A topic correlator 1116 recognizes topics
based on mapped keywords 1114, and these recognized topics 1118
serve as a topic selection 600.
[0719] The topic selection 600 and the user's personal information
1120 (email address and billing information) are stored as user
data in an account database 1122. The topic selection(s) in the
account database, along with any cite selection 1102, are
communicated to search and retrieval module 602. Search and
retrieval module 602 searches cites 428 and retrieves cites 428,
markup 427, and/or media content 408 and communicates it to the
user as output information 1124. User feedback 208 is received by
input/output module 1100 and stored in feedback database 1126 for
discretionary use. An email generator 1128 is operable to
periodically access account database 1122 and generate an update
email 1130 based on the user data and using search and retrieval
module 602 and source web site links 1132.
[0720] Operation of email generator 1122 is further discussed with
reference to FIG. 12. In operation, update email generator 1128
accesses account database 1122 to determine user preferences and a
time of last access by a user. It then uses search and retrieval
module 602 to retrieve cites 428, media content 408, and/or markup
427 relating to topics 425 the user has designated as topics of
interest. The retrieved cites, markup, and/or media content, along
with any needed links to source websites 1132 are incorporated into
a personalized email for the user. Changes to the topic
perspective, recent addition of related topics, new expert
comments, new forums, and other news can also be added to the
update email 1130. A user receiving the update email 1130 can
immediately ascertain developments in topics of interest and view
media content as an attachment or through the Internet 410 on a
source website 804, without having to log into the user account and
access the media distribution system directly. The markup viewing
feature is particularly enabled where users download a markup
viewer applet and store it on their systems 1200 for use with
update emails 1130.
[0721] According to one embodiment, the present invention makes use
of a graphic user interface implementing a progressive,
organizational framework for viewing subtopics relating to a topic
in the form of hypotheses relating to potential outcomes. These
subtopics are preferably visually configured to convey a
risk/opportunity relationship, such that a bivalent spectrum is
defined with low risk and high opportunity at one end, and high
risk and low opportunity at the other end. These subtopics serve as
active windows to expert opinion, a bibliographic list of the most
relevant citations, and further, related, selectable subtopics,
such as underlying assumptions and/or an additional progressive,
organizational framework of subtopics to the selected subtopic. In
a preferred embodiment, selectable arrows communicating a present
shift in probable outcomes are displayed on the screen. Also,
frameworks for multiple, related topics and/or subtopics conveying
critical information are preferably layered in a three dimensional
fashion to quickly convey the information in a readily
understandable manner.
[0722] FIG. 37 shows a presently preferred implementation for
visually displaying the progressive, organizational framework
according to the present invention. This framework enables at a
glance a whole range of critical information and expert opinion on
a real time continuous basis. This range of critical information
corresponds to information useful for decision making in business
and government to make evolutionary decisions on a continual real
time basis. The example here is from economics, it is applicable to
other fields as well.
[0723] Boxes A, B, C, D and F, 3702-3710, each show critical
hypotheses, each worded differently to indicate a different result
from positive and high certainty to negative and high uncertainty
in a L shaped risk opportunity framework. In this example of the
economic recovery, the 5 hypotheses correspond to each box and span
the time frame for recovery from 6-12 months for box A the most
favorable, to 5-7 years the least favorable. The box in which the
arrow originates shows where the existing events and sentiment
place the economy. The box showing the tip of the arrow shows the
direction in which the economy is headed based on existing real
time information and opinion. The boxes on the horizontal axis show
increasing opportunity, and the boxes on the vertical axis show
increasing risk.
[0724] Clicking on each box shows the bibliographic information
pertaining to that box, and the set of assumptions behind the
hypothesis. The hypothesis is tested by users using news reports,
new information, peer and expert opinion.
[0725] In FIG. 38 a user initiates a search for information
relevant to a decision at 3800, and explicitly states recent
decisions and assumptions that bear on this decision at 3802. AT
3804 the user finds the relevant risk/opportunity box, and clicks
inside the box with the arrow or on the arrow itself at 3806. This
action brings up the bibliographic information and assumptions
inside the box at 3808. According to one embodiment, the arrow
itself represents a separate active window, such that clicking on
it reveals a set of assumptions and/or other information relating
to the existing real time information and opinion upon which the
arrow is based. At 3810 the user continues the search by finding
and accessing other risk/opportunity boxes and expert opinion. The
user further tests box assumptions with peer and expert opinion at
3812 and revises his own assumption set at 3814. A user feedback
loop is set up at 3816 to fine tune risk/opportunity box
information, wherein the user offers an opinion relating to
hierarchical organization of the media content, and the editor
decides whether and how to alter the hierarchical organization in
view of the offered feedback. Notably, the hierarchical
organization of the media content is based on relevance of portions
of media content to one another as revealed by an analysis of
internal dynamics of information expressed by media content over
time.
[0726] An example of the kind of recent bibliographic information
that can show up when user clicks on boxes C or D, 3706 or 3708, in
FIG. 37 follows. Only a few of the many citations are shown
here.
[0727] Inside Box C.
[0728] 1. The Unfinished Recession, a Survey of the World Economy,
Sep. 28, 2002, The Economist, cover story.
[0729] 2. After a Long Boom Weaknesses Appear in Housing Market
Barta, Wall Street Journal, Oct. 3, 2002, page 1.
[0730] 3. The Housing Boom's Dark Side, Business Week, Oct. 7,
2002, Vickers and Timmons, page 122.
[0731] 4. Fiscal Crises Force Status to Endure Painful Choices,
Gold and Gavin, Wall Street Journal, page 1, Oct. 7, 2002.
[0732] Inside Box D.
[0733] 1. Dealing with W, Paul Krugman, New York Times, Oct. 1,
2002.
[0734] 2. Japan and U.S.: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble, David
Leonhardt, New York Times, Oct. 2, 2002.
[0735] An example of an assumption set for box D at 3708 in FIG. 37
with the hypothesis-economy will recover in 3-5 years follows:
[0736] 1. Housing market is becoming a bubble. But the bubble will
come down gradually.
[0737] 2. Consumer spending will slow down.
[0738] 3. Budget deficits will continue for the next 3-5 years.
[0739] 4. Economic growth will be sluggish for the next 3-5 years,
but a Japanese style scenario of deflation and anemic growth will
be avoided.
[0740] 5. Corporate governance, ethics, transparency crises will
continue.
[0741] A second version of the visual feature for electronic screen
is with the risk/opportunity L shaped framework based on growth or
decline. FIG. 39 shows this framework for various industries. This
framework covers the range from industries in decline in Box F and
industries at risk, industries stagnant or profitless on the
vertical risk axis to industries in slow growth or high growth on
the horizontal opportunity axis. These topically-themed general
assignments are shown at 3902-3910, while specific topical
assignments are shown at 3912-3920.
[0742] Clicking on "auto" at 3916 brings up FIG. 40, with active
windows arrayed at 4002-4010. This shows Automaker J in decline in
Box F, and Automaker K in the high risk situation of Box D,
Automaker L in Box C of stagnant or profitless growth. Clicking on
Automaker K at 4008 brings up risk/opportunity L shaped framework
at 4012-4020. At 4018 the user sees the side of Automaker K which
puts it at risk, namely: Debt levels, Bonds Spread, Automaker K
Credit, Quality and Cost issues, and poor new model lineup. The
newly installed management team is the only positive aspect on the
horizontal opportunity axis.
[0743] FIG. 41 shows the risk/opportunity framework at 4102-4110 in
an international setting based on growth or decline. Topical themes
can be initially displayed, and individually or collectively
replaced with specific topical assignments and/or subtopic by
clicking on a particular box, as shown at 4112-4120. Clicking on
4110 countries in economic decline, for example, brings up 4120
showing Argentina and Uruguay. Similarly, clicking at 4106 Country
Stagnant brings up 4116 showing Japan and Brazil. An assumption set
(not shown) can be further displayed for a specific country at 4116
by clicking on the specific country.
[0744] This progressively organizational framework is continued on
FIG. 42. Clicking on Brazil at 4116 of FIG. 41 brings up the L
shaped risk/opportunity framework at 4202-4210 of FIG. 42 with
economy, politics and crime (Law and Society) on the vertical risk
axis, and industry and infrastructure on the horizontal opportunity
axis. Clicking on 4208 politics bring up the next framework showing
hypotheses at 4212-4220 about what effect the election of a new
administration will have on Brazil's successfully managing its huge
$240 billion debt load. The effects in terms of hypotheses are
shown as severe at 4220, difficult at 4218, moderate at 4214, and
positive at 4212. Clicking the arrow showing existing sentiment and
opinion and its direction, at 4218 or 4216, allows the user to
access bibliographic content, assumption set, and expert opinion
relating to the arrow and/or box(es). In this example, the
direction of the arrow shows sentiment moderating after initial
uncertainty and perceived risk.
[0745] A click on economy at 4210 brings up the risk/opportunity
framework shown at 4222-4230. Further clicking at 4226 shows
bibliographic information and expert opinion on the negative effect
of high interest rates on economic growth in Brazil.
[0746] FIG. 43 shows a layering type visual feature for the
electronic screen, wherein multiple topical frameworks are
displayed. The multiple topics corresponding to these frameworks
are interrelated by their ability to provide information relating
to a decision that a user needs to make. Thus, these topics may
correspond to a decision-based search result initiated by a user,
and/or to topics previously selected by a user for tracking as
topics of interest. This layering feature has many advantages. At a
glance, for example, a user can see the overall picture. With one
or two clicks the user can go back and forth between layers. The
user can further go to detail by clicking on a portion of a box and
clicking on the next box that appears as shown in the preceding
charts. This ability is especially useful when several
risk/opportunity L shaped frameworks are interrelated.
[0747] Detailed information, critical articles and expert opinion
can also be accessed by clicking inside the boxes. The
risk/opportunity framework of the boxes, gives an indication of
where the situation lies. Arrows from one box to an adjacent box
shows direction of a situation in real time. Finally, an assumption
test for each box provides underlying assumptions and some idea of
the strength of each assumption, so that the user can test the
assumptions with the help of peer and expert opinion and arrive at
better decision.
[0748] The present invention succeeds in providing users with easy
access to information of high quality and relevance compared to
previous technology. It should be understood that the presently
preferred embodiment is a product of current technology and
prevailing market forces. Thus, variations that do not depart from
the gist of the invention are intended to be within the scope of
the invention.
* * * * *