U.S. patent application number 09/681298 was filed with the patent office on 2002-08-22 for methods and systems for rapid deployment of a valuation system.
Invention is credited to Dingman, Brian N., Edgar, Marc Thomas, Johnson, Christopher Donald, Messmer, Richard Paul, Steward, William Cree.
Application Number | 20020116236 09/681298 |
Document ID | / |
Family ID | 26869441 |
Filed Date | 2002-08-22 |
United States Patent
Application |
20020116236 |
Kind Code |
A1 |
Johnson, Christopher Donald ;
et al. |
August 22, 2002 |
Methods and systems for rapid deployment of a valuation system
Abstract
An integrated system organizes a company's experiences,
operating procedures, best practices, information sources,
competitive information and analytical tools. The goal is
increasing profitability within a due diligence process while
facilitating ongoing operations. The system incorporates a method
for collaborating on due diligence issues to affect knowledge
building within due diligence teams. The method includes accessing
stored, accumulated knowledge in a repository from prior due
diligence exercises, applying to due diligence decisions criteria
based on consolidated analytical building blocks of past due
diligence exercises and storing newly accumulated knowledge from
the current due diligence exercise into the repository of
accumulated knowledge. Access to this information is available
globally via the internet as well as locally.
Inventors: |
Johnson, Christopher Donald;
(Clifton Park, NY) ; Messmer, Richard Paul;
(Rexford, NY) ; Steward, William Cree; (Norwalk,
CT) ; Edgar, Marc Thomas; (Glenmont, NY) ;
Dingman, Brian N.; (Gloversville, NY) |
Correspondence
Address: |
JOHN S. BEULICK
C/O ARMSTRONG TEASDALE, LLP
ONE METROPOLITAN SQUARE
SUITE 2600
ST LOUIS
MO
63102-2740
US
|
Family ID: |
26869441 |
Appl. No.: |
09/681298 |
Filed: |
March 14, 2001 |
Related U.S. Patent Documents
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Application
Number |
Filing Date |
Patent Number |
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09681298 |
Mar 14, 2001 |
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09741211 |
Dec 19, 2000 |
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60173695 |
Dec 30, 1999 |
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Current U.S.
Class: |
705/7.11 ;
705/64 |
Current CPC
Class: |
G06Q 10/0631 20130101;
G06Q 40/025 20130101; G06Q 10/06 20130101; G06Q 10/063 20130101;
G06Q 40/00 20130101; G06Q 40/06 20130101; G06Q 20/382 20130101 |
Class at
Publication: |
705/7 ;
705/64 |
International
Class: |
G06F 017/60 |
Claims
What is claimed is:
1. A method for collaborating on due diligence issues to affect
efficient knowledge building within due diligence teams, said
method comprising the steps of: accessing stored, accumulated
knowledge in a repository from prior due diligence exercises;
applying to due diligence decisions criteria based on consolidated
analytical building blocks of past due diligence exercises; and
storing newly accumulated knowledge from the current due diligence
exercise into the repository of accumulated knowledge.
2. A method according to claim 1 wherein said step of accessing
stored, accumulated knowledge in a repository further comprises the
step of accessing a suite of at least one of business processes,
computer systems, analytical tools, financial models, data
manipulation tools, business process tools, methodologies and
analytics.
3. A method according to claim 1 wherein said step of accessing
stored, accumulated knowledge in a repository further comprises the
step of accessing a high level map and associated descriptions of
the roles and responsibilities within the due diligence team such
that team members can see who has functional responsibilities, how
the team members as individuals fit into the due diligence team and
who to contact for information.
4. A method according to claim 1 wherein said step of applying to
due diligence decisions criteria based on consolidated analytical
building blocks further comprises the step of accessing a due
diligence project timeline with milestones and tasks arranged as at
least one of Gantt charts, PERT charts and text such that key
deliverable timing is developed at the beginning of the due
diligence project with inputs from due diligence team members.
5. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of
accessing a project feedback mechanism including graphical
indicators for tracking key due diligence deliverables of at least
one of types and quantities of underwriting completed, total
project budget and status of deliverables.
6. A method according to claim 5 wherein said step of accessing a
project feedback mechanism further comprises the step of accessing
a due diligence project calendar with notable local and global
dates identified.
7. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of
storing contact information of due diligence team members and
collaborators of at least one of telephone numbers, e-mail address
and postal address information.
8. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of
storing a due diligence project to do list and status for items on
the to do list.
9. A method according to claim 1 wherein said step of storing newly
accumulated knowledge further comprises the step of creating a
shared storage place for various due diligence functions to store
project files and information such that team members and
collaborators can access and retrieve the information.
10. A method according to claim 1 wherein said step of storing
newly accumulated knowledge further comprises the step of creating
an information flow map that identifies sources and uses of
information utilized to make due diligence decisions.
11. A method according to claim 1 wherein said step of accessing
stored, accumulated knowledge further comprises the step of
accessing historical best practices, collated and codified from
past due diligence exercises.
12. A method according to claim 1 wherein said step of accessing
stored, accumulated knowledge further comprises the step of
accessing a database of relevant valuation information and facts
associated with the due diligence to evaluate a portfolio of
assets.
13. A system for enabling a due diligence team collaborating on due
diligence issues to obtain efficient knowledge building, said
system comprising: at least one computer; at least one server
configured to store accumulated knowledge in a repository from
prior due diligence exercises, apply consolidated analytical
building blocks of past due diligence exercises to due diligence
decision criteria and store newly accumulated knowledge from the
current due diligence exercise into the repository of accumulated
knowledge; and a network connecting said at least one computer to
said server, said server further configured to access information
over the Internet.
14. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with a suite of at least one of business processes, computer
systems, analytical tools, financial models, data manipulation
tools, business process tools, methodologies and analytics.
15. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with a high level map and associated descriptions of the roles and
responsibilities within the due diligence team such that team
members can see who has functional responsibilities, how the team
members as individuals fit into the due diligence team and who to
contact for information.
16. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with a due diligence project timeline with milestones and tasks
arranged as at least one of Gantt charts, PERT charts and text to
develop key deliverable timing with input from due diligence team
members.
17. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with a project feedback mechanism including graphical indicators
for tracking key due diligence deliverables of at least one of
types and quantities of underwriting completed, total project
budget and status of deliverables.
18. A system according to claim 17 wherein said server configured
with a due diligence project calendar with notable local and global
dates identified.
19. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with contact information of due diligence team members and
collaborators of at least one of telephone numbers, e-mail address
and postal address information.
20. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with a due diligence project to do list and status for items on the
to do list.
21. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with a shared storage place for various due diligence functions to
store project files and information such that team members and
collaborators can access and retrieve the information.
22. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with an information flow map that identifies sources and uses of
information utilized to make due diligence decisions.
23. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with historical best practices, collated and codified from past due
diligence exercises.
24. A system according to claim 13 wherein said server configured
with a database of relevant valuation information and facts
associated with the due diligence to evaluate a portfolio of
assets.
25. A computer configured to provide a due diligence team
collaborating on due diligence issues with efficient knowledge
building, said computer programmed to: store accumulated knowledge
in a repository from prior due diligence exercises; apply
consolidated analytical building blocks of past due diligence
exercises to due diligence decision criteria; and store newly
accumulated knowledge from the current due diligence exercise into
the repository of accumulated knowledge.
26. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with a suite of at
least one of business processes, computer systems, analytical
tools, financial models, data manipulation tools, business process
tools, methodologies and analytics.
27. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with a high level
map and associated descriptions of the roles and responsibilities
within the due diligence team such that team members can see who
has functional responsibilities, how the team members as
individuals fit into the due diligence team and who to contact for
information.
28. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with a due
diligence project timeline with milestones and tasks arranged as at
least one of Gantt charts, PERT charts and text to develop key
deliverable timing with input from due diligence team members.
29. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with a project
feedback mechanism including graphical indicators for tracking key
due diligence deliverables of at least one of types and quantities
of underwriting completed, total project budget and status of
deliverables.
30. A computer according to claim 29 programmed with a due
diligence project calendar with notable local and global dates
identified.
31. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with contact
information of due diligence team members and collaborators of at
least one of telephone numbers, e-mail address and postal address
information.
32. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with a due
diligence project to do list and status for items on the to do
list.
33. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with a shared
storage place for various due diligence functions to store project
files and information such that team members and collaborators can
access and retrieve the information.
34. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with an information
flow map that identifies sources and uses of information utilized
to make due diligence decisions.
35. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with historical
best practices, collated and codified from past due diligence
exercises.
36. A computer according to claim 25 programmed with a database of
relevant valuation information and facts associated with the due
diligence to evaluate a portfolio of assets.
37. A computer program embodied on a computer readable medium to
provide a due diligence team collaborating on due diligence issues
with efficient knowledge building to avoid unnecessary travel to
due diligence sites, said computer program comprising a code
segment that sets up a directory structure to organize information
into a centralized database and provides users access to a specific
set of data stored in the centralized database to facilitate
decision making in response to an inquiry.
38. The computer program as recited in claim 37 further includes a
code segment that: manages the information in the centralized
database; manages project timeline with milestones and tasks
arranged in a standardized project management format; and provides
feedback to various participants in an easily readable set of
graphical indicators to track project deliverables.
39. The computer program as recited in claim 38 wherein the code
segment that manages the information in the centralized database
further includes a code segment that: identifies sources and uses
of the information which will be utilized to make decisions on due
diligence objectives; accumulates the information on at least one
of financial models, business methodologies, business process
tools, historical data on best practices, relevant valuation
information, and transactional facts based information into the
centralized database; and maintains the database by adding,
deleting and updating information to keep the project files in such
a fashion to allow collaborators easy access to global
information.
40. The computer program as recited in claim 38 wherein the code
segment that manages project timeline further includes a code
segment that manages at least one of a project feedback mechanism,
a project calendar, project contact information with team members
and collaborators' information, project "to do" list and
status.
41. The computer program as recited in claim 40 wherein the code
segment that manages project timeline further includes a code
segment that manages at least one of high level organizational
chart showing roles and responsibilities of collaborators,
relationship among various collaborators and how they fit into
overall organization scheme, and information on whom to contact for
information.
42. The computer program as recited in claim 37 further includes a
code segment that generates management reports.
43. The computer program as recited in claim 37 further includes a
code segment that provides flexibility to an administrator to
modify user profile information.
44. The computer program as recited in claim 37 further includes a
code segment that provides online help to the user by downloading a
user manual on to a client device.
45. The computer program as recited in claim 37 further includes a
code segment that organizes information within the centralized
database under at least one of a Deal Valuation section, a
Dashboards section, a Dictionary section, a Tool Library section, a
Pitch Repository section, a Collaborative Workspace section, and a
Post Mortem section.
46. The computer program as recited in claim 37 further includes a
code segment that retrieves information by accessing various other
links.
47. A computer program embodied on a computer readable medium for
managing due diligence, said computer program capable to be
processed by a server system coupled to a centralized interactive
database and at least one client system, comprising: a code segment
that receives information; a code segment that enters the
information into a centralized database; a code segment that stores
the information into the centralized database and cross-reference
the information against unique identifiers; and a code segment that
provides the information in response to an inquiry.
48. The computer program as recited in claim 47 wherein the network
is a wide area network operable using a protocol including at least
one of TCP/IP and IPX.
49. The computer program as recited in claim 47 wherein the
information is received from the user via a graphical user
interface.
50. The computer program as recited in claim 47 further includes a
code segment that provides the information based on access
levels.
51. The computer program as recited in claim 47 further includes a
code segment that monitors interaction between various
collaborators during due diligence.
52. The computer program as recited in claim 47 includes a code
segment that displays information through an HTML document
downloaded by the server system.
53. The computer program as recited in claim 47 further comprising:
a code segment that accesses the centralized database; a code
segment that searches the database regarding the specific inquiry;
a code segment that retrieves information from the database; and a
code segment that causes the retrieved information to be displayed
on the client system.
54. The computer program as recited in claim 47 wherein the client
system and the server system are connected via a network and
wherein the network is one of a wide area network, a local area
network, an intranet and the Internet.
55. The computer program as recited in claim 47, and further
comprising a code segment that monitors the security of the system
by restricting access to unauthorized individuals.
56. A centralized database comprising: data corresponding to
various projects; data corresponding to flow maps identifying
sources and uses of the information; data corresponding to
financial models and business process tools; data corresponding to
best practices; and data corresponding valuation process and
underwriting.
57. A database according to claim 56 wherein said database is
checked for data integrity frequently and provides access to
individuals based on predefined criteria.
58. A database according to claim 56 wherein said database further
configured to be protected from access by unauthorized individuals.
Description
CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS
[0001] This application is a continuation-in-part of U.S. patent
application Ser. No. 09/741,211, filed Dec. 19, 2000, which is
incorporated herein by reference. The patent application Ser. No.
09/741,211, filed Dec. 19, 2000, claims the benefit of U.S.
Provisional Application No. 60/173,695, filed Dec. 30, 1999, which
is also hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety.
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
[0002] This invention relates generally to valuation methods for
financial instruments and more particularly to rapid valuation of
large numbers of financial instruments.
[0003] A large number of assets such as loans, e.g., ten thousand
loans or other financial instruments, sometimes become available
for sale due to economic conditions, the planned or unplanned
divestiture of assets or as the result of legal remedies. The sale
of thousands of commercial loans or other financial instruments
sometimes involving the equivalent of billions of dollars in assets
must sometimes occur within a few months. Of course, the seller of
assets wants to optimize the value of the portfolio, and will
sometimes group the assets in "tranches." The term "tranche" as
used herein is not limited to foreign notes but also includes
assets and financial instrument groupings regardless of country or
jurisdiction.
[0004] Bidders may submit bids on all tranches, or on only some
tranches. In order to win a tranche, a bidder typically must submit
the highest bid for that tranche. In connection with determining a
bid amount to submit on a particular tranche, a bidder often will
engage underwriters to evaluate as many loans as possible within a
tranche and within the available limited time. When the time for
submitting a bid is about to expire, the bidder will evaluate the
loans underwritten at that time, and then attempt to extrapolate a
value to the loans that have not then been analyzed by the
underwriters.
[0005] As a result of this process, a bidder may significantly
undervalue a tranche and submit a bid that is not competitive or
bid higher than the underwritten value and assume unquantified
risk. Of course, since the objective is to win each tranche at a
price that enables a bidder to earn a return, losing a tranche due
to significant undervaluation of the tranche represents a lost
opportunity.
[0006] Currently, business enterprises assess an acquisition or
sale of assets and portfolios of assets on rapid schedules and
often at great distances and varying time zones from the general
management teams and functional heads which typically approve the
offers for purchase or sale of these assets. Employees, partners
and collaborators associated with the due diligence regarding the
purchase of the assets are typically brought together for a
relatively short duration of time to accomplish the due diligence.
Typically due diligence activity is conducted in physical proximity
to the sources of information associated with the assets. The
collaborating personnel often do not have the benefit of training
or knowledge of the complete set of analytical tools at their
disposal nor do they have "best practices" from previous efforts of
a similar nature.
[0007] Consolidation of employees and collaborators into a remote
physical location for the duration of the due diligence effort is
time consuming and expensive. In addition, persons on due diligence
teams search for data and processes in an ad hock fashion,
typically relying on a small subset of other personnel who have
detailed information about information sources, underwriting,
analytical tools, reports, and completed analysis. The subset of
individuals who have the information become bottlenecks within a
due diligence time line, driving up due diligence costs and adding
time that could have otherwise been invested in more value added
due diligence. Core information relevant to an asset portfolio bid
is typically consolidated in a well controlled physical location,
sometimes referred to as a war room.
[0008] It would be desirable to have a collaboration mechanism that
brings the best of a company's previous experience and knowledge to
bear on due diligence issues and that allows teams to become
knowledgeable efficiently when considering assets purchases and to
consolidate analytical building blocks in a repository that may be
deployed quickly in future purchase deliberations, without the time
and expense of the known war room approaches.
BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
[0009] An integrated Internet based system, which organizes a
company's experiences, operating procedures, best practices,
information sources, competitive information and analytical tools
on a server for easy storage and retrieval is disclosed. The
invention is a method and a system to make available to a globally
dispersed team, all of the real time analytical information and
processes on a continuous basis over the worldwide web. In practice
the goal when using the tool is to increase the profitability of an
entity in a due diligence process while facilitating the ongoing
operations for which the due diligence team members are
responsible.
[0010] In an exemplary embodiment, invention is a method for
collaborating on due diligence issues to affect efficient knowledge
building within due diligence teams. The method includes the steps
of accessing stored, accumulated knowledge in a repository from
prior due diligence exercises, applying the accumulated knowledge
to due diligence decisions criteria based on consolidated
analytical building blocks of past due diligence exercises, and
storing newly accumulated knowledge from the current due diligence
exercise into the repository of accumulated knowledge for future
use.
[0011] In another exemplary embodiment, the invention is a system
to implement the process for managing due diligence. The system
includes a computer, at least one server connected via network to
the computer, the server having the connectivity to access global
information over the internet. The system is configured to store
accumulated knowledge in a repository from prior due diligence
exercises, apply consolidated analytical building blocks of past
due diligence exercises to due diligence decision criteria and
store newly accumulated knowledge from the current due diligence
exercise into the repository of accumulated knowledge.
[0012] In yet another exemplary embodiment, the invention is a
computer program embodied on a computer readable medium. The
computer program includes a code segment that sets up a directory
structure to organize information into a centralized database and
provides users access to a specific set of data stored in the
centralized database to facilitate decision making in response to
an inquiry. The computer program is capable of managing the
information in the centralized database, managing project timeline
with milestones, and providing the feedback to various participants
in an easily readable set of graphical indicators to track project
deliverables.
[0013] In yet a further embodiment, the invention is a centralized
database which includes data corresponding to various projects,
flow maps identifying sources and uses of the information,
financial models and business process tools, best practices,
valuation process and underwriting.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0014] FIG. 1 is a flow diagram illustrating a known process for
valuing a portfolio of loans;
[0015] FIG. 2 is a flow diagram illustrating valuing a portfolio of
loans in accordance with one embodiment of the present
invention;
[0016] FIG. 3 is a flow diagram illustrating, in more detail, one
embodiment of a first portion of a rapid valuation process for
large loan portfolios that breaks loans into categories of
variance;
[0017] FIG. 4 is a flow diagram illustrating a second portion of a
rapid valuation process for a large loan portfolios that aggregates
from a basis to a tranche or portfolio basis;
[0018] FIG. 5 illustrates a probability distribution for exemplary
assets whose recovery value is inferred;
[0019] FIG. 6 is a flow diagram of a supervised learning step of
the process of FIG. 3;
[0020] FIG. 7 is a flow diagram of an unsupervised learning step of
the process of FIG. 3;
[0021] FIG. 8 is an embodiment of the process for unsupervised
learning;
[0022] FIG. 9 is an embodiment of the generation 1 (first pass)
rapid loan valuation process;
[0023] FIG. 10 is a flow diagram of a fuzzy clustering method used
in the unsupervised learning of FIG. 8;
[0024] FIG. 11 is a pair of tables showing an example of model
selection and model weighting for a rapid loan evaluation
process;
[0025] FIG. 12 is a table showing exemplary attributes for a rapid
loan valuation process;
[0026] FIG. 13 is a flow diagram of an exemplary clustering method
for a rapid loan valuation process;
[0027] FIG. 14 is a system diagram; and
[0028] FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating due diligence tools and
processes.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
[0029] FIG. 1 is a diagram 10 illustrating a known process for
valuing a large portfolio of assets 12 through an underwriting
cycle and through to making a bid for purchasing asset portfolio
12, for example, in an auction. FIG. 1 is a high level overview of
a typical underwriting and extrapolation process 10 which is not
iterative and not automated. In diagram 10, underwriters underwrite
14 a number of individual assets from portfolio 12 to generate an
underwritten first portion 16 and an untouched remainder portion
18. Before any of the assets are underwritten, first portion 16 is
zero percent and remainder portion 18 is one hundred percent of
portfolio 12. As the underwriting process progresses, first portion
16 increases and remainder portion 18 decreases. The objective is
to underwrite as many assets as possible before a bid is submitted
for the purchase of asset portfolio. The team of underwriters
continues individually underwriting 14 until just before a bid must
be submitted. A gross extrapolation 20 is made to evaluate
remainder portion 18. The extrapolated value 20 becomes the
non-underwritten inferred value 24. The gross extrapolation
generates a valuation 24 for remainder portion 18. Valuation 22 is
simply the total of the individual asset values in first portion
16. However, valuation 24 is a group valuation generated by
extrapolation and may be discounted accordingly. Valuations 22 and
24 are then totaled to produce the portfolio asset value 26.
Valuation processes are performed on each tranche of the
portfolio.
[0030] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating one embodiment of a system
28 for rapid asset valuation. Included in FIG. 2 are
representations of process steps taken by system 28 in valuating
asset portfolio 12. System 28 individually evaluates ("touches")
every asset, except for a very small quantity 30 of untouched
assets considered statistically insignificant or financially
immaterial. Specifically, all assets in portfolio 12 other than
quantity 30 undergo an iterative and adaptive valuation 32 in which
the assets in portfolio 12 are individually valued, listed
individually in tables and then selected from the tables and
grouped into any desired or required groups or tranches for bidding
purposes (as described below.) As in diagram 10, underwriters begin
a full underwrite 14 of individual assets in portfolio 12 to
produce a fully underwritten first portion 16 of assets.
Underwriters also underwrite 34 a sample of assets in a second
portion 36 of portfolio 12, and a computer 38 statistically infers
40 value for a third portion 42 of portfolio 12. Computer 38 also
repetitively generates 44 tables (described below) showing values
assigned to the assets in portions 16, 36 and 42 as described
below. In one embodiment, computer 38 is configured as a stand
alone computer. In another embodiment, computer 38 is configured as
a server connected to at least one client system through a network
(shown and described in FIG. 14), such as a wide-area network (WAN)
or a local-area network (LAN).
[0031] For example, and still referring to FIG. 2, an unsampled and
non-underwritten portion 46 of a third portion 42 of portfolio 12
is subjected to a statistical inference procedure 40 using fuzzy-C
means clustering ("FCM") and a composite
High/Expected/Low/Timing/Risk ("HELTR") score to generate two
categories 48 and 50. HELTR is defined as H-High cash flow,
E-Expected cash flow, L--Low cash flow, T--Timing of cash flow (for
example in months: 0-6, 7-18, 19-36, 37-60), and R--Risk assessment
of borrower (9--boxer used by credit analysts). Category 48 is
deemed to have sufficient commonality for evaluation as a whole.
Category 50 is further divided into clusters 52 and 54 that are, in
turn, further subdivided. Cluster 52 is divided into subclusters 56
and 58, while cluster 54 is subdivided into subclusters 60, 62 and
64. Cluster and subclusters are shown both in i "tree" chart 66 and
as boxes in valuation block 68. These individual asset values are
then regrouped into tranches 70, 72 and 74 for bid purposes. Any
number of tranches could be assembled in any arrangement set by the
seller.
[0032] Individual asset data (not shown) for each asset in
portfolio 12 is entered into a database 76 from which selected data
78 is retrieved based on a given criteria 80 for the iterative and
adaptive process 32. When criteria 80 is established for valuation
of any asset, that established criteria 80 is stored in database 76
for use in valuating other asset data in database 76 which shares
such an established criteria. Iterative and adaptive valuation
process 32 thus develops 82 valuations (described below) and groups
84 them for use in bidding.
[0033] FIGS. 3 and 4 together form a flowchart 85 illustrating a
functional overview of one embodiment of system 28 (shown in FIG.
2) for evaluation of a large asset portfolio 12. Valuation
procedures 14, 34 and 40 (see also FIG. 2) are simultaneously and
sequentially used in system 28 in a manner described below. As
described above, full underwriting 14 is a first type of valuation
procedure. Grouping and sampling underwriting 34 with full
underwriting of the samples is a second type of valuation
procedure. Statistical inference 40 is a third type of valuation
procedure, which is an automated grouping and automated valuation.
Procedures 14, 34 and 40 are based on objective criteria
established as described below.
[0034] "Underwriting" as used herein means a process in which a
person ("underwriter") reviews an asset in accordance with
established principles and determines a current purchase price for
buying the asset. During underwriting, the underwriter uses
pre-existing or established criteria 80 for the valuations.
"Criteria" means rules relevant to asset value and a rating based
on such categories. For example, as a criteria, an underwriter
might determine three years of cash flow history of the borrower to
be a category of information relevant to asset valuation and might
give a certain rating to various levels of cash flow.
[0035] Full underwriting 14 is done in two ways, a full cash basis
manner 86 and a partial cash basis manner 88. Both full cash basis
manner 86 and partial cash basis manner 88 start with sets 90 and
92 of assets that are fully individually reviewed 14 (see FIG. 2).
Such full review 14 is usually due to the large dollar, or other
appropriate currency, amounts of the assets being reviewed relative
to other assets in the portfolio or due to the borrower being so
well known or so reliable that the assets can be quickly and
reliably fully underwritten or the assets are marked to market such
that there is very little variance associated with the value of
said assets. Asset set 90 is evaluated by underwriters 94 and each
asset in set 90 receives a valuation with very little variation
such as an asset backed with cash or a tradable commodity with full
cash value and is placed in a full value table 96. Selected
individual values for assets in table 96 are stored as a fully
underwritten group value 98.
[0036] Set 92 is evaluated by a team of underwriters 100, which
could be the same as team 94, but each asset receives a discounted
or partial value and is placed in a partial value table 102.
Selected individual values for assets in a tranche in table 102 are
stored as a partial value fully underwritten group value 104.
Criteria 80 (shown in FIG. 2) for full cash basis manner 86 and
partial cash basis manner 88 are stored in database 76 (shown in
FIG. 2) in a digital storage memory (not shown) of computer 38
(shown in FIG. 2) for use in supervised learning 206 and
unsupervised learning 208 of automated valuation 40.
[0037] Sampling underwriting 34 is accomplished using two
procedures, a full sampling 106 procedure and a partial sampling
108 procedure. Full sampling 106 is utilized for categories of
large assets and includes a one hundred percent sampling 110 of the
sample groups in the categories of assets being sampled. The assets
in full sampling 106 are not individually underwritten but rather
are underwritten in fall sampling groups 112 based on a determined
commonality. A resulting full sampling group valuation (not shown)
is created and then desegregated based on a rule 114 to generate an
individual full sample asset value table 116. Individual full
sample asset values in table 116 are then uploaded electronically
into any full sampling group valuation 118 required for bidding as
suggested by the grouping of assets in a tranche. The number of
assets in an underwriting sample grouping can be as little as one
to any number of assets. Partial sampling 108 is for medium
categories of assets and includes forming a cluster sample group
120 by one hundred percent sampling of a representative group from
within a cluster of the groups being sampled and random sampling of
the other groups in the cluster. In partial sampling 108, all
groups are sampled, but some are partly valued by extrapolation
from cluster sample group 120. Partial sampling 108 includes an
asset level re-underwrite 122 with manual data entry 125 to produce
an alpha credit analyst table 126 which is given an asset class
adjustment 128 to produce an adjusted credit analyst table 130. As
described above, individual assets are selected from adjusted
credit analyst table 130 according to tranche grouping to produce a
partial sampling credit value 132 for use in bidding on tranche 70
(shown in FIG. 2).
[0038] Automatic valuation procedure 40 utilizes supervised
learning process 206, an unsupervised learning process 208 and an
upload from a statistical inferencing algorithm 134 to generate an
underwriting clusters table 136 which is stored in a digital
storage device. In supervised learning process 206, an experienced
underwriter who knows what questions to ask to establish value,
assists the computer in determining whether or not an asset is a
good investment and how to value the asset. In unsupervised
learning process 208, the computer segments and classifies assets
and objectively self-evaluates the assets based on feedback from
the data. An underwriter periodically reviews the unsupervised
learning process 208 to determine whether the computer is making
sensible underwriting conclusions. The computer uses statistical
algorithms 134 to make its inferences. For example, but not by way
of limitation, one embodiment uses the Design For Six Sigma
("DFSS") quality paradigm developed and used by General Electric
Company and applied in a Due Diligence ("DD") asset valuation
process using a multi-generational product development ("MGPD")
mode to value the asset data with increasing accuracy. Learning
processes 206 and 208 incorporate the accumulated knowledge as the
valuation progresses into cash flow recovery and probability of
recovery calculations on an ongoing, real time basis. Supervised
learning process 206 uses business rules to identify clusters of
assets having common aspects for valuation purposes. Unsupervised
learning process 208 uses feedback from prior data valuations
performed by procedure 40 to determine if progress is being made
with respect to increasing valuation confidence. Identification of
all available raw data and discovery of interrelationships of
clusters of these available raw data is possible due to the use of
high-speed computers, as is described below.
[0039] In one exemplary embodiment, a fuzzy clustering means
("FCM") process of unsupervised organization of raw data using a
HELTR scoring technique is employed to infer valuations of credit
scores onto assets in portfolios, as described below. Such
clustering techniques have been developed in response to more
sophisticated classification segments to describe assets and high
asset counts in portfolios that must be assessed in time periods
that do not allow manual processing.
[0040] One exemplary method first organizes valuation scores
(static and/or probabilistic recoveries) in a computerized system.
Adjustments are then made to the valuation scores for special
factors and business decisions. Then a reconciliation of multiple
valuation scores describing the same asset and an overall
adjustment to interview/override the inferred valuation is
performed.
[0041] Organizing valuation scores is performed by collating, in
electronic form, a cluster number, a cluster name, descriptive
attributes of the cluster(s), probabilistic recovery values (an
illustrative example is a HELTR score) and the underwriter's
confidence in each cluster's valuation based upon the strengths of
each cluster's descriptive attributes. The cluster number is a
unique identifier of a specific set of descriptive attributes that
are facts about an asset which a person skilled in evaluations uses
to assess value of an asset. Examples of descriptive attributes
include, but are not limited to, payment status, asset type,
borrower's credit worthiness expressed as a score, location and
seniority of a claim. The cluster name is, in one embodiment, an
alpha-numeric name that describes the cluster's descriptive
attributes or sources. One example of descriptive attributes is
found in FIG. 12, described below.
[0042] Descriptive attributes are the facts or dimensions or
vectors that were used to develop the asset's value. Computer logic
is used to check for replicated clusters, if any, and alert the
analysts or underwriters.
[0043] Because each asset can be described by many combinations of
descriptive attributes, various levels of value for the same asset
may occur. Probabilistic recovery values or credit score or any
numerical indication of the asset's worth are indicators of worth
designated at the discrete asset level. All of the information from
the various descriptive attributes is synthesized such that a
purchase or sale price can be ascertained as a fixed value or a
probabilistic one. An illustrative embodiment used herein is the
HELTR score. Each cluster has a unique set of descriptive
attributes and designated HELTR score.
[0044] Every cluster's unique attributes contribute to a valuation
of cluster value. Different combinations of attributes provide a
higher confidence or confidence interval of a particular cluster's
score. For example, if any asset was described as a green piece of
paper with height equal to 2.5" and width equal to 5" one might
ascribe a value of 0 to 1000 dollars and place very little
confidence in this assessment. If this same asset was described
with one more fact or attribute or vector as being a real $20 US
bill, one would place a very high confidence factor on this cluster
value of $20 US dollars.
[0045] A cluster's valuation and confidence is determined at a
point in time and recorded. Sometimes new information becomes
available and the analyst would like to alter the value(s). The
value is altered manually or automatically with a data field and
decision rules, in the automated fashion via computer code. The
prior values are manipulated to reflect new information. As an
illustrative example, assume the prior cluster confidence was
recorded at 0.1 and it is learned that a different asset with exact
descriptive attributes as in this cluster just sold for over the
predicted "most probable" value. Rules were in effect such that if
this event occurred, cluster confidence is multiplied by 10.
0.1.times.10=1 which is the revised cluster confidence.
[0046] The purpose of such a process is to reconcile multiple
scores for the same asset, controlling for the confidence
associated with each source of valuation of each dimension of
valuation. Using the HELTR as an illustrative example with sample
data points on a particular asset:
1 Cluster Cluster Valuative Number Name High Exp Low Time
Confidence High Exp Low Time 1 Lien .85 62 15 3 3 (.3/1.65)(.85)
(.3/1.65)(.62) (.3/1.65)(.15) (.3/1.65)(3) positions - recourse 2
Asset 45 .4 .31 3 7 (.7/1.65)(.45) (.7/1.65)(.4) (.7/1.65)(.31)
(.7/1.65)(3) classification - industry - age 3 Coordinates - 9 5 2
2 65 (.65/1.65)(.9) (.65/1.65)(.5) (.65/1.54)(.2) (.65/1.65)(2) use
- borrower n x 1.65 .6999 4792 2374 2.6059
[0047] The cluster consensus valuation is a high value of 0.6999,
most likely 0.4792, low 0.2374 with a timing of 2.6059. Different
logic can be applied to manipulate any of the weights.
[0048] The consensus scores are developed in the context of global
assumptions. Should a global assumption change occur, process steps
128, 138 are included in the methodology to weight the consensus
score. Illustrative examples are fraud discovery in certain
valuation factors, macroeconomic changes, fungible market value
established for an asset class, and loss of or increase of
inferenced asset valuation methodologies relative to other
methodologies being employed.
[0049] In another embodiment, a cross correlation tool is used to
quickly understand and describe the composition of a portfolio.
Typically, the tool is used to correlate a response of a user
selected variable versus other variables in an asset portfolio. The
tool quickly identifies unexpectedly high or low correlation
between two attribute variables and the response variable.
Attribute variables are of two types, continuous and categorical.
The cross correlations are computed by the correlation tool between
all variables of interest and their bin or level and presented, in
one embodiment, in a two dimensional matrix for easy identification
of trends amongst the assets in the portfolios.
[0050] First, the cross-correlation tool identifies attribute
variables in the portfolio of assets as one of continuous or
categorical. For each variable aggregation levels are computed by
bins for continuous variables and by value for categorical
variables.
[0051] A user looking to identify correlations with the tool will
select a response variable, Y.sub.r, for example, an expected
recovery or count. For all combinations of pairs of attribute
variables (.times.1 and .times.2) and their levels (a and b),
compute the average value of the response variable, Y.sub.r,
according to:
Y.sub.r=sum(Y(x1=a and x2=b))/count(x1=a and x2=b).
[0052] An expected value, Y.sub.expect, of the response variable is
calculated according to:
Y.sub.expect=(sum(Y(x1=a))*count(x1=a)+sum(Y(x2=b))*count(x2=b)))/(count(x-
1=a)*count(x2=b)).
[0053] A deviation, Y.sub.error, of the chosen response variable,
Y.sub.r, from the expected value, Y.sub.expect, using weighted
values of occurrence of x1=a and x2=b separately, is calculated
by:
Y.sub.error=Y.sub.r-Y.sub.expect.
[0054] In one embodiment, expected values and deviations are
displayed in multi-dimensional displays to make variations from
expected values easy to identify.
[0055] In another exemplary embodiment, a transfer function process
that converts raw data into the ultimate bid price is used, as
described below. Table 136 is electronically adjusted using
modified coefficients developed in procedures 14, 34 and 40 to give
a coefficient adjustment to a credit score 138 for the asset and to
generate an adjusted credit analyst table 140 of inferred
individual asset credit values. Individual asset values are taken
from table 140 as required by tranche grouping to generate an
inferred credit valuation 142. Finally an extrapolation is made on
the negligible remainder 30 of "untouched" assets to generate a
table of untouched assets 144. Values from table 144 are selected
to generate an untouched asset valuation.
[0056] Full cash valuation 98, partial cash valuation 104, full
sampling credit valuation 118, partial credit values 132, inferred
credit value 142 and any value assigned from untouched asset table
144 are cumulated and are mutually exclusive with the priority
being full cash valuation 98 to inferred credit value 142
consecutively. A sum of the valuations represents value of the
portfolio.
[0057] FIG. 4 is a flow diagram of a bid preparation stage 168
performed by system 28 (shown in FIG. 2). The cumulated valuations
98, 104, 118, 132, 142 and 144 are combined in a risk preference
loan level valuation step 146. A deterministic cash flow bridge 148
is produced using a cash flow timing table 150 to develop a
stochastic cash flow bridge 152. A stochastic or probabilistic cash
flow bridge 152 is created and used to determine a proposed tranche
bid price 154 to which is applied a tranche model 156 iteratively
until a certain threshold 158 is reached. Threshold 158 is, for
example, an internal rate of return ("IRR") greater than some
value, a certain time to profit ("TTP"), and a positive net present
value ("NPV").
[0058] In general, NPV is defined as: 1 NPV = c 0 + C i 1 + r (
Equation A )
[0059] where C.sub.0 is the investment at time 0, C.sub.1 is the
expected payoff at time 1, and r is the discount factor. The basic
idea is that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar
tomorrow.
[0060] In the case of insurance policies, NPV is defined as: 2 NPV
= P - E - ( C ) .times. A E w ( Equation B )
[0061] where P is the premium, E is the expected nominal cost, and
C is the claim cost. In essence, Equation B is how net income as
the difference of profit and weighted expected risk is generated.
Note that the summation is summing across all the policies in a
specific segment. Also note that all the premium, nominal cost, and
claim cost have been discounted before entering the equation. As a
result, a profitability score is generated.
[0062] If threshold conditions 160 are met, bid 154 is subjected to
a simulated bid opening analysis 161 to predict whether the bid can
be expected to be a winning bid. An outcome of a sealed bid auction
depends on sizes of the bids received from each bidder. Execution
of the auction involves opening all of the bids and selling the
items up for auction to the highest bidder. In traditional sealed
bid auctions, bidders are not allowed to change their bids once
their bid is submitted and bidders do not know the bids placed by
other bidders until the bids are opened, making the outcome of the
auction uncertain. By placing higher bids, a probability that the
auction will be won is higher, but value gain is lower if it was
possible to have won the auction at a lower price.
[0063] Simulating competitive bidding increases the probability of
capturing the highest upside of profitability by setting a range of
bid/sale prices that have a propensity to exhaust any competing
bidder's purses before ones own purse such that the most desirable
assets transact with the highest preservation of capital. Pricing
decisions are brought into focus by an analytically robust process
because pure anecdotal business judgment can be augmented by a data
driven approach not subject to a hidden agenda, personality or
unilateral knowledge.
[0064] Each potential bidder has a range of possible bids that
might be submitted to a sealed bid auction. The range of bids can
be expressed as a statistical distribution. By stochastically
sampling from a distribution of bid values, one possible auction
scenario may be simulated. Further by using an iterative sampling
technique, for example a Monte Carlo analysis, many scenarios are
simulated to produce a distribution of outcomes. The distribution
of outcomes include a probability of winning the auction item(s)
and the value gain. By varying the value of ones own bid, a
probability of winning the auction against ones own bid price can
be determined.
[0065] The following core elements are used to simulate a
competitive bidding yield, codification of market rules and
contracts into computerized business rules, codification of
potential competition/market forces, forecasted budgets and
priorities into a preference matrix, one's own bidding capacity,
preferences, risk/return tradeoffs agreed to codified into a
preference matrix, and a computerized stochastic optimization.
[0066] Analysis 160 simulates a competitive environment with other
companies having various financial capabilities bidding against the
bids calculated by system 28. In one embodiment, analysis 160, for
example and without limitation, includes a total bid limit such as
would be the case where the total value of the assets exceed the
financial capabilities of the entity using system 28. In one
embodiment, analysis 160 might assess the profitability, in such
case of limited resources to bid, of bidding on various
combinations of tranches. Analysis 160 also takes into account past
history in bidding against known competitors and information on the
various types of assets preferred by competing bidders. In analysis
160, the tranche bid is then evaluated and set by management 162
and a final tranche bid 164 made. All valuations prior to the
making of the bid 164 can be repeated as desired. Further, since
the process is self-adjusting and iterative, the tranche bid price
164 tends to climb upward with each iteration as more and more
value is found by the iterations performed by system 28.
[0067] The process described by flowchart 85 includes an evaluation
stage 166 (shown in FIG. 3) and a bid preparation stage 168 (shown
in FIG. 4). Evaluation stage 166 includes procedures 14, 34 and 40.
Evaluation stage 166 runs constantly until stopped, with the
automatic valuation procedure 40 and sampling procedures 34
attempting to find extra value in various assets or categories of
assets.
[0068] Referring once again to FIG. 2, and in accordance with rapid
asset valuation, data categories 170, 172 and 174 within the assets
of portfolio 12 are identified on each asset and stored in database
76. Iterative and adaptive valuation process 32 takes portions of
selected data 78 and applies criteria 80 to the portions of
selected data 78 in a statistical manner to increase the known
asset value rather than the asset value being a gross extrapolation
20. In accordance with method 28 the assets are divided into at
least first portion 16, second portion 36 and third portion or
remainder 42. Using procedure 14, the assets in portion 16 are
fully underwritten to determine valuation 98 and partial value
fully underwritten valuation 104 and to establish criteria 80 for
such valuation. Using procedure 34, process 28 samples a quantity
of assets from second portion 36 representative of groups in second
portion 36 to determine full sampling group valuation 118 and
partial sampling credit values 132 for second portion 36 and to
establish additional criteria 80 for such valuation. Using
procedure 40, partially supervised learning process 206 and
partially unsupervised learning process 208 are performed by an
automated analyzer such as computer 38 of FIG. 2. In order to
learn, the automated analyzer extracts established criteria 80 and
selected data 78 as to third portion or remainder 42 and divides
third portion 42 into portions 46, and then further divides each
portion 46 into categories 48 and 50 and category 50 into clusters
52, 54 and clusters 52, 54 into subclusters 56, 58, 60, 62 and 64
using criteria 80 imported from database 76 and each of processes
206 and 208. Individual asset valuations are established for the
assets in subclusters 56, 58, 60, 62 and 64 by statistical
inference.
[0069] The individual asset valuations are listed in cluster tables
136 (see FIG. 3) and after adjustment 138, listed in a credit
analyst table 140. The established criteria 80 are objective since
criteria 80 come from database 76 where they have been placed
during full underwriting procedure 14 and sample underwriting
procedure 34. In other words, information obtained in full value
table 96, partial value table 102, table 116, alpha credit analyst
table 126, adjusted credit analyst table 130, adjusted credit
analyst table 140 and untouched asset table 144 for all assets is
placed into database 76 in a digital storage device, such as the
hard disk storage 178 of computer 38, and correlations are made by
procedure 40 with criteria 80 from procedures 14 and 34. During
procedure 40, criteria 80 which are of statistical significance
with an acceptable degree of reliability, are entered. That is,
procedure 40 iteratively learns as it values and establishes
criteria 80. Supervised learning process 206 and unsupervised
learning process 208 increase the accuracy of statistically
inferred valuation 142 by correlating to established criteria 80 in
database 76 on assets in fully underwritten first portion 16 and
assets in sample underwritten second portion 36. Selected data 78
related to one or more assets in third portion 42 similar to
selected data 78 on assets in portions 16 and/or 36 are located in
database 76 and then by statistical inference, a value for each
asset in third portion 42 is determined from the located
information.
[0070] During the process described by flowchart 85, assets are
valued at an individual asset level, and the individual asset
values are tabulated or grouped in one or more combinations. To
have maximum flexibility for various bidding scenarios, any subset
of portfolio 12 is valued and priced separately in a particular
time frame. In known process 10, if a seller of assets regroups the
assets, for example from groupings by asset company to groupings by
geographical location of borrowers, revaluation of bids may be
inadequate because gross extrapolation 20 will need to be
performed. In using system 28, because individual asset values are
developed and listed in tables 96, 102, 116, 130, 140 and 144,
these values can be electronically regrouped into different
valuations 98, 104, 118, 132, 142 whose "food chain" selection
criteria is mutually exclusive and selectable by the analysts
conducting the evaluation and is further described below. If the
seller groups the assets, then grouping according to seller groups
or tranches is easily made and an appropriate valuation 146
developed for that tranche. The individual asset values are thus
easily regrouped for third portion 42 to objectively obtain an
inferred valuation 142 for that group or tranche.
[0071] Many methods may be employed to establish asset value.
Depending upon the objectives of the valuation, the relative merits
of different valuation methodologies establish the desirability of
the valuation techniques for a particular asset. One methodology is
similar to a "food chain" which preserves assumption development
methods yet selects the intervals with the highest confidence
intervals.
[0072] In one introductory illustrative example of a food chain,
one may prefer to value a financial asset more by what similar
assets trade in the open market for versus an individual's opinion.
In rank order, the market-to-market value is selected over an
individual's opinion.
[0073] In the same way assets in a portfolio with a forecasted cash
flow recovery may be evaluated by a number of valuation techniques.
The typical objective is to establish, with as high a probability
available, what the future cash flow will be. The valuation
methodologies are ranked in order of their capability to accurately
quantify cash flow, or cash equivalent, forecasts with the least
downside variances and/or maximum upside variances. The asset is
valued by all available methods that have merit, or may have
business logic rules to eliminate duplicate work when it is known
that more accurate methods will preclude the need to assess an
asset's valuation once the best method has been employed.
[0074] In order to provide the best forecast of asset value, assets
are evaluated by each method within a food chain until such time as
they are valued by the best available method for each particular
asset. Once this best value is found, the asset is said to have its
value, irrespective to other values lower (with more variance) in
the food chain and is sent to the completed state.
[0075] As an example, a portfolio of assets is evaluated using a
food chain. The first valuation method in the food chain is the one
which most closely matches the valuation objectives--namely to find
the value with the highest degree of accuracy (tightest confidence
interval). As soon as the asset is valued by a methodology for
which a value was established for that unique asset, it is sent to
the valuation table and removed from any further steps in the food
chain. A list of assets from the original portfolio that did not
match any valuation methods is kept in the untouched asset table.
The objective is to drive this untouched table to zero assets.
[0076] One example of a food chain is as follows, in order of
preference: (a) 100% cash in hand for the asset, (b) partial cash
in hand for the asset, (c) liquid market value for like asset, (d)
direct underwrite, and (e) inferred underwrite.
[0077] The food chain approach provides an ability to find the best
probability distribution shape, reduces probability distribution
variance (especially on the downside tails), provides capability to
establish probability distributions quickly while preserving all
available knowledge in the constituencies and provides the ability
to provide the best estimate of value at any point in the discovery
process.
[0078] As shown in FIG. 4, the general framework of bid preparation
stage 168 is to price bid 164 similar to option valuation paradigms
where the winning investor will have the right, but not the
obligation, to recover the investment. The values are desegregated
into three parts for each tranche, a time value of money component,
an inherent value component and a probable cash flow component. The
time value of money and the inherent value are deterministically
calculated and have little variation once established. The time
value of money is computed by taking a firm's cost of capital for a
low risk investment multiplied by the investment for the applicable
period which represents an opportunity for alternate investment
that is foregone in order to make the present investment. Inherent
value is a known liquid asset value, which is in excess of the
purchase price and is available immediately after taking control of
the assets. One embodiment is a well traded security purchased
below market value as part of a portfolio. Probable cash flow
variance is a function of the assumptions a due diligence team
makes and the process it selects to convert raw data into a cash
flow recovery stream. The systems described herein are configured
to reduce negative variances and find value.
[0079] FIG. 5 is a triangular probability distribution graph for a
typical minimum three-point asset evaluation 180. In accordance
with process 40 a minimum of three cases per financial instrument
are evaluated. A vertical axis 182 denotes increasing probability
and a horizontal axis 184 denotes increasing portion of recovery. A
liquidation or worst case percentage 186 of a face value line 188,
a best case percentage 190 of face value 188, and a most probable
case percentage and recovery value 192 of face value 188 are shown.
The probability of worse case percentage 186 is zero, the
probability of best case scenario 190 is zero and a probability 194
of the most probable percentage 192 of recovery is a value
represented by point 196. The size of an area 198 under a curve 200
defined by a line connecting points 186, 196 and 190 is
representative of value in the asset. The notational asset value
holds to an area 202 of a rectangle bounded by a 100% probability
line 204 of a 100% recovery of face value 188 is a measure of the
portion of face value 188 that can be attributed to the asset
represented by curve 200. Points 186, 196 and 190 and lines 188 and
204, and thus areas 198 and 202, will vary depending on selected
data 78 chosen for the asset in question and criteria 80 applied to
the asset and ascribed probabilities of asset value recovery.
Horizontal axis 184 can be expressed in currency units (e.g.
dollars) rather than percentage of face value. When currency units
are used, areas 198 under curves 200 for different assets will be
in currency units and thus areas 198 relate to each other in
magnitude and hence in significance to overall bids 70, 72 and 74.
The more that is known about the asset, the more curve 200 can be
refined. Statistics are applied to curve 200 as criteria 80 are
established to help establish the location of points 186, 196 and
190 and hence area 198 and thus the expected value of the asset.
The timing of cash flows, which affects value, can be based upon
histogram results of the timing attributes.
[0080] For example, the cash flow recovery timing can be broken
down into three bins of 0-6 months, 7-12 months, 13-18 months, and
so on. The automated analyzer 38 using algorithm 134 can select the
bin width based upon a sensitivity study trade off of timing to
valuation against the gauge recovery and rate determined possible
by an underwriter. In an exemplary embodiment, a minimum of 4 bins
should be utilized when the discount factor is more than 25%. For a
discount factor between 10 and 25, a minimum of 6 bins should be
used to cover the likely recovery periods.
[0081] In accordance with procedure 40 other sources of data are
chosen that an underwriter would be able to utilize to assess value
in a financial instrument. Criteria 80, established by underwriting
teams 94, 100 114, 122 and 140 in procedures 14 and 34, are useful
in that regard. In accordance with the process described by
flowchart 85, raw data is turned into a recovery and a rule set is
selected to apply a valuation to the raw data and this rule set is
coded into the valuation database in the form of criteria 80. Each
time a cluster is touched by multiple hits during a valuation in
procedures 14, 34 or 40, a consensus forecast is developed and
applied to the cluster. In accordance with system 28, the
probability distributions of cash flows and timing at the tranche
level is determined by developing valuation transfer function 146
at the asset level which will take raw data, rationalize the
assumptions that data will generate and aggregate the valuations of
the individual assets in the tranche.
[0082] Since all recoveries are not homogeneous, a method to
establish the variability of cash flow recoveries is provided.
Individual assets are clustered by group exposure. As much face
value as possible is traditionally underwritten in the time
permitted, recognizing that a sizable sample remains for
clustering. Clustering reserves are estimated using a sample size
equal to one hundred forty five plus 2.65% of the face count and a
regression analysis of variance. This produces sample sizes of
thirty for a face count of 100 assets, 150 for a face count of
1,000 assets, 400 for a face count of 5,000 assets, 500 for a face
count of 10,000 assets, and 600 for a face count of 20,000
assets.
[0083] During statistical inference procedure 40, assets remaining
in third portion 42 of portfolio 12 are clustered by descriptive
underwriting attributes or criteria 80 and random samples are taken
from each cluster and the sample underwritten. In one embodiment,
sampling from a cluster in procedure 40 is stopped when asset level
mean variance falls below 10%. In another embodiment, sampling is
stopped when tranche level mean variance falls below 15%. Portfolio
mean variance is not used as a stop point if the potential unit of
sale is less than the entire portfolio. In accordance with
procedure 40, recovery valuation of the cluster sampling is
inferred onto the corresponding cluster population. In using system
28, the goal is to touch each inferred asset valuation via three or
more unique clusters. During procedure 40 a cluster's underwriting
confidence and descriptive attribute's relevance is weighed.
[0084] By way of example, without limitation, 0=no confidence that
this cluster's descriptive attributes will provide a meaningful
valuation; 1=complete confidence that this cluster's descriptive
attributes will provide as accurate of a valuation as individually
underwriting each instrument, and numbers between 1 and 0 indicate
partial confidence in the valuation. Reconciliation of these values
occurs within adjusted credit analyst table 130. In procedure 40
cash flow at asset level is then adjusted by macroeconomic
coefficients within adjusted credit analyst table 140.
Macroeconomic coefficients are, in one embodiment, associated with
major asset classes such as for example, without limitation,
real-estate residential loan or commercial equipment loan. The
coefficients can be globally applicable, such as by way of example
without limitation, legal climate, gross domestic product ("GDP")
forecast, guarantor climate, collections efficiency, borrower group
codes, and the like.
[0085] One method for sampling a portfolio includes searching among
key asset, borrower, and collateral characteristics for attributes
which heavily influence/generate risk. Table A below provides one
example list of portfolio attributes in an asset valuation
scenario.
2TABLE A Portfolio attributes Borrower Size (by Borrower Group UPB)
Secured Syndicated (yes / no) Guaranteed Loan Type (Term,
Revolving, etc.) % UPB from Liens in First Position Collection
Score (0 = Bad, 1 = Good) 12-month collections % of UPB % of Last
Payment for Principal # Borrower Loans Loan`s portion of borrower
UPB Single Family Residence Residential Retail Industrial Hospital
Hospitality Multifamily Land Developed / Undeveloped / Other Office
Stock / Margin Loans
[0086] Segmentation of the asset attributes is accomplished by
encoding of attributes into "dummy variables". For example, a
common asset attribute is "Has borrower made a payment in the last
12 months?", which would be encoded in a variable as a "1" if the
answer is yes, and "0" otherwise. Similar "dummy variables" are
used for other asset attributes.
[0087] The segmentation procedure is completed by using any
statistical procedure which process the encoded asset attributes in
such a way so as to segment the portfolio into groups of similar
assets. One such algorithm is K-means clustering. In an example,
where three asset attributes, Unpaid Principal Balance (UPB),
Probability of Payment, a scale from 0 to 1; and Secured Score, a
probability of being secured by real estate collateral are used,
the assets might be classified into five groups with similar
attributes.
[0088] Once the groupings of assets is made, the number of samples
to be taken and submitted for further underwriting review is
calculated by establishing the confidence level with which
statements can be made about the total recoveries in each segment
(k), establishing the precision with which one wishes to estimate
the total recoveries in each segment (h) and providing an a priori
estimate of the level and range of recoveries as a percentage of
total Unpaid Principal Balance (UPB) (R), according to: 3 Var ( Y ^
R ) = n [ 1 - n N ] .times. [ 1 N x i ] 2 [ 1 n x i ] 2 .times. 1 N
( y i - Rx i ) 2 N - 1
[0089] n=sample size
[0090] N=cluster size
[0091] x.sub.i=UPB for sample i
[0092] y.sub.i=recovery for sample i 4 R = 1 N y i 1 N x i =
cluster expected recovery %
[0093] cluster expected recovery % 5 h 2 = k 2 .times. n [ 1 - n N
] .times. [ 1 N x i ] 2 [ 1 n x i ] 2 .times. 1 N ( y i - Rx i ) 2
N - 1 ( Equation C )
[0094] h=error tolerance for estimating 6 Y = 1 N y i
[0095] with .sub.R 7 Y ^ R = R ^ .times. i = 1 N x i = i = 1 n y i
i = 1 n x i .times. i = 1 N x i = i = 1 n i x i i = 1 n x i .times.
i = 1 N x i ( Equation D )
[0096] k=constant in Tchebyshev's Formula:
.vertline..sub.R-.mu..sub..sub.- .sub.R.vertline..ltoreq.k{square
root}{square root over (Var()}.sub.R) with probability.gtoreq. 8 1
- 1 k 2
[0097] By solving Equation C for n, required sample size for the
given cluster is obtained. Solving Equation C further allows the
user to state, with probability 9 1 - 1 k 2
[0098] the calculated sample size, n, and associated underwritten
values will estimate the total cluster recoveries to within an
error of h, assuming that estimates of total segment recoveries are
determined using Equation D.
[0099] In practice, it is difficult to estimate variability in
total recoveries without available data. A spreadsheet tool
implements the above by generating data in a Monte Carlo
simulation, and guiding the user through an analysis of the results
until a favorable sample size is derived.
[0100] Table B provides an example output from a study of a group
of 20 loans, with estimated (expected) recoveries between 20% and
30% of UPB, and a range of UPB between IMM and 2MM. Eight samples
are needed to estimate the total recoveries for the 20 loans to
within 10% of actual, with 75% confidence.
3TABLE B Sample Size Spreadsheet Wizard 1 1 779,131 779,131
2,936,279 26 5% -- 2 716,951 1,496,082 5,447,631 27 5% 27,269 3
359,327 1,855,409 6,702,090 27 7% 12,042 4 481,798 2,337,206
8,538,875 27 4% (20,956) 5 606,774 2,943,980 10,706,452 27 5%
10,750 6 418,899 3,362,880 12,207,495 27 5% 5,397 7 622,516
3,985,396 14,609,180 27 3% (32,665) 8 594,799 4,580,195 16,911,278
27 1% (28,694) 9 713,922 5,294,117 19,440,132 27 2% 25,241 10
494,230 5,788,346 21,153,615 27 4% 25,363 11 735,334 6,523,680
24,031,814 27 1% (45,983) 12 683,155 7,206,835 26,387,193 27 3%
39,857 13 748,413 7,955,248 29,256,251 27 2% (31,730) 14 419,885
8,375,133 30,726,773 27 3% 19,068 15 757,050 9,132,183 33,682,971
27 1% (44,439) 16 553,674 9,685,857 35,690,262 27 1% 8,922 17
761,579 10,447,435 38,234,459 27 3% 66,386 18 677,811 11,125,246
40,756,944 27 3% (10,741) 19 563,811 11,689,057 42,688,952 27 4%
34,790 20 434,763 12,123,821 44,160,329 27 5% 30,810 2 20 6 27.5% 3
2,000,000 5.0% 44,160,329 4 1,000,000 25.0% 12,123,821 5 75 0% 2.00
1,212,382 10.0%
[0101] The appropriate variance adjusted forecast is made for each
asset and the valuation tables are constructed to include every
asset in the portfolio. The recovery is valued with continuous
probabilities at the unit of sale, which in one embodiment is a
tranche. In the use of system 28, internal rate of return ("IRR")
and variance would then be assessed. Preferred tranches have lower
variances for a given IRR. The probability of each tranche's net
present value ("NPV") to be above 0 is assessed using the project's
discount rate. A discount rate is determined from the opportunity
cost of capital, plus FX swap cost, plus risks in general
uncertainties inherent in the variances of forecasted cash flow
recovery. If it appears that there is more than a five-percent
certainty that the project will have a negative NPV, no bid is
made. Deal evaluation is by tranche with decision criteria being
IRR, risk variance of the IRR in a tranche, estimated willingness
and ability of the tranche to pay, time to profit ("TPP") and the
risk variance in the payback by tranche, and NPV of the expected
cash flow by tranche discounted to risk free rate.
[0102] In competitive bid circumstances when the content of asset
portfolios is not negotiable, the investor or seller has a strong
financial incentive to select only the portions of total assets
available for transaction that will give their aggregated financial
structure the best risk/return. Meeting minimum risk/return
expected values with assets that will have a higher probability of
maximum upside probabilities is even more attractive to
investors.
[0103] The aggregated portfolio is divided into separately
marketable sub portfolios or tranches. Each tranch has a forecasted
cash flow probability distribution and time duration from prior
analytics. These tranches are then given a trial price. The new
assets are combined with the existing asset performance of the
selling or buying party and subjected to Monte Carlo case
generation (with associated cross correlations accounted for).
[0104] The tranch selection process includes a random selection of
trances not to buy. Once the portfolio effects take on a pattern,
the best selection of tranches to purchase, at what price, subject
to constraints is found by stochastic optimization.
[0105] Using NPV can be misleading due to the effects associated
with double discounting which will occur when pessimistic case
scenarios are discounted to obtain PV. Using time to profit is used
to overcome this limitation and the marginal capital cost or risk
free rate is used in the discounting as determined by analysts
conducting the evaluation.
[0106] Supervised learning process 206 of inferred valuation
procedure 40 and steps 120, 122 and 126 of partial sampling
procedure 108 have substantial similarity in that the underwriter
is actively involved in the process, but the process is automated.
FIG. 6 is a flow diagram illustrating a process 210 for automated
underwriting of segmentable financial instrument assets. First
clusters of financial instruments are defined 212 by common
attributes. An expert opinion 214 of value is given for selected
samples from the defined clusters based upon the attributes. This
opinion is used in a sample underwriting process 216 and values are
checked for combinations of attributes and reconciled 218. Process
210 then selects and sets 220 the individual attributes to be used
and then classifies 222 individual assets into clusters. Cluster
valuation is applied 224 to each cluster asset. Using the cluster
valuation, the values are desegregated by a rule 226 to create a
credit analyst table 228.
[0107] FIG. 7 is a flow diagram of one exemplary embodiment of
unsupervised learning 208 that includes several modules. A data
acquisition module 230 collects relevant data 78 wherever
available. A variable selection module 232 identifies the asset
relevant variables deemed critical by credit review or with the
most discriminate power in separating various asset groups. A
hierarchical segmentation module 234 segments the entire portfolio
of assets into bins based on critical variables selected by
analysts. A FCM module 236 further classifies each bin into
clusters based on natural structure of the asset data. An
underwriting review module 238 assigns projected cash flow and risk
scores 138 (shown in FIG. 3) to each cluster. This score is then
supplied to the individual asset values in credit analyst table 136
for the assets from the clusters being adjusted in procedure 40 to
produce adjusted credit analyst table 140. The process is iterative
and continuous and can be performed by computer so that it
continues while standard underwriting is being performed
elsewhere.
[0108] FIG. 8 illustrates an alternate exemplary inferred valuation
process 240 used in place of the process described in FIGS. 3 and
4. In alternate process 240, a seven-step process is used to
rapidly value a real estate loan portfolio using a combination of
full underwriting, partial underwriting and inferred valuation.
First, assets are sampled 242 according to risk. Second, assets are
underwritten 244, and valuations recorded. Third, market value
clusters are formed 246, such as by FCM, as described below.
Fourth, regression models are built 248, for the underwritten
assets. A best model is selected 250, for the underwritten assets
from among those built 248 earlier. Sixth, the counts for the
selected models are calculated 252. Seventh, models are applied
254, as selected 250 to non-underwritten or inferentially valued
portion 42 of portfolio 12 in a manner weighted by the counts to
predict individual values for each of the non-underwritten assets.
The individual asset values produced according to process 240 are
then placed in adjusted credit analyst table 140 (see FIG. 3).
[0109] In sampling assets 242, underwriters use stratified random
sampling to select assets for detailed review. Strata are
constructed from collateral attributes. Examples of collateral
attributes for real estate portfolios include, collateral usage
(commercial or residential), previous appraisal amount, market
value cluster (predicted from previous appraisal amount, land area,
building area, current appraisal amount, court auction realized
price, property type and property location. Typically, assets are
sampled in an adverse manner, i.e., purposely selected from a list
ordered by decreasing Unpaid Principal Balance ("UPB") or Previous
Appraisal Amount ("PAA").
[0110] Underwriting 244 is a largely manual process in which expert
underwriters ascribe a notion of worth to collateral assets. The
underwritten valuations are stored in a master database table, such
as database 76 (shown in FIG. 2). Valuations are typically
summarized in terms of monetary units (e.g., 100,000 KRW), at then
current market prices.
[0111] FIG. 9 is a high level overview 290 of the automated portion
of the process employed by system 28. Automated procedures are used
by underwriters to assist in full underwriting based on procedure
34 (see also FIG. 3). Knowledge captured in procedure 34 is applied
in inferred valuation procedure 40 to reduce cost and uncertainty
in due diligence valuations of financial instruments and to reduce
cost and variability between due diligence valuations. The
valuations are subjected to a cash flow model which includes asset
level valuation 146, deterministic cash flow bridge 148, stochastic
cash flow bridge 152 and cash flow table 150. The resultant bid
valuation 154 is subjected to gaming strategies 160 and management
adjustments 162 to produce the final bid 164.
[0112] FIG. 10 is a flow diagram of an exemplary embodiment of
forming clusters 246. In forming clusters 246, underwriters, with
the aid of algorithms, such as for example algorithms 134 (shown in
FIG. 3) perform an analysis using a Classification And Regression
Tree ("CART") based model, which results in a grouping of UW assets
by Collateral Usage and Market Value ("CCUMVT") groups, using
Previous Appraisal Amount ("PAA") as the driving variable.
[0113] Two approaches to assess the performance of a CART based
model are outlined below. One approach utilizes a ratio of the sum
of squared error (SSE) of a CART based approach to that of a simple
model, called an error ratio. A simple model is a model which
assigns an average asset price to all assets. The second approach
computes a coefficient of determination, denoted as R2, and defined
as:
R.sup.2=1-(SSE/SST), where SST is a sum of squares total.
[0114] R.sup.2 is the contribution of a single asset within each
segment relative to the entire population, a higher R.sup.2 value
for an asset within a particular segment, the higher is the
contribution. The different portfolio segments are ranked based on
the two approaches giving an indication of how good the predictive
capabilities of the model are within each portfolio segment, giving
a comfort level to the bidder in terms of pricing, for example,
each tranche.
4TABLE C Rank Error Ratios and R.sup.2 value per asset Rank Error
R-Squared Ratio for pe Loan for Tranche CO Data B C Grand Total C
loans C loans CO 01 Sum of a Curr UPB THB 645,959,109 82,692,009
728,651,119 Count of Loan No 66 10 76 Sum of SST
599,969,990,091,044 72,331,126,127,450 672,301,116,218,504 Sum of
SSE (CART) 252,088,256,587,362 26,877,527,094,865
278,965,783,682,227 Sum of SSE (Simple) 440,700,263,795,025
36,637,006,656,009 477,337,270,451,034 0.733617 0.18% CO 02 Sum of
a Curr UPB THB 58,779,400 379,765,147 438,544,547 Count of Loan No
9 118 127 Sum of SST 32,332,549,696,133 1,039,401,135,208,180
1,071,733,684,904,320 Sum of SSE (CART) 6,139,933,273,655
83,849,226,818,428 89,989,160,092,084 Sum of SSE (Simple)
7,037,799,486,368 136,366,441,963,041 143,404,241,449,409 0.614882
0.06% CO 03 Sum of a Curr UPB THB 798,969,257 276,915,573
1,075,884,830 Count of Loan No 98 99 197 Sum of SST
2,869,807,879,172,670 1,017,087,163,438,760 3,886,895,042,611,430
Sum of SSE (CART) 729,304,505,050,836 65,902,258,632,574
795,206,763,683,411 CO 04 Sum of SSE (Simple) 929,822,648,064,552
41,730,444,375,417 971,553,092,439,969 1.579237 0.46% Sum of a Curr
UPB THB 916,281,888 184,828,399 1,101,110,287 Count of Loan No 116
28 144 Sum of SST 927,232,177,539,735 223,991,862,418,471
1,151,224,039,958,210 Sum of SSE (CART) 329,869,566,636,764
92,347,778,018,417 422,217,344,655,182 CO 05 Sum of SSE (Simple)
688,543,329,448,792 62,722,788,782,158 751,266,118,230,950 1.472316
0.11% Sum of a Curr UPB THB 221,769,281 41,505,412 263,274,692
Count of Loan No 36 19 55 Sum of SST 270,033,444,922,605
164,601,058,694,453 434,634,503,617,058 Sum of SSE (CART)
28,547,982,198,098 10,191,006,095,769 38,738,988,293,867 Sum of SSE
(Simple) 28,897,015,065,918 8,519,509,247,449 37,416,524,313,367
1.196196 0.14% Total Sum of a Curr 2,641,758,934 965,706,540
3,607,465,475 UPB THB Total Count of 325 274 599 Loan No Total Sum
of SST 4,699,376,041,422,190 2,517,412,345,887,330
7,216,788,387,309,520 Total Sum of SSE 1,345,950,243,746,720
279,167,796,660,054 1,625,118,040,406,770 (CART) Total Sum of SSE
2,095,001,055,860,660 285,976,191,024,073 2,380,977,246,884,730
0.976192 0.22% (Simple) R-Squared (CART) 71.4% 88.9% 77.5%
R-Squared (Simple) 55.4% 88.6% 67.0%
[0115] A first step is to define relevant portfolio segmentations.
The segmentations could be pre-defined tranches, for example, based
on industry, Unpaid Balance (UPB) amounts, region or customer risk.
Table C above is an example of defined segments based on tranches
and asset rankings (B or C).
[0116] Table C provides an example output from a study of a
portfolio with five tranches and two different asset types (B and
C). The table shows how the error ratio is ranked for the different
segments. Also, the R2 values for each asset are also computed for
assets of type C within each segment.
[0117] A second step is to compute SSE values for each portfolio
segment of interest for the CART model and for the simple model
(extrapolation of an average price). An error ratio is computed
from the SSE based on the CART model divided by an SSE based on the
simple model. If the error ratio is less than one, then the CART
based model is a better predictor than the simple model. As an
added benefit, a superior model can be assembled as a "hybrid"
combination of the CART and simple models, by choosing the model
which performs best in each segment, according to the error ratio
metric.
[0118] A third step is to compute R.sup.2 values for each asset
within each portfolio segment. R.sup.2 per asset is computed as
(SST per segment-SSE per segment)/(overall SST for all
assets.times.number of assets within each segment).
[0119] Lastly all the segments are ranked based on the error ratio
computed in the second step and the R.sup.2 values computed in the
third step. The model is accurate in predicting price values for
segments that rank high on both of the two metrics, the error ratio
and R.sup.2 and superior models are assembled using these
metrics.
[0120] Table D shows the relative ranking of the five tranches for
the assets of type C (from Table C) on the basis of the two
performance metrics.
5TABLE D Portfolio Segment Ranking Tranche CO C R-Squared Rank
Error Ratio Rank R-squared CO 01 0.73 0.18% 2 2 CO 02 0.61 0.06% 1
5 CO 03 1.58 0.46% 5 1 CO 04 1.47 0.11% 4 4 CO 05 1.20 0.14% 3
3
[0121] FIG. 10 is a flow diagram illustrating an exemplary
embodiment of forming clusters 246 using FCM to choose clusters for
modeling. Computer 38 (shown in FIG. 2) forms clusters 246 by
taking selected data 78 and performing FCM analysis to produce the
clusters.
[0122] FIG. 11 illustrates building models 248, selecting best
models 250 and calculating counts 252 in which six models are built
using database 76. Computer 38 (shown in FIG. 3) performs this
process. Model building 248 is used to assist the underwriter in
prioritizing assets for full underwriting 14 and sample-based
underwriting 34, as well as for inferential valuation.
[0123] The lower portion of FIG. 11 is a table illustrating an
exemplary embodiment of selecting best models 250 from six models
built in accordance with building models 248d. The models differ
according to which variables are used as X's. All models use CUMV
Cluster (these are present for all assets). The models from
building models 248 are used to predict Court Auction Value ("CAV")
256 in addition to Market Value ("MAV") 258. Other embodiments (not
shown) use other models to predict other values
[0124] In selecting best models 250, the best models of K
regression models under consideration (here, K=6), are selected.
The best model is chosen for each UW asset, according to the
following metric: 10 min k { abs ( y - y ^ k ) , 1 E 99 } ,
[0125] where y is the UW value to be predicted, and .sub.k is a
prediction from the k.sup.th regression model, for k=1, 2, . . . ,
K.
[0126] In calculating counts 252, the number of times each of the K
models is selected within each CUMV cluster is counted. FIG. 11
contains these counts for CAV and MAV modeling scenarios. Other
modeling scenarios are used in other embodiments.
[0127] When applying models 254, the weighted average prediction
from all models that yielded a prediction for each non-UW asset is
used. The weights are constructed from the frequencies of the
counts calculated 252, and the predictions come from the modeling
process. In one embodiment, a commercial statistical analysis
software (SAS) system is used to produce the models. An artifact of
using the SAS system is that each non-UW asset will get a predicted
UW value from each model for which the non-UW asset has each input
variable, i.e., "X variable" present. Other modeling packages share
this trait.) Equation E below details the procedure. 11 y l = i , j
, k I lk f ijk y ^ lk i , j , k I lk f ijk ( Equation E )
[0128] In Equation C, I.sub.lk=1 if model k produced a prediction
for asset l, and is zero otherwise; f.sub.ijk=count of times model
k was selected for UW assets among the i.sup.th CUMV type (i=1,2),
and the j.sup.th CUMV cluster (j=1,2,3); and .sub.lk=prediction for
y.sub.l from model k. Note there is only a contribution from each
modeling approach for which an asset has a prediction, with each
being weighted by the number of times the modeling approach was
selected for all UW assets of the same CUMV cluster.
[0129] Process 240 is also used to estimate a Lower Confidence
Limit ("LCL") and Upper Confidence Limit ("UCL") for the mean
prediction, with a substitution of the corresponding statistic for
.sub.lk in Equation E.
[0130] Referring back again to FIG. 3, supervised learning process
206 and unsupervised learning process 208 use clustering.
"Clustering" is a tool that attempts to assess the relationships
among patterns of the data set by organizing the patterns into
groups or clusters such that patterns within a cluster are more
similar to each other than are patterns belonging to different
clusters. That is, the purpose of clustering is to distill natural
groupings of data from a large data set, producing a concise
representation of a system's behavior. Unsupervised learning step
208, employs a fuzzy clustering method ("FCM") and knowledge
engineering to group assets automatically for valuation. FCM is a
known method that has been widely used and applied in statistical
modeling. The method aims at minimizing intra-cluster distance and
maximizing inter-cluster distance. Typically the Euclidean distance
is used.
[0131] FCM 248 (see FIG. 10) at the same time minimizes the
intra-cluster distance and maximizes the inter-cluster distance.
Typically the Euclidean distance is used. FCM is an iterative
optimization algorithm that minimizes the cost function 12 J = k =
1 n i = 1 c ik m ; X k - V i r; 2 ( Equation F )
[0132] where n is the number of data points; c is the number of
clusters, X.sub.k is the k.sup.th data point; V.sub.i is the
i.sup.th cluster centroid; u.sub.ik is the degree of membership of
the k.sup.th data in the i.sup.th cluster; m is a constant greater
than 1 (typically m=2). Note that u.sub.ik is a real number and
bounded in [0,1]. .mu..sub.ik=1 means that i.sup.th data is
definitely in k.sup.th cluster, while .mu..sub.ik=0 means that
i.sup.th data is definitely not in k.sup.th cluster. If
.mu..sub.ik=0.5, then it means that i.sup.th data is partially in
k.sup.th cluster to the degree 0.5. Intuitively, the cost function
would be minimized if each data point belongs exactly to a specific
cluster and there is no partial degree of membership to any other
clusters. That is, there is no ambiguity in assigning each data
point to the cluster to which it belongs.
[0133] The degree of membership .mu..sub.ik is defined by 13 ik = 1
j = 1 c ( ; X k - V i r; 2 ; X k - V j r; 2 ) 1 m - 1 ( Equation G
)
[0134] Intuitively, .mu..sub.ik, the degree of membership of the
data point X.sub.k in the cluster centroid V.sub.i, increases as
X.sub.k is getting closer to V.sub.i. At the same time, .mu..sub.ik
would get smaller as X.sub.k is getting farther away V.sub.j (other
clusters).
[0135] The i.sup.th cluster centroid V.sub.i is defined by 14 V i =
k = 1 n ( ik ) m X k k = 1 n ( ik ) m ( Equation H )
[0136] Intuitively, V.sub.i, the i.sup.th cluster centroid, is the
weighted sum of the coordinates of X.sub.k, where k is the number
of data points.
[0137] Starting with a desired number of clusters c and an initial
estimate for each cluster center V.sub.i, i=1, 2, . . . , c, FCM
will converge to a solution for V.sub.i that represents either a
local minimum or a saddle point of the cost function. The quality
of the FCM solution, like that of most nonlinear optimization
problems, depends strongly on the choice of initial values--the
number c and the initial cluster centroids V.sub.i).
[0138] In one exemplary embodiment, the entire portfolio 12 is
segmented by unsupervised fuzzy clustering and each cluster is
reviewed by under-writing experts, thereby assisting the
underwriters in choosing the financial instruments for full
underwriting 14 and sample underwriting 34. Alternatively, this FCM
can be applied just to portion 42. As a result, each cluster gets
assigned a HELTR composite score for purposes of adjustment 138
(see FIG. 3). In essence the HELTR composite score captures both
expected and range of cash flow, its timing and the risk associated
with each cluster.
[0139] Referring now to FIG. 2, the ratio of full underwrite
portion 16 to the total portfolio 12 is in one exemplary embodiment
25% of the assets and 60% of the face value of all assets. Full
underwriting of these assets is warranted due to their size and
value. However, this underwriting is fairly uniform for all
underwriters, so the underwriting is not likely to produce
significant bidding variances. The remaining 40%, however,
comprising portions 36 and 42, which in the exemplary embodiment
constitute 75% of the assets but only 40% of the face value are
highly speculative until underwritten. To the extent value can be
found in portions 36 and 42f, for example without limitation, an
additional five percent over gross extrapolation, the difference
meaning the difference between winning and losing the entire
portfolio bid or the entire tranche bid meaning hundreds of
millions of dollars difference in profit.
[0140] In the case of insurance policies, in accordance with
procedure 40, statistics are used in an attempt to answer three
basic questions: (a) How should we collect our data?, (b) How
should we summarize the data we collected?, and (c) How accurate
are our data summaries?. Algorithm 134 answers question (c) and is
a computer-based method without complicated theoretical proofs.
Algorithm 134 for insurance policy inferential valuations is
suitable for answering statistical inferences that are too
complicated for traditional statistical analysis. Algorithm 134 for
insurance policy valuation simulates the distribution of
statistical estimates by repeatedly sampling with replacement. The
algorithm generally is composed of three main steps: (I) Sampling
with replacement, (II) Evaluating statistics of interest, and (III)
Estimating standard deviation.
[0141] In accordance with insurance algorithm 134, estimates of NPV
standard error are performed as follows. For each of the risk
models and for each segment in the models, assuming there are N
policies in the segment, n samples are selected using sampling with
replacement (for example, n=100). Each sample contains N policies,
too, in this example. For each sample, and for all historical
policies: 15 A E w = ( Act ) ( Wtdexp ) 0.72858 ( Equation I )
[0142] Next, net present value is generated by 16 NPV = P - E - ( C
) .times. A E w ( Equation J )
[0143] for recent policies. Compute the sample standard deviation
for the n NPV values. In Equation I, Act is the actual claim and
Wtdexp is the weighted expected claim for each individual
policy.
[0144] FIG. 12 is a table of exemplary criteria 80 and exemplary
rule sets for credit scoring 138. Other criteria could be selected
depending on the type of financial instrument and particular
bidding conditions or any other desires or preferences of the
bidder.
[0145] FIG. 13 is a more detailed tree chart diagram 260 similar to
tree chart 66 (see lower portion of FIG. 2). In FIG. 13, the
segregation is by (a) whether secured, (b) whether revolving, (c)
whether the last payment was zero. The result is six clusters 262,
264, 266, 268 270, 272, casually known as a "shaker tree".
[0146] FIG. 14 illustrates an exemplary system 300 in accordance
with one embodiment of the present invention. System 300 includes
at least one computer configured as a server 302 and a plurality of
other computers 304 coupled to server 302 to form a network. In one
embodiment, computers 304 are client systems including a web
browser, and server 302 is accessible to computers 304 via the
Internet. In addition, server 302 is a computer. Computers 304 are
interconnected to the Internet through many interfaces including a
network, such as a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network
(WAN), dial-in-connections, cable modems and special high-speed
ISDN lines. Computers 304 could be any device capable of
interconnecting to the Internet including a web-based phone or
other web-based connectable equipment, including wireless web and
satellite. Server 302 includes a database server 306 connected to a
centralized database 76 (also shown in FIG. 2) which contains data
describing sets of asset portfolios. In one embodiment, centralized
database 76 is stored on database server 306 and is accessed by
users at one of computers 304 by logging onto server sub-system 302
through one of computers 304. In an alternative embodiment
centralized database 76 is stored remotely from server 302. Server
302 is further configured to receive and store information for the
asset valuation methods described above.
[0147] While system 300 is described as a networked system, it is
contemplated that the methods and algorithms described herein for
examination and manipulation of asset portfolios are capable of
being implemented in a stand-alone computer system that is not
networked to other computers.
[0148] FIG. 15 is a diagram 320 illustrating due diligence tools
and processes implemented within system 300. Diagram 320 includes
repositories of due diligence information including a dictionary
322, a tool library 324, a deal pitch repository 326, links 328 and
dashboards 330 where overviews regarding due diligence information
can be accessed. A workspace 332 allows storage of due diligence
information being compiled by a due diligence team. A results area
334 includes previously stored results of prior exercises including
bid results. A deal valuation area 336 includes stored valuations
of former and current deals for comparison.
[0149] The system informally referred to as a Virtual War Room
diagrammed in diagram 320 includes a high level map and associated
descriptions of the due diligence roles and responsibilities such
that collaborators can see who has functional responsibilities, how
the team members as individuals fit into the due diligence exercise
and who to contact for assorted information. Also included is a
project timeline with milestones and tasks arranged as both Gantt
charts, PERT charts and text such that key deliverable timing is
developed with inputs from the team, and then is made available to
a global due diligence team. The project timeline serves as a
control mechanism to keep the due diligence on schedule and to
account for "what if" changes to schedule.
[0150] A project feedback mechanism within dashboard 330 includes
an easily readable set of graphical indicators which tracks key due
diligence deliverables, for example, types and quantities of
underwriting completed, total project budget, and status of
deliverables. A project calendar with notable local and global
dates, holidays, vacations, and deliverables identified is within
the feedback mechanism as is contact information for team members
and collaborator's including telephone, email and address
information. A project "to do" list and status such that the global
team captures vital tasks to be completed and keeps visibility on
the status thereof is further contemplated.
[0151] System 300 (shown in FIG. 14) includes a shared storage
place for the various functions to keep the project files and
information in such a fashion that the collaborators can easily
have access to the information with ease of retrieval. A
centralized information flow map that identifies the sources and
uses of information utilized to make the decisions needed on the
due diligence team objectives. An example is the conversion of raw
data, through associated calculations and data manipulations in
order to set the bid price.
[0152] A centralized repository of system 300 stores the financial
models and data manipulation and business process tools that are
available for use on the due diligence. The centralized repository
for the historical "best practices" that the business collates and
codifies from past due diligence exercises, or elsewhere such that
the team can easily deploy and recall the firm's knowledge and
lessons learned from past experiences. A centralized "gold
standard" database of relevant valuation information and facts
associated with the due diligence. This database is checked for
data integrity and has limited access with controlled backups.
Underwriting data is centrally stored as is the valuation process
so that all underwriting is not predicated by an onsite presence,
but can be effected remotely.
[0153] While the invention has been described in terms of various
specific embodiments, those skilled in the art will recognize that
the invention can be practiced with modification within the spirit
and scope of the claims.
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